KKHS Mathematics with Statistics Programme

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS - Normal, Poisson, Binomial

Unit #3

Objectives
S8-4 Investigate situations that involve elements of chance:..

applying distributions such as the Poisson, binomial, and normal.

References:

Sigma Textbook

Chapter 17

Nulake EAS Workbook - p116 - 178

You are strongly advised to draw diagrams each time especially if you use the calculator it helps your understanding and helps
communicate your intentions to anyone attempting to follow your work:
shade the area that represents the probability involved
indicate which part of the diagram is found in tables and/or calculator
show any calculations using the tabulated/calculator values: eg 0.5 + tables value or 1 tables value, etc
Objectives

Lesson

Nulake
References

This is mostly revision of what was done at Level 2.

Properties of the Normal Distribution
It is for continuous data.
The distribution is symmetric about the mean. Central data values occur more frequently than others.
Extreme values are increasingly rare, with increasing distance from the mean. About 2/3 of the data
lies within one standard deviation of the mean.
About 95% of the data is within 2 standard deviations of the mean.
About 99% of the data is within 3 standard deviations of the mean.
The whole area under the curve is I unit.
Part of the area under the curve is therefore a fraction and represents the probability with which data
in that part occurs. The part is identified, by using the upper and lower boundary points on the
horizontal axis between which it lies.
1-2
plus
homework
time

Normal
Read
P22-31
Do
#30-40
Inverse Normal
Read
P32-6
Do
#41-44

b
The shaded area represents
P(a < X < b)
the probability of data between a and b occurring

The properties of the Normal Distribution and the Standard Normal Tables (or calculator), can be used
to find probabilities associated with specified data values.
Merit / Excellence - Continuity correction
When data has been rounded to the nearest OR if the data is discrete anyway OR if the Normal
distribution is being used to approximate one of the discrete distributions, care needs to be taken with
boundary values, to make sure specific values are definitely in/not in the area described. The
convention is to go to the midpoint between the two side-by-side discrete data values, where one is IN
and the other is OUT of the required region.

Continuity correction
Read
P37-41
Do
#45-50
Read
P42-44
Do
#50-54

KKHS Mathematics with Statistics Programme

Unit 3 continued
Lesson

Objectives

Nulake References

Probability Distributions distribution is the shape data makes when graphed

When graphed: - area under is equal to 1
- the data values are on the horizontal axis
- the probabilities are shown on the vertical axis
- the data can be continuous or discrete
Modelling real-life situations see p 117-8
Types of distribution see p 119 - 120
3 and 8
plus
homework
time

Probability
Distributions

The rectangular and triangular distributions are part of this standard.

In any probability distribution, the total area = 1
height

height
minimum a

minimum

maximum

Rectangular distribution
Height = 1 (max min)
P(something between a and b happens)
= (b a) x height

Read
P116-125
Do
#1-14

maximum

Triangular distribution
Height = 2 (max min)
P(something between a and b happens)
= (b a) x height 2

The big three commonly occurring probability distributions are treated separately:
The Binomial and Poisson distributions are both discrete distributions (counted data)
The Normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution (measured data).
Conditions for and Properties of a Binomial Distribution
1.
2.
3.
4.

Two outcomes: success and failure

Fixed number of trials, N
Constant P(success) =
Trials are independent (this often has to be assumed to be so)

P(x)

Binomial Probability
Distributions

4-5
plus
homework
time

. . .

. . . .

. . . . n

Use the Binomial formula and/or tables to calculate probabilities

n x
(1 ) n x
x
P(x successes in n trials) =
Mean and Variance of the Binomial Distribution
= n and

2 = n (1-)

no. of successes, X

Read
P7-16
Do
# 4 - 18

KKHS Mathematics with Statistics Programme

Unit 3 continued
Lesson

6-7
plus
homework
time

Objectives
Conditions for and Properties of a Poisson Distribution
1. The event is given as a rate i.e. as an average number of occurrences per region.
2. The region may be a length, an area, a volume, a time interval, etc
3. The number of occurrences is proportional to the size of the region i.e. if the region is
doubled, then the average number of occurrences also doubles.
4. The event is rare i.e. it occurs infrequently
5. Occurrences are not simultaneous (this is often an assumption)
6. Occurrences are independent (this too, is often assumed)

Nulake References

Poisson
Probability
Distributions

P(x)

. . . .

. .

no. of occurrences, X

Read
P17-21
Do
# 19 - 27

Use Poisson formula and/or tables to calculate probabilities

e x
x
P(x occurrences in the region) =

9
plus
homework
time

Mean and Variance of the Poisson Distribution = 2 =

Use Poisson probabilities in conjunction with probability trees and in conditional probability situations
Solve Inverse Poisson problems
i.e. find the average number of favourable occurrences, given the associated probability
Merit / Excellence
Using the Inverse Normal distribution: given a probability of an event happening, find the data values
associated with it. Use the tables backwards
1. Find the given probability IN the body of the tables.
2. Determine the number of z-scores (i.e. number of standard deviations) this corresponds to.
3. Substitute z into this formula and rearrange it to find the wanted value: either a data value,
X; or the mean, ; or the std deviation,

Merit / Excellence
Use tree diagrams and conditional probability principles in conjunction with N-, B-, P- distributed
random variables.
Along tree branches: MULTIPLY probabilities
To include more than one branch: ADD probabilities
Use the given N/B/P-distn to find probabilities for the events X and Y
10
plus
homework
time

Multiply along branches to get P(XX), P(XY), etc

e.g. P(XY) = P(X) P(Y)
Add branch probabilities together to get
combinations of outcomes
e.g. P(exactly one X)
= P(XY) + P(YX)

12
plus
homework
time

Practice assessment-type questions on the Probability Distributions

XX

XY

YX

YY

Combined
N/B/P events
Read P45-48
Do
#55-62
Modelling Real-life
situations
Read p54-8
#73-77

Practice Task
P322-4

This work is assessed externally, however you will get an idea of your progress towards achievement and your likely result, from school exams.