KKHS Mathematics with Statistics Programme

Unit #2

Probability

Objectives
S8-4

Investigate situations that involve elements of chance:

calculating probabilities of independent, combined, and conditional events;
calculating and interpreting expected values and standard deviations of discrete random variables

Text References: Sigma (3rd ed), Chapter 6-9

Nulake EAS Workbook Probability Section pages 62 - 115

Workbook
References

Detail

Lesson

Probability Concepts
Define terms: Random experiment; Trial; Outcome; Sample Space; Event; Random Variable;
Long-run Relative Frequency; Probability; Complementary Events; Independent Events;
Mutually Exclusive Events; Venn Diagrams;
Addition Law: P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)
Mutually Exclusive : when A and B are Mutually Exclusive: P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
and P(AB) = 0
Independent: when A and B are Independent:
P(AB) = P(A) . P(B)
Venn Diagrams
-these can be used to give a helpful picture of some probability situations:
Total probability for a given situation must add up to 1.
1-2
plus
homework
time

In neither A or B

In B only

In A only
Mutally exclusive
Events

In both A and B
Intersection
of Events

Theoretical and
experimental
probability
Pages 63 - 79
Questions
A: 1 - 13
M: 14
E: 15 - 19

Union
of events

Odds
The odds of A winning are 2:1, means that P(A wins) = .
The odds against A winning are 1: 3, means that P(A wins) = .

Probability Trees draw them whenever events are being combined!

Multiply along a branch to get the probability for that branch.
3
plus
homework
time

Add branch probabilities to get the probability of an event that is made up of more than one branch.
All the branches from one point in the diagram, always add up to 1.
The sum of all the branch probabilities is always 1

Tree Diagrams
Pages 80 - 86
Questions
A: 20 24
M: 25 - 30

KKHS Mathematics with Statistics Programme

Unit #2 Continued
Lesson

2
Workbook References

Detail

Conditional Probability
4
plus
homework
time

P(A|B) is the notation for: the probability of A, given B has already occurred.
Most problems are easily dealt with, by first drawing the usual probability tree, then removing
the branches that cannot happen if B is known to have occurred.
At other times, this formula is useful.

Conditional probability
Pages 87 - 93
Questions
A: 31 44
M: 45

P(A|B) =
Venn Diagrams - use them to solve probability problems.

These can be used to give a helpful picture when events overlap.

Remember: the total probability for a given situation must add up to 1.

plus
homework
time

A
In neither A or B
In A only

B
In B only

Venn diagrams
Pages 94 - 102
Questions
A: 46 49
M: 50 57
E: 58 - 59

In both A and B

Multiple selections
6
plus
homework
time

Use the multiplication principle: the number of possible arrangements when combining N 1 items
with N2 items with N3 items.. = N1 N2 N3 ..etc
CHECK that the selection of the first item has no effect on the number of items available for
subsequent selections! Make adjustments if necessary.

Multiple selections
Page 103 - 105
Questions
A: 60 79

See also: Factorial notation, Permutations and Combinations page 3

Two Way Tables
7
plus
homework
time

The rows of the table split the data into two or more mutually exclusive categories.
The columns also split the data into two or more mutually exclusive categories.
Include all row totals and all column totals and the grand total.
If the data is given as probabilities, then the grand total should be 1
If the data is given as percentages, then the grand total should be 100
If the data is given as counts, then the grand total should be the total number of data values

Two Way Tables

Page 106 - 110
Questions
A: 80 81
M: 82 85
E: 86 - 87

This work is assessed externally; however you will get an idea of your progress towards achievement and your likely result,
from both sets of school exams.

KKHS Mathematics with Statistics Programme

Extra Probability concepts

Factorial notation : n!
5! Is a short way of writing 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
and x! = x(x 1)(x 2)(x 3). x 3 x 2 x 1

so

5! = 120
x! is called x factorial

Factorial Arithmetic
1! = 1
0! = 1
8 . 7! = 8!
9! 9 = 8!
4 . 6! + 3 . 6! = (4 + 3) 6! = 7 . 6! = 7! Etc
Factorial arithmetic is used to count the number of ways things might happen and then work out their resulting
probabilities, in situations where the numbers are too large to draw a tree, or count by hand or instance. Such
situations typically involve arrangements or permutations of objects (where order matters) and selections or
combinations of things (where order is irrelevant)

Permutations (or arrangements)

The number of ways n distinct things can be arranged amongst themselves, is n! .
n
Pr is a symbol that stands for the number of different arrangements of
r distinct things, chosen from n distinct things.
n
Pr = n! .
ORDER MATTERS !!
(n-r)!
Circular arrangements: If N things are arranged in a circle, the number of different possible arrangements
relative to each other, is: (N 1)! .
When the N things are not all distinct: If there are N things altogether, but A are of one kind, B are of

Sigma
Chapter 8

Sigma
Ex 8.01
Ex 8.02

N!
A! B !

another kind, etc, then the number of possible different arrangements is:
Combinations (or choices, or selections)
n
Cr is a symbol that stands for the number of different ways n objects can be rearranged amongst
themselves, where r of the objects are all of one kind, and the rest ( n r of them), are of a second kind.
n
Cr is also the symbol that stands for the number of different ways that r objects can be chosen from n

n!
n
Cr = r!(n r )!

distinct objects.
ORDER DOES NOT MATTER !!
Expected Value (Mean) of a Random Variable
Random variable -a variable, say X, whose possible values (x1, x2, x3, ........xi......) are determined by the outcome
of some experiment. These possible values occur with respective probabilities, p(xi) .
Discrete random variables -take their values as the result of a COUNTING process. Continuous random variables
take their values as a result of a MEASURING process. See page 49 for examples
Capital letters, X , are used for the NAMES of random variables (RVs)
Lower case letters, xi , are used to refer to PARTICULAR VALUES of the RV , X .
We only deal with discrete random variables in this work.
The values of a discrete RV and their probabilities, can be displayed in a TABLE.
This is called a probability distribution.
All the probabilities should
Values
x1
x2
x3
x4
etc
add up to 1
i.e.
p(xi)
of the
= 1
variable,
X
probability p(X = x)
p(x1)
p(x2)
p(x3)
E[ X ] is the symbol for the Expected value of X or the MEAN of X
Definition:
E[ X ] = x . p(x)
multiply each x-value by its probability, add up these products, to get E[X].

Sigma
Ex 8.03
Ex 8.04
Ex 8.05

Sigma
Ex 7.01
Ex 7.02
Ex 7.03