Agenda

Session 1
Game 4: VaR for
Individual and
Portfolio

11/30/2014

IMI-Kolkata

Game Four
1. Compute the Value At Risk of Single Stocks using 2 Methods:
1.
2.

Historical Simulation
Parametric

2. Provided is the Data for NSE and BSE Stocks for the Period
2009-12

11/30/2014

IMI-Kolkata

Game Four Single Stock

Step 1: Choose any 2 Stocks
Step 2: Compute the Weekly Returns (choose 2 years)
Step 3: Do Frequency Distribution Plot

Step 4: Compute Mean, Standard Deviation, Coefficient of Variation etc.

Step 5: Compute VaR (99%) using Parametric Method & Historical Simulation

Step 6: Validate the results on year three.

11/30/2014

IMI-Kolkata

Game Four - Portfolio

Step 1: Choose any 8-10 Stocks
Step 2: Compute Steps 2-4
Step 3: Compute the Portfolio Mean, Standard Deviation etc.

Step4: Compute VaR (99%) using Parametric Method & Historical Simulation
Step 5: Validate your results using third year data

11/30/2014

IMI-Kolkata

Parting Thoughts!
Sorry if we Confused You!
We are Learning with you as well.
Developing Default Model Requires knowledge of History,
Institution and Statistics
Model is as good as the Objective Function, Choice of
Explanatory Variables used for Analysis
No amount of data/sophisticated Modeling can rule out
Common Sense.

11/30/2014

IMI-Kolkata