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202-822-1205
Matt McDonald
Russ Grote
Scott Haber
Noah Reichblum
Nominal
400
Adjusted
256,000
jobs per
month
300
200
Adjusted
average
during
expansions
100
0
-100
-200
-300
'09-'15
'07-'09
'01-'07
'01-'01
'91-'01
'90-'91
'82-'90
'81-'82
'80-'81
'80-'80
'75-'80
-400
'73 '75
'70 '73
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job numbers adjusted by December 2015 labor
force.
Fig. 2: Incumbent Parties With Better Pre-Election Job Growth See Better Odds Of Victory
Monthly Average Job Growth Before An Election,
Jan. Oct., Adjusted By Labor Force
500
Target for
incumbent
party
victory
400
300
185,000
jobs per
month
200
100
0
'92
'80
'76
'68
'00
'60
'04
'12
'88
'96
'56
'84
'64
'72
-100
-200
'08
23.2
22.6
18.2
15.4
8.5
7.7
3.9
2.4
-0.2
-0.5
-0.7
-2.1
-5.5
-7.2
-9.8
-300
Margin
of
victory