WILL THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BE THE END?

Abstract
This paper examines the impacts of increase in human population in the world. From the start of
the Industrial revolution population, to now present time, of 7 billion people. By examining the
population situation, I clarify the process by which population growth has affected several
aspects in the world and in the individual life. Food allows human life to be able to continued
living; therefore the high population is increasing the demand for food. Climate and freshwater
has also has an impact because of human population. The demand for a better economic life can
also be impact if human population continues to grow. I use one major research from Lenoir
Rhyne University database called Powersearch. From which I gather data and case studies. I,
hypothesis that the increase of population can lead to the end of all human population and the
world by not having enough resources to sustain human life.

WILL THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BE THE END?

Easter Island, located in the Pacific Ocean, was once a sophisticated civilization.
Scientific research tells us that this island was once covered with forests and had approximately
6,000 to 30,000 people. However, the once great civilization overused its resources and cut
down all its trees. Without the trees, there was no more fuel wood for the houses, canoes for
fishing, fruits to eat, or fiber for clothing. Not only that, but the environment deteriorated as
well. Soil eroded away; less fresh water was available for drinking, and agricultural land
diminished leading to starvation among the people. Eventually, the civilization ended in warfare
and destruction (Withgott, J., & Brennan, S., 2011). Easter Island teaches us one important
lesson: that when the population uses all of its resources, the whole population ends. Today the
earth holds approximately 7 billion people, and the population keeps growing (see figure 1). If
the population keeps increasing, then it will eventually lead to the destruction of the world by
causing food shortage, damage to the environment, lack of water and socioeconomic problems.

WILL THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BE THE END?

Figure 1

Note: This graph demonstrated how population growth has increase thought out the years of 1950 to 2005. The
graph also predicts the future population growth in 2050 if population keeps increasing as it has being in the past
years. The first line one top indicates the year 2050; second line indicates 2005 and the third line 1950. The three
largest population growths are India, China and the United States (Dahl, R., 2005).

When the population increases, the demand for food rises. To eliminate hunger and feed
all the people in the world, farmers would need to produce as much food as has been produced in
the last 8000 years, if not more. The only way the human population can reach these numbers is
if securing adequate food is the top priority. One way to increase the demand for food in every
country is if the productivity growth is at a higher rate than the rate of population growth If not,

WILL THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BE THE END?

countries will have to depend on imports from other countries where food production is higher
than the demand. The reality in the world is that food has always been and will probably
continue to be in short supply in one or the other part of the world. According to Prasad(2013),
the world population clock at the International Rice Research Institute(IRRI), the Philippines is
ticking upward at 2.4 persons per second, at the same time, the global productive land
availability clock is forever ticking downward at one hectare every 6.67 seconds. Seeds are a
great way to increase agricultural production to feed all the people in the world. Countries with
the greatest population like India are not replacing their seeds fast enough. On the amount
needed, there is only 25% seed production in rice, 18% in wheat, 19% in sorghum and 11-16% in
pulses. Indian crops are also being destroyed by the overuse of pesticides on vegetables and
fruits (Prasad, R.,2013). China, one of the most populated countries, has experienced an increase
in food production because of the increase in population. Livestock production has consequently
been in high demand. Pork consumption was increased by about 30% between the years 1990
and 1999; meanwhile, poultry meat more than doubled. Poultry now accounts for about 21% of
total meat production in China. Pork, on the other hand, still makes up around two-thirds of total
meat consumption. China meat consumption will only accelerate as time goes on (see figure 2)
(Fischer, Winiwarter, Cao, Ermolieva, Hizsnyik, Klimont, & Zheng, 2012). Population has
caused problems not only in food but also in the environment.
Figure 2: China consumption of meat and dairy from 1980-1999
Rural

Urban

Year

1980

1990

1999

1980

1990

1999

Pork

8.5

10.9

13.8

17.4

21.6

29.3

Poultry

0.8

1.4

3.3

2.0

3.8

7.8

WILL THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BE THE END?

Eggs

1.5

3.0

6.3

5.5

6
8.9

14.8

Note: Data is represented in percent and collected from Fischer, Winiwarter, Cao, Ermolieva, Hizsnyik, Klimont, & Zheng, 2012

Water is an important part of the growing population in the world. The amount of
freshwater on Earth today is about the same amount as it was 3,000 years ago. The only
difference is that more people are using the same water (Dahl, R., 2005). With water, the basic
needs for human survival are met. With the population growth in the world, agriculture becomes
important. However, water is not being used effectively. Almost one fifth of the worlds
population lives in areas where water is physically scarce. As the demand for food and irrigation
increases, water impoundment falls behind. The north-central Middle East, including portions of
the Fertile Crescent (the Tigris and Euphrates river basins),lost 91.3 giga tons (billion metric tons
or Gt) of groundwater from January 2003 to December 2009. In another area, a smaller region of
the Central Valley of California, water loss from October 2003 to March 2010,amounted to 30.9
Gt of water, essentially the total capacity of the largest reservoir in the US (Lake Mead, holding
32 Gt). Water is being lost not only in small areas but also in large areas. In the larger areas,
water tables are falling. Water tables have declined from centimeters to meters per year. Another
harsh reality is that because of overdrafts for agriculture, some of the worlds largest rivers
(Colorado, Rio Grande, Yellow, Indus, Ganges, Amu Darya, Murray, and Nile) are now
seasonally depleted so that they do not reach the sea. The FAO Expert Meeting on How to Feed
the World in 2050 concluded that agricultural production will have to increase by 70% (nearly
100% in developing countries) by 2050 to cope with the 40 % increase of world population. The
average food consumption will also have to increase to 3,130 calories per person per day. This
means that an extra billion tons of cereals and 200 million tons of meat will be required annually.
Under this scenario, harvested irrigated land would expand by 17%, all in developing countries.
Mainly because of slowly improving water-use efficiency, water withdrawals for irrigation would

WILL THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BE THE END?

grow at a slower pace but still increase by almost 11% (Wyman, R. J., 2013). Not only is the
water being affected, but also everything that lives in these waters is affected. Ocean fishes are
overused. Fish populations have collapsed in many parts of the oceans, and lower-quality fish are
replacing them (Dahl, R.,2005). The increase of population has also led to the damage of the
environment.
Climate change was the cause of human atmosphere pollution. Atmosphere pollution has
spread as it progresses through the release of vast reservoirs of previously locked in greenhouse
gases. Some recent events due to climate change include the extended droughts in the Sahel
region of Africa and the near destruction of New Orleans and Galveston by hurricanes. Another
environmental problem, due to the overpopulated world, would be that the consequences of
global warming (increase in the world sea levels apart) will become even more serious as
permanent ice fields melt. In the final summer, the disappearance of the ocean-based Arctic ice
cap, now increasingly likely by 2018, will have a profound effect on climate behavior over the
whole of the northern hemisphere. The effect on climate behavior will not be the only
consequence that will occur due to the overpopulated world, but Earth will further reduce the
Earths solar reflective albedo effect. The albedo effect will accelerate the melting of permafrost
across the whole of the northern hemispheres tundra belt and release still more quantities of CO2
and CH4 greenhouse gases into the atmosphere (Green, D. R., 2009). Another major reason why
climate change is occurring is emissions from industrialized countries. The poorer countries are
rapidly expanding their industrial capacity as well. Deforestation is another environmental
problem that occurs because of population growth. In 1990, 563,709 square miles of land, which
is equivalent roughly to Colombia and Ecuador combined, were destroyed because of
deforestation. Africa and South America have the highest deforestation because the forests have

WILL THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BE THE END?

being cleared for cropland, fuel use, and commercial sale of wood products. Deforestation may
led to environmental and health problems. This may include an increased propensity for
flooding, loss of medicinal species and fuel wood, soil erosion, and exacerbation of climate
change as carbon is released to the atmosphere (Dahl, R., 2005). Water, being part of the
environment, is also affected.
One of the questions in many scientific minds is if the increase of population has also
caused the increase of homes. The increase of homes also means more space for the homes. To
put this hypothesis to test, research analyzed the historical changes (from 1600 to 2000) in
household size among 213 extant and non-extant nations, territories, colonies and protectorates.
They also compared the growth rates of both population size and number of households during
various time periods. Data were collected from previous research members in the research group.
Historical data were collected from government documents (censuses, statistical abstracts,
yearbooks, and books authored by demographers), and the UNs Demographic Yearbook series.
The data were also compared between developed and developing countries. Japan, Australia,
New Zealand, Canada, the United States and Europe are considered developed. The rest of the
world is considered developing. At first, the household size was declining in developed nations,
but when the twentieth century came, the trend accelerated. The results indicated that the
household size created a demand for nearly a billion new homes. Older people and young adults
have also influenced the number of homes created in the world. Older people are living longer
and maintaining small households longer after their children move out of the household.
Members of the younger generation are moving out of their parents houses and living
independent lives which would require approximately 160 million new households. Another
factor that also plays a role in the increase of households is the rising incidence of divorce. In the

WILL THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BE THE END?

United States alone, 15% of all households had divorced heads in 2000. This means that if the
average household size had been 2.5 people globally in 2010, then the number would have
increased by 41%, making it 800 million additional households. In addition, each household
which occupied a 210 m2 house in 2002 would require an additional 185,800 km2. As more
homes are built, more land is required as well as more household products (Bradbury, M.,
Peterson, M. M., & Liu J., 2014). Household space also increases the amount of energy
consumed in the homes (Dahl, R., 2005). Households might not be the only a problem in the
future:socio economic effects will also pose issues(see figure 30).

WILL THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BE THE END?

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Figure 3: Household Increase thought out the Years

Note: N.A 1- United States and Canada,N.A 2- Mexico,Panama, Trinidad and Tobago,E.A- Japan and South
Korea,SE. A- Philippines,Singapore and Thailand,and Mid. E- Bahrain and Turkey. Source (Bradbury, M., Peterson,
M. M., & Liu J., 2014)

WILL THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BE THE END?

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One of the top priorities in the government worldwide is to be able to provide enough
employment for everyone. Jobs are a main priority because it is the main mechanism through
which each individual gains earnings that will allow that person to spend money and create a
healthy economy. A large amount of unemployment can cause economic and social disturbance.
When the population increases, the demand for more employment increases as well. The World
Bank database indicates that the labor force has grown from 1.9 to 3.2 billion people between
1980 and 2009. The U.S. Census Bureau database indicates that 560 million people are aged 55
to 64 and 1.2 billion are aged 5 to 14. If the average retirement age is at 66 and all the jobs of
retirees are fully occupied by the young, then for the next decade there will be a deficit of 640
million jobs worldwide. Finding new ways to increase labor will remain a major challenge
everywhere. As technology continues to advance and become available worldwide, the demand
for human labor will be reduced. Manual labor will decrease as more computers and machines
are used in the workforce. Labor will also decrease because of the declining natural resources,
especially in land for agriculture, which is the main sector of employment. This challenge will
continue to increase as the population grows (Mora, C., 2014).
Another major challenge that the government needs to overcome due to the increase of
population is the increasing budget debt. Putting all corruption aside from the government, the
conflict between providing basic social security for the young and the elderly without creating a
tax burden on the work force is ultimately leading to increased debt. We rely on the young for
their support in various areas, including financial, and medical, and investment in human capital.
In the United States, the public cost of unintended pregnancies is calculated to be $11 billion a
year. In some cases, where children who feel that they are unwanted may be more likely to drop
out of school and may engage in greater levels of criminal activity. This further adds to the

WILL THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BE THE END?

12

public cost of unintended pregnancies, costs of externalities related to criminal justice, lower
and/or unskilled labor-force participation, and loss of tax revenue. On the other hand, with the
elderly it is a necessity to provide basic services for their welfare after retirement. With the help
of advanced medicine and sanitation, most of the elderly are able to live longer lives. On
average, life expectancy increased from 46 to 69 years between 1950 and 2011.A growing
elderly population is raising the cost of the pension system and welfare services. For the United
States, estimates suggest that the public debt could increase from 55% of the gross domestic
product in 2009 to 128%-321% by 2050 mainly because of mandatory spending on programs
related to Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid (Mora, C., 2014).
Overpopulation could also have an impact on different issues related to health and the
quality of life. The people in the worlds poorest countries are not able to have economic growth
which makes them more likely to continue to live with poverty and hunger. Education for women
is reduced, leading to a cycle of gender inequity. This further leads to the burden of excessive
childbearing and high fertility because uneducated women tend to marry early and have more
unintended pregnancies. High fertility rates in developing countries reduces the share of
maternity health services, thus increasing deaths among mothers and newborns. Population
growth also adds to the impotence of the government to provide health care systems and
facilities for prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases(Mora, C.,2014)
I fail to reject my hypothesis; the increase of population can lead to the end of all human
population and the world by not having enough resources to sustain human life. Therefore,
coming with a solution to this problem is very urgent. One solution would be to educated more
women. Education is a powerful tool that can lead to the increase of population. Another solution

WILL THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BE THE END?

13

would be to elect the right people into the government. The right people in government can truly
make a difference.

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Dahl, R. (n.d). Population Equation: Balancing what we need with what we have. vol. 113, no. 9
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Fischer, G., Winiwarter, W., Cao, G., Ermolieva, T., Hizsnyik, E., Klimont, Z., & ... Zheng, X.
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