Indian Steel Market

Market Value Forecast

Year
Rs. Million Growth
2012 3080529.1
2013 2807800.6
-8.9%
2014 3193558.3
13.7%
2015 E
3555657.9
11.3%
2016 E
3953700
11.2%
2017 E
4419140.7
11.8%
CAGR
Users
Automobiles
Capital Projects
Infrastructure
Consumer Durables
Pipes
Others

Competitors
Revenue (Rs. Million)
JSW
SAIL
TATA

Net Profit (Rs. Million)

JSW
SAIL
TATA

7.50%

22%
22%
18%
10%
6%
22%

2009
2010
2011
151,792.90 194,566.40 258,291.30
486,810.00 439,347.00 470,405.00
271,520.00 276,115.90 330,785.90

2009
4,585.00
61,750.00
52,017.40

2010
20,227.40
67,543.70
50,468.00

2011
17,539.80
49,047.40
68,656.90

Profit margin
JSW
SAIL
TATA

2009
3.0%
12.7%
19.2%

2010
10.4%
15.4%
18.3%

2011
6.8%
10.4%
20.8%

Return on assets
JSW
SAIL
TATA

2009
2.5%
12.6%
9.9%

2010
9.2%
10.7%
8.2%

2011
5.4%
6.6%
8.9%

Debt/asset ratio
JSW
SAIL
TATA

2009
61.5%
31.1%
48.4%

2010
58.3%
52.7%
42.5%

2011
58.3%
50.0%
47.6%

Revenue (Rs. Million)

600,000.00
500,000.00
400,000.00
300,000.00
200,000.00
100,000.00
0.00

2009

2010

2011
JSW

SAIL

2012

2013

2012

2013

TATA

Net Profit (Rs. Million)

80,000.00
70,000.00
60,000.00
50,000.00
40,000.00
30,000.00
20,000.00
10,000.00
0.00

2009

2010

2011
JSW

SAIL

TATA

Profit Margin
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%

2009

2010

2011
JSW

SAIL

TATA

2012

2013

15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%

2009

2010

2011
JSW

SAIL

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

TATA

ROA
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%

2009

2010

2011
JSW

SAIL

TATA

Debt/asset ratio
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%

2009

2010

2011
JSW

SAIL

TATA

Market Volume Forecast (demand)

Year
Demand(Thousand
Growth
2012
77561
2013
80662
2014
85604
2015 E
90612
2016 E
95438
2017 E
100942
CAGR

Thousand Tons
Year
Flat Steels
2012
35000
2013
37000
2014
39000
2015 E
40000
2016 E
41000
2017 E
42000

4.0%
6.1%
5.9%
5.3%
5.8%
5.40%

Value in Rs. Million

2012
367,198.30
503,484.00
384,031.50

2012
5,376.80
35,427.20
66,964.20

5000000
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
02013
2012

382,096.50
450,872.40
428,886.60

120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
2013

2014

2015 E

2016 E

Value in Rs. Million

Demand(Thousand Tons)

120000

140000

2013
100000
9,631.10
23,294.00
80000
50,629.00
60000

120000
100000
80000
60000

40000

2012
1.5%
7.0%
17.4%
2012
1.2%
4.5%
7.2%

20000
2017 E
0

2013
2.5%
0
2012
5.2%
11.8%

40000

20000

20000
2013

2013
1.8%
2.8%
Automobiles
5.1%

2014
Flat Steels

2015 E

2016 E

Long Steels

Custom ers

Consumer Durables

22%

Capital Projects

Infrastructure

Pipes

Others

22%

2017 E
0
2012

2012

Custom ers

2012
63.4%
46.5%
45.3%

Automobiles

Capital Projects

Infrastructure

Consumer Durables

Pipes

Others

2013
69.6%
51.9%
45.8%

22%

22%

6%
10%

22%
18%

Competitors

Top Players in
2012

2013
15%
49%

JSW
SAIL
India
Tata Steel
ESSAR
Bhusan
Others

15%
9%
7%
5%

JSW

2012

2012

2013

2013

SAIL

Tata Steel

ESSAR

Bhusan

Others

15%
15%
9%
7%
5%
49%

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

Demand vs Capacity oTh. Tons

Year
Demand Capacity
2012
77561
80000
2013
80662
91000
2014
85604
103000
2015 E
90612
110000
2016 E
95438
116000
2017 E
100942
124000

Long Steels
42561
43662
46604
50612
54438
58942

Demand(Thousand Tons)
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
2017 E
0

2012

2013

2014

2015 E

2016 E

2017 E

Demand vs Capacity (Th. MT)

140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
2017 E
0
2012

2013

2014
Demand

2015 E
Capacity

2016 E

2017 E

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 E
2016 E
2017 E
2018 E
2019 E
2020 E
2021 E
2022 E

53714
55952
58283
60711
63241
65876
68621
71480
74459
77561
80662
85604
90612
95438
100942
106393
112138
118194
124576
131303

4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.0%
6.1%
5.9%
5.3%
5.8%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%

87300000
WD
million MT

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

1014688442
1053246603
1093269974
1134814233
1177937174
1219164975
1261835749
1306000000
1351710000
1399019850
1447985545
1498665039
1551118315
1605407456
1650358865
1696568913
1744072843
1792906882
1843108275
1894715307
1947767335

1014.688442
1053.246603
1093.269974
1134.814233
1177.937174
1219.164975
1261.835749
1306
1351.71
1399.01985
1447.985545
1498.665039
1551.118315
1605.407456
1650.358865
1696.568913
1744.072843
1792.906882
1843.108275
1894.715307
1947.767335
0

3.80%
3.80%
3.80%
3.80%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
2.80%
2.80%
2.80%
2.80%
2.80%
2.80%
2.80%

84.55737
87.77055
91.10583
94.56785
98.16143
101.5971
105.153
108.8333
112.6425
116.585
120.6655
124.8888
129.2599
133.784
137.5299
141.3807
145.3394
149.4089
153.5924
157.8929
162.3139
0

50501339
52420390
54412365
56480035
58626276
60678196
62801932
0.035 65000000
67275000
72000000
74520000
81000000
83835000
93000000
95604000
106000000
108968000

Indian Contri

5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.1%
5.1%
5.4%
5.4%
5.8%
5.8%
6.2%
6.2%

1287784
1336720
1387515
2592434
2690946
2785129
2882609
2983500
3087923
3304800
3420468
3717900
3848027
4268700
4388224
4865400
5001631

tata steel

0.0013
0.0013
0.0013
0.0023
0.0023
0.0023
0.0023
0.0023
0.0023
0.0024
0.0024
0.0025
0.0025
0.0027
0.0027
0.0029
0.0029

Wip
FG
2575.568 64260.43