Ejercicio Bonificacion

s1
0.8421
$ 1,200,000
a1
f
$ 678,947.3684
s2
i1
0.1579
0.6333
-$ 2,100,000
c
$ 678,947.3684
a2
-$ 300,000
p1
b
-$ 300,000
s1
$ 320,000
0.3636
$ 1,200,000
a1
g
-$ 900,000
s2
i2
0.6364
0.3667
-$ 2,100,000
d
-$ 300,000
a2
a
$ 400,000
-$ 300,000
s1
0.6667
$ 1,500,000
a1
h
$ 400,000
s2
p2
0.3333
-$ 1,800,000
e
$ 400,000
a2
$0
d) Se debe elegir no hacer el estudio(p2) porque la alternativa (p1= $400000)>(p2=$320000),

posteriormente desarrollar y comercializar el producto (a1).
e)
EVwPI=
$ 1,000,000
EVwoPI=
$ 400,000
EVPI=
$ 600,000
Como este valor es mayor que el costo del estudio, entonces quiza vala la pena hacerlo, pero se pudo comprobar que no vala la pena .
No se pidi EVSI, pero su valor debe indicar que es inferior a $300000
EVwSI=
EVwoSI=
EVSI=
$ 620,000
$ 400,000
$ 220,000
Se comprueba que no vala la pena hacer el estudio, porque (valor de la investigacin: $300000) > (EVSI=$220000)
For Evaluation Only
Alternativas para la contratacion
Estados de la naturaleza de la contra

Alternativas para la investigacion
Estados para las predicciones de la
DATOS
Ganancia si se contrata
Perdida si se contrata a M
Costo de la i
Ganancia si no
Probabili
Probabili
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

file:///var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_3/294608754.xlsxwww.TreePlan.com
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as para la contratacion
de la naturaleza de la contratacion
as para la investigacion
para las predicciones de la investigacion
NOMENCLATURA
C1
C2
D1
D2
I1
I2
P1
P2
Contratar a Matthew
No contratar a Matthew
Matthew disee un buen sistema
Matthew no disee un buen sistema
Hacer la investigacion detallada
No hacer la investigacion detallada
Que diga que Matthew diseara un buen sistema
Que diga que Matthew no diseara un buen sistema
Ganancia si se contrata a Matthew y su diseo tiene xito

Perdida si se contrata a Matthew y su diseo no tiene xito
Costo de la investigacion detallada
Ganancia si no se contrata a Matthew
Probabilidad a priori de D1
P()

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stema
n sistema
llada
etallada
eara un buen sistema
diseara un buen sistema

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ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0T
0T

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NS
S1
2
0
0
S2
1
0
0
S3
2
0
0
S4
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0

0
0
0
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Row
Col
4
2
7
Mark
1
5
5

Alternativas para la contratacion

Estados de la naturaleza de la contratacion
Alternativas para la investigacion
Estados para las predicciones de la investigacion
DATOS
Ganancia si se contrata a Matthew y su diseo tiene xito
Perdida si se contrata a Matthew y su diseo no tiene xito
Costo de la investigacion detallada
Ganancia si no se contrata a Matthew
P(I1|D1)
P(I2|D2)
NOMENCLATURA
C1
C2
D1
D2
I1
I2
P1
P2
Contratar a Matthew
No contratar a Matthew
Matthew disee un buen sistema
Matthew no disee un buen sistema
Hacer la investigacion detallada
No hacer la investigacion detallada
Que diga que Matthew diseara un b
Que diga que Matthew no diseara u
tar a Matthew
tratar a Matthew
w disee un buen sistema
w no disee un buen sistema
a investigacion detallada
er la investigacion detallada
ga que Matthew diseara un buen sistema
ga que Matthew no diseara un buen sistema

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Formati disponibili

s1

d) Se debe elegir no hacer el estudio(p2) porque la alternativa (p1= $400000)>(p2=$320000),

For Evaluation Only

Alternativas para la contratacion

Estados de la naturaleza de la contra

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

para las predicciones de la investigacion

Ganancia si se contrata a Matthew y su diseo tiene xito

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only