BUSS1020 Workshop 3 Scribbles

Additive Law of Probability

(1 2 ) = (1 ) + (2 ) + (3 ) + + ( )

Conditional Probability
(1 |2 ) =

(1 2 )
(2 )

2
1 2

Permutations and Combinations

Example 1
Letter
26

Letter
26

Letter
Number
26
10
Arrangements = 264 102

Number
10

Letter
26

Example 2 [ORDER MATTERS]

There are 10 people running for President, Vice president and secretary in an organisation. How many different
arrangements can you have?
10

9
8
Arrangements = 10 9 8 = 720

Example 3 [ORDER DOES NOT MATTER]

There are 40 people trying out to be in a soccer team of 11. How many different arrangements can you have in that
team?
40

11 =

40!
40!
=
11! (40 11)! 11! 29!

(1 2 3 4 ) = (1 ) + (2 |1 ) + (3 |1 2 ) + (4 |1 2 3 )

Law of Total Probability

() = ( 1 ) + ( 2 ) + + ( )
Do you remember?
(|) =

( )
( ) = (|) ()
()

Sub this into the above equation: (substitute with 1 , 2 , 3 , , )

() = (|1 ) (1 ) + (|2 ) (2 ) + + (| ) ( )
Question 4.30
() = 0.05,
(|) =

(|) = 0.80,

( ) = 0.95,

(| ) = 0.40

( )
(|) ()
(|) ()
=
=

()
( ) + ( ) (|) () + (| ) ( )
=

0.80 0.05
2
=
0.80 0.05 + 0.40 0.95 21

Question 4.33
Method 1
() = 0.60 ( ) = 0.40 (|) = 0.40,
(|) =
=

(| ) = 0.30

( )
(|) ()
=
()
( ) + ( )
(|) ()
0.40 0.60
2
=
=
)

(|) () + (| ( ) 0.40 0.60 + 0.30 0.40 3

Method 2
() = 0.60 ( ) = 0.40 (|) = 0.40,

Husband

TV
No TV
Total
(|) =

Wife
TV
No TV
0.36
0.40 0.60 = 0.24
0.28
0.30 0.40 = 0.12
0.36
0.64

(| ) = 0.30

Total
0.60
0.40
1

( )
( ) = (|) () = 0.40 0.60 = 0.24
()
(|) =

( ) 0.24 2
=
=
()
0.36 3