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Assignment A
2,000
2,200
2,100
2,300
2,500
3,200
3,600
4,000
3,900
4,000
4,200
4,300
4,900
5,300
Find out the least square regression line for the data given.
For the data given above assume that forecast for the period 1 was Rs
2,100. If the constant () is equal to 0.3, derive the forecast for the
periods 2 to 14.
Period
Let it
be 'X'
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Total
Count / 'n'
Mean
Sales
(Rs)
Let it X - x
Y-y
be 'Y' (mean)
(mean)
2,000
-6.5
-1464
2,200
-5.5
-1264
2,100
-4.5
-1364
2,300
-3.5
-1164
2,500
-2.5
-964
3,200
-1.5
-264
3,600
-0.5
136
4,000
0.5
536
3,900
1.5
436
4,000
2.5
536
4,200
3.5
736
4,300
4.5
836
4,900
5.5
1436
5,300
6.5
1836
105
48500
14
14
7.5
3464
[(X-x)(Yy)]
(X - x)
square
9518
42.25
6954
30.25
6139
20.25
4075
12.25
2411
6.25
396
2.25
-68
0.25
268
0.25
654
2.25
1339
6.25
2575
12.25
3761
20.25
7896
30.25
11932
42.25
57850
227.5
(total/'n')
Regression line is given as: y = mx + b
M is the slope which can be computed using = (Total of [(X-x)(Y-y)]) / Total of
(X - x) square
= 57850 / 227.5
Therefore slope 'm' = 254.29
therefore point of intercept or regression line = y =
mx + b
= 3464 = 254.29*7.5 + b
b = 3464-1907
Therefore b =
1557/Where 'm' is the slope, 'm' & 'b' provide a best fit line for the data
'Y' is a sales & 'X' is a period
CFBDT
Rs
Rs
Rs
Rs
Rs
10,000
11,000
12,500
13,500
21,000
Payback period
Accounting Rate of Return
IRR
NPV at 10 % discount rate.
Year
CFBDT
Depreciation*
PBT
Taxes @
35%
(A)
(B)
( C)
(D) = (B) (C )
(E)
0
1
2
3
4
5
(50,000
)
10,000
11,000
12,500
13,500
21,000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
1,000
2,500
3,500
11,000
0
350
875
1225
3850
PAT
(F) =
(D) (E)
CFAT
(G) = (F) +
(C )
650
1,625
2,275
7,150
(50,000)
10,000
10,650
11,625
12,275
17,150
Cumulative
CFAT
(50,000)
(40,000)
(29,350)
(17,725)
(5,450)
11,700
Total
11,700
Payback period = Base year +( [unrecoverd cashflow of base year / cash flow of next year
of unrecovered year] * 12)
= 4 + ([5450 / 11700]*12)
there fore payback period = 4 years + 5.5897months = 4 years 6
months
CFBDT = Cash flows before depreciation & taxes
* depreciation - adopted SLM method & no salvage value, therefore
Rs.50000/5 years
(i.e.) Rs.10,000/- at the end of every year
PBT = Profits before taxes
PAT = Profits after taxes
CFAT = Cash flows after taxes
Base year = (just previous year of unrecovered cashflows turns into 0 or
+ve)
(ii) Accounting rate of return : (Average profits after depreciation & taxes / Initial
Investment (net)) * 100
Average profits after depreciation & taxes = Total Profits after tax / no of
years
= 11700 (as could be seen above) / 5 years
= Rs.2340/- per year
Initial investment = Rs.50,000/Therefore, accounting rate of return per year = (Rs.2340 /
Rs.50,000) * 100
= 4.68%
(iv) NPV at 10% discount Rate :
Year
0
1
2
3
4
5
NPV
CFAT
Discount rate *
(refer (i)
@ 10% (TVM)
(50,000)
10,000
10,650
11,625
12,275
17,150
1.000
0.909
0.826
0.751
0.683
0.621
Discounted
cash flows
(50,000)
9,091
8,802
8,734
8,384
10,649
(4,341)
Year
0
1
2
3
4
5
NPV
CFAT
Discount rate *
(refer (i)
@ 5% (TVM)
(50,000)
10,000
10,650
11,625
12,275
17,150
1.000
0.935
0.873
0.816
0.763
0.713
Discounted
cash flows
(50,000)
9,346
9,302
9,489
9,365
12,228
(270)
L2 assumed as 6%
Therefore NPV computed at 6% discount rate as
below:
NPV at 7% discount rate:
Year
0
1
2
3
4
5
NPV
CFAT
Discount rate *
(refer (i)
@ 6% (TVM)
(50,000)
10,000
10,650
11,625
12,275
17,150
1.000
0.943
0.890
0.840
0.792
0.747
Discounted
cash flows
(50,000)
9,434
9,478
9,761
9,723
12,815
1,211
=70.287
=
6.713%
ASSIGNMENT - B
1. (a) What are key issues considered by financial institutions while
appraising a project for term financing?
The primary aspect considered by financial institutions is feasibility of the
project. They review feasibility of the project in the following aspects:
1) Technical aspects (product/service demand, potential etc.,)
2) Commercial aspects (how margins are expected to yield, pricing etc.,)
3) Economic aspects (government rules & regulations regarding such product
or service etc.)
4) Financial implication (source of finances & mode of funding, etc)
5) Managerial aspects (managerial team behind the project/ capability of
management etc)
6) Security going to be offered, repayment terms & capability etc.
7) Time period etc.
1 (b) Discuss the key consideration in determining the debt-equity ratio
of the firm.
Debt equity ratio of the firm:
From managements perspective, Debt funds are always cheaper & it doesnt
result in dilution of control. Raising debt fund enhances the financial risk with
the firm, since obligation towards capital & interest repayments. Debt funds
are secured against assets of the company.
On the other side, Raising fund through equity involves low risk but result in
dilution of control. Repayment arises only in the event of liquidation
Ideal ratio for the firm 2 : 1 (i.e.) a firm can have two times of equity as its
debt funds.
2. What is Performance review and control in respect of the projects?
What are advantages of conducting it? What problems are
encountered in performance review and how can they overcome?
Performance review and control in respect of the projects:
The Performance review & control is undertaken to determine whether all the
planned activities and tasks have been successfully completed and to proceed
further in the project. In simple, this is basically a checkpoint to ensure that
the project has achieved its stated objectives as planned.
Advantages of Performance review: The following can be determined:
Time in weeks
1-2
1-3
2-4
3-4
3-5
4-9
5-6
5-7
6-8
7-8
8-9
8-10
9-10
4
1
1
1
6
5
4
8
1
2
1
8
7
1 - 2 - 4 - 9 - 10
1 -3 -4 -9 -10
1 - 3 - 5 - 7 - 8 - 9 - 10
1 - 3 - 5 - 7 - 8 - 10
1 - 3 - 5 - 6 - 8 - 9 - 10
1 - 3 - 5 - 6 - 8 - 10
4+1+5+7
1+1+5+7
1+6+8+2+1+7
1+6+8+2+8
1+6+4+1+1+7
1+6+4+1+8
Activity
1-2
1-3
2-4
3-4
3-5
4-9
5-6
5-7
6-8
7-8
8-9
8 - 10
9 - 10
17
14
25
25
20
20
duration
Tail
event
Head
event
EST
3*
LFT
4*
4
1
1
1
6
5
4
8
1
2
1
8
7
0
0
4
1
1
5
7
7
11
15
17
17
18
12
1
13
13
7
18
16
15
17
17
18
25
25
Total
EFT
5
(3
+
2)
LST
6
Total
float
7
(4 2)
(6 3)
4
1
5
2
7
10
11
15
12
17
18
25
25
8
0
12
12
1
13
12
7
16
15
17
17
18
8
0
8
11
0
8
5
0
5
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Tail node
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
0+4(EST of head node 1 + duration of activity
1-2)
0+1(EST of head node 1 + duration of activity
1-3)
Highest of (4+1) or (1+1)
1+6 (EST of head node 3 + duration of activity
3-5)
7+4 (EST of head node 5 + duration of activity
5-6)
7+8(EST of head node 5 + duration of activity
5-7)
Highest of (15+2) or (11+1)
Highest of (5+5) or (17+1)
Highest of (18+7) or (17+8)
LFT (in weeks)
(Breakup)
Least of (1-1) or (12-4)
13-1
Least of (7-6) or (13-1)
18-5
Least of (16-4) or (15-8)
17-1
17-2
Least of (25-8) or (18-1)
25 7
Critical path duration
0
4
1
5
7
11
15
17
18
25
Total
0
12
1
13
7
16
15
17
18
25
Case Study
1. Detailed Report:
Introduction:
Any project will have following stages like INITIAION, PLANNING, EXECUTION &
CLOSURE collectively known as the project life cycle.
a) Preliminary Activities to be taken up before a large infrastructure
project can be started:
Proposed project needs to be studied in detail in respect of requirements,
feasible results, assess & select the desired result & obtaining a approval from
project sponsor.
CURRENT SCENARIO:
1) Proposed project: Task of Metro Project
2) Customer: Government of India
3) Requirements: To be completed with in a period of seven years.
4) Feasibility study:
Problem / constraint before me (project manager): to be completed within
a period of seven years
In this regard, Delhi metro project implementation (completed/delivered
with in a targeted time limit) history has been studied. From the study, it is
observed that the reasons that have contributed for completion with in
time schedule & budget is as follows:
a) Funding to the project very well frozen before commencement.
b) Proper & effective systems are put in place to overcome disputes,
corruption Political interference etc., & which has resulted in smooth
progress of the project.
c) Good professionalism & accountability
Solution for the current scenario: Before taking an approval from
Government of India for the metro project task, the issues in respect of
funding, approval for systems etc., needs to be put in place for smooth
implementation; needs to be agreed on, so as to complete the task with a
scheduled period of seven years.
b) Understanding the significance of the role of a project manager in
project execution:
The key objectives for the project manager are:
1. Project Initiation, which include defining the project scope, structure &
approach towards implementation.
Performance
Index (SPI)
Assignment - C
Initiating
Before the project management process
Planning
Executing
a) Project manager.
b) Project expediter.
c) Program coordinator.
d) Program manager.
Answer: (a) Project manager
19. If project A has a net present value (NPV) of Rs 30,000 and project B
has an NPV of Rs 50,000, what is the opportunity cost if project B is
selected?
a) Rs 23,000
b) Rs 30,000
c) Rs 20,000
d) Rs 50,000
Answer: (b) Rs 30,000
20. A project manager is using weighted average duration estimates to
perform schedule network analysis. Which type of mathematical analysis is
being used?
a) Critical path method
b) PERT
c) Monte Carlo
d) Resource leveling
Answer: (b) PERT
21. An activity has an early start (ES) of day 3, a late start (LS) of day 13, an
early finish (EF) of day g, and a late finish (LF) of day ig. The activity:
a) Is on the critical path.
b) Has a lag.
c) Is progressing well.
d) Is not on the critical path.
Answer: (d) Is not on the Critical Path
22. Which phase of the project is likely to have the greatest amount of its
funding spent?
a) Initiating
b) Executing
c) Planning
d) Closeout
Answer: (b) Executing
23. Which of the following represents the estimated value of the work actually
accomplished?
a) PERT analysis
b) GERT analysis
c) Monte Carlo analysis
d) Critical path method
Answer: (c) Monte Carlo analysis
28. Project A has an internal rate of return (IRR) of 21 percent. Project B has
an IRR of 7
percent. Project C has an IRR of 31 percent. Project D has an IRR of ig
percent. Which of these would be the BEST project?
a) Project A
b) Project B
c) Project C
d) Project D
Answer: (c) Project C
29. The program evaluation and review technique (PERT) method of scheduling
differs from the critical path method (CPM) because the PERT method:
a) Uses weighted averages of activity durations to calculate project duration.
b) Uses dummy activities to represent logic ties.
c) Uses free float instead of total float in the schedule calculations.
d) Uses bar charts instead of logic diagrams to portray the schedule.
Answer: (a) uses weighted averages of activity durations to calculate
project duration
30. In attempting to complete the project faster, the project manager looks at
the cost
associated with crashing each activity. The best approach to crashing would
also include looking at the:
a) Risk impact of crashing each activity.
b) Customer's opinion of which activities to crash.
c) Boss's opinion of which activities to crash and in which order.
d) Project life cycle phase in which the activity is due to occur.
Answer: (a) Risk impact of crashing each activity
31.
c) Direct costs
d) Variable costs
Answer: (b) Sunk costs
34. During the project life cycle, in which part of the life cycle will risk be the
lowest?
a) Initiation
b) Planning
c) Execution
d) Closeout
Answer: (a) Initiation
35. A project manager managing any project should perform risk analysis at
what stage of the project:
a) Just before any major meeting with the client.
b) On a regular basis throughout the project.
c) Only when justified by the awareness of new risks becoming a possibility.
d) When preparing the project plan.
e) None of the above
Answer: (b) On a regular basis throughout the project
36. You are the project manager for a high visibility project. The margin on this
project is low, and it is extremely important that the cost estimates for the
work on the project be accurate. While reviewing the cost estimates for this
project you notice that one of the cost estimates for an element in the WBS is
10% higher than two previous projects for very similar work. What should you
do?
a) Accept the estimate because you trust all of the people on your project
team, and they are responsible for estimates.
b) Reduce the estimate and add the additional budget to the management
reserve.
c) Ask the person responsible for the estimate to explain the difference
and bring supporting information to you.
d) Reduce the estimate and add the additional budget to the contingency
reserve.
Answer: (c) Ask the person responsible for the estimate to explain
the difference and bring supporting information to you.
37. The project life cycle differs from the product life cycle in that the project
life cycle:
a) Does not incorporate a methodology.
b) Is different for each industry.
c) Can spawn many projects.
d) Describes project management activities.
Answer: (d) Describes project management activities
38. A manager and the head of engineering discuss a change to a major work
package. After the meeting, the manager contacts you and tells you to
complete the paperwork to make the change. This is an example of:
Identifying changes
Using a work breakdown structure
Implementing corrective actions
Setting up a project control system
a) Completion of design
b) Production of a prototype
c) Training of project members
d) Completed testing of the prototype
e) Approval of a pilot run
Answer: (e) Approval of a pilot run
42. Which of the following are organizational structures used to tie the project
to the parent firm?
a) Pure project
b) Functional project
c) Matrix project
d) Only A and B
e) Only B and C
f) A, B, and C
Answer: (c) Matrix project
43.
a) Slack is defined as the difference between the earliest start and the latest
finish of a task.
b) The critical path seldom has a slack time of zero.
c) Project crashing is an effort to maximize project duration.
d) The earliest finish for a task is equal to the early start plus the task
duration.
e) None of the above statements are true.
Answer: (e) None of the above statements are true
48. There is an activity "A". The earliest activity "A" can be completed is 8
minutes, the most likely time is 10 minutes, and the latest activity "A" can be
completed is 12 minutes. Assume that a Beta Distribution is used to describe
the activity time. What is the expected time needed to complete activity A?
a)
b)
c)
d)
8 minutes
10 minutes
12 minutes
11 minutes