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Volume I, Issue 2
Yields to Life 3
Expectancy
Longevity Market 7
Spreads
Credit Watch 8
Trade Report
Month In Review
Thanks to all of our clients new Receive Industry News
and old for the great feedback from the
launch of our first issue. It seems the con-
sensus out there is that trade data on a If you are interested in receiving
Editor & Publisher monthly basis rather than a bi-monthly basis real-time email alerts for Life Set-
Brian C. Dorr would be more useful to everyone since it is tlement and Premium Finance
Contributing Editors a lot of information to digest every two news. It’s fast and free. Just click
Anne K. Zand weeks. Our trade report will now be pub- on the link below to sign up.
Keith M. Feldman lished only once a month around the 15th
Carline B. Gele and we are also adjusting our subscription
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fee accordingly from $500 per month to
Managing Editor and $250. Those of you that have already sub-
Writer scribed will see this reflected in your billing
David C. Dorr statements.
LIFE-EXCHANGE trade Also many of you asked for a de- about Q1 2009 than Q4 2008 and we’ve cer-
data is published monthly scription of our method for collecting and tainly noticed a significant uptick in volume.
on the fifteenth of each analyzing the data so we have attached to the Many auctions that we advised clients to wait
month. Subscription rate last page of this report a description of our on until the first of the year have been re-
is $250 per month or procedures. vived and many brokers that we speak with
$2,750 for the whole year. We also would like to announce have also indicated that deals that were on
No data herein should be the addition of a medical underwriting team edge last year may be coming back.
construed to be recom- to Life-Exchange. With the dramatic Yields are still very high reflective of
mendations to purchase, changes in life expectancies we feel that is the fact that it is a buyer’s market right now.
retain, or sell securities, or more important than ever to make sure We suspect that yields will drop by at least
to provide investment medical records are reviewed and summa- 100bps over the next 90 days as buyer’s be-
advice of the companies rized by a professional so that when they are come more competitive with one another
mentioned or advertised. submitted to the life expectancy underwrit- again. There is already talk amongst some of
No fees are accepted for ers they are accurately underwritten. I was the bigger buyers of coming in and trying to
publishing any editorial
shocked myself to learn how many errors “buy up” the market. With spreads as wide as
information. LIFE-
can be prevented by taking this simple step. they are right now there is certainly room for
EXCHANGE, its subsidi-
aries, and its employees The last part of the year was quiet a well capitalized player to do just that.
may, from time to time, compared to years past where we usually see We believe this year will be signifi-
purchase, own, or sell funds rush to complete trades and count cant for our market as the bridge between the
securities or other invest- them for their year end. This was no doubt capital markets and insurance markets sees
ment products of the due to the market still digesting the changes more traffic. In that spirit we have repub-
companies discussed or in life expectancies and adjusting their pric- lished here a timely piece that was written in
advertised in this publica- ing models accordingly. 2007 and published in the Journal of Struc-
tion. Our community of buyers and tured Finance.
sellers certainly feel much more optimistic
Copyright @2009 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 3
December Comparitive Yields‐to‐life‐expectancy
17
16
15
14
AVS
R
I/ 13
R
Fasano
ld
e
i 12 21st Services
Y
ISC
11
EMSI
10
8
4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0
2 3 4 6 7 8 9 0 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 0 1 2 4
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
As you can see IRR’s for AVS have lowered back below 21st for Life expectancies above 144 months. The
reason for this is that this data incorporates the changes in underwriting tables from AVS’s latest update from mid No-
vember. Early data for the next issue already suggests that Fasano, EMSI, and ISC IRR’s will continue to come down
as well. We also predict that IRR’s for AVS will continue to drop below 21st for all month ranges as the market contin-
ues to accept the new changes.
Copyright @2009 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 4
Copyright @2009 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 5
Copyright @2009 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 6
Copyright @2009 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 7
20 10yr US Treasuries
15
Spreads in longevity markets are currently drop-
ping after several months near highs of 1400+bps.
10 As you can see our December data suggests IRR’s
are starting to come back down for the first time
5 in 8 months. We believe this is an indication that
buyers are becoming comfortable with the table
0 changes that occurred for both 21st and AVS.
12mo LIBOR
20
Since LIBOR is used as a benchmark to track the
15 cost of borrowing and lending we have included in
10
this chart to track correlations between lower LI-
BOR rates and life settlement IRR’s. It is clear
5 that although rates have been coming down this
has not translated into lower IRR’s in life settle-
0 ments. This is not unique to our asset class as
many borrowers have found it difficult to obtain
financing despite lower rates.
Copyright @2009 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 8
Credit Watch
Credit Watch is a list of Life Insurance Carrier’s that have been placed on “Credit Watch” by the underlining
Rating Agencies. Credit Watch is when an Insurance Carrier has been downgraded or is being watched for possible
downgrade. The Ratings listed below are the latest data from the two rating agencies. All ratings listed can found on the
public Web site of the underlining rating agencies. This information is the most accurate at the time of publication.
Copyright @2009 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Data Aggregation and Analysis Methodology
Aggregation
We acquire data through a multitude of channels and each channel contributes different amounts. For
a breakdown of data sources and the percentage of data each one is responsible for please refer to the
chart on page 2. We look at the data we receive as layers for performing our analysis. Below are the
three types of data layers we use and how we integrate them.
Primary Data Layer
The primary data layer comes from closed and funded transactions that have occurred via Life‐
Exchange, through life settlement providers/ funders that can document actual transactions that have
closed or have underwriting data available on them. We also receive this data from life settlement
brokers, general agencies, broker/dealers, and financial advisors.
To be considered primary data the information must include supporting transaction documentation.
This documentation may include but is not limited to purchase & sale contracts, life expectancy reports,
pricing outputs from Milliman or other in‐house software, verification of coverage both pre and post
closing, escrow agreements, wire verifications, etc.
Secondary Data Layer
Secondary data is typically made up of spreadsheets that contain transaction details within them. We
will conduct random sampling and cross check with other contributors either primary or secondary data
to verify accuracy.
Tertiary Data Layer
Tertiary data is information we gather via phone interviews and through email surveys. This data is the
most difficult to verify but is the most useful for gauging market sentiment and has at times been very
revealing regarding pricing and industry volume.
Composition of Data
Currently the typical composition of data is approximately 35% primary, 45% secondary, 20% tertiary.
Analysis
Analysis of policies and other data is both science and art. When pricing there are a multitude of inputs
that can affect the outcomes. When we analyze the data we will in every transaction possible price
policies using various IRR’s, crediting rates, and with multiple life expectancy reports. There is an infinite
number of ways to crunch the data and as different market preference develop or evolve we will adjust
accordingly.
Data Sources
Life‐Exchange Auction Sales Reports
Life Settlement Providers
Funders and pool owners (also includes lenders and financing entities)
Law firms
Life Settlement Brokers
Service Providers
Life Insurance Settlement Association
State Insurance Departments
Other sources of publicly available information
4% 3% 2%1%
9%
15%
2% 36%
28%
LIFE-EXCHANGE TRADE REPORT
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Copyright @2009 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766