Karissa Smith

Economic Views Impact on Party Feeling Thermometer

Even though the economy has entered the recovery process, the recession continues to
impact Millennials life, and will likely linger for many more years (Council of Economic
Advisors, 2014, 3). Furthermore the overall unemployment rate for young workers between
ages 18 to 34 peaked at over 13 percent in 2010. Since then it has come down 4.7 percentage
points to 8.6 percent in September 2014 (Council of Economic Advisors, 2014, 23). Through
the Millennials it is evident that the condition of the economy greatly impacts individual and
national success. Therefore, researching how economic views affect elections is vital because
voters select from candidates in American elections, and the winner now must act as a voice for
the public as they make decisions that greatly influence public policy. The influence the winning
candidates have on public policy could pave a way for economic success and growth or
economic turmoil.
Also, In November, 2014 the midterm senate elections resulted in shift of the senate
majority from the Democrats to the Republicans. This majority shift of power can lead to various
implications within the government. First of all, Obama has always had a Democratic Senate to
block proposals passed by the House (If the Republicans win the Senate 2014), Second, the
new Congress majority of Republicans could result in no success because of Republicans distrust
of Obama, and they want to hammer home the idea that Democrats are incompetent and big
government always fail (If the Republicans win the Senate 2014). This shift resulted from an
election, and will have great inflictions on the United States and the US people. If an individuals
economic view of the current economy, and their perception of the potential economic policies a
party will impose, do spur a voter to change their feelings toward a party, than researching and

understanding what economic views affiliate with certain parties will help predict the outcome of
future elections. Therefore, the combination of previous research with new data will attempt to
answer the question, how do voters economic views influence voters feeling thermometer of the
republican or democrat party in Congressional Elections?
In this question, a single economic view such as unemployment rates is not described.
Pinpointing a specific independent economic variable has caused problems in previous research,
and thus I will encompass various economic variables into the one unified concept of economic
views (Kinder and Kiewiet, 1979). Different research has focused solely on the economic
condition by using unemployment rates, GDP, and tax levels, and comparing these variables with
voter party support. However, this research does not look at how each individual perceives the
economic conditions, and the individual perception of the economy, rather than statistics can
influence voters feeling thermometers towards a political party. I hope to elaborate on prior
research with an emphasis on what individuals actually think, and know about the economy. An
important hypothesis determined in prior research on economic voting, and referred to in my
research is the Responsibility hypothesis. The hypothesis links the economy by explaining that
voters hold the government responsible for economic events (Lewis-Beck, 2000, 114). Various
different research can stem from the responsibility hypothesis, and I hope expand the hypothesis
to comprehend how individuals economics views relate to their warmth towards either the
Republican or Democratic Party. Also parties have ideologies that lead them to assign different
economic priorities and these differing opinions are likely to cause the Responsibility
Hypothesis to work asymmetrically for parties with different ideologies (Lewis-Beck, 2000,
115). Furthermore, Tversky and Kahneman, have developed the loss aversion theory, which
relates to voters putting more of a weight on economic views and future policies than on their

political attitudes (1991). The theory explains that a greater proportion of voters will vote with a
party that prevents adverse policies, instead of siding with a party that implements satisfactory
policies (Kahneman and Tversky, 1991).Therefore, even if voters identify themselves as a
Republican, if they believe that the Democratic Party plans to avoid an unfavorable tax policy,
then the voter will elect the Democratic candidate. Through my research, I use the aversion
theory to explain that, that even if someone identifies with a party, ones economic view on what
would create an avoidance of unfavorable economic outcomes can be a deciding factor in their
feeling towards a particular political party. Those individuals who do are not on the extreme ends
of the seven point scale for party identification, are most likely the individuals whose feeling
thermometers of the political parties would be affected by the loss aversion theory. Also, an
interesting finding of past research has deemed that high or rising unemployment favors the
Democrats, while high or rising inflation favors the republicans (Arcelus and Meltzer, 1975,
1232). I will attempt to see if high unemployment, causing a poor economic view, actually does
increase favorability to the Democratic Party. Pew research center conducted a study on
economic inequality, and found that people with lower incomes express more positive views of
government programs to the aid poor and that 75% of Democrats agree to an increase in taxes
on the wealthy (Most See Inequality Growing, but Partisans Differ over Solutions 2014). The
findings from this research can help prove which types of policies, and incomes levels
Democrats and Republicans have, which affect their feeling thermometer towards either political
party in Congressional elections. Lastly, I looked at the American National Election Studies data
on public opinion on public policy. ANES gives data from 1980 until 2008 for each of the five
variables I have determined affect economic views. I will expand upon the data, and ANES
questions of public economic policy when discussing the research design. Incorporating all of

these measures into the concept of voters economic views will improve upon the research, and
help determine if voters general economic views influence voters feeling thermometers of the
Republican or Democratic Party.
The key relationship of my theory is between the independent variable of economic
views, and the dependent variable of the feeling thermometer for the Democratic or Republican
Party. The status of the economy, perceived by many Americans through unemployment rates
and tax policies, can have a great impact on their feelings toward the Democratic or Republican
Party. Economic views influences voters feelings towards Democrats and Republicans because
they want to elect a candidate whom they perceive will improve the national economy, as well as
their individual finances. In order to measure economic views I will consider five variables
feelings toward respondents financial situation over the last year, the expected future financial
situation of respondent, condition of nations economy over the last year, the expected state of the
national economy. The dependent variable, the feeling thermometer for Democratic or
Republican Party, will measure attitudes, which are a stable evaluative predisposition to respond
positively or negatively toward some stimulus objet, towards political parties (Jacoby 5). The
decision to use a feeling thermometer, instead of the nominal variable of voter party support, is
due to the increased movement that can be observed through this ordinal variable. Also, past
evidence, specifically found in the 1988 National Election Study, shows the thermometer based
predictions are not only as good as those from state vote intention; they are actually more
accurate (Jacoby 6) Moreover, the feeling thermometer will give us a more accurate
representation of what would actually happen.
Also, as already explained, party identification plays a role in the theory, and the stronger
one identifies with a Democratic, Republican or Independent, the more likely they are to vote for

that party in an election. I will measure individuals party identification using the seven point
scale, which will allow me to consider how strongly the individuals identify with the parties. In
addition, if a voter does not pay attention to the economy, and has no economic knowledge,
which can be described as an inherent understanding of the economic level of the United States,
their economic views will not affect which party they elect. Therefore, identifying that a
relationship subsists between economic knowledge and economic views must occur to prove the
theory. Another key relationship is between income, education, and economic views. The level of
education, which in this case is described as the level of schooling one has, greatly impacts the
income of an individual. In turn, ones personal income greatly affects their economic views,
which is known as pocket voting. Pocket voting means picking a candidate based on the
individuals income at the time. If an individual uses pocket voting they only care about their
personal finances, rather than the economic state of the nation. Moreover, an increased income
would lead to an increased attitude towards the Republican Party. These relationships are all
important to the overall theory that economic views impact the feeling thermometer of the
Democratic or Republican Party in Congressional elections.
I will test this theory using individuals as the unit for analysis. Individuals public opinion
will play a great role in the research proving economic views influence their party feeling
thermometer. Moreover, the research concentrates on Congressional elections. Focusing on
Congressional elections will help avoid the complexities associated with Presidential elections
such as media involvement, and few numbers of actual winners over the past years. Since,
members of congress can continue to be reelected without a term limit, more data and evidence
of exists. Avoiding the addition of more independent variables will allow the research to make a
clearer and stronger relationship between economic views,

Within the theory numerous hypotheses could be tested. Two hypotheses focus on the
relationship between economic views, and the feeling thermometer of the Republican and
Democratic Party. The first hypothesis is that a voters positive economic view decreases feelings
towards the Democratic Party in Congressional elections. This hypothesis stems from belief that
a positive perception of the economy would mean that the individual approved of the policy, had
good personal finances, and thought the economy was well off. With this positive perception, a
decrease in warmth towards the Democratic Party would occur for several reasons, including
personal wealth that leads to a desire for lower tax policies, which are a Republican ideal. Also,
the Democratic Party wants to be more involved with the economy than the Republican Party, so
if the economy was doing well people may feel less inclined to relate to the Democrat Partys
want for government intervention. The second hypothesis is that a voters negative economic
view increases feelings towards the Democratic Party in Congressional elections. This
hypothesis conjectures that negative views of the economy would lead to an economic state of
high unemployment and low personal incomes. This view would beg for an increase in
government intervention to eradicate the unemployment level, and increased taxes for the
wealthy to decrease the income inequality gap. Another potential hypothesis is between the
relationship of income, and party feeling thermometer. Moreover, the hypothesis is that a lower
level of income will lead to a warmer feeling of the Democratic Party because their income
would affect the economic policies they support, and the Democratic Party has more policies that
favor those of the lower income bracket. There are many other hypothesis that could be formed
from the overall theory, and I will attempt to test these relationships through my research design.
I will use a survey experiment, in order to test my hypotheses. This research design will
include three randomized groups, one of which will be the control, and the other two which will

receive different treatments. The population I am attempting to explain is Americans voting in

Congressional Elections, and will use telephone surveys to gather data. I will use telephone
surveys because of the CATI, computer assisted telephone interviews, which will allow for easy
data processing. Also a simple random assignment of individuals to the three control groups by
having each caller directed towards a certain survey will allow for simple randomization. Due to
the possible selection bias involved with phone surveys, due to the do not call list and other
factors, I hope to survey at least 1000 people. The control group will be asked general questions,
including their age, income, education party identification, and feeling towards Republicans and
Congressional elections, and feelings towards Democrats in general elections. Treatment Group
A will receive the same set of questions as the control group, but will also be asked five
questions on their economic views.
The American National Election Studiesprovides data and graphs on the answers to the
individuals feelings on the five principles that affect economic views. When asking individuals
opinions on the condition of the nations economy I will use ANES question wording of would
you say over the past year the nations economy has gotten, worse, stayed about the same, or
gotten better, and then create a cross tabulation between the three answer choices and
individuals answers (ANES 2000). In 2008, ANES reported that 90 percent of the people
surveyed believed the economy had gotten worse. I would hope to make similar reports as to
what individuals think today. ANES also has the question wording and past results for the four
other categories affecting economic views. For the expected national economy, I would ask "Do
you expect the economy, in the country as a whole, to get worse, stay about the same, or get
better?" (ANES 2000). For personal finances currently and in the future I would use the same
question as I did for the national economy, and just substitute personal finances for the national

economy. Lastly, to see how an individual perceived the economic policies of the year I would
ask, Over the past year would you say that the economic policies of the federal government
have made the nation's economy better, worse, or haven't they made much difference either way?
(IF BETTER/WORSE:) Would you say the economy is much better/worse or
somewhat better/worse?" (ANES 2000). Using a national election study question wording, I
hope to eliminate problems from ambiguous, double-barred or leading questions.
As mentioned earlier, determining how economic knowledge affects economic views is a
relationship needed to prove the main theory, and main hypothesis. In order to achieve this,
treatment group B will receive an excerpt of information containing the current GDP,
unemployment, and tax rates of the current and prior year. I can compare this group to treatment
group A, and the control to see if increasing an individuals knowledge of the economic state
change his or her attitudes towards the political parties. I hope that the internal validity of the
experiment aspect, and external validity of the survey aspect will allow for the findings to be
valid.
Overall, my results discovered in the survey experiment should reject the null hypothesis
that economic views do not influence party feeling thermometer. Therefore, explaining that
individuals perceptions have an impact on their attitudes toward political parties in
Congressional elections. This research is generalizable for other nations who have a two-party
democracy, but may be hard to generalize towards different forms of governments. As seen in the
prior research, findings about economic voting and impact on elections date far back. My
research will update these past findings, but also create a theory that could be used in future time
periods, or to look retrospectively at past time periods. If I wanted to continue my research I

could make the theory into multiple more specific theories. By doing this I could analyze exactly
what economic policies affect individuals economic views.

Works Cited
Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior. ANES 2000. Web. 24 April 2015. <
http://www.electionstudies.org/nesguide/gd-index.htm>

Council of Economic Advisers. 15 Economic Facts About Millennials. Executive Office of the
President of the United States.October 2014.Web. 24 April 2015. <
https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/millennials_report.pdf>

If Republicans win the Senate. The Economist. 18 October 2014. Web. 24 April 2015. <
http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21625788-two-scenarios-next-two-years-ifrepublicans-win-senate>

Jacoby, William. RE: Feeling Thermometer. Message to Participants in the NES Conference on
Candidate Evaluation, and the NES Board of Overseers. 14 November 1994. Email. <
http://www.electionstudies.org/conferences/1994Candidate/1994Candidate_Jacoby.pdf>

Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. 1991. Loss Aversion: in Riskless Choice: A ReferenceDependent Model. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 106,4(November):1039-1061.
http://www.jstor.org/stable/2937956

Kinder, R. Donald, and D. Roderick Kiewiet.1979.Economic Discontent and Political Behavior:

The Role of Personal Grievances and Collective Economic Judgments in Congressional Voting.
American Journal of Political Science. 23(August):495-527. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2111027

Lewis-Beck, Michael. Economic Voting: An Introduction. Electoral Studies. 19(2000) 113121.Web. 24 April 2015. < www.elsevier.com/locate/electstud>

Most See Inequality Growing, but Partisans Differ over Solutions. PEW Research Center.
January 2014. Web. 24 April 2015. < http://www.people-press.org/2014/01/23/most-seeinequality-growing-but-partisans-differ-over-solutions/>

How does voters economic views influence voters feeling

thermometers of the Democratic or Republican Party in
Congressional Elections?

Feeling
Thermom
etor of
Political
Party