1 Jan 2010

Booz & Company

31 March 2011

INESTA - First Interim Report - Part I.ppt

Note:
Term price based on 2008-09 SOMO data by crude-market
Source: Booz & Company analysis

Basra light term prices across markets has been volatile

The most advantaged market from a term price perspective
frequently changes
On average in 2008-2009, Asia appeared to be the most
advantaged market followed by USA and Europe

Basra Light Grade

1 Jul 2009

1 Jul 2008

Prepared for PMAC

72

1 Jan 2010

Kirkuk-USA

Kirkuk-Europe

1 Jul 2009

Kirkuk Grade

1 Jan 2009

$74.25

$75.36

Similar to Basra Light, Kirkuk term prices have been

volatile
For most of the 2008-2009 time period, term prices
indicate Europe to be more advantaged than the US

1 Jan 2008

1 Jan 2009

20

20

1 Jul 2008

40

40

1 Jan 2008

60

100

60

Basra-Europe

$71.73

120

140

80

Basra-USA

$72.42

Basra-Asia

80

100

120

140
$74.68

2008-2009

USD/barrel

2008-2009

USD/barrel

Kirkuk Average Monthly Term Prices

Avg.

Basra Light Average Monthly Term Prices

In 2008-09, the relative term prices for Iraqi grades across its key
markets have been volatile
To Be Revisited Once 2010 Data Is Made Available

Avg.

BOT

BOT

Kirkuk

Kirkuk

Basra
Light

Basra
Light

CEY

Europe

USA

USA

Europe

Asia

Market1

($1.00)

($1.00)

71.73

72.42

73.25

74.36

74.68

Net
Revenue

$73.60/bbl

$71.73

$72.42

$74.25

$75.36

$74.68

Term
Price3

2010 Weight Average Net Revenues

ARA

LOOP

ARA

ARA

SNG

Delivery
Point

0.0

71.5

72.0

72.5

73.0

73.5

74.0

74.5

75.0

INESTA - First Interim Report - Part I.ppt

74.68
74.36

73.25

72.42
71.73

Average
Net Revenue
$73.6/bbl

73

Export volumes by market estimated from 2010

Kirkuk and Basra Light aggregate export volumes and
2010 Term Contract Volume

Estimated 2010 Export Volumes (mmbpd)

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

Prepared for PMAC

Benchmark Crudes: US ASCI, Europe-Brent, Asia-AVG(Dubai, Oman)

Kirkuk exported from CEY = $1.0/bbl (historical transit fees ~$0.5/bbl).
Term price based on 2008-09 SOMO data by crude-market
Analysis based on contractual volumes in 2010 and not actual delivered volumes in 2008/2009 due to unavailable data
SOMO Data, Bloomberg Data and Booz & Company analysis

Booz & Company

31 March 2011

1)
2)
3)
4)
Source:

BOT

Basra
Light

CEY

Export
Point

Grade

Net Revenues (USD/barrel)

USD/barrel, 2008/2009 net revenues, 2010 export volumes

USD/barrel, 2008-2009
Pipeline
Transit
Cost2

Crude Oil Net Revenue/Volume Curve4

Crude Oil Netback Calculations

To Be Revisited Once 2010 Data Is Made Available

Asia and Europe appear to have generated the highest net revenues
per barrel of Basra Light and Kirkuk in 2008-2009