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PROJECT MANAGEMENT

PHASES
PHASE II:
(PLANNING THE PROJECT- 4 RISK
MANAGEMENT)

PLANNING FOR PROJECT RISKS

A RISK IS AN EVENT THAT MAY OCCUR AND WHICH COULD HAVE A POSITIVE OR
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE PROJECT

- POSITIVE RISKS = OPPORTUNITIES


- NEGATIVE RISKS = DANGERS OR THREATS THAT MAY JEOPARDIZE THE PROJECT
GOALS

PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT IS ABOUT CONDUCTING RISK MANAGEMENT PLANNING,


IDENTIFICATION, ANALYSIS, RESPONSES AND CONTROL ON A PROJECT, WITH A VIEW
TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY AND IMPACTS OF POSITIVE EVENTS ON THE ONE
HAND, AND DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND IMPACT OF ADVERSE EVENTS ON THE
OTHER

MANAGING RISK IS AN ESSENTIAL FEATURE OF OVERALL PROJECT PLANNING. IT IS


IMPERATIVE TO ATTEMPT TO IDENTIFY TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE DURING
THE PROJECT PLANNING PHASE THE RISKS WHICH MAY OCCUR AND THE COSTS
WHICH MAY RESULT.

RISK EVENT GRAPH

RISK

COST

HIGH

COST TO FIX RISK


EVENT

CHANCES OF
RISKS
OCCURING

LOW

PROJECT LIFE CYCLE


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THE RISK MANAGEMENT


PROCESS
STEP 1: RISK IDENTIFICATION
Analyze the project to identify sources of risk
Known Risks
New Risks

STEP 2: RISK ASSESSMENT


Assess risks in terms of (a) severity of impact
(b) Likelihood of occurring, and (c) controllability
Risk Assessment

New Risks

New Risks

STEP 3: RISK RESPONSE DEVELOPMENT


Develop a strategy to reduce possible damage, and
Develop contingency plans
STEP 4: RISK RESPONSE CONTROL
Implement risk strategy, monitor and adjust plan for
new risks, change management

Risk Management
Plan

SOME TYPES OF PROJECT RISKS


PROJECT RISKS ARE PROJECT SPECIFIC AND CAN BE CLASSIFIED INTO
VARIOUS TYPES, FOR EXAMPLE:
1.

MACRO RISKS RISKS WHICH AFFECT THE PROJECT AS A WHOLE

2.

MICRO RISKS RISKS WHICH EFFECT SPECIFIC PORTIONS OF A


PROJECT, FOR INSTANCE, ONE OR MORE DELIVERABLES OR WORK
PACKAGES

3.

EXTERNAL RISKS RISKS WHICH ARE OUTSIDE THE CONTROL OF THE


PROJECT MANAGER AND ORGANIZATION, FOR INSTANCE, THE ECONOMY
AND MARKET PLACE, THE POLITICAL AND SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT
WBS IS AN IMPORTANT FRAMEWORK OF REFERENCE FOR IDENTIFYING
RISKS.

POPULAR TECHNIQUES FOR


IDENTIFYING PROJECT RISKS

ANALYZING THE PROJECT SCOPE AND CHARTER, PROJECT WBS, PROJECT


SCHEDULE ETC

RISK PROFILING

HISTORICAL RECORDS

BRAINSTORMING

DELPHI TECHNIQUE

INTERVIEWING

ROOT CAUSE IDENTIFICATION

STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES, THREATS (SWOT) ANALYSIS

RISK IDENTIFICATION CHECKLISTS

COMMERCIAL DATABASES AND INDUSTRY STUDIES


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ANALYZING AND ASSESSING


RISKS
AFTER PROJECT RISKS HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED, THEY MUST BE PRIORITIZED IN ORDER
TO DETERMINE WHICH RISKS MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE
PROJECT, AND WHICH RISKS MAY NOT. PROJECT MANAGERS USE BASIC TYPES OF
TECHNIQUES LIKE RISK ASSESSMENT FORMS, RISK SEVERITY MATRIX AND RISK
VALUE ANALYSIS FOR THE PURPOSE.

RISK EVENT

LIKELIHOOD

IMPACT

DETECTION
DIFFICULTY

WHEN

INTERFACE
PROBLEMS

CONVERSION

SYSTEM
FREEZING

START-UP

USER
BACKLASH

POSTINSTALLATION

HARDWARE
MALFUNCTIONING

INSTALLATION

RISK ASSESSMENT FORM

RISK SEVERITY MATRIX


5
USER
BACKLASH

4
LIKELIHOOD

INTERFACE
PROBLEMS

RED ZONE
(MAJOR RISK)

3
SYSTEM
FREEZING

HARDWARE
MALFUNCTIONING

YELLOW ZONE
(MODERATE RISK)

GREEN ZONE
(MINOR RISK)

IMPACT

IMPACT X PROBABILITY X DETECTION = RISK VALUE

RESPONDING TO RISKS
1. RISK MITIGATION RISK MITIGATION CAN BE DONE BY TWO METHODS
1. REDUCE THE LIKLIHOOD THAT THE EVENT WILL OCCUR.
i.e. BEFORE INSTALLATION, A TEAM TESTS NEW SYSTEM ON AN ISOLATED NETWORK.
2. REDUCE THE IMPACT THAT THE ADVERSE EVENTS WOULD HAVE ON THE

PROJECT.

i.e. HAVE A NUMBER OF SUPPLIERS DISTRIBUTED ON DIFFERENT LOCATIONS.

2. RISK AVOIDANCE AVOIDING THE RISK IS CHANGING THE PROJECT PLAN TO ELIMINATE RISK
OR CONDITIONS.
i.e. ADOPTING PROVEN TECHNOLOGY INSTEAD OF NEW TECHNOLOGY.

3. RISK TRANSFERENCE THIS ENTAILS SHIFTING THE ADVERSE IMPACT OF A RISK, AND THE
RESPONSIBILITY FOR DEALING WITH IT, TO A THIRD PARTY (THIS TRANSFER HOWEVER DO NOT
CHANGE RISK). EXAMPLES INCLUDE INSURANCE CONTRACTS AND GUARANTEES.

4. RISK SHARING THIS ENTAILS SHARING PROJECT RISKS


AMONGST DIFFERENT PARTIES. EXAMPLES INCLUDE FORMATION
OF CONSORTIUMS TO SHARE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT RISK
IN LARGE ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS.

5. RISK RETENTION IN SOME CASES A CONSCIOUS DECISION IS


MADE TO ACCEPT THE RISK OF AN EVENT OCCURING. IN SUCH
CASES PROJECT OWNER ASSUMES THE RISK i.e. FLOODS,
EARTHQUAKES e.t.c.

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CONTINGENCY PLANNING

A CONTINGENCY PLAN IS AN ALTERNATIVE PLAN THAT WILL BE


USED IF A POSSIBLE FORSEEN RISK BECOMES A REALITY
THE CNTINGENCY PLAN WILL REDUCE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF A
RISK EVENT
CONTINGENCY PLAN ASKS THE QUESTIONS OF WHAT, WHERE,
WHEN AND HOW MUCH ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE
ABSENCE OF IT CAN DELAY A MANAGEMENT ACTION WHICH MIGHT
RESULT IN PANIC
CONTINGENCY PLAN SHOULD BE COMMUNICATED TO AND
ENDORSED BY ALL PROJECT STAKEHOLDERS IN ADVANCE AND
SHOULD ALSO INCLUDE AN ESTIMATION OF THE COST

CONTINGENCY FUNDS-EXTRA RESERVES ARE USED FOR THIS


PARTICULAR PURPOSE

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RISK RESPONSE MATRIX


RISK EVENT

RESPONSE

CONTINGENCY TRIGGER
PLAN

WHO IS
RESPONSIBLE

INTERFACE
PROBLEMS

REDUCE

WORK AROUND
UNTIL HELP
COMES

NOT SOLVED
WITHIN 24
HOURS

SYSTEM
FREEZING

REDUCE

REINSTALL OS

STILL FROZEN
AFTER ONE
HOUR

USER
BACKLASH

REDUCE

INCREASE
STAFF SUPPORT

CALL FROM TOP


MANAGEMENT

ERUM

EQUIPMENT
MALFUNCTIONS

TRANSFER

ORDER
DIFFERENT
BRAND

REPLACEMENT
DOES NOT
WORK

ALI

ADEEL

SULTANA

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RISK RESPONSE CONTROL


Change
Originates

IT MEANS EXECUTING THE


RISK
RESPONSE
STRATEGY, MONITORING
TRIGGERING
EVENTS,
INITIATING CONTINGENCY
PLANS AND WATCHING
FOR NEW RISKS
SOME
ORGANIZATIONS
MAINTAIN
A
RISK
REGISTER
IN
WHICH
ANYTHING PERTAINING TO
CHANGE AND RISK IS
RECORDED
CHANGE
MANAGEMENT
SYSTEM IS ESTABLISHED
WHICH RECORDS EVERY
CHANGE MINUTELY

Change
Request
Submitted

Review
Change
Request

No

Approved
?
Yes
Update Plan
of Record
Distribute for
Action

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