Proiect Econometrie

Celu Mihaela
Seria
A, Grupa 637, CIG

Relatia dintre productia agricola vegetala, numarul

de tractoare agricole si suprafata cultivata
x1=productia
agricola
vegetala
717510
117792
238858
89423
418350
110535
251813
127233
154950
78566
447730
147662
426404
552174
509882
417002
254512
420511
903395
745492
1295890
710153
514434
401670
468379
1195667
409141
686237
962783
402240
1064515
115785

x2=nr
tractoare
agricole
fizice
9802
2602
5147
4955
6458
3199
3566
4654
3837
2985
6156
2855
3094
2735
3272
2614
5132
3472
3550
3233
4316
3595
2690
3316
4101
4103
5768
4281
3508
2622
7772
1243

y=suprafata
cultivata

Judet

164085
37809
64091
27531
109960
72569
60535
34029
42943
28305
107519
36742
91541
150661
141569
91437
78837
120786
189369
180426
298349
202218
145757
98739
116997
266574
106882
158212
207830
100224
271476
29769

bihor
Bistria-Nsud
Cluj
Maramures
Satu Mare
Salaj
Alba
Brasov
Covasna
Harghita
Mures
Sibiu
Bacau
Botosani
Iasi
Neamt
Suceava
Vaslui
Braila
Buzau
Constanta
Galati
Tulcea
Vrancea
Arges
Calarasi
Dambovita
Giurgiu
Ialomita
Prahova
Teleorman
Ilfov

39
981885
306263
367969
832171
348487
929607
182569
119986
1416496

51
7409
3140
3505
6527
3044
7125
6172
5005
10453

13
297205
79196
112195
238785
64268
225522
47942
30791
329315

Bucuresti
Dolj
Gorj
Mehedinti
Olt
Vilcea
Arad
Caras-Severin
Hunedoara
Timis

SUMMARY
OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
0.9798457
Multiple R
66
0.9600977
R Square
25
Adjusted R
0.9580514
Square
54
17577.232
Standard Error
76
Observations
42

ANOVA
df
Regression

Residual

39

Total

41

SS
2.89923E+1
1
1204940535
4
3.01973E+1
1

MS
1.44962E+11
308959111.7

F
469.1939
355

Significanc
eF
5.24149E28

Ecuatia dreptei de regresie este:

y = 0.2267x1+1.9160x2+4354.359, unde
a=4354.359 si b1=0.2267, b2=1.9160. B>0, deci exista o legatura directa .
- nu este semnicativ statistic, P value>0.05, si nici x2, dar x1( productia agricola
vegetala) este semnificativ
De asemenea, intervalele de incredere ptr si x2 include valori nule, deci nu sunt
semnificativi statistic, sau nu sunt semnificativi diferiti de zero. Dar intervalul de
incredere ptr X2 este semnificativ statistic.
Significance F<0.05, deci modelul este valid, sau corect identificat din punct de
vedere statistic.
Muliple R=0.97, deci exista o legatura foarte puternica, directa si liniara intre cele 3
variabile.
R square=0.96, deci suprafata cultivata influenteaza in proportie de 96% numarul
de tractoare agricole si productia agricola vegetala.

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observati
on
1

Predicted
y=suprafata
cultivata
185810.1449

36045.83043

68370.37376

34122.37804

111576.9685

35544.3802

68278.31358

Residuals

Standard
Residuals

21725.14
492
1763.169
573
4279.373
757
6591.378
044
1616.968
517
37024.61
98
7743.313
581

1.267277
73
0.102849
741
0.249625
73
0.384490
26
0.094321
5
2.159731
331
0.451685
31

42117.99209

46836.63741

10

27886.29292

11

117659.4048

12

43302.7544

13

106957.4729

14

134784.3756

15

126224.7781

16

103906.1456

17

71890.73084

18

106345.6611

19

215975.2683

20

179567.8922

21

306429.9766

22

172249.3844

23

126141.6872

24

101775.1024

25

118403.5432

8088.992
091
3893.637
408
418.7070
835
10140.40
478
6560.754
398
15416.47
291
15876.62
442
15344.22
193
12469.14
562
6946.269
162
14440.33
887
26606.26
829
858.1078
029
8080.976
569
29968.61
56
19615.31
282
3036.102
43
1406.543

0.471849
54
0.227124
84
0.024424
148
0.591513
16
0.382703
91
0.899278
36
0.926120
062
0.895063
799
0.727353
98
0.405191
876
0.842338
219
1.552004
9
0.050055
404
0.471381
97
1.748138
358
1.144206
366
0.177102
85
0.082046

26

283299.16

27

108167.0331

28

168141.5079

29

229359.3283

30

100574.6119

31

260594.0872

32

32986.92171

33

4460.919083

34

241164.5771

35

79807.06924

36

94496.49192

37

205531.2684

38

89196.21698

39

228767.8822

40

57572.3767

41

41147.46678

247
16725.15
996
1285.033
089
9929.507
931
21529.32
825
350.6118
885
10881.91
279
3217.921
707
4447.919
083
56040.42
29
611.0692
355
17698.50
808
33253.73
155
24928.21
698
3245.882
249
9630.376
702
10356.46
678

91
0.975617
09
0.074958
94
0.579211
06
1.255855
29
-0.020452

0.634767
031
0.187708
78
0.259457
36
3.268966
913
0.035645
08
1.032394
731
1.939766
736
1.454120
3
0.189339
79
0.561762
05
0.604116
56

42

345532.592

16217.59
198

0.946009
48

f(x)
=
350000
R = 0
300000
250000
y=suprafata cultivata

Linear (y=suprafata cultivata)

200000
150000
100000
x1=productia agricola vegetala
50000

x2=nr tractoare agricole fizice

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50