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Defiance Capital Management

U.S. Economic Dashboard

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.


2/8/2010
National Output & Inventories
USA GDP
20% $16,000
USA Nom inal and Real GDP
15% $14,000
$13,389.2
$12,000

GDP in Billions of USD


10%

3.08%
$10,000
Annual %∆

5%

0.44%
$8,000
0%
'29 '34 '39 '44 '49 '54 '59 '64 '69 '74 '79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 $6,000

-2.43%
-5%
$4,000

-10% $2,000

-15% $0

Annual Real GDP %∆ Nominal GDP Real GDP

Quarterly 8.0% 6.0%


Date %∆ Real GDP Grow th
03/31/07 0.30% 6.0%
06/30/07 0.79% 4.0%
09/30/07 0.89% 4.0%
12/31/07 0.53%
2.0%
Annualized Q.%∆

03/31/08 -0.18% 2.0%

Annual %∆
06/30/08 0.36%
09/30/08 -0.68%
0.0% 0.0%
12/31/08 -1.37%
Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10
Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
03/31/09 -1.65%
-2.0%
06/30/09 -0.18% -2.0%
09/30/09 0.55%
-4.0%
12/31/09 1.40%
03/31/10 0.79% -4.0%
-6.0%
06/30/10 0.62%
Annualized Q. %∆ Annual %∆
09/30/10 0.69%
-8.0% -6.0%
12/31/10 0.67%

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.


2/8/2010
National Output & Inventories
ISM and PMI Indices
70% 1.6% 70%
ISM Reports - Manuf. and Business Activity Indices
65% ISM Index, Chicago PMI and Monthly ∆% LEI
65%
1.2%
60%
60%

%
70
55% 0.8%

0.
55%
50%
0.4% 50%
45%
45%
40% 0.0%

Jan-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10
Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09
35% 40%
-0.4%
30% 35%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
-0.8% 30%
ISM PMI Index Biz Act. Index Monthly ∆% LEI ISM PMI Index Chicago PMI

ISM index vs. Chicago PMI Index


65% 65%

55% 55%

45% 45%

35% 35%

25% 25%
Jan-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10
Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

ISM PMI Index Chicago PMI

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.


2/8/2010
National Output & Inventories
Factory Orders & Shipments
18%
Manufacturing: New Orders and Shipment
14%
10%
6%
2%
-2%
Yr %∆

-6%
-10%
-14%
-18%
-22% New Orders Shipments
-26%
Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10
Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09
Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.
2/8/2010
Mo %∆

2/8/2010
Mo %∆

-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%

-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
J an -0 7 J a n -0 4
A p r-0 4
A p r- 07 J u l-0 4
O c t-0 4
J a n -0 5
J u l-07
A p r-0 5
J u l-0 5
O c t- 0 7
O c t-0 5

Mo% ∆ of NOA_MNF
J a n -0 6

Mo% ∆ of NOA_MNF
J an -0 8 A p r-0 6
J u l-0 6
A p r- 08 O c t-0 6
J a n -0 7
J u l-08 A p r-0 7
J u l-0 7

Yr% ∆ of NOA_MNF
New Orders for All Manufacturing

Mo% ∆ of NOA_MNF Ex-Trans


O c t- 0 8 O c t-0 7
J a n -0 8
J an -0 9 A p r-0 8
J u l-0 8
A p r- 09
O c t-0 8
J a n -0 9
A p r-0 9
J u l-09
J u l-0 9
O c t-0 9
NO for All Manufacturing and All Manufacturing Ex-Transportation

O c t- 0 9
J a n -1 0
0%
5%

-5%

J an -1 0
10%
15%
20%

-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%

Yr % ∆

Mo %∆
Mo %∆
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%

-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%

J a n -0 4
J an -0 7
A p r-0 4
M a r- 07
J u l-0 4
M a y -0 7 O c t-0 4
J a n -0 5
J u l-07
A p r-0 5
S e p - 07 J u l-0 5
Factory Orders & Shipments
National Output & Inventories

N o v-0 7 O c t-0 5
J a n -0 6
J an -0 8
A p r-0 6

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.


M a r- 08 J u l-0 6
Mo% ∆ of SHA_MNF
Mo% ∆ of SHA_MNF

M a y -0 8 O c t-0 6
J a n -0 7
J u l-08
A p r-0 7
S e p - 08 J u l-0 7
N o v-0 8 O c t-0 7
J a n -0 8
Yr% ∆ of SHA_MNF

J an -0 9
A p r-0 8
Mo% ∆ of SHA_MNF Ex-Trans

M a r- 09 J u l-0 8
O c t-0 8
M a y -0 9
J a n -0 9
Shipments for All Manufacturing

J u l-09
SH for All Manufacturing and All Manufacturing Ex-Transportation

A p r-0 9
S e p - 09 J u l-0 9
O c t-0 9
N o v-0 9
J a n -1 0
J an -1 0
0%
5%

-5%
10%
15%
20%

-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%

M a r- 10
Yr % ∆
National Output & Inventories
Durable Goods Orders
10% New Orders for Durable Goods 20% 4% Shipments for Durable Goods 15%

15% 10%
7% 2%

0.1%
10% 5%
4% 5% 0%
0%
1% 0%

Mo %∆
-2% -5%
Mo %∆

Yr %∆

Yr %∆
-5%
-2% -10%
-10% -4%
-2.1%
-15% -15%
-5%
-6%
-20% -20%
-8%
-25% -8% -25%

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10
Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09
-11% -30%
Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10
Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09
Mo% ∆ of SHDG Yr% ∆ of SHDG
Mo% ∆ of NODG Yr% ∆ of NODG

New Orders and Shipments for Non-defense Capital Goods Ex-Air (NO proxy for business investments and SH proxy for GDP
8% business equipment component) 25%

6% 20%

4% 15%

2% 10%

0% 5%

-2% 0%

Yr %∆
Mo %∆

-4% -5%

-6% -10%

-8% -15%

-10% -20%

-12% -25%

-14% -30%
Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09
Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09
Mo% ∆ of NO_NDFCG Ex-Air Mo% ∆ of SH_NDFCG Ex-Air
Yr% ∆ of NO_NDFCG Ex-Air Yr% ∆ of SH_NDFCG Ex-Air

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.


2/8/2010
Employment Indicators

I.C. 4-
800,000 700,000 Week
Initial Claims S.A. I.C. 4-Week MA Week
L-T Initial Claims S.A Ending
650,000 MA
700,000 10/3/09 540,500
600,000
10/10/09 533,000
600,000 550,000 10/17/09 532,250
500,000 10/24/09 526,750
500,000 10/31/09 524,250
450,000 11/7/09 520,500
400,000 400,000 11/14/09 513,000
11/21/09 495,750
350,000
300,000 11/28/09 480,750
300,000 12/5/09 473,250
200,000 250,000 12/12/09 468,000
12/19/09 465,750

1/6/07
3/6/07
5/6/07
7/6/07
9/6/07
11/6/07
1/6/08
3/6/08
5/6/08
7/6/08
9/6/08
11/6/08
1/6/09
3/6/09
5/6/09
7/6/09
9/6/09
11/6/09
1/6/10
3/6/10
100,000 12/26/09 460,250
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 1/2/10 449,750
1/9/10 440,750
1/16/10 446,750
1/23/10 456,750
1/30/10 468,500
11.0% 10-yr U.S. Unemployment Rate
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
J an-99

J an-00

J an-01

J an-02

J an-03

J an-04

J an-05

J an-06

J an-07

J an-08

J an-09

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009. J an-10


2/8/2010
2/8/2010
Avg. Workweek Level - # of Monthly ∆ in Nonfarm Payrolls
hours (000's)
0
500
1,000

(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
Jan-04

100
300
500

(900)
(700)
(500)
(300)
(100)
Apr-04

32.9
33.1
33.3
33.5
33.7
33.9
34.1
Jan-04
Jan-04 Jul-04
Apr-04
Apr-04
Oct-04
Jul-04
Jul-04
Oct-04 Jan-05
Oct-04

ABS ∆ in Nonfarm Payroll


Jan-05 Jan-05 Apr-05
Apr-05 Apr-05 Jul-05
Jul-05
Jul-05

Yr %∆
Oct-05
Oct-05
Oct-05
Jan-06 Jan-06
Jan-06
ABS ∆ in Pop. Employed

Apr-06 Apr-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Jul-06 Jul-06
Oct-06

Jan-07 Oct-06 Oct-06

Avg. Weekly Hours - Total Private


Apr-07 Jan-07 Jan-07
Jul-07 Apr-07

Workweek and Hourly Earnings Data


Apr-07
Oct-07 Jul-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Oct-07
Apr-08 Oct-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-08
Monthly Change in Number of People Employed

Apr-08
Oct-08
Jul-08 Apr-08
Jan-09

Apr-09
Oct-08 Jul-08
Employment Indicators

Hourly Earnings Mo. %∆


Jul-09 Jan-09 Oct-08
Oct-09 Apr-09
Jan-09
12 per. Mov. Avg. (ABS ∆ in Pop. Employed)

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

Jan-10 Jul-09
Apr-09
Oct-09

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.


Jul-09
Jan-10
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%

Oct-09
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%

Jan-10
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%

Avg.Hourly Earnings - Mo %∆
Yr % ∆
Thousands

2/8/2010
Y/Y R etalil Sales % ∆
Ja

250
450
650
850
1,050
1,250
1,450
1,650
1,850
n-

-15%
-13%
-11%
-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
07
J an-05 Ap
Apr-05 r- 0
7
J ul-05 Ju
l-0
O c t-05 7
J an-06 O
ct
-0
Apr-06 7
J ul-06 Ja
n-
O c t-06 08

J an-07 Ap

YonY %∆ Tot. Retail Sales


r- 0
Apr-07 8

Auth. Building Permits


J ul-07 Ju
l-0

CCI
O c t-07 8
J an-08 O
ct
-0
Apr-08 8
Ja
J ul-08 n-
09
O c t-08
Ap
J an-09
Residential Construction

r- 0
9

Consumer Confidence, Sentiment and Retail Sales


Apr-09
Housing Units Started

Ju
J ul-09 l-0
9

(Umich) Cons. Sent. Index


O c t-09
O
J an-10 ct
-0
9
Ja

20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
n-
100.0
110.0
120.0

10

In d ices Valu e

N e w H o m e s (K 's o f U n it s ) Monthly %∆

200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%

J a n -0 0
Jan-05
J u l- 0 0 Apr-05
J a n -0 1 Jul-05
J u l- 0 1 Oct-05
J a n -0 2 Jan-06
J u l- 0 2 Apr-06
J a n -0 3 Jul-06
USA Residential Sales

J u l- 0 3 Oct-06

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.


M/M %∆

J a n -0 4 Jan-07
New Home Sales

J u l- 0 4 Apr-07
J a n -0 5 Jul-07
Consumer Spending, Confidence & Sentiment

J u l- 0 5 Oct-07
Y/Y %∆

J a n -0 6 Jan-08
Retail Sales

J u l- 0 6 Apr-08
Jul-08
J a n -0 7
Oct-08
J u l- 0 7
Jan-09
Existing Home Sales

J a n -0 8
Apr-09
J u l- 0 8
Jul-09
J a n -0 9
Oct-09
J u l- 0 9
Jan-10
J a n -1 0
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%

-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
11%

3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
-13%
-11%

E x is t in g H o m e s (K 's o f Yearly %∆
U n it s )
M o n th ∆ %

2/8/2010
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
J a n -0 6 1.5%

A p r-0 6

-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
J u l-0 6
Jan-00
O c t -0 6

Jul-00 J a n -0 7
A p r-0 7

CPI Yr%∆
CPI Mo%∆
Jan-01 J u l-0 7
O c t -0 7
Jul-01
J a n -0 8

Core CPI
A p r-0 8
Jan-02

Core-CPI Yr%∆
J u l-0 8
CPI - Monthly and Yearly ∆%

O c t -0 8
Jul-02
J a n -0 9

Jan-03 A p r-0 9
J u l-0 9
Jul-03 O c t -0 9
J a n -1 0
Jan-04
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%

-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%

Jul-04 Y e a rly ∆ %

CPI
Jan-05
M o n th ∆ %

Jul-05
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%

PPI
J a n -0 6
Yearly Change - CPI vs. PPI

Jan-06 A p r-0 6
Prices & Productivity

J u l-0 6
Jul-06 O c t -0 6

J a n -0 7
PPI Yr%∆
PPI Mo%∆

Jan-07
A p r-0 7

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.


J u l-0 7
Jul-07
O c t -0 7

Jan-08 J a n -0 8
Core-PPI Yr%∆
Core-PPI Mo%∆

A p r-0 8
Jul-08 J u l-0 8
PPI - Monthly and Yearly ∆%

O c t -0 8
Jan-09
J a n -0 9
A p r-0 9
Jul-09
J u l-0 9

O c t -0 9
Jan-10
J a n -1 0
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%

-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
10.0%
12.0%

Y e a rly ∆ %
2/8/2010
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
1/5/62 1/5/62
1/5/64 1/5/64
1/5/66 1/5/66
1/5/68 1/5/68
1/5/70 1/5/70
1/5/72 1/5/72
1/5/74 1/5/74
1/5/76 1/5/76
1/5/78 1/5/78
1/5/80 1/5/80
1/5/82 1/5/82
1/5/84 1/5/84
1/5/86 1/5/86
1/5/88 1/5/88
1/5/90 1/5/90
1/5/92 1/5/92
Weekly 3MO UST Yield (Nominal)

Weekly 10YR UST Yield (Nominal)


1/5/94 1/5/94
1/5/96 1/5/96
1/5/98 1/5/98
1/5/00 1/5/00
1/5/02 1/5/02
1/5/04 1/5/04
1/5/06 1/5/06
1/5/08 1/5/08
1/5/10 1/5/10
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00

0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00

1/5/62 1/5/62
1/5/64 1/5/64
1/5/66 1/5/66
1/5/68 1/5/68
1/5/70 1/5/70
1/5/72 1/5/72
1/5/74 1/5/74
US Treasuries Yield (Nominal)

1/5/76 1/5/76
1/5/78 1/5/78

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.


1/5/80 1/5/80
1/5/82 1/5/82
1/5/84 1/5/84
1/5/86 1/5/86
1/5/88 1/5/88
1/5/90 1/5/90
1/5/92 1/5/92
Weekly 1YR UST Yield (Nominal)

Weekly 30YR UST Yield (Nominal)

1/5/94 1/5/94
1/5/96 1/5/96
1/5/98 1/5/98
1/5/00 1/5/00
1/5/02 1/5/02
1/5/04 1/5/04
1/5/06 1/5/06
1/5/08 1/5/08
1/5/10 1/5/10
US Treasuries Yield (Nominal)
6
Weekly US Treasuries Yield Curve

1/29/10
4 12/25/09
7/31/09
3 1/30/09
1/25/08
1/26/07
2 1/27/06

0
3MO 6MO 1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 7YR 10YR 20YR 30YR

1yr/10yr spread

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00
1 /5 /6 2

1 /5 /6 4

1 /4 /6 6

1 /4 /6 8

1 /3 /7 0

1 /3 /7 2

1 /2 /7 4

1 /2 /7 6

1 /1 /7 8

1 /1 /8 0

1 2 /3 1 /8 1

1 2 /3 1 /8 3

1 2 /3 0 /8 5

1 2 /3 0 /8 7

1 2 /2 9 /8 9

1 2 /2 9 /9 1

1 2 /2 8 /9 3

1 2 /2 8 /9 5

1 2 /2 7 /9 7

1 2 /2 7 /9 9

1 2 /2 6 /0 1

1 2 /2 6 /0 3

1 2 /2 5 /0 5

1 2 /2 5 /0 7

1 2 /2 4 /0 9
-1.00

-2.00

-3.00

-4.00

1yr/10yr spread

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.


2/8/2010