:

Youth and the Transformation Process in Afghanistan

Dr. Mohammad Qasim Wafayezada
Abstract
After thirteen years of joint efforts for statebuilding, peacebuilding and democratic consolidation,
Afghanistan faces a more subtle series of political changes and social challenges in the wake of
the transformation decade (2015-2024) with the withdrawal of the international security forces
and a gradual decline in donors financial assistance and changing policy preferences.
Over a decade of political and economic institutionalization has had an immense impact on
Afghanistans social landscape which puts the country on the verge of a rapid social
transformation as the countrys population expands and grows more youthful. With 18.9 percent
of all Afghans between the ages of fifteen and twenty-four, and 48.4 percent of the total
population under the age of fifteen, demographics are changing fast. This youth bulge and the
baby boom present Afghanistan with a threefold challenge: first, growing political
participation and the lukewarm progress in institutionalization that limits their choices to exit or
violence and make the youth more likely to turn into a generation of protest motivated by
increasing unemployment; second and consequently, empowering 11.8 million juveniles and
youth to take a constructive role in economic reconstruction and development throughout the
transformation decade; third, coping with emerging problems such as inter-generational gap,
digital divide, cultural re-integration of the repatriates, and an increasing brain drain phenomena,
etc.
This article sets out to explore some of the potential political consequences of the youth bulge in
Afghanistan, with a critical approach to the National Youth Policy of Afghanistan (2014), and
concludes with specific policy recommendations for the Afghan government, the civil society,
and the international community for a focused and well-coordinated program of action.
About the author
Dr. M. Qasim Wafayezada is serving as Deputy Director General of Afghanistans Civil Aviation Authority and has
been an expert of social and cultural affairs within the Secretariat of the Ministers Council of Afghanistan. He has
earned his doctorate in international relations from Kanazawa University, Japan. His research focus has been on
ethnic politics, democratization and peace-building in post-conflict multiethnic societies. He is the author of Ethnic
Politics and Peacebuilding in Afghanistan: The Root Causes of Political Conflicts and the Problems of Democratic
Transition.

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Fukuyama, Fukuyama, Francis, The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman to the French
Revolution, New York: Farrar, Straus and Girous, 2011, p 3
2
Roy, Olivier, The New Political Elite of Afghanistan, in Weiner, Myron and Ali Banuazizi, eds., The
Politics of Social Transformation in Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan, New York: Syracuse University
Press, 1994, p 72
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See: Willem van de Put, Addressing mental health in Afghanistan, The Lancet Supplement, Vol 360,
December 2002, pp 41-2
4
Khalid A. Mufti, et al, Post-traumatic stress disorder among Afghan refugees following war,
International Psychiatry, Volume 4, Number 1, January 2007, pp 7-8; Claudia Catani, et al, War Trauma,
Child Labor, and Family Violence: Life Adversities and PTSD in a Sample of School Children in Kabul,
Journal of Traumatic Stress, Vol. 22, No. 3, 2009, pp 163-171
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See: Huntington, S., The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order, New York:
Simon & Schuster, 1996.
6
The National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 2011-12, Central Statistics Organization, Kabul:
Jehoon Printing Press, 2014, p 10
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Yukitoshi Matsumoto, Young Afghans in transition: towards Afghanistan, exit or violence?, Conflict,
Security & Development , Vol. 11, No. 5 November 2011, p 557-8
8
See: Sinno, Abdulkader, Explaining the Talibans Ability to Mobilize the Pashtuns, in Robert D.
Crews and Amin Tarzi, eds., The Taliban and the Crisis in Afghanistan, London: Harvard University
Press, 2008, pp 59-89
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Ministry of Higher Education, Statistics at: http://www.mohe.gov.af/?p=ehsaya (Accessed on January 4,

)2015
01 : 0085
http://moe.gov.af/Content/files/1392%20annual%20Operation%20plan%20progress%20report%20final%20version.
( pdf 2 )5102 0081
http://cso.gov.af/Content/files/Education%20syb.pdf
11

See: Ibrahimi, Niamatullah, Bureaucratic Policies and Patronage Politics: Prospects And Challenges of
Private Higher Education in Afghanistan, AAN Briefing paper, January 2014; Giustozzi, Antonio,
Between Patronage and Rebellion: Student Politics in Afghanistan, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation
Unit, Brefing Paper Series, February 2010
12
For more information see: Yahya Baiza, The Politics of Higher Education in Contemporary
Afghanistan: The Post-Taliban Experience, in Education in the Muslim World: Different Perspectives,
Griffin, Rosarii, ed., Oxford: Symposium Books, 2006, pp 305-22
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Kaplan, Robert D., The Coming Anarchy: How scarcity, crime, overpopulation, tribalism, and disease
are rapidly destroying the social fabric of our planet, The Atlantic, February 1994, at:
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1994/02/the-coming-anarchy/304670/
(Accessed
on
)January 4, 2015
16
Urdal, Henrik, A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence, UN Department of
Economic and Social Affairs, Expert Paper No. 2012/1, p 1; Urdal, Henrik, The Devil in the
Demographics: The Effect of Youth Bulges on Domestic Armed Conflict, 1950-2000, Conflict
Prevention & Reconstruction, Paper No. 14 / July 2004
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Matsumoto, op. cite, p 556, Ferguson, J., Decomposing Modernity: History and Hierarchy after
Development, in Postcolonial Studies and Beyond, eds., A. Loomba, S. Kabul, M. Bunzi, A.M. Burton
and J. Esty, Duke University Press, Durham, NC, 2005, pp 168181.
18
Population
Reference
Bureau,
The
World's
Youth
2013
Data
Sheet,
at:
http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2013/youth-datasheet-2013.aspx/ (Accessed on January 4,
)2015
19
Government of Afghanistan, Millennium Development Goals, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Country Report 2005; Government of Afghanistan,. Afghanistan National Development Strategy (1387
1391/20082013), Government of Afghanistan, Kabul, 2008. Government of Afghanistan, the
Afghanistan National Development Strategy Prioritization and Implementation Plan (Mid-2010Mid2013), Volume 1-4, Government of Afghanistan, Kabul, 2010.
| 11


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World Programme of Action for Youth to the Year 2000 and Beyond, New York: United Nations Press,
2010; Document A/RES/64/130 Policies and Programmes Involving Youth, UN General Assembly,
February 3, 2010
21
See: Youth and Migration, United Nations, 2013
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Guide to the Implementation of the World Programmm of Action for Youth, United Nations, 2006, pp 1-12
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National Youth Policy 2014, Government of India, Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports, p 5
:
;National Youth Policy of Sri Lanka, Ministry of Youth Affairs and Skills Development, February 2014
:

Japan National Youth Development Policy, Headquarters for Youth Development, December 2008.
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Honwana, Alcinda, Waithood: Youth transitions and social change, at:

http://www.iss.nl/fileadmin/ASSETS/iss/Documents/Academic_publications/2_honwana.pdf
)(Accessed on January 7, 2015
29
Population Reference Bureau, Worlds Youth Data Sheet, 2013, p 8
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UNODC, Impacts of Drug Use on Users and Their Families in Afghanistan, 2014, p 7; Azam Ahmed,
That Other Big Afghan Crisis, the Growing Army of Addicts, New York Times, November 2, 2013, at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/03/world/asia/that-other-big-afghan-crisis-the-growing-army-of)addicts.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 (Accessed on January 7, 2015
32
Afghanistan Drug Report 2012, Ministry of Counter Narcotics, November 2013, p 21
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UNESCO, Basic Texts, 2014 edition, Paris: UNESCO Publications, 2014, p 5

Afghanistan's HIV Rate Up 38 Percent in 2013, Tolo News, at:
http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/12928-afghanistans-hiv-rate-up-38-percent-in-2013 ( Accessed
)on January
| 21
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See: World Programm of Action for Youth, pp 29-31
Youth and Migration, World Youth Report, United Nations, 2013
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The Fund for Peace, The Fragile States Index, 2014, p 23

See: The Least Developed Countries Report 2012: Harnessing Remittances and Diaspora Knowledge
to Build Productive Capacities, UNCTAD, New York and Geneva, 2012; The Afghan brain drain, at:
)http://www.dw.de/the-afghan-brain-drain/a-16898324 (Accessed on January 7, 2015
44

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Huntington, Samuel P., So, are civilizations at war? Interview by The Observer, Sunday, October 21
| 25

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Afghanistan Drug Report 2012, Ministry of Counter Narcotics, November 2013
Afghanistan's
HIV
Rate
Up
38
Percent
in
2013,
Tolo
News,
http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/12928-afghanistans-hiv-rate-up-38-percent-in-2013
(Accessed on January)

at:

Azam Ahmed, That Other Big Afghan Crisis, the Growing Army of Addicts, New York Times,
November 2, 2013, at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/03/world/asia/that-other-big-afghan-crisisthe-growing-army-of-addicts.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 (Accessed on January 7, 2015)
Claudia Catani, et al, War Trauma, Child Labor, and Family Violence: Life Adversities and PTSD in a
Sample of School Children in Kabul, Journal of Traumatic Stress, Vol. 22, No. 3, 2009, pp 163-171
Document A/RES/64/130 Policies and Programmes Involving Youth, UN General Assembly, February 3,
2010
Guide to the Implementation of the World Programmm of Action for Youth, United Nations, 2006

Ferguson, J., Decomposing Modernity: History and Hierarchy after Development, in Postcolonial
Studies and Beyond, eds., A. Loomba, S. Kabul, M. Bunzi, A.M. Burton and J. Esty, Duke
University Press, Durham, NC, 2005, pp 168181.
Fukuyama, Fukuyama, Francis, The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman to the French
Revolution, New York: Farrar, Straus and Girous, 2011
Giustozzi, Antonio, Between Patronage and Rebellion: Student Politics in Afghanistan, Afghanistan
Research and Evaluation Unit, Brefing Paper Series, February 2010
Government of Afghanistan, Millennium Development Goals, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Country
Report 2005
Government of Afghanistan,. Afghanistan National Development Strategy (13871391/20082013),
Government of Afghanistan, Kabul, 2008.
29 |

Government of Afghanistan, the Afghanistan National Development Strategy Prioritization and

Implementation Plan (Mid-2010Mid-2013), Volume 1-4, Government of Afghanistan, Kabul, 2010.

Honwana,
Alcinda,
Waithood:
Youth
transitions
and
social
change,
at:
http://www.iss.nl/fileadmin/ASSETS/iss/Documents/Academic_publications/2_honwana.pdf
(Accessed on January 7, 2015)
Huntington, S., The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order, New York: Simon &
Schuster, 1996.
Huntington, Samuel P., So, are civilizations at war? Interview by The Observer, Sunday, October 21
Ibrahimi, Niamatullah, Bureaucratic Policies and Patronage Politics: Prospects And Challenges of Private
Higher Education in Afghanistan, AAN Briefing paper, January 2014
Japan National Youth Development Policy, Headquarters for Youth Development, December 2008
Kaplan, Robert D., The Coming Anarchy: How scarcity, crime, overpopulation, tribalism, and disease are
rapidly destroying the social fabric of our planet, The Atlantic, February 1994, at:
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1994/02/the-coming-anarchy/304670/ (Accessed on
January 4, 2015)
Khalid A. Mufti, et al, Post-traumatic stress disorder among Afghan refugees following war,
International Psychiatry, Volume 4, Number 1, January 2007, pp 7-8
Ministry of Higher Education, Statistics at: http://www.mohe.gov.af/?p=ehsaya (Accessed on January 4,
2015)
National Youth Policy, Government of India, Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports, 2014
National Youth Policy of Sri Lanka, Ministry of Youth Affairs and Skills Development, February 2014
Population
Reference
Bureau,
The
World's
Youth
2013
Data
Sheet,
at:
http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2013/youth-datasheet-2013.aspx/ (Accessed on January
4, 2015)
Roy, Olivier, The New Political Elite of Afghanistan, in Weiner, Myron and Ali Banuazizi, eds., The
Politics of Social Transformation in Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan, New York: Syracuse University
Press, 1994
Sinno, Abdulkader, Explaining the Talibans Ability to Mobilize the Pashtuns, in Robert D. Crews and
Amin Tarzi, eds., The Taliban and the Crisis in Afghanistan, London: Harvard University Press,
2008
The Fund for Peace, The Fragile States Index 2014, FFP : CFSIR1423 (Version 06D)
The Afghan brain drain, at: http://www.dw.de/the-afghan-brain-drain/a-16898324 (Accessed on January 7,
2015)
The National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 2011-12, Central Statistics Organization, Kabul: Jehoon
Printing Press, 2014
The Least Developed Countries Report 2012: Harnessing Remittances and Diaspora Knowledge to Build
Productive Capacities, UNCTAD, New York and Geneva, 2012
UNESCO Operational Strategy on Youth 2014-2021
UNESCO, Basic Texts, 2014 edition, Paris: UNESCO Publications, 2014
UNODC, Impacts of Drug Use on Users and Their Families in Afghanistan, 2014

30 |

Urdal, Henrik, A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence,

Economic and Social Affairs, Expert Paper No. 2012/1

UN Department of

Urdal, Henrik, The Devil in the Demographics: The Effect of Youth Bulges on Domestic Armed Conflict,
1950-2000, Conflict Prevention & Reconstruction, Paper No. 14 / July 2004
Willem van de Put, Addressing mental health in Afghanistan, The Lancet Supplement, Vol 360,
December 2002, pp 41-2
World Programme of Action for Youth to the Year 2000 and Beyond, New York: United Nations Press,
2010
Yahya Baiza, The Politics of Higher Education in Contemporary Afghanistan: The Post-Taliban
Experience, in Education in the Muslim World: Different Perspectives, Griffin, Rosarii, ed., Oxford:
Symposium Books, 2006, pp 305-22
Youth and Migration, World Youth Report, United Nations, 2013
Yukitoshi Matsumoto, Young Afghans in transition: towards Afghanistan, exit or violence?, Conflict,
Security & Development , Vol. 11, No. 5 November 2011

31 |