Sei sulla pagina 1di 117
how nature works PER'BAK how nature works ©1996 Space Velag Now You, ln Alteightsreseeval No pacrof this publication maybe eproduced, sored ia ena tem, or tans in any frm ot by ny means cectronkmeshanial photocopying, eonding or oerwte, without he pioe ‘west pecmisionof the publisher Allchancrescacep or hii pecsonsgs ae Besos Pblishedia the Unied Sits by Cpecnicus am imprincof ‘Spang Verlag New York, In. Copernicus Spring Verlag New York Inc. 75h Avcoue Now York, NY 0010 USA Liteayof Congres Cataloging Publication Dara ryof Congr Cataloging Bak, P (Pe 947 low nature works: the scene of logan cic / Pe Bak. Includes ibiogaphicaeftences and index, ISBNo-387-9¢29r4(hardcove alk pape) 1. Cota phenomena (Phys) 2, Compleiy (Philosophy) 5. Physcs—Philsopty 1. Tie, einsaCratsg rope 003" paca estas ‘Manufictred inthe United Setesof Ames. Printed on ai fi pape Designed by Niki Prous 9876 saa ae ISBN o-i8raarore SPIN ersves ‘Who could ever ealeulate the path of « molecule? How do we know that the ereations of worlds are sot determined by falling geuins of sand? —Vietor Hugo, Lee Miserables Contents ecfice and Acknowledgments Chaper Complexity end Critieslity The Lasof Physis Are Simple, bur Nature sCompler Storytelling Vers Scence ‘WharCan Theory of Compleiy Explain? Power Las nd Critical : Szemsin Balance Are Nox Complex ‘Chaos lsNot Complexyy SsttOrganized Criicaliy Caper? The Discovery of Self Organized Critieality SeienceatBroakhsen Wheee Does 1/F“Noise” Come From? ‘Susan Coppersmith’s Dog Model (On Coupled Pendulum The Philosophy of Using Simple Model: ‘On SpheicalCows “The Pendulums Become Critical Cheper’3 "The Sandpile Paradigm a8 a B 8 7 7 9 “ 4 o Oper Chaper5 Chapers Cheper7 Chaps How Nature Woks Life in che Sandpile World. Can We Calculate the Powee Laws with Pen and Papee? Real Sendpiles and Land Real Sand Nonegin Rice Piles Vises Lande Experiment The Origin of Fractals i" 1 Formation, Himalayan Sandpits Sediment Deposition Geomorphology: Landscapes Out of Balance. Earthquakes, Starquekes, and Soler Flares Self Organization of Earthquakes A Misprint Leads co Progress Rumbling Around Stromboli ‘The Crustof de Ext IsCriveal Pulsar Glitches and Stanquakes Black Holes ad Solar Faces. ‘The "Game of Life’ [sCrit Ts LifeaSelOrganized Critical Phenomenon? ‘TheSaavaFelastite Sandpitesand Punctaated Equilibvia Inserting Dancing Fitness Landscapes Mass Extinctions and Panetuated Equilibria ina Simple Model of Evolution Can We Mod! Darwin? A Science Projet fora Suda Ato 9 6 6 6 & 8 8s 8 ” 105 1a ug 7 1a 129 ue hyper Chapter 10 baer 11 Contents Lifesea Cold Place Comparison with Rel Dat ‘On Dinosauesand Meteors Dante Chialo's Evolutionary Game Sel Organizod Critiairy and Gaia Replying the Tapeof Evolution ‘Theory ofthe Punctuated Equilibrium Model Whatlsa Theo)? The Radom Neighbor Version ‘ofthe Etolution Movel “TheSelEOrgsnization Process The Cerca Sare Revisiting che Game of Life. Revisicng Earthquakes ‘The Brain Woy Should the Brain Be Critical? The Monkey Problein The Brainand River Necworks On Economies and Traffic Jems Equilibrium Econonscs ls Like Water Real Economics Is Lie Sand . Simple Toy Model of a Criacl Economy luctuationsand Catastrophes Are Unavoidable Trafic Jams Biblogeaphy Index us 4s tse 153 54 156 Ist 162 16) 1s 65 "70 va 175 176 8 0 183 8 185 87 19 ‘92 99 preface and acknowledgments SelEorganinadcritsaliy sa. way of vowing natu. Th bas pita is ‘one whecenacar is perpetually out of hale, but organized in 3 posal seate—thecriteal sate—where anything can happen wichin wllsfnad scarica laws. The aim ofthe science of selEonganized erica ist ic insight into che Fundamental qustion of why natucescomples ot simp, sche sof pss ply Selforgsnized cist cxlains some ubiquitous pactena existing in nacure char we vow as complex. Praca stractur and catastrophic vena are amoag thse eegulasiten Applications range from the stay of pulses and black bol ocarthquaks and he cxolucion of lif: Oae intriguing conse uence ofthe dors thateatsteophes can occur for an soa whaeocee ions my tae place without any external rgaring mechanism such asavoleani eruption ora meteor: iting he earth (although the he Massent cexyof course atmo ule ur tha cis hasin ft scum wi How Naar Works Since we fst proposed the idea in 1987, more chan 2,00 papets hare ‘beenwricenonseF organized rial making ous the mostcited paperin Physics ducing tha period. How Nar Wk ische fis book vo deal with the subject. The basic ea issimple, and most af the mathematical models hat thre been sed inch implementaonaf ee eheoryatenoccomplicts Any: ‘one with some computer literacy and2 PCcansethe models upon sown verify the predictions Oe, no more than highschool mathematics ined ‘Som ofthe compute programs ace even sable onthe lnernet Some of ‘the sandpil experiments ate ofr greater cst a dicuy han che d= cated reader can perform him or herself Unlike othe subj in physi che bscideasare simple enough tobe madeacersibletoanon scientific audios withouebeing vale. ‘Many frends andcolleagueshase helped me, with bch the reserch andthe book. The science has been all fin—in paccula [am grateful to Kure ‘Wiesenfeld and Chao Tag, with whom I collaborated on che origina ides, and to Kan Chea, Kim Christensen, Maya Paceuah, Zeer Olsmi, Serge Masloy, Michael Creutz, Michael Woodford, Dimitri Stassinopolous, and Jose Scinkman, who parcipate inthe researc that followed, bringing the idea © Lie by applying it co many difétene phenomeas in nature ‘Thanks are due to Elaine Wiesenfeld for drawing the logo of self organized rita che sandple, show in Figure 150 Ricacd Soe for drawing che dog: pulling Figure 9 to Arch Johaston foe providing Figute 3; to Jens Feder and his group ia Oslo for Figure 6 and the figuves on thei iepite experiment, Figures ¢5-17 and Plate 4:10 Daaset Rothman and John Groezinges fr the photosof the Kings Peak formation, Figuce 18; Peter Gaasberge for she office version ofthe sindpile model, Figure «3; 2nd 10 Paolo Diodati for providing the original Bguces on the messucements of scoustic emission from Stromboli, Figute 25. The impressive computer graphics on che sndpil in Pace 1, and che"Game of Lif” Plates 6-8, ace due Michael Couee ‘A numberof persons helped me increase the leary qualies of the smanuscise—unforcunstchy she brie of oecise form that ic sale oe Preiceand Acknowledgments xiii ofall Lam gratefil to Maya Pacauski ad Jim Niederce who spenc endless ours improvig the presentation and helping with organizing the ater [My cilden, Tne and Jakob and Thoms, checked che maauserp fore ably fr non profesional leading rovison of saeel uncle pases ally Lam indcbeed Jerry Lyoes, William Feuchy and Robere Wesler of Copernicus Books for substantial andiavalable help wth the manuscrpeat allsages chapter ] complexity and ooo. eriticality How the nines ste with we ypesof elementary partiles ache big bang andeend upwith if, hitasy.esonomic and lieatuce” The qusstion sereaming out tbe ansered bur iis seldom even asked. Why dl the big bang aor oem a simple gasof parle. orsondente into one bigexyal? We se complex phenomena around us so ofen that we ake them for granted without looking foe further explanation. a fice unc ecendly ey lle si nti effort was devoted to understanding why nature iscomple. 1 will argue the complex twhavie in nature eects the tendency of rival” sat, laxgesysems with many components o evolve ncaa posed, way 0u¢ of balance, where minor disturbances may lad to eens, called avalanches, of all sizes. Most of the changes take place rough catastrophic enone rather cha by following a smooth gradual path, The eelucion to this wey delicate seat oscars ‘without desig fom any outside agent. The state ses lished solely because of the dynamical ineractions 2 HowNsture Wocks ss peed Soni eric holy known gen Calihan wperceoupliy Temacislenbon com eect tngund ldo espe ln pwnage fwnddeincpnnretunchchecae ae ere esata incite pyapopre hcegeeccenn vest pleteonesepr ane ilteldenatiide Renee one tn sides bcos beads Ben eco *iesnaycenspnaloemsotie pile An pan peopee ee oft ans tebe ol te ndenwndio cesta ‘raft ris The cheer sno cee stichonteunesnonl fom sis depot thei pirate han fm a reuse erp ts ‘ins heaps compergoem Figure L_ Sandpile (Drawing by Mu Elaine Wiesenfeld) ComplestysndCoiielty “The complex phenomena observed everywhere iadiate that mature op- crates atthe self organized critical state. The behavior of he crcl sine mimic several phenomena observed aero many sciences, which ate asoci- aed with complerey Bus before aging thachisisindeed the case, let ws ry ‘oshatpen the defiition ofthe problem, Whacis complexiy? How have i= cntiss and othersaddvesed the peoblemin the pas? The Laws of Physies Are Simple, but Nature Is Complex ‘Seating om the Big Bang, he univers is supposed ohare evolved acon ing tothe laws of physics By analyzing experiments nd observations, physi- ins ave been sry succesful in Binding thos as The inner secrets of mater have been revealed down to ever smaller seals Mater consists of toms which are composed ofelemeatary pailessuchaseloerons protons, ans neucons which cheselves ar formed by quarks and gluons and son, All phenomena in aatue fom dhe largest length sales panned bythe une ‘ere he smallest epresented by the quick, should be explained by the same lawsof physics, (Onesuch lwvis Newon'second lax = ms whichsimplyllsusthatan object hats subjected to a force responds by acceletacing ¢ ete propor ‘ional to that free. Thissimple lw issufcen to desceibe how an appl ills ‘othe ground how planesorbicthe sun and how alaesareactacted tone another by the foce of rari: Maxwellsequatons desebe the interactions berween electrical eurents and magnets fel, allowing us co understand how an cleric moor ora dynamo wocks Esti theory of elativity ays that Newtons laws hare 1 be mode fr objets moving ahh veloc, ‘Quanta mechanics els us thatelecerons in an atom can onl exis in states with specific enegies Theelecteonscan jump fromone sae tosnocher with: ‘utspending any time in beeween ‘These awsof physieare quite simple. They arcexpresed in mathemat- ‘al equations hac ean all be weiten dowa on couple of notebook pages the mathematics invoed in solving these equations, xen fos 4 How Nature Woeks ‘than em objects to consider Forinstanee,akulatng the motion ofewo plane ‘moving inthe graitational eld ofthe ther planets andthe sun sexed ‘andy iicule The problem isinslublewith penand paper andcan be done ‘only approxintely with he help ofeompuccrs butchaisusually considered ‘be practical problem rather han Fundamental phys problem, ‘The philosphy of physics snc is incepion hasbeen reductionist chat the world around us can be undestood in terms ofthe properties of simple building blocks Even the Grecks vewe the wold asconsstiagofony aw «ements Oace me hate broken the world dowa to is simples Fundamental laws, andthe mos Fundamental particles have been kent he jo scom= plete Once we hae aeomplihed tis fa, the oe of physici—the "hing of ‘eiences'—willbe played out ad the stage can belefto che “ese” sient, suchas geophysics, chemi. and biology: cosorcout the consequences mn some special ass, physicists hae succeded in explaining the chav ‘orofsystems consisting of many parearoms, molecules, o electrons For instance, the behavior fey, where ilo of atoms ney occupy the rowsand columns ofa regula periodic latices elaively well undestood fom the basic ws ofphysic A cysts prin cxampleof an ordered tem, where each atom has is wll defined plac on egula pei gid ‘Theceysalsunderstandable precely because ilooks the same everywhere Acthe opposite end ofthe spect from crystal are gases, which also «consist of many stoms or molecule. Gases can be understood beets hee ‘molecules rately interact, by bumping into one another. ln contrast the ‘cyst where the atomsareorderedon lei, the atomsina gas forma ta dom, disordered system, Again the tactabilty ofthe system aie femmes uniform: The gs loks the same exer, although ta given ime the indviduat atoms a dtferat lestions move with differen velocities in Aliflerene directions Onaecage ll atoms haw the same way. Howes wed ari ia.simple bocng world composed only of plan- ts ocbting other plans, cogulrinfntecrysal, and simple gases liquide (Our everyday situation isnot hac of lling apples we open the window, we sc an eniely dient picere. The suefic of he earth sa incite cone alomerate of mountains, oceans, islands, eter volcanoes glaciers and earth: ‘quake fal eachofwhichhasitsomncharactristic dynamics Unlike veer. ComplesiysndCricalty 5 ese oF disordered systems, landscapes ifr fom pce to pace and om timetodine Iishecauseofthisyariaion chat wecan orient ourseleaby dy ‘ngthe local landscape around ws will deine systems with argewariabiliy as ample The variability may enacona wid ange oflength scales Ke 200m in doer and closer, o look out further ad futher, we Gnd vaiailty 3 ech leelof magnifcacion, with more snd enoee new detailsappearig. Inthe un ese theres variably om he greats sale Jus about every week there ba cw report from the Hubble elscope obiing the cath o rom ineeplane cary srcllitson some previously undicoreed phenomenon, Complesig isa CChiaese box phenomenon. Ineachbox thee ae new surprises Many diferent utociaive general definition ofcomplengy have ean atrempesd, without mach sucesso le us chink of complexiy simply variably Cys and gacsand orig planets are notcomplexbuclandacapes are Ashe variably sen in astronomy an geophysics were 20 enough the compleriy has many more layers Biolgeal life has evoled on earth, swith ayeiad difvenr species, many with bilions af individuals competing ane erating with eachother and with che eovironmene Arthe end ofone tiny beanchofbilogy we ind ourseles. We can recognize ober humans be nse me aeall diferente human body and brain ae oem by an int catearangemencofiaeracting cells The brain may be the most complers)> tem oll because i¢ an form a xprecattion ofthe complex outer word. Ouhisor. wich iseecord of uphesals wars. religions and poliicalsysems, consiatesyetanathe vel ofcompleniy involving modern human societies with economies composed of consumers, producers, thiews, goveenmeats, sndeconomins Ths, che wodd char we actly obseve is fill ofall Kinds ofstucture and surprises. How doce variability emerge out of simple invariable law? “Mosc phenomena that we observe around us sem rather distant from the basic aso physics, eis futile eadeaor coe toexpain most acura phe ‘pomena in deal by saci fom parte physics snl fllowing the tao ‘eso al particles The combined power of all che computes inthe word ees not rea come close to che capacity needed forsuch a undertaking. “The fir chat che fs of physi spect everything (chat they ae deter © How Nature Works physics during the aso centuries combined with che advances of modeen ‘highspeed eomputeor—thac everything an be understood from “fre prin: ciples’—has been thoroughly shared. About thie yeats ago, inthe ine fancy ofthe computerera,therewas atherextensvceflot, known simi _rrth that ad he oalof making global predictions The hope was tobe able ‘forecast, among che things the growthof thc human population and i impact on he supply ofc esoures. The projet filed misesty be ‘use th outcome depended ontnrediable itor: not explily incoepo ‘ted iat the progr. Pehaps predictions on global wm ila the same catego since we ate dealing with long-erm predictions in complex system, eventhough we have good understanding of he physics of weather ‘Thelawsofphysiscan explia how an ppl falls bucnot why Newton.a parofacomplexworld was watching the apple Nor does physis have much ‘say about che apples origin. Ulimacely though we believe chat all decom plex phenomens, including biologie i, do indeed obey physical laws we -2esimply unable co make the connection fom torsin which we kaw that ‘he lars are correc, through he chemietcyofcomplicaedoxginic molecules, ‘the formation fells and the atrangemencofthow cells in tvingo anisms Thee has never been any proof ofa metaphysis pees noe ft lowing the laws of physics chat would distinguish ling acer fem any ‘other One might wonder whether his state of afirs means that we canner find generat“awsof nature” dexrbing why the ntinay things that we act ally observ around usarecompexcathee than simple ‘The question of he org of complexity rom simple ws of plysicr ~ ‘maybe the bigest purzleofall—us ony recently emerged aan active sci. ct. One reson is that high-speed compurers, which are essential this ‘study have noc een generally arable before. However even now the cence .0f complet is shrouded in a good deal of spits —it isnot clear how any general result can possibly be help, because each cence works well within sown domain, Because ofourinabilicy wo dicey calculate how complex phenomena cone eel aie rom the physical mechanisms working atadeeper lew ats sometimes throw up cher hands and efi fo these phenomena as “emergent” They jst pop out of nowhere. Geophysics emerges fom mtr Complestyand Ceiclty 7 physics Chemistry emerges from physics Biology emerges from chemisery sre geophysics, and o on. Each seience develops itn jargon, and works with its oma ebjecs and concepts. Geophysics talk about tectonic plate ‘motion ad earthquakes without eeference ro ascophysics, biologi de- serbe the properces and evolution of species without receace to geo- physics, economists describe human monetary transactions without refer- ence 9 biology and soon. Thre is noting wrong with that Because ofthe cming incracobiltyofemergent phenomena, no other moxlus operandi is posible Io new phenomena emerges in lrge stems out ofthe dynamics ofsystems working lowe level then we would need no scientist pa ticle physicists since chee would be no other aeas to cone: But shen there ‘would be no particle physicists. Quali some way emerges fom quar tig but how? Fiestlecus eiew couple of previous approaches to dealing with complex phenomena Storytelling Versus Seience ‘Thereductionist methodsof physice—dtild predictions allomed by com- parison with reproducible experiments—are imposible in vast area of ente interest The question of ow go deal with this problem as been clearly formulated bythe eninent palcontolois and science writer Stephen Jay Gout in his book Winder Lif How should ceaitsoperewhen they muster teapisinsheresuka history those inordinaly complexevents than accurbutoncsin derailed lo? Many lage domains of axtuce—cosmolgygolog nd evcaton mong tem —mus be stati withthe tools of itary The appropiate mehadsfocuson marae, oterprimentas nll concee Gould eheows up his hands and argues that only “sorytelling” can be ‘wed in many sciences because particular outcomes are contingent on many single and unpreditable evens. Experiments are ieleane in elution of paleontology. because nothings teproucibe Hscory: inching thatofew lucion,isjust“one damned thing afer another” We an explain in hindsight shat has happened, bur we eannoepredice what wll happen in the fue, ‘The Danish philosopher Soren Kievkesnard expressed che same view i his 8 How Nature Works fmous phrase “Lifes understood backwards, but must be lied foards [Uivefrstasbaglans men manera" ‘Sciences hate traiconally been grouped into two categories hard ei «nec, ia which repeatable eventscan be predicted fom a mathematical ‘mals expresing the laws of nature, aed sft sciences, in which, beeause of their inhecea variably only a naeatve account of dxinuishable events Post mortem is posible Physics chemi. and molecular biology belong to the fs category history, biological evolution, and economics belong tothe second, Gould eighty atibuts the variably of things and cheeefocecheie ‘complexing to contgency Historical evens depend on freak accidents so iF the ape ofistoy i replayed many times with slightly clifeen intial com lion, the outcome wll itfervasely each ime. The mysteciousoccusrences ‘eFincidemts leading to dramatic ouxcomes hate fascinate historians and in- spired fiction writs. Ral lifts dependence on Feak events allows the Sesion wees hugeamountofealm, without losing eed "Hisorians explain evens in a nareaie language where even A leads co ‘reat B and Ceads to D. Then, bectuseofeventD, event B leads t E, How ‘eniftheevent Chad noc happened, chen D and Ewould nove happened titer. The cous of history would have changed ino another sequence of ‘vents which mould have been equally well explainable in hindigh, with» Aitfretnareatve. The discovery of America involved long series of events, ‘ach ofcrucial historical mportnce for the atl outcome: Columbus pa shad to mectesh othe Columbus had whe bore he had ogo Spin ‘oe funding the weather ad tobe reasonable snd soon History is unpre

Potrebbero piacerti anche