EDMA310/360 Mathematics unit planner: Kate Johnston S00112587

Unit Overview

Unit title:
Probability: From the Classroom to the Real World

Content maths area:

Probability

Grade/year level:
Grade 6: Level 6

Learning Focus (ideas extrapolated from AusVELS):

Mathematics: Statistics and Probability: Chance
ACMSP144: Describe probabilities using fractions, decimals and percentages.
ACMSP145: Conduct chance experiments with both small and large numbers of trials
using appropriate digital technologies.
ACMSP146: Compare observed frequencies across experiments with expected
frequencies.

Rationale:
Probability is a mathematical domain that has common real life applications, such as
weather forecasting, sports statistics, and risk assessments (Fennell & Rowan, 1990, &
Bramald, 1994). Students with mathematical fluency in probability are likely to be more
skilled at judgement making, risk assessment and decision making in their everyday
lives (Bramald, 1994, & Fennell & Rowan, 1990). Therefore these skills are worthwhile
lifelong skills to attain.

Assumed prior knowledge of students:

It is assumed that students have no prior formal probability education. However, it is
assumed that students will bring a bank of prior knowledge in terms of subjective
probability (probability based on experience), and associated informal vocabulary
(Barnes, 1998).
Students bank of subjective probabilities will act as a foundation for the building of
experimental probability experiences (Barnes, 1998) and later, theoretical probability.

Grouping strategies to support learning:

Students will conduct the majority of investigations in varying sized groups in order to
facilitate student oriented mathematical discourse regarding content, strategies and
ideas (Edwards and Hensien, 2000, & Hall, 2005). Students will work in rotational
groups at times, moving from station to station, and will work in triads on initial open
tasks, also to foster rich mathematical discussion. Students will work independently on
final assessment open task, and will work independently on reflective mathematical
journals at the end of each session (Stables, 1995).

Overview of assessment:
Cognitive
X

Affective

Formative
X

Summative

Method
observation

Work
collection
Work
collection
Peer
assessment
Roving
conference

evidence
Contribution
to
class
discussion
Reflective
journals
Open task
assessment
Discussion
following
gallery walk
Student
comments,
student
strategies

References:
Barnes, M. (1998). Dealing with Misconceptions about Probability.Australian Mathematics
Teacher,54(1), 1720. Retrieved from
<http://search.informit.com.au/documentsummary;dn=436396540861333;res=IELHSS>ISSN:
0045-0685
Bramald, R. (1994). Teaching probability.Teaching Statistics,16(3), 8589. doi:10.1111/j.14679639
Edwards, T. G., & Hensien, S. M. (2000). Using Probability Experiments to Foster
Discourse.Teaching Children Mathematics,6(8), 524. Retrieved from
Http//:go.galegroup.com/ps/I.do?
Fennell, F., & Rowan, T. E. (1990). IMPLEMENTING THE STANDARDS: Probability.The
Arithmetic Teacher,38(4), 1822. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/41195033
Hall, L. (2005). Collaborative and Cooperative Learning.Education Horizons,8(5), 1618.
Retrieved from Http://search.informit.com.au/
Stables, A. (1995). Learning Through talk and Learning through talking: Sound and Silence in
the classroom. .Language and Education,9(1), 6168. doi:10.1080/09500789509551402

MATHEMATICS UNIT PLANNER

Topic: Probability
Key mathematical understandings
(2-4 understandings only; written as statements believed to be
true about the mathematical idea/topic):

Probability is the measure of the

likelihood of an event occurring in
the future and can be represented
along a continuum (0/impossible to
1/certain)

Probability has no memory.

The higher the number of trials and

the larger the sample size, the more
accurate the experimental probability
will be

Experimental probability and data

collection/assessment can be used 1.
to estimate the probability of events 2.
3.
where the outcomes are not
symmetrical

Year Level: 6

Term: 1

Week: 7

Key AusVELS Focus / Standard (taken directly from AusVELS documents):

Content strand(s):
Number and Algebra
Measurement and Geometry
Sub-strand(s): Chance

Date: na
Statistics and Probability

Level descriptions:
Problem Solving:

Problem Solving includes formulating and solving authentic problems using fractions, decimals, percentages and
measurements, interpreting secondary data displays, and finding the size of unknown angles

Reasoning:
Reasoning includes explaining mental strategies for performing calculations, describing results for
continuing number sequences, explaining the transformation of one shape into another, explaining why the actual results of
chance experiments may differ from expected results

Fluency
Fluency includes representing integers on a number line, calculating simple percentages, using brackets appropriately,
converting between fractions and decimals, using operations with fractions, decimals and percentages, measuring using
metric units, and interpreting timetables

Proficiency strand(s):
-Describe probabilities using fractions, decimals and percentages (ACMSP144)
-Conduct chance experiments with both small and large numbers of trials using appropriate digital technologies (ACMSP145)
-Compare observed frequencies across experiments with expected frequencies (ACMSP146)

Theoretical probability can be used

to calculate the likelihood of an event
occurring where outcomes are
symmetrical.

Key skills to develop and practise (including strategies,

Key equipment / resources:

ways of working mathematically, language goals, etc.) (4-5 key skills

Coins, Varying spinners (standard and abstract),

Coloured counters, Opaque bags, Standard dice
and abstract dice, website
http://illuminations.nctm.org, pass the pigs game,
paper barbie cut outs, paper clothing cut outs for
barbie, box of smarties,

only):

The ability to collect, record and organize data

The ability to represent data in multiple AND

appropriate forms (eg: graphs, diagrams,
charts, fractions, percentages).

Problem solving skills

The ability to apply knowledge to new

Key vocabulary (be specific and include definitions of key words

appropriate to use with students)

Impossible, certain, likely, unlikely, probability, trial,

frequency, experimental, theoretical, subjective,
dependent, independent, outcome, conjecture,
hypothesis, fair, unfair, symmetrical outcome,
asymmetrical outcome

situations and make inferences from data

Possible misconceptions

(list of misconceptions related to

the mathematical idea/topic that students might develop):

Learning
strategies/
skills

Probability has a memory (events are not

independent of one another). Eg: Ive flipped
6 heads in a row so the next one must be a
tail.
All outcomes are symmetrical
Frequency fallacy (personal experience may
lead people to believe an outcome is more or
less likely to occur)
Sample size and number of trials doesnt
influence experimental probability results
If experimental probability should be the same
as theoretical probability

Analysing
Checking
Classifying
Co-operating
Considering options
Designing
Elaborating

MATHEMATICAL
FOCUS
(what you want the children
to come to understand as a
result of this lesson short,
succinct statement)

Estimating
Explaining
Generalising
Hypothesising
Inferring
Interpreting
Justifying

TUNING IN
(WHOLE CLASS FOCUS)
(a short, sharp task relating to the
focus of the lesson; sets the scene/
context for what students do in the
independent aspect. e.g., It may be a
problem posed, spider diagram, an
open-ended question, game, or
reading a story)

Key probing questions (focus questions that will be used to

Links to other contexts (if applicable, e.g., inquiry unit focus,

develop understanding to be used during the sequence of lessons; 3 5

probing questions):

current events, literature, etc.):

What did you notice about

Explain how you got/did that.
What makes you say that?
What do you predict.
Can you think of an example?

Listening
Locating information
Making choices
Note taking
Observing
Ordering events
Organising

INVESTIGATIONS
SESSION
(INDEPENDENT LEARNING)
(extended opportunity for students to
work in pairs, small groups or
individually. Time for teacher to probe
childrens thinking or work with a small
group for part of the time and to also
conduct roving conferences)

Performing
Persuading
Planning
Predicting
Presenting
Providing feedback
Questioning

Inquiry (insurance task)

Science (scientific approach to testing
variables and conjectures

Reading
Recognising bias
Reflecting
Reporting
Responding
Restating
Revising

REFLECTION & MAKING

CONNECTIONS
SESSION
(WHOLE CLASS FOCUS)
(focused teacher questions and
summary to draw out the mathematics
and assist children to make links. NB.
This may occur at particular points
during a lesson. Use of spotlight,
strategy, gallery walk, etc.)

Seeing patterns
Selecting information
Self-assessing
Sharing ideas
Summarising
Synthesising

ADAPTATIONS
- Enabling prompt
(to allow those experiencing difficulty to
engage in active experiences related to
the initial goal task)
- Extending prompt
(questions that extend students
thinking on the initial task)

Testing
Viewing
Visually representing
Working independently
Working to a timetable

ASSESSMENT
STRATEGIES
(should relate to objective. Includes
what the teacher will listen for,
observe, note or analyse; what
evidence of learning will be collected
and what criteria will be used to
analyse the evidence)

Session 1: Informal
probability/Introductio
n to Experimental
probability

Game 1: Impossible?

Experimental probability stations.

We are learning to
describe the likelihood
of an event occurring in
qualitative terms using
both experience and
experimental data

Students are given sticky

notes with various events
recorded on them. Events
range from impossible to
certain. Students are to
place events along the
likelihood continuum.

ACMSP144

Teaching strategy- Class

Discussion:

ACMSP146

Higher level questioning:

Why did you place that event
there?
What things did you have to
consider when deciding the
likelihood of this event?

5 stations set up, each

containing a different
item/activity with multiple
outcomes Eg: coin toss,
spinner etc)
Students to work in groups of
5. Rotate through each
station completing tasks.
At each station students view
items, discuss and make
probability conjectures using
qualitative terms.
Students then complete 5
trials, 10 trials, and then 30
trials for each activity.
Recording results in a table.

Teaching strategy: Share

time/Class
Discussion/Questioning

Teaching strategy- Problem

Solving:

Ask students to place simple

measurable probability event
on the continuum (such as
flipping a heads I a coin
toss).

Higher level questioning:

Justify.
Why did your group
hypothesise that probability?

Extending Prompt

Groups share
conjectures.

What factors did you

consider?
Where did the y come from
in your x out of y probability
conjecture?
Who had something
different? Explain?

Groups share and

discuss results for each
activity station.

What did you notice about

the results?
Were they close to your
conjectures?
What do you consider close?
Why?
What do you notice about the
results as the trial numbers
increased? Are they closer or
further from your
conjectures?

Why did you place that there on

the continuum?

Students to write in their

reflective maths
journals responding to
the following prompts:

Does everyone agree? justify?

What does it mean in terms of
probability if we place an event
right in the middle of the
continuum?
Can we assign a number to this
probability?
How did you arrive at that
number?

Observation/Formative

Students can make

conjectures using the
number line continuum
rather than a qualitative
term.

Does everyone agree? Why? Why

not?
Where would you place the
event? Explain?

Enabling Prompt:

1.
2.
3.

Something I learnt about

probability
A wondering I still have
about probability
Make a conjecture about
the relationship between
trial numbers and
probability

Abstract materials:
Such as dodecahedron
dice, or spinners with
outcomes of differing
probabilities (eg: red,
blue)

Students can
assign a
probability to an
event on a
continuum.
Student can use
raw data from
experiments to
assign qualitative
probability to
events.

Work collection/Affective

Collect journals
and identify
understandings,
concerns and
misconceptions.
Note for future
planning.

Session 2:
Experimental
Probability
Applied
We are learning
the relationship
between the
number of trials
and the accuracy
of experimental
probability

KWL chart

Record students
knowledge to date on
probability; students
conjectures regarding
the number of trials and
experimental
probability; record
further wonderings.
Tuning in activity 1: online
electronic spinner
http://illuminations.nctm.org

We are learning to
calculate the
experimental
probability of
events that have
non-symmetrical
outcomes.
ACMSP144
ACMSP145
ACMSP146

Challenge conjectures.
Spin the spinner 10
times/100 times/1000
times.

Teaching strategy: questioning

Which results were closest to
what we expected? Why might
this be?
Tuning in activity 2: game: pass
the pigs

Play for 5 mins.

Discuss scoring
system.

Why are some pig landing

positions worth more points than
others?
Discuss.
Is this the same or different to
working with a standard die?
Why/why not? Discuss
Think-Pair-Share
How could we work out the
probability for each pig landing?

Open Task/Collaborative
work:
Carnival Game

Working in groups of 4,
students are to select
an asymmetrical object
from around the
classroom and turn it
into an object toss
game.
Students are to create a
points system for each
outcome based on the
probability of that
outcome occurring.
Students are to record
all raw data from
probability trials and
leave on display.

Gallery walk

Students are to briefly

try other groups games
and determine whether
point system for each
outcome is reflective of
the experimental
probability of that
outcome occurring.

Provide feedback
On feedback cards (peer
assessment):
Discuss feedback as a class
Eg: This game could be
made fairer. The probability
for the sharpener landing on
its base/top compared to its
front and back faces are 3:1.
Yet you only get twice the
points. Wouldnt it be fairer to
get 3 times the points as it is
3 times harder to roll?

Enabler:
Use objects with no more than 3
outcomes (eg: plastic cup)
Extender:
Challenge question:
Calculate the probable score if the
object was tossed 120 times.

Peer assessment/Formative/
Cognitive
Peers provide feedback on
comment cards:
Groups game scoring system
was fair because the points for
each outcome were reflective of
the experimental probability they
attained through trials.
Agree/Disagree/comment
Experimental data was sufficient
for determining the probability of
each event occurring (lots of
trials). Agree/disagree/comment

Class Discussion
Session 3:Theoretical
probability

Game: Whos the lucky one?

(2 yin yang spinners).

Dress Barbie for the party

We are learning to
calculate theoretical
probability of an event
using a diagram.

3 players spin both spinners once.

If both spinners land on black, P1
gets a point. If both spinners land
on white, P2 gets a point. If one
spinner lands on black, and one
lands on white, P3 wins.
Question:
Which player has the best chance
of winning?

Students to make
conjecture on sticky
note, Teacher to collect
and display in like
groups
Strategically select
specific students to
explain the thinking
behind their conjecture.
Model working out the
theoretical probability
using a tree diagram.
Identify P3 as the Lucky
one with the highest
probability of winning.

Were any of the students

correct in their conjectures?
If so, explain working.

Discuss the following:

-Variables

Enabling:
-Less clothing variables

Checklist/Roving
conference/formative/cog
nitive and affective

Extending:

Student can:

-Add an extra accessory

(purple scarf).
-add colour combination
restrictions (eg: barbie
cannot wear red and yellow
together).

-Select appropriate
diagram to order data

Open task:

Students to work in
table groups, but to
record working
independently.
Provide each table
with a paper cut out
barbie and different
coloured cut out
paper clothes
(materials for support)
Clothes items.

-red top
-blue top
-pink top
-black pants
-white shorts
-yellow skirt
Challenge question:
How many different outfits
can barbie make out of these
clothes without repeating an
outfit?
How do you know youve
covered all possible outfit
combinations?

Students to show
working out using
a diagram
(eg:table, tree
diagram) of their
choice.

Further questions:
What is the probability of barbie
wearing a pink top on any given

Students share
and explain
strategies to
class.

What was effective?

What was ineffective?
Why?

Students to
respond to the
following
prompts in
maths
reflective
journal

-An aha! Moment I had in

probability today
-something that was
difficult.
-something I did well
-something I still wonder

-Students diagram is
exhaustive of all possible
outcomes
-Student can answer key
questions correctly
(number of outfits)
-Student can justify
answer using theoretical
probability diagram

-Exhaustive and systematic

lists
-tallying probability
-discuss and display samples
of varying types of probability
diagrams such as lattice
diagrams and tables.

Session 4:
Dependent and
independent
outcomes
We are learning to
calculate the
probability for
dependent
outcomes.

Guessing game: Smarties in a

box
-List the different colours in the
box and the number of each
colour (eg: 5 red, 3 blue, 7 orange
etc). Students to record and keep
a tally
-Ask students to predict which
colour will be pulled out of the box
based on probability?
Why did you predict that?
-Pull smartie out. Ask questions.
Return smartie to box. Repeat 3
times.
Was the class prediction correct?
Was it incorrect? Why might this
be? Does that mean our
probability is wrong?
Repeat activity. This time dont
return the smartie each time.
Question:
Did this change the way you
made predictions? Why?
Did the outcome of one trial
change the probability of the other
outcomes? Explain?
-Discuss:
-Dependent and independent
outcomes.
-Students to brainstorm further
examples.

day? Explain

Solving an open problem:

Table group discussion:

-Students are to work

independently to solve the
following problem and write a
reflection explaining how the
problem was solved using
probability language and
concepts.

What diagrams were more/less

effective? Why?

-Imagine you are playing pass the

parcel with 6 other people. The
parcel is being passed to the left,
and you are the third person to
the left of the starting person.
There are 10 layers in the parcel
and only 3 layers contain a prize.
-Find all possible outcomes of the
theoretical game.
-Calculate the probability of you
winning a prize in each round of
the theoretical game.
-Are there theoretical games in
which you win 2 prizes? All 3? 0
prizes?
-Explain your reasoning
-Show all working

What was difficult?

What did you do well?
What will you do differently next
time?
-Students to respond to the
following prompt in reflective
maths journal:
-What other scenarios can you
think of where this type of
probability can be applied?

Enabler:
-Reduce the number of variables
(eg, number of players, layers,
prizes)

Observation/cognitive/formati
ve

-Provide materials (such as

different coloured Unifix blocks) to
abstractly represent plain layers
and prize layers of the parcel.

-Use appropriate diagrams to

suit problem

Students can

-create an exhaustive list of all

possible outcomes

Extender:
Increase the number of variables.

Write own open ended probability

problem to be solved. Problem
must include dependent outcomes

-Calculate the correct theoretical

probability of each outcome for
each trial

Session 5:
Applying
probability
knowledge to real
life scenario
We are learning to
apply our
probability
knowledge to new
and complex
(many variables)
problems.

Revision of unit

Summative assessment task:

Brainstorm

-completing a real-life open

probability task.

Create a mind map of probability

concepts, descriptions, and
examples that have been covered
so far.
Re-address any remaining
misconceptions where necessary

The car accident Insurance

company.
-Students are provided preorganised data relevant to car
accident insurance.
(eg: number of drivers on the road
per year, number of accidents per
age bracket each year etc.
Number of people in each age
bracket.

Question: Assume the insurance

company charges drivers between
40 and 60 years $250/ year.
Calculate how much the
insurance company should charge
members of every other age
bracket/year so as the charges
could be considered fair. Justify
using probability to support your
answers.

NA

Enabler:

Summative/Cognitive/Work
collection

Work on task with teacher.

Extender:

Collect open task assessments

for marking.

NA

Criteria:
1. Student uses data to
calculate the probability of
accidents occurring in each age
group
2. Student can use probability
meaningfully to calculate fair
insurance charges for each age
group.

Evaluation of unit

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