PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy
BeiningZhang
EdinaHighSchool

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

I.

Introduction

Carryingonatrendofglobalwarmingspanningseveraldecades,theyearof2014
markedtheEarthswarmestyearsince1880(NASA,2014).Consideringthemajorityofthe
increasehasoccurredrecently,itisunsurprisingthatthebillionsoftonsofhumanemissions
releasedeachyearmayhavesomethingtodowiththeextremeimbalance.Evidently,ifhumans
wishtocontinuelivingontheEarth,theyneedtofixtheimbalanceinordertoavoiddestroying
theenvironment.Todothis,newmethodsofenergyproduction,onesthatdontpollutetheair
andharmtheplanet,mustbedevelopedandputinplace.Indeed,manysolutionsinvolving
greenenergyarealreadyinuse,butthereisnodoubtthatimprovementscanbemadetohow
wearespendingourresources.Asdeterminedbyanalysisofvariousmethodsofrenewable
energyproductionandtheirperformancesinsolvingthethreekeyissuesoftheenergycrisis,the
UnitedStatesOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyshouldincreaseitsallocation
offundstooffshorewindpowerandphotovoltaicsolarpower,andreduceitsfundingfor
geothermalpower.
II.

Background

BeginningwiththeestablishmentoftheEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyin1970,the
UnitedStateshasbeentakingactiontoreversethedamagedonetotheEarthbyhumans.Policies
regardingenvironmentalprotectionnotonlyincludepollutioncleanup,butalsoasearchfor
green,lessharmfulsourcesofenergy.In2013,UnitedStatesreachedthepointwhere13%ofits
energycamefromrenewablesources.Coalmadeup39%,naturalgases27%,nuclearpower
19%,andpetroleumandothergases2%(EIA,2014).InhisClimateActionPlanof2013,
PresidentBarackObamaoutlinedaplanthatwouldinvolvetheproductionof8,100megawatts

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

ofrenewableofenergy,enoughtopower2millionhomes,theWhiteHouse(2014)reports.The
futureofenvironmentalprotectionisfocusedonrenewablesourcesofenergy,anditisobvious
why:theyaretheonlysourcesthatareforcertain
in
thefuture.Researchersworkonrefining
currentmethodsandtappingintonewstoresofenergy,butwhenallothersourcesinevitablyrun
out,renewableenergywillbetheonlyreliablesourceforpower.Thus,ifonewishestosolvethe
energycrisisinthelongrun,onemustfirstandforemostexaminethepossibilitiesofrenewable
energy.
Asrenewableenergycontinuesalongitsupwardtrendsinbothusageandimportance,
closeconsiderationofvariousmethodsofrenewableenergyproductionbecomesevenmore
necessary.TheOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy(EERE)hasrequested$774.5
millionforthedevelopmentofrenewableenergyinthe2015fiscalyear(n.d.).Theoptimal
amountofmoneytobeallocatedtoeachtypeofrenewableenergyneedstobedetermined.
Currently,theEEREintendstouse$62.5millionforhydropower,$68.3millionforonshore
windpower,$46.7millionforoffshorewindpower,$61.5millionforgeothermal,$253.2
millionforbiofuel,$131.4millionforphotovoltaicsolarpower,and$150.9millionfor
concentratedsolarpower.InthispaperIwillconcludethebestplanforallocatingthesefunds,
detailinghowmuchshouldgotothedevelopmentofeachkindofrenewableenergy.
Inordertomaketheconclusion,however,asetdefinitionforbestmustbereached.
Thiscanbedonebyfirstconsideringthethreemainproblemsfacedbytheenergyusageof
today:unsustainability,pollution,andunavailability(Mitchell,2014).
ThedependencyoftheUnitedStatesonunsustainablesourcesofenergyisproblematic,
andmoreattentionneedstobegiventothepromotionofrenewableenergy.Unsustainable

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

energyformsincludeanymethodsofenergyproductionwithlimitedsupplies,frompetroleumto
theuraniumneededfornuclearpowerproduction.AccordingtoRoyAnderson(2011),these
sourcesofwillrunoutby2100.Giventhecurrenttrends,eventhatisanoptimisticprediction.
AsChrisMartenson(2014),anenergyanalyst,putsit,Thefutureofenergyisthatwewillnot
beburningfossilfuels,whetheritsin30yearsor100years.Thecurrentmethodssimplywill
notlast,emphasizingonceagaintheneedfortheUnitedStatestofocuseffortsonrenewable
energydevelopment.Renewableenergysourcescanhavevariouslevelsofsustainabilityaswell,
whichstemsfromhowtheyrankontheothertwocriteria:amountofemissionsandcostof
production.
Asidefrombeingunsustainable,thecurrentmethodsofenergyconsumptionare
extremelydetrimentaltotheenvironment.DatafromtheU.S.EnergyInformation
Administration(n.d.)showthattheamountofannualCO
emissionsfromenergyconsumption
2
havebeenincreasingnearlyeveryyearforthelastthreedecades,reaching32,579millionmetric
tonsin2011.Ithascausedanimbalanceinthenaturalcarboncycle,causingglobalwarmingand
unsafebreathingair.Themethodsbeingusedforenergygenerationarethecausethe
combustionoffossilfuelsforelectricity,transportation,andfactoriesmakesup94%ofcarbon
dioxideemissionsintheUnitedStates,theEPA(n.d.)reports.Itistimefornewmethodsof
energyproduction,onesthatarenotonlyrenewable,butarealsoenvironmentallyfriendly.
Lastly,thedemandoftheUnitedStatesforpetroleumandcrudeoilshascreateda
dependenceonothercountriesthatmustbereduced.In2013,roughly33%ofpetroleum
consumedand50%ofcrudeoilprocessedintheUnitedStateswereimported(EIA,n.d.).
ReducingthesenumbersisimportantforstrengtheningtheUnitedStatessecurityandeconomy.

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

Currently,theU.S.isveryvulnerabletodisruptionsinglobalstockandprices(Furman&
Sperling,2013).AsFurmanandSperlingwrite,asidefromprovidingstability,producingmore
energywithintheU.S.willincreasethenumberofjobs,promoteinnovationinenergy
productiontechniquesandtechnology,andraiseGDP.Obviously,makingmoreuseofthe
resourceswithintheU.S.andthusreducingimportswouldbeverysociallyandeconomically
beneficial.Aclearpathtothiseconomicindependenceisprovidedbyrenewableenergysources.
Thesun,rivers,wind,andmoreallrepresentgreatstoresofenergywaitingtobeharnessed.The
NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(2012)reportedthattherenewableenergyresourcesin
theU.S.hadatotalpotentialofproducing481,970terawatthoursofenergy,givenconstraints
suchasthoseduetotheenvironment.Clearly,renewableenergypromisesimmensegrowthfor
theeconomyandthefutureofenergyproduction,whichiswhyitshouldbefocusedonmore.
Potentialsolutionstotheenergycrisismustaddressallthreeoftheseproblems.Each
methodssuccessatdoingsocanbeevaluatedusingapointsystem.Then,baseduponthese
scores,aplanfortheallocationoffundscanbeformed.
III.

CurrentMethods

Therenewablesourcesthatmakeup13%oftheUnitedStatessenergysupplyare
primarilyhydropower,windpower,biofuel,geothermal,andsolarpower(EIA,2015).Eachof
thesemethodsposedifferentproblemsemissionsreleasedinproduction,unreliability,andhigh
costs,tonamesomeaswellasuniquebenefits.Thissectionwillassesstheprosandconsofthe
mainmethodsstatedabove,allowingforaconclusiontobemadeaboutthebestenergyplan
fortheUnitedStates.
A. Hydropower

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

Hydroelectricpowerisdefinedaspowergeneratedbyconvertingthemechanicalenergy
offallingwaterintoelectricalenergy.Themostconventionalwayofdoingthisisthroughthe
useofdams.Thepotentialenergyofthedammedwaterisusedtoturnturbines,thusallowingit
togenerateelectricity.
Thepotentialofhydropowerisimmense.Thereareabout82,600damsintheUnited
States,butonly3%ofthemarecurrentlyinuseforgenerationofpower(Murphy,2009).
MakinguseofevensomeofthesecouldincreaseenergyproductionoftheU.S.byasubstantial
amount.
Inaddition,onceadamisbuilt,thecostsofenergyproductionusinghydropowerare
verylow.Thewater,thesourcefromwhichthepowerisbeinggenerated,isalreadyinexistence,
anddoesnotneedtogothroughextensiveprocessingortransportationbeforebeingusedto
generateenergy.
Themajorityofcostsassociatedwithhydropowerareduetotheinitialcostofbuilding
thedamandfacilities,whichcanreachseveralbillionsofdollars(Wiseman,1990).Other
concernsincludedisruptingwildlifeanddangersofflooding.
B. Wind
Windpowerusesturbinestogenerateenergyfromtheflowofairaroundtheturbine
blades.Theuseofwindpowerforenergyisdividedintotwocategories,onshoreandoffshore.
Placementintothesecategoriesdependsonlyonwheretheturbineisbuilt,onlandorwater,
respectively.
OnshorewindpowerhasbeenusedbytheUnitedStatesforhundredsofyears,andin
comparison,offshorewindpowerisextremelynew(Motavalli,2005).Becauseofthelackof

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

technologicaldevelopmentsandknowledgeregardingoffshorewindpower,thecostfor
operatingaturbineinthewaterisrelativelyhigherthanthatforoneonland.
Likehydropower,windpowerismorereadilyavailablethanmanyotherrenewable
sources.AsNationalGeographic(n.d.)writes,Aslongasthesunshines,thewindwillblow.
Andaslongasthewindblows,peoplewillharnessittopowertheirlives.
Downsidesofwindpowerarenoisepollution,thelargeamountsofspacerequiredfor
windfarmsandsubsequentmarringofscenery,anddangertowildlife.
C. Biofuel
Biofuelinvolvestheconversionofbiomass,whichincludeslivingorganismssuchas
plants,intofuel.Manybiofuelsaremadefromtheorganicmatterinplantwalls,cellulose
(Bracmort,2012).Apopularexampleofthisisethanol,whichcanbeburnedtopowervehicles
directlyjustlikefossilfuels.
Biofuels,accordingBracmort,offerawaytowardseconomicindependenceandcleaner
environment.Cellulosicbiofuelsareinparticularpromisingastheyarenotmadefromfood
directly,butfromtheresidueleftoverbyplants.Thus,productionofthefuelscannotbe
consideredawasteoffood.
Whilebiofuelsaremorebeneficialthanfossilfuelsinthelongrun,studieshaveshown
thattheyactuallyreleasemoreemissionsintheshortterm(Cappiello,2014).Numerousother
studieshaveindicatedthattheremaybesomeunclearconsequencesofburningbiofuels.
D. Geothermal
Geothermalemploysthesteamandhotwaterfrombeneaththeearthtopowerturbines,
thusgeneratingelectricity(Sweet,2010).

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

Unlikeotherrenewablesourcesofenergysuchassolarpower,geothermalpowercanbe
generatedatanytime.However,asSweetwrites,geothermalenergyisdifficulttolocateand
expensivetoextract.Thisisveryapparentinthedistributionofgeothermalpowerplantsinthe
UnitedStates.Mostallarelocatedinthewest,whichraisesissuesofavailabilityforresidentsin
otherareas.Inaddition,geothermalpowerplantscantakeovertenyearstobuild,alargenumber
incomparisontoayearforsolarpowerfacilityandfourtofiveyearsforawindfarm(Nagata,
2014).
E. Solar
Currently,twomajorbranchesofsolarpowerexistphotovoltaic(PV)andconcentrated
solarpower(CSP).Thetwomethodsdifferonhowenergyfromthesunisused.Photovoltaic
cellsusethephotovoltaiceffecttoconvertthesunslightdirectlyintoelectricity.Concentrated
solarpowerconcentratesthesunsbeamstogenerateheat,andfromthat,electricity.
Thephotovoltaicmethodrequirestheretobesunlightinordertogeneratepower,agreat
disadvantageparticularlyforthoseregionsclosertothepoles.CSPtechnologydoesnotrequire
constantsunlight,butcosts$243.10/MWh,nearlytwicetheamountforthephotovoltaicmethod,
andmorethananyotherkindofenergyplant(EIA,2012).
Largepopulationsandavailablelandfordevelopmentallowphotovoltaiccellsgreat
generationalpotential,totallingto280,900TWhforurbanandruralutilityscalePVandrooftop
PVs(Lopez,Roberts,Heimiller,Blair,&Porro,2012).ThepotentialforCSPisonly116,100
TWh,lowincomparisontoitsPVcounterpartbutamazinglyhighincomparisontoother
technologieslikehydropower.DespitemakingupthesmallestpartoftheUnitedStates

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

renewableenergy,solarpowerevidentlyhasthegreatestpotentialasarenewablesourceof
energy.
IV.

Analysis
A. Method

Asmentionedpreviously,methodsofenergyproductionaretobeevaluatedupontheir
successatsolvingthreeissues:unsustainability,pollution,andunavailability.
Everymethodexaminedaboveisaformofrenewableenergy.Thus,eachmeetsthe
requirementofbeingsustainable,seeminglyequally.Thisisnotfullytrue,assustainabilityis
affectedbythemethodsabilitytoreducepollutionanditsavailability.So,thesedifferenceswill
beaccountedforinthepollutionandavailabilityscores.Ifthevariationswereincludedina
sustainabilityscoreaswell,thedifferencesbetweenmethodswouldbeexaggerated,resultingin
inaccuratefindings.
Effectivenessatdecreasingpollutioncanbemeasuredinhowmanytonsofemissionscan
beavoidedifthemethodweretobeusedatitsfullcapacity.TheOhioDepartmentof
Transportation(2008)estimatesthatproductionofelectricityusingcoalreleases2.10poundsof
carbonemissionsperkilowatthour.Multiplyingthisnumberbythetechnicalpotentialwillgive
thepossibleamountofreducedcarbonemissions.Thetechnicalpotentialis,asdefinedbythe
NREL(2012),theachievableenergygenerationofaparticulartechnologygivensystem
performance,topographiclimitations,environmental,andlanduseconstraints.Usingtotal
technicalpotential,asopposedtothecurrentamountofreducedemissionsduetotheuseofthe
method,removesanyunfairadvantagepopularmethodsmayhaveovermoreundevelopedones.
Itfocusesonlyonthelongrunanditspossibilitiesandisnotaffectedbyanypoorpolicy

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

10

decisionsintheshortterm.Therefore,thiswayofcalculatingthepollutionscoreprovidesavery
goodindicationofhowhelpfultotheenvironmentthemethodinquestionis.
Availability,likepollutionreduction,canbemeasuredquantitatively.Theavailability
scoreisbaseduponthelevelizedcostofenergy(LCOE).TheLCOEmeasuresthecostof
providingonekilowatthourofenergy,andincludesinitthecostsofbuilding,maintenance,
fuels,andmore(EIA,2014).Therefore,itisthebestmeasurementofthetruecostofamethod.
Todetermineascore,ascaledpointsystemwillbeused.Forbothpollutionreduction
andavailability,themethodswillbelistedinorderofproficiencybasedupontheirnumerical
data.Then,eachmethodwillbeassignedascorefrom0to100,withtheleasteffectivemethod
receivingascoreof0andthemosteffectivereceivingascoreof100.Then,othermethods
performanceincomparisontothemostandleasteffectivewilldeterminetheirscorefrom0100.
Then,thepollutionandavailabilityscoreswillbeaddedtogethertodeterminethefinal
score.Usingthesescores,theamountofmoneythatshouldgotowardseachmethodcanbe
determined.Thisisdonebyfirstsummingallthefinalscores.Then,thepercentofthistotal
scorethatisamethodsfinalscoregivesthepercentoftherequested$774.5millionthatthe
methodshouldreceive.
Thisapproachfordeterminingthebestmethodiseffectivebecausefirst,itplacesequal
weightonthetwocriteriaunderconsideration.Acertainmethodcanbeveryenvironmentally
friendlybutextremelycostlytouse,orviceversa.Onewouldwishforthemethodsscoreto
reflectboththeseequally,andgivingboththepollutionandavailabilityscoresamaximumof
100achievesthissuccessfully.Secondly,thisapproachtakesawaythedifficultyofconverting
betweenunits.Itwouldbedifficulttocomparetonstokilowatthourstodollars,andthis

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

11

approachavoidsthat.Lastly,theapproachpreventsresultsfrombeingskewedbythebiasofthe
onechoosingthebestmethod.Theuniformscoringsystemprovidesaquantitativewayof
analysis,onethatisfreeofanybias.
B. Ranking
Thedataforthevariousmethodsexploredabovearesummarizedbelow.Amountof
pollutionreductionismeasuredinmillionsoftonsandusesdatafromtheNREL(2012).The
levelizedcostofelectricity(LCOE)ismeasuredindollarspermegawatthour,anddatais
providedbytheEIA(2012).Then,usingtherankingsystemdetailedabove,scoresare
concludedandlistedbelow.
Table4.1:ScoresofVariousMethodsofRenewableEnergyProduction
Method

Amountof
Pollution
Reduction

Pollution
Score

LCOE

Availability
Score

TotalScore

Hydropower

.315

84.5

18.8

18.8

Wind
(onshore)

34.3

11.4

80.3

16.6

28.0

Wind
(offshore)

17.9

5.91

204.1

80.0

85.9

Biofuel

.525

.0705

102.6

28.0

28.1

Geothermal

32.9

10.9

47.9

10.9

Solar(PV)

298

100

130.0

42.1

142.1

Solar(CSP)

122

40.9

243.1

100

140.9

Basedupontheseresultsfoundinthispaper,theoptimalamountoffundsinmillionsof
dollarseachmethodshouldreceivewasfoundandislistedbelow.Theoriginalamounts(in

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

12

millionsofdollars)requestedbytheEEREandthepercentdifferencesbetweenvaluesarealso
givenforpurposesofcomparison.
Table4.2:AmountofFundingforVariousMethodsofRenewableEnergyProduction
Method

RequestedAmount

OptimalAmount

PercentDifference

Hydropower

62.5

32.0

48.8%

Wind(onshore)

68.3

47.7

30.2%

Wind(offshore)

46.7

146.3

+213.3%

Biofuel

61.5

47.9

22.1%

Geothermal

253.2

18.6

92.7%

Solar(PV)

131.4

242.0

+84.2%

Solar(CSP)

150.9

240.0

+59.0%

C. SummaryofResults
Fromthepercentdifferencesitcanbeseenthattheprimarychangethatneedstobemade
isanincreaseinfundsforoffshorewindpower,followedbyadecreaseinfundsforgeothermal
powerandanincreaseforphotovoltaicsolarpower.
V.

Action

IwillhelptheenergycrisisandpromotethesolutionIhavedeterminedtobeoptimalby
creatingawebsiteaimingtoeducateothersonthemethodIhavedeterminedtobethebest.
Onepagewillbededicatedtobackgroundinformationontheenergycrisisandtheimportanceof
renewableenergyinsolvingit.Then,eachmethodwillhaveitsownseparatepagethatincludes
detailsontheprocessesofproduction,prosandcons,andthedata,suchastheLCOE,usedto

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

13

findthebestsolution.Lastly,apagewillcontaininformationonhowonecanhelptheenergy
crisis,alongwithadditionalresourcesforinformation.
RecenttechnologicaldevelopmentshaveledtotheInternetbecomingamajorsourceof
receivingandspreadinginformation.Therefore,providinginformationthroughawebsitehasa
greaterchanceofhavingitreadthanifitwasprovidedthroughabook,poster,orevena
newspaperarticle.
VI.

Conclusion

Inordertoresolvetheenergycrisis,theUnitedStatesmustimproveitspoliciestowards
renewableenergy.Fundingandresearchforoffshorewindpowerandphotovoltaicsolarpower
shouldbesubstantiallyincreased,whilemoneyforgeothermalpowershouldbedecreased.Just
burningadifferent,cleanerlimitedresourceisstalling,notresolving,thecrisis.Renewables
aretheonlysolutionsthatcanlast.Therefore,theUnitedStatesneedstofocusontheexpansion
ofrenewableenergy,forthisistheonlywaytotrulyfixtheenvironmentaldamageandensurea
stablefuturefortheworld.

PlanningfortheFutureofRenewableEnergy

14

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