LaurenBenson

CAPSresearchpaperoutline
Draft#1

I.
Introduction
TheHungerGames.TheDaVinciCode.Twilight.FiftyShadesofGrey.Thesenoveltitlesare
someofthemostwellknowninthenation,yetthereasoningbehindtheirsuccessisonefor
investigation.Takeamoment,andcomeupwithalongerlistofthemostpopularcontemporary
booksyoucanthinkof.DotheyincludetitlesandgenresliketheonesIalreadymentioned?Full
ofvampires,werewolves,sexuallyexplicitscenes,andalackofadmirablesentencestructure?
Myquestion,uponembarkingonmyCAPstonejourney,istofigureoutwhyexactlythesuccess
ofliteratureappearstobebasedonthemostarbitraryofcriteria.Iwouldthinkthatthemost
popularandsuccessfulbooksaretheonesthatarethemostwellwrittenandperfectly
constructed,withheartstoppingplotlinesandexquisitelydevelopedcharacters.Ofcourse,there
isanabundantofthesesortofnovels,asthereisnolackfortalentedauthors.Whyisitthen,that
somanyoftheNewYorkTimesbestsellingnovelsarethosecontainingobsessivelovestories
aboutvampires?
Formyproject,Iseektodelveintothepathofliterature,andwhatwilltrulydeterminea
bookssuccess.Iamnotthefirsttoaskthisquestion,astherehavebeenaplethoraofstudiesand
surveysconductedtryingtoextractthissecretofsuccess.Asistheprocedurenowadays,
inevitablyacomputermustbeconsultedatsomepointwhenattemptingtoanswerwidespread,
ambiguousquestions.Thesestudieshaveattemptedtoquantifyvastamountsofdataonthis
subject,processit,andmakeconclusionsaboutthereasoningbehindthisphenomena.Somehave
beenmoderatelysuccessful,otherslessso.Themostnotableoneshavecomeupwithoriginal

algorithmsattemptingtopredictthesuccessofapresoldnovel.Thisishardlyauniqueconcept.
Predictorsofsuccessareseenalloverthemarket,frommusictobusinessestoadvertisements.A
songmusthavexyandzinordertoappealtoanaudiencebroadenoughtobeplayedona
popularradiostation.Abillboardmusthavethesecolorswiththisamountofwordsinthisfont
inordertobenoticedbythepublic.Theattempttoanalyzeandconquerthemindofthepublicto
makealivingisalmostafieldofstudyonitsown.Whatmakesprocessingandanalyzingthis
sortofdatasodifficultisthequalityofthedataitself.Howdoyouquantifythoughts?Howdo
youconvertpeoplesdesiresandoftentimesunconsciousopinionsintonumbersabletobe
organizedandstudied?
Luckily,Iamnotthefirstpersontoaskthisquestion.Thepreviouslystatedstudiesand
surveyspertainingtothistopicareintegraltomyproject.Thefirst,andmostnotableofthese
studieswasoneconductedatStonyBrookUniversity.Inthisstudy,samplesofliteraturewere
usedtodeterminespecificcriteriathatmakesabooksuccessful.Thiscriteriawasthen
compactedandusedtocreatestatisticalstylometrythatissupposedtobeabletopredicta
specificnovelssuccessonceitisreleased.Thesestatistics,whichclaimtobe85%accurate,are
supposedtoanalyzeanovelslanguageuseandotherstylisticcriteriainaccordancewiththe
desiresofthegeneralpublic.Whilethesestatisticsareadmirable,anduponfurtherexamination
appeartobeaccurate,Ihaveidentifiedflawsinthisstudyaswellascountlessothersattempting
todothesame.Asanindividualfiercelyloyaltothegreatclassicalauthorsoftheliterature
world(Hemmingway,Dickens,Fitzgerald,Ellison...)Iopposetheideathattheirsuccesscan
bequantified.Nocomputerormathematicalformulacouldeverhopetoovercomethegenius
thatistheexceptionalhumanmind.Yes,computerscannowwriteAlevelessaysandreplicate

yearsofworkandstudyinamerehour,buttheyhaveyettocrossthebridgeintohumangenius.
Throughattemptingtoreplicatethesetechnologicalstudies,bycreatingmyownprogrammeant
tostatisticallyanalyzethequalityofwriting,Ihopetoprovemyownprogramwrongandfind
insteadthatthereisnosuchformulatothebeautyofthewrittenlanguage.
Tobegin,IwilldefinewhatIbelievetobetheaestheticsofqualitywriting.Formy
purposes,Iamtalkingaboutonlytheelitewritersthosewhohavealreadymasteredwrittenthe
writtenlanguage.Grammarrules,spelling,basicwordchoiceandotherlowlevelcriteriadonot
applytotheseauthors,astheyhavealreadysurpassedthesteppingstonestobeinggoodwriters.
Everybookthatiscurrentlypublishedandonthemarket,whetherornotareaderbelievesitto
bequality,iswrittenbyanaccomplishedauthor.Onlytheeliteevermakeittothepointof
havingtheirworkpublished,soonecansafelyassumethatallpublishedauthorshaveasolid
baseandknowhowtoeffectivelywrite.Themarketofpublishedliteratureistheolympicsof
writing.Publishingabookisaprocessunderratedinitsdifficultygiventhesheermassof
publishedliterature.Thatbeingsaid,thestandardsofqualitywritingstillwildlyvarycross
genre,crossaudience,andcrossculture.
II.
III.
IV.
V.

VI.
VII.

I.

Overviewofpaststudies(ie.stonybrook)
fieldworkexplanations
A. graphs,datasets,surveys
Interpretationsofresults
Explanationofprogram
A. criteriaused
B. decisionsmade
Conclusionsvisavisresearchquestion
A. Whattrulymakessuccessfulliterature?
Conclusion
Introduction:
overviewofpopularliterature,includingtheclassicsaswellaspopculturehits.

 Examples:DickensversusStephenieMeyer:Whyaretheyequally
popular?
Hasourtasteinbooksbecomeworseovertheyears?
Doweevenindividuallylikethesebooks,orarewejustinfluencedby
theirpopularitytobeconvincedwelikethem?
Whatmakesabooktrulygood?Ifitisthequalityofwriting,thenwhyare
suchterriblywrittenbookssopopular?
ResearchQuestion:Towhatextenthaverecentstatistical"trend"studies
exploringsuccessratesofnovelsshiftedourdefinitionof"qualityliterature"?

II.Overviewofpaststudies
Ratherthanbethefirstattempttocomputationallyanalyzeliterature,Iplantouse
pastattemptstocreatemyownconclusions
Explanationofhowalgorithmshavebeenusedtotrytoquantifythequalityof
writing
i.e.decideoncertaincriteriathatdeemsanoveltobesuccessful,and
programsthecomputertocompileallstatisticsrelatedtosuchcriteria
StonyBrookStudy
explanationofstudy
Firstrealattempttousealgorithmsforthispurpose
Otherstudies
howtheydifferfromStonyBrook
howtheyareinspiringmyownprogram
ExplanationofwhichcriteriaIfindthemostusefulfromthesestudies
WhichstudiesdoIfinduseless/lackcriterionvalidity,andwhichonesI
findtobevalid

III.FieldworkExplanations
Beginbytalkingaboutsurveys
GothroughprocessofhowIdecidedtosurveypeople
criteriaused,questionsasked
includesamplesofsomeoftheliteratureparagraphsIshowedtopeople
andexplainwhyIusedthoseparticularsamples
DescribehowIusesurveydatatodesignmyprogram

IV.Interpretationsofresults
dependingonhowmanysurveysIhave,andhowmuchdataIhave,Illcategorize
myresultsbasedonwhatevercriteriaIendupkeeping
discussoutliers,discusshowsurveysandstudiesarevalid

 Interprettheactualresults
howdotheyrespondtomyresearchquestion?
aretheyactuallysayingwhatIhopedtheywouldsay?
Aretheresultsdisappointingoruplifting?(ie,whatdopeoplebasetheir
acceptanceorrejectionofliteratureon?
WhichresultswillIdecidetokeep,orwillIuseallofthem?
WillIhavetochangemysurveyquestions/changemyapproachifIam
notgettingtheresultsIneed?

V.Explanationofprogram
briefdescriptionofhowwritingabasicjavascriptprogramisrelevanttomy
project
compare/contrastmyowncodetothatofthepreviousstudiesIanalyzed
TalkaboutwhichcriteriaIdecidedtouseandwhy
Istheprogramsuccessful?DoesitprovewhatIwantittoprove?
BriefdescriptionofthestatisticsIcameupwith
Analyzesuchstatistics
DothesesupportthedataIgatheredfrommyactualsurveys?Asin,doesthe
computermatchwhatrealpeoplearesaying?

VI.Conclusionsvisavisresearchquestion
Basedonmyfinaldata/statistics,whathaveIlearned/concluded?
Havemyopinionschanged?
HaveIprovenanythingthatpreviousstudiesneglectedtoshow?
Domyownresultsnegatethepreviousstudies,orsupportthem?
Describemyactualconclusions:Whatmakessuccessfulliteraturebasedonmy
results,anddescribeitsrelevancetoreallifeopinions?

VII.Conclusion
Explainpointofentireproject,andwhyitsimportant?