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Krause-Satawa 2
Figure 2: Wheel
Krause-Satawa 3
P (1 W ) =0.500.3333=0.16665
0.50
win
0.333
win
P (1 L )=0.500.6667=0.33335
2
0.25
spins
0.666
0.25
P (2 W ) =0.250.3333=0.083325
0.333
lose
Bankrupt:
no spin
P (2 LW )=0.250.66670.3333=0.05555278
2
P
P ( B ) =0.25
P ( winning )=P ( 1W )+ P ( 2 W ) + P ( 2 LW )
0.16665+0.083325+0.05555278
0.3055
P(losing)=P ( 1 L ) + P
0.33335+0.11112222+0.25
0.6945
0.666
lose
Krause-Satawa 4
1W
$3
0.16665
1L
-$2
0.33335
2W
$3
0.0833250
0
2LW
$3
0.0555278
0
2LL
-$2
0.11112222
B
-$2
0.2500000
0
0.
EV =3 ( 0.16665 )2 ( 0.33335 ) +3 083325)+3(0555278)-2(0.11112222)-2(0.25)
$ 0.47
The expected value a user of this game can expect to win is -$0.47. This means that
over a series of trials, the user can expect to lose 47 cents.
Krause-Satawa 5
Krause-Satawa 6
or 32% (see table 1). This is very accurate since it is only one percent different than the
expected frequency.
The second simulation that was used was by using the random integer function
on the TI-nspire. The equation that was plugged into the calculator was
randInt(1,10000,500). This equation was chosen because the calculator could not print
random numbers in decimal form. Therefore all of the numbers had to be multiplied by
10000. Since the probability of winning was 0.3055, that number was multiplied to get
3055.0. Then the range of random numbers that would be printed is from 1 to 10,000,
hence the (1, 10000). And any numbers that were 3055 or less would represent
winning. And since there needed to be 500 trials the (, 500) was added to the calculator
input. The total number of outputs that was less than 3055 was 146 out of the total 500
outputs. This is a relative frequency of about 29.2% wins. This is close to the estimated
frequency of 33% wins.
The third simulator was a Java program. The setup of the program was mostly if
statements. The program was made so that it would print out random numbers from 1 to
20 to represent pulling a chip from the box. This variable was called pull. And the
program was also set up to print a random number between 1 and 3; this represents the
1 out of three chance of winning on the spinner. This number was called spin. See
Appendix A for more detail on the set up of the program. When the program was
executed, one of the outcomes was a total of 1285 wins 3716 losses. This is a relative
frequency of 25.7% wins.
Krause-Satawa 7
All of the three simulations were accurate; this is known because all three were
relatively close to the estimated frequency of 33% wins. Even though the first simulation
was the closest to the estimated value of 33%, the third simulation with 5,000 trials was
the most accurate. This is assuming that the wheel is perfectly random, and no one
cheats while drawing a chip from the box. According to the Law of Large Numbers, as a
sample size grows, its mean will get closer and closer to the average of the whole
population, or the estimated value. And the third simulation had the largest number of
trials; therefore it was the most accurate.
Krause-Satawa 8
Trial
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
1
2
1
B
B
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
B
1
2
1
1
1
B
1
1
1
B
2
2
1
1
Spin
l
w
w
l
l
w
w
l
w
w
w
w
l
w
ll
l
l
l
l
w
l
w
l
ll
ll
l
l
Win or
lose?
lose
win
win
lose
lose
win
win
lose
win
win
win
win
lose
win
lose
lose
lose
lose
lose
win
lose
win
lose
lose
lose
lose
lose
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
B
1
2
1
1
1
B
B
B
1
1
B
1
1
2
B
1
B
2
B
2
2
2
l
l
ll
l
w
l
l
l
l
l
w
l
l
w
w
l
l
l
ll
l
lw
ll
ll
lose
lose
lose
lose
win
lose
lose
lose
lose
lose
win
lose
lose
win
win
lose
lose
lose
lose
lose
win
lose
lose
Appendix A
Java program
if ( pull1 pull5)
If the program finds that the pull value is between 1 and 5, then the program will print
out the value of the line that the trial is on, the number that represents the pull, and it will
tell the user that there is no spin since it is a bankrupt and they lost,
System .out . println(count+ \t + pull+ \tNo spin Lose);
wins = wins + 1;
System.out.println(count + "\t" + pull + "\t" + spin +"\tWin");
}
if (pull >=16 && pull <= 20 && spin == 2){
loss = loss + 1;
System.out.println(count + "\t" + pull + "\t" + spin +"\tLose");
}
if (pull >=16 && pull <= 20 && spin==3){
loss = loss + 1;
System.out.println(count + "\t" + pull + "\t" + spin +"\tLose");
}}
total = loss + wins;
System.out.println("Total\tLosses\tWins");
System.out.println(total + "\t" + loss + "\t" + wins);
}}