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This article is about a rise in the general price level. For etary policy through the setting of interest rates, through
the expansion of the early universe, see Ination (cos- open market operations, and through the setting of bankmology). For other uses, see Ination (disambiguation). ing reserve requirements.[14]
In economics, ination is a sustained increase in the
general price level of goods and services in an economy
over a period of time.[1] When the general price level
rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, ination reects a reduction in the
purchasing power per unit of money a loss of real value
in the medium of exchange and unit of account within
the economy.[2][3] A chief measure of price ination is
the ination rate, the annualized percentage change in a
general price index (normally the consumer price index)
over time.[4] The opposite of ination is deation.
1 History
U.S. Historical Inflation Rate
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Ination rates around the world in 2013, per International Monetary Fund.
RELATED DEFINITIONS
These goods and services would experience a price in- in the Weimar Republic of Germany is a notable examcrease as the value of each coin is reduced.[18]
ple.
Song Dynasty China introduced the practice of printing
paper money in order to create at currency.[19] During
the Mongol Yuan Dynasty, the government spent a great
deal of money ghting costly wars, and reacted by printing more, leading to ination.[20] The problem of ination became so severe that the people stopped using paper
money, which they saw as worthless paper.[21] Fearing
the ination that plagued the Yuan dynasty, the Ming Dynasty initially rejected the use of paper money, using only
copper coins. The dynasty did not issue paper currency
until 1375.[21]
2 Related denitions
3
core ination rate to get a better estimate of long-term
future ination trends overall.[33]
Measures
N ominalGDP
RealGDP
3.1
Issues in measuring
EFFECTS
4 Eects
4.1 General
An increase in the general level of prices implies a decrease in the purchasing power of the currency. That
is, when the general level of prices rise, each monetary
unit buys fewer goods and services. The eect of ination is not distributed evenly in the economy, and as a
consequence there are hidden costs to some and benets
to others from this decrease in the purchasing power of
money. For example, with ination, those segments in society which own physical assets, such as property, stock
etc., benet from the price/value of their holdings going
up, when those who seek to acquire them will need to
pay more for them. Their ability to do so will depend on
the degree to which their income is xed. For example,
increases in payments to workers and pensioners often
lag behind ination, and for some people income is xed.
Also, individuals or institutions with cash assets will experience a decline in the purchasing power of the cash.
Increases in the price level (ination) erode the real value
of money (the functional currency) and other items with
an underlying monetary nature.
Debtors who have debts with a xed nominal rate of interest will see a reduction in the real interest rate as
the ination rate rises. The real interest on a loan is the
nominal rate minus the ination rate. The formula R =
N-I approximates the correct answer as long as both the
nominal interest rate and the ination rate are small. The
correct equation is r = n/i where r, n and i are expressed
as ratios (e.g. 1.2 for +20%, 0.8 for 20%). As an example, when the ination rate is 3%, a loan with a nominal interest rate of 5% would have a real interest rate of
approximately 2% (in fact, its 1.94%). Any unexpected
increase in the ination rate would decrease the real interest rate. Banks and other lenders adjust for this ination
risk either by including an ination risk premium to xed
interest rate loans, or lending at an adjustable rate.
4.3
4.2
Positive
Negative
5
Hyperination If ination becomes too high, it can
cause people to severely curtail their use of the currency, leading to an acceleration in the ination rate.
High and accelerating ination grossly interferes
with the normal workings of the economy, hurting
its ability to supply goods. Hyperination can lead
to the abandonment of the use of the countrys currency (for example as in North Korea) leading to the
adoption of an external currency (dollarization).[44]
6
Room to maneuver The primary tools for controlling
the money supply are the ability to set the discount
rate, the rate at which banks can borrow from the
central bank, and open market operations, which are
the central banks interventions into the bonds market with the aim of aecting the nominal interest
rate. If an economy nds itself in a recession with already low, or even zero, nominal interest rates, then
the bank cannot cut these rates further (since negative nominal interest rates are impossible) in order
to stimulate the economy this situation is known as
a liquidity trap. A moderate level of ination tends
to ensure that nominal interest rates stay suciently
above zero so that if the need arises the bank can cut
the nominal interest rate.
MundellTobin eect The Nobel laureate Robert
Mundell noted that moderate ination would induce
savers to substitute lending for some money holding
as a means to nance future spending. That substitution would cause market clearing real interest
rates to fall.[47] The lower real rate of interest would
induce more borrowing to nance investment. In a
similar vein, Nobel laureate James Tobin noted that
such ination would cause businesses to substitute
investment in physical capital (plant, equipment,
and inventories) for money balances in their asset
portfolios. That substitution would mean choosing
the making of investments with lower rates of real
return. (The rates of return are lower because the
investments with higher rates of return were already
being made before.)[48] The two related eects
are known as the MundellTobin eect. Unless
the economy is already overinvesting according
to models of economic growth theory, that extra
investment resulting from the eect would be seen
as positive.
CAUSES
5 Causes
Historically, a great deal of economic literature was concerned with the question of what causes ination and what
eect it has. There were dierent schools of thought as
to the causes of ination. Most can be divided into two
broad areas: quality theories of ination and quantity theories of ination. The quality theory of ination rests on
the expectation of a seller accepting currency to be able
to exchange that currency at a later time for goods that are
desirable as a buyer. The quantity theory of ination rests
on the quantity equation of money that relates the money
supply, its velocity, and the nominal value of exchanges.
Instability with deation Economist S.C. Tsaing noted
Adam Smith and David Hume proposed a quantity theory
that once substantial deation is expected, two imof ination for money, and a quality theory of ination for
portant eects will appear; both a result of money
production.
holding substituting for lending as a vehicle for
saving.[49] The rst was that continually falling Currently, the quantity theory of money is widely acprices and the resulting incentive to hoard money cepted as an accurate model of ination in the long
will cause instability resulting from the likely in- run. Consequently, there is now broad agreement among
creasing fear, while money hoards grow in value, economists that in the long run, the ination rate is esthat the value of those hoards are at risk, as peo- sentially dependent on the growth rate of money supple realize that a movement to trade those money ply relative to the growth of the economy. However, in
hoards for real goods and assets will quickly drive the short and medium term ination may be aected by
those prices up. Any movement to spend those supply and demand pressures in the economy, and inuhoards once started would become a tremendous enced by the relative elasticity of wages, prices and inter[51]
The question of whether the short-term efavalanche, which could rampage for a long time be- est rates.
fore it would spend itself.[50] Thus, a regime of fects last long enough to be important is the central topic
long-term deation is likely to be interrupted by pe- of debate between monetarist and Keynesian economists.
riodic spikes of rapid ination and consequent real In monetarism prices and wages adjust quickly enough to
economic disruptions. Moderate and stable ination make other factors merely marginal behavior on a general
would avoid such a seesawing of price movements. trend-line. In the Keynesian view, prices and wages adjust at dierent rates, and these dierences have enough
Financial market ineciency with deation The sec- eects on real output to be long term in the view of
5.1
Keynesian view
people in an economy.
major role in determining moderate levels of ination, although there are dierences of opinion on how important
it is. For example, Monetarist economists believe that the
5.1 Keynesian view
link is very strong; Keynesian economists, by contrast,
typically emphasize the role of aggregate demand in the
Keynesian economics proposes that changes in money economy rather than the money supply in determining insupply do not directly aect prices, and that visible ina- ation. That is, for Keynesians, the money supply is only
tion is the result of pressures in the economy expressing one determinant of aggregate demand.
themselves in prices.
Some Keynesian economists also disagree with the noThere are three major types of ination, as part of what tion that central banks fully control the money supply,
Robert J. Gordon calls the "triangle model":[52]
arguing that central banks have little control, since the
money supply adapts to the demand for bank credit is Demand-pull ination is caused by increases in ag- sued by commercial banks. This is known as the theory
gregate demand due to increased private and gov- of endogenous money, and has been advocated strongly
ernment spending, etc. Demand ination encour- by post-Keynesians as far back as the 1960s. It has today
ages economic growth since the excess demand and become a central focus of Taylor rule advocates. This pofavourable market conditions will stimulate invest- sition is not universally accepted banks create money
by making loans, but the aggregate volume of these loans
ment and expansion.
diminishes as real interest rates increase. Thus, central
Cost-push ination, also called supply shock ina- banks can inuence the money supply by making money
tion, is caused by a drop in aggregate supply (poten- cheaper or more expensive, thus increasing or decreasing
tial output). This may be due to natural disasters, or its production.
increased prices of inputs. For example, a sudden
decrease in the supply of oil, leading to increased A fundamental concept in ination analysis is the relaoil prices, can cause cost-push ination. Produc- tionship between ination and unemployment, called the
ers for whom oil is a part of their costs could then Phillips curve. This model suggests that there is a tradepass this on to consumers in the form of increased o between price stability and employment. Therefore,
prices. Another example stems from unexpectedly some level of ination could be considered desirable in
high Insured losses, either legitimate (catastrophes) order to minimize unemployment. The Phillips curve
or fraudulent (which might be particularly prevalent model described the U.S. experience well in the 1960s
but failed to describe the combination of rising inain times of recession).
tion and economic stagnation (sometimes referred to as
Built-in ination is induced by adaptive expecta- stagation) experienced in the 1970s.
tions, and is often linked to the "price/wage spiral". Thus, modern macroeconomics describes ination using
It involves workers trying to keep their wages up a Phillips curve that shifts (so the trade-o between inwith prices (above the rate of ination), and rms ation and unemployment changes) because of such matpassing these higher labor costs on to their cus- ters as supply shocks and ination becoming built into
tomers as higher prices, leading to a 'vicious circle'. the normal workings of the economy. The former refers
Built-in ination reects events in the past, and so to such events as the oil shocks of the 1970s, while the
might be seen as hangover ination.
latter refers to the price/wage spiral and inationary exDemand-pull theory states that ination accelerates when
aggregate demand increases beyond the ability of the
economy to produce (its potential output). Hence,
any factor that increases aggregate demand can cause
ination.[53] However, in the long run, aggregate demand
can be held above productive capacity only by increasing
the quantity of money in circulation faster than the real
growth rate of the economy. Another (although much less
common) cause can be a rapid decline in the demand for
money, as happened in Europe during the Black Death, or
in the Japanese occupied territories just before the defeat
of Japan in 1945.
The eect of money on ination is most obvious when
governments nance spending in a crisis, such as a civil
war, by printing money excessively. This sometimes leads
to hyperination, a condition where prices can double in
a month or less. Money supply is also thought to play a
Unemployment
CAUSES
grows or shrinks. They consider scal policy, or government spending and taxation, as ineective in controlling
ination.[57] The monetarist economist Milton Friedman
famously stated, Ination is always and everywhere a
monetary phenomenon. [58]
Monetarists assert that the empirical study of monetary
history shows that ination has always been a monetary
phenomenon. The quantity theory of money, simply
stated, says that any change in the amount of money in
a system will change the price level. This theory begins
with the equation of exchange:
MV = PQ
where
M is the nominal quantity of money.
V is the velocity of money in nal expenditures;
P is the general price level;
Q is an index of the real value of nal expenditures;
9
Rational expectations theory holds that economic actors
look rationally into the future when trying to maximize
their well-being, and do not respond solely to immediate
opportunity costs and pressures. In this view, while generally grounded in monetarism, future expectations and
strategies are important for ination as well.
A core assertion of rational expectations theory is that actors will seek to head o central-bank decisions by acting in ways that fulll predictions of higher ination. This
means that central banks must establish their credibility in
ghting ination, or economic actors will make bets that
the central bank will expand the money supply rapidly
enough to prevent recession, even at the expense of exacerbating ination. Thus, if a central bank has a reputation
as being soft on ination, when it announces a new policy of ghting ination with restrictive monetary growth
economic agents will not believe that the policy will persist; their inationary expectations will remain high, and
so will ination. On the other hand, if the central bank
has a reputation of being tough on ination, then such
a policy announcement will be believed and inationary
expectations will come down rapidly, thus allowing ination itself to come down rapidly with minimal economic
disruption.
5.4
6 Controlling ination
A variety of methods and policies have been proposed
and used to control ination.
Heterodox views
Monetary policy
Federal Funds Rate (effective)
July 1954 to December 2008
5.4.1
Austrian view
20
18
16
Percent
10
6 CONTROLLING INFLATION
a low ination rate because they believe deation endan- 6.3 Gold standard
gers the economy.
Higher interest rates reduce the amount of money be- Main article: Gold standard
cause fewer people seek loans, and loans are usually made The gold standard is a monetary system in which a rewith new money. When banks make loans, they usually
rst create new money, then lend it. A central bank usually creates money lent to a national government. Therefore, when a person pays back a loan, the bank destroys
the money and the quantity of money falls. In the early
1980s, when the federal funds rate exceeded 15 percent,
the quantity of Federal Reserve dollars fell 8.1 percent,
from $8.6 trillion down to $7.9 trillion.
Monetarists emphasize a steady growth rate of money
and use monetary policy to control ination by increasing
interest rates and slowing the rise in the money supply.
Keynesians emphasize reducing aggregate demand during economic expansions and increasing demand during
recessions to keep ination stable. Control of aggregate Two 20 kr gold coins from the Scandinavian Monetary Union, a
demand can be achieved using both monetary policy and historical example of an international gold standard.
scal policy (increased taxation or reduced government
spending to reduce demand).
gions common media of exchange are paper notes that
are normally freely convertible into pre-set, xed quantities of gold. The standard species how the gold backing
would be implemented, including the amount of specie
per currency unit. The currency itself has no innate value,
but is accepted by traders because it can be redeemed for
the equivalent specie. A U.S. silver certicate, for exam6.2 Fixed exchange rates
ple, could be redeemed for an actual piece of silver.
Main article: Fixed exchange rate
Under a xed exchange rate currency regime, a countrys
currency is tied in value to another single currency or to a
basket of other currencies (or sometimes to another measure of value, such as gold). A xed exchange rate is usually used to stabilize the value of a currency, vis-a-vis the
currency it is pegged to. It can also be used as a means
to control ination. However, as the value of the reference currency rises and falls, so does the currency pegged
to it. This essentially means that the ination rate in the
xed exchange rate country is determined by the ination
rate of the country the currency is pegged to. In addition,
a xed exchange rate prevents a government from using
domestic monetary policy in order to achieve macroeconomic stability.
Under the Bretton Woods agreement, most countries
around the world had currencies that were xed to the US
dollar. This limited ination in those countries, but also
exposed them to the danger of speculative attacks. After
the Bretton Woods agreement broke down in the early
1970s, countries gradually turned to oating exchange
rates. However, in the later part of the 20th century, some
countries reverted to a xed exchange rate as part of an
attempt to control ination. This policy of using a xed
exchange rate to control ination was used in many countries in South America in the later part of the 20th century
(e.g. Argentina (19912002), Bolivia, Brazil, and Chile).
The gold standard was partially abandoned via the international adoption of the Bretton Woods System. Under
this system all other major currencies were tied at xed
rates to the dollar, which itself was tied to gold at the rate
of $35 per ounce. The Bretton Woods system broke down
in 1971, causing most countries to switch to at money
money backed only by the laws of the country.
Under a gold standard, the long term rate of ination (or
deation) would be determined by the growth rate of the
supply of gold relative to total output.[61] Critics argue
that this will cause arbitrary uctuations in the ination
rate, and that monetary policy would essentially be determined by gold mining.[62][63]
11
In general, wage and price controls are regarded as a
temporary and exceptional measure, only eective when
coupled with policies designed to reduce the underlying causes of ination during the wage and price control regime, for example, winning the war being fought.
They often have perverse eects, due to the distorted signals they send to the market. Articially low prices often
cause rationing and shortages and discourage future investment, resulting in yet further shortages. The usual
economic analysis is that any product or service that is
under-priced is overconsumed. For example, if the ocial price of bread is too low, there will be too little bread
at ocial prices, and too little investment in bread making
by the market to satisfy future needs, thereby exacerbating the problem in the long term.
Temporary controls may complement a recession as a way
to ght ination: the controls make the recession more
ecient as a way to ght ination (reducing the need to
increase unemployment), while the recession prevents the
kinds of distortions that controls cause when demand is
high. However, in general the advice of economists is
not to impose price controls but to liberalize prices by assuming that the economy will adjust and abandon unprofitable economic activity. The lower activity will place
fewer demands on whatever commodities were driving ination, whether labor or resources, and ination will fall
with total economic output. This often produces a severe
recession, as productive capacity is reallocated and is thus
often very unpopular with the people whose livelihoods
are destroyed (see creative destruction).
7 See also
Ination hedge
List of countries by ination rate
Measuring economic worth over time
Real versus nominal value (economics)
Steady state economy
Welfare cost of ination
8 Notes
[1] See:
Wyplosz & Burda 1997 (Glossary);
6.5
6.6
Cost-of-living allowance
12
8 NOTES
13
[44] Steve H. Hanke (July 2013). North Korea: From Hyperination to Dollarization?". Retrieved August 21, 2014.
[63] DeLong, Brad. Why Not the Gold Standard?". Retrieved September 25, 2008.
9 References
Abel, Andrew; Bernanke, Ben (2005). Macroeconomics (5th ed.). Pearson.
Barro, Robert J. (1997). Macroeconomics. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press. p. 895. ISBN 0-26202436-5.
Blanchard, Olivier (2000). Macroeconomics (2nd
ed.). Englewood Clis, N.J: Prentice Hall. ISBN
0-13-013306-X.
Mankiw, N. Gregory (2002). Macroeconomics
(5th ed.). Worth.
Hall, Robert E.; Taylor, John B. (1993). Macroeconomics. New York: W.W. Norton. p. 637. ISBN
0-393-96307-1.
Burda, Michael C.; Wyplosz, Charles (1997).
Macroeconomics: a European text. Oxford [Oxfordshire]: Oxford University Press. ISBN 0-19877468-0.
10 Further reading
Auernheimer, Leonardo, The Honest Governments Guide to the Revenue From the Creation of
Money, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 82, No.
3, May/June 1974, pp. 598606.
Baumol, William J. and Alan S. Blinder, Macroeconomics: Principles and Policy, Tenth edition. Thomson South-Western, 2006. ISBN 0-324-22114-2
14
11
11
External links
EXTERNAL LINKS
15
12
12.1
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16
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12.2
Images
File:2013_Inflation_rates_map_of_the_world_per_International_Monetary_Fund.svg Source:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/
wikipedia/commons/d/d2/2013_Inflation_rates_map_of_the_world_per_International_Monetary_Fund.svg License: CC BY-SA 4.0
Contributors: Own work Original artist: M Tracy Hunter
File:Emblem-money.svg Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f3/Emblem-money.svg License: GPL Contributors:
http://www.gnome-look.org/content/show.php/GNOME-colors?content=82562 Original artist: perfectska04
File:Federal_Funds_Rate_(effective).svg Source:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7d/Federal_Funds_Rate_
%28effective%29.svg License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: self-made using data from the Federal Reserve[1] The gnuplot source code
used to generate the graph is found on its discussion page at Wikimedia Commons. Original artist: Kbh3rd
File:M2andInflation.png Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/80/M2andInflation.png License: CC BY-SA 3.0
Contributors: Own work Original artist: Bkwillwm
File:Two_20kr_gold_coins.jpg Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/92/Two_20kr_gold_coins.jpg License: CC0
Contributors: Own work Original artist: Anonimski
File:US_Historical_Inflation_Ancient.svg Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/20/US_Historical_Inflation_
Ancient.svg License: Public domain Contributors: Wikipedia EN Original artist: Lalala666
File:US_Inflation.png Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/83/US_Inflation.png License: CC0 Contributors:
Own work Original artist: Lawrencekhoo
12.3
Content license