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Members:-
1. Abdullah (Group leader)
2. Farman ullah Wazir
3. Zakir ullah
4. Rashid ul haq Khattak
5. Sibtain Shakeel
WAPDA Crises or Electricity Shortage in Pakistan becomes more severe during the
year 2005-2006 due to extensive use luxurious appliances of electricity by domestic
users. According to the report, in the fiscal year 2005-06, some 2,250MW powe r was
require d to operate some 7.7 million electric home appliances i.e. numbe r of
refrigerators in the country were 1,100,000 and power required for the m was
estimated at 110MW, the number of deep freezers were estimated at 200,000 and
require d power for them stood at 60MW, some 1,000MW powe r was required to
run 2 million air conditioners, Simply since 2005 to 2009 Established are high
demand ,illegal load and theft of electricity are increase in Pakistan. These figures
are so alarming for Pakistan because in the decade starting from 1991 these
appliances are less than a half million. The study was made on the topic WAPDA
crises or shortage of electricity in Pakistan is comparison with low demand, illegal
load electricity thefts, unskilled manageme nt, over age employees, unpatriotic
peoples, air conditione rs usage, imported and produced during 2005 to Now. In this
study the hypothesis were set as, is WAPDA Crises or Electricity shortage in
Pakistan is caused by Industrial growth or massive use of illegal load, over load, Air
conditioners by domestic users. However after finding out and analyzing the data
that the increased domestic use of illegal load, over load, air conditioners is the
cause of WAPDA Crises or electricity s hortage in Pakistan.
Acknowledgement
Since October 2007, WAPDA has been bifurcated into two distinct entities i.e.
WAPDA and Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO). WAPDA is
responsible for water and hydropower development whereas PEPCO is ve sted
with the responsibility of thermal power generation, transmission, distribution and
billing. There is an independent Chairman and MD (PEPCO) replacing Chairman
WAPDA and Member (Power) who was previously holding the additional
charges of these posts.
WAPDA is now fully responsible for the development of Hyde Power and Water
Sector Projects.
PEPCO has been fully empowered and is responsible for the management of all
the affairs of corporatized nine Distribution Companies (DISCOs), four
Generation Companies (GENCOs) and a National Transmission Dispatch
Company (NTDC). These companies are working under independent Board of
Directors (Chairman and some Directors are from Private Sectors).
The Companies are administratively autonomous and leading to financial
autonomy by restructuring their balance sheets by bringing their equity position to
at least 20 percent, required to meet the prudential regulations and to facilitate
financing from commercial sector (approved by ECC).
The Loan Liability Transfer Agreements (LLTA) have been signed with
Corporate Entities and execution of loan transfer is complete.
All Entities have the physical possessions of all their operational assets.
On 24th Feb. 2007 Ministry of Water & Power notified NEPRA approved Tariff
for all Distribution Companies replacing unified WAPDA Tariff.
Legal Agreements such as Business Transfer Agreements, Operation
Development Agreement, Energy Supply Agreement, Business Supplementary
Agreement and Fuel Supply Agreement etc. were executed between WAPDA and
Corporate Entities to facilitate commercial operations.
Regulatory instruments like Grid Code, Distribution Codes, Performance
Standard for Distribution Companies and Transmission Companies were drafted
and got approved from in 2007.
All major lenders gave their consent for transfer of their loan from WAPDA to
Corporate Entities, thus 326 loan assumption agreement were signed amongst
respective Companies, WAPDA and EAD (Economic Affairs Division) GOP.
The Charter of Duties of WAPDA is to investigate, plan and execute schemes for
the following fields:
The Authority comprises of a Chairman and three (3) Members working through a
Secretary.
WAPDA is one of the largest employers of human resources in Pakistan. Over the years
WAPDA has built- up a reservoir of Technical know-how and expertise which has made
it a modern and progressive organization.
In 1959, WAPDA was created to undertake the task of investigating, planning and
executing schemes for irrigation, drainage, prevention of water logging and reclamation
of saline land as an autonomous body responsible for integrated development of water
and power resources in Pakistan. The organization was also entrusted with the work of
implementing Indus Basin Settlement Plan signed between India and Pakistan in 1960 to
develop replacement works for management of river water and irrigation system. Since
then it has been engaged in building water development projects which include extensive
research and investigation to augment country's water resources.
Member (Water) controls the water Sector in the entire country divided into north,
central, south zones, generally covering the North Western Frontier Provinces (NWFP)
and the provinces of Punjab and Sindh respectively, for execution of SCARPs and
surface water development, projects. Chief Engineers and Project Directors implement
projects falling under regions within the zone. In addition, the Water Wing has a C.E
(Coordination and Monitoring) for construction and operation of dams and all other
projects under Water wing services (TS) and two separate General Managers for Ghazi
Barotha Hydropower and National Drainage Project. The Planning Division of Water
Wing, headed by a General Manager, looks after all planning activities on the water side.
The activities of water resources and hydropower development and vision-2025 are
handled by three General Managers i.e. Technical, South, North, GM (P&D) and GM
Hydro Development.
In recent years, the combination of rising oil consumption and flat oil production in
Pakistan has led to rising oil imports from Middle East exporters. In addition, the lack of
refining capacity leaves Pakistan heavily dependent on petroleum product imports.
Natural gas accounts for the largest share of Pakistan‟s energy use, amounting to about
50 percent of total energy consumption. Pakistan currently consumes all of its domestic
natural gas production, but without higher production Pakistan will need to become a
natural gas importer. As a result, Pakistan is exploring several pipeline and LNG import
options to meet the expected growth in natural gas demand. Pakistan‟s electricity demand
is rising rapidly. According to Pakistani government estimates, generating capacity needs
to grow by 50 percent by 2010 in order to meet expected demand.
Pakistan is facing a huge electric power crisis today. This crisis appears insurmountable
in the near or even long-term future, unless proper understanding and correct
implementation is undertaken on priority basis. At present total power production
capacity in the country is about 19,500 MW, out of which Hydel Power is only 6,500
The problem of massive load shedding in Pakistan was properly introduced in 2004-
2005.Because in these days the overall GDP growth was very high near about 9% per
year. In these years the business progress was very well and banks industry grows at a
vigorous speed. Banks introduces new schemes in which peoples were provided home
appliances on lease. Thus resulting an increase in production and exports of home
appliances. These home appliances not only include the necessity objects like refrigerator
but also the Luxury objects like Air conditioners. Although most of the air conditioners
were made in Pakistan but 60% of the raw material used in air conditioners was imported
from different countries of the world.
Due to these reasons Pakistan was hit badly by two basic problems such as budget deficit
and shortage of electricity.
Now a days illegal load, over load and the consumption of Air conditioners in Pakistan is
slow comparing to 2005-2006.But the Load shedding Problem becomes more severe.
1 . 3. Objectives of my research:
The main objective of my research is to find out either the consumption of high demand,
over load, illegal load, thefting of electricity in Pakistan is responsible for Load shedding
or the growth in industrial sector in Pakistan is responsible for load shedding, or no
installation of new power plants or latest equipments is responsible for the problem.
From different resources it is also confirmed that during 2002-2006 Pakistan‟s industry
sector was also at boom so without testing the hypothesis we cannot say that the Load
shedding problem is due to usage of high demand, over load, illegal load and thefting of
electricity. Here we also have to note down that the ratio of growth in consumption of
electriicty to production of electriicty.
To find out the past trends of electriicty consumption and present and future situations is
also an objective of my research.
3. Problem Statement:
“Do the High Demand, illegal load, over load, electricity
thefting and production of Air conditioners in Pakistan is
responsible for severe load shedding in Pakistan or other
factors like growth in industry and no installation of electricity
capacities or latest equipments were responsible for that.”
4. Theoretical Framework:
After analyzing the Pakistan‟s energy shortages and their different reasons for these
shortages the following variables were identified.
Electricity
Independent variables
High Demand
Over load and illegal load
New electricity capacities installed
Industrial growth
Air conditioners
Massive domestic usage of air conditioners, over loads and thefting electricity
due to high income level negatively affects electriicty supply.
No installation of new electriicty capacities or latest equipment negatively
influences the electriicty supply.
The industrial growth during 2005-2006 positively influences the electriicty
supply.
5. Hypothesis:
1. Null Hypothesis:
H0 : Massive usage of air conditioners, over loads, illegal loading and high demand in
the country is responsible for the electriicty shortage in the country.
1. Alternative Hypothesis:
H1 : Massive usage of air conditioners, over loads, illegal loading and high demand in
the country is not responsible for electriicty shortage in the country.
2. Null Hypothesis:
H0 : Growth in industrial sector is responsible for shortage of electriicty in Pakistan.
2. Alternative Hypothesis:
H1 : Growth in industrial sector is not responsible for the shortage of electriicty in
Pakistan.
3. Null Hypothesis:
H0 : No installation of ne w electricity capacities or latest equipments is responsible
for electriicty shortage in Pakistan.
6. Research Design:
To collect data these companies are contacted through PEPCO for better
cooperation.Thus the data collected from these sources is divded into two froms one is
domestic consumption of electricity and the other one is commercial consumption of
electriicty during 2005-2006. The staff of PEPCO also forwards me a report made by
Engineer Tahir basharat cheema the chairman of PEPCO. which was presented to the
Prime minister.
The Primary and secondary data collected from different sources thus managed. Primary
data was collected in the form of filled questionnaire and the secondary data was
collected in the form of reports of different journalists and other government o fficials.
The data collected in the form of filled questionnaire is of primary nature thus it is
directly analyzed by using different statistical tools such as coefficient of variation and
other measures of location and measures of dispersion. Then the data was arranged and
presented in a graphical form so that any one can analyze the situation of electriicty
shortage in Pakistan.
As it is clearly evident from the figure that consumption of electricity was increasing day
by day.
Now looking at the data which was collected from different electriicty supply companies
of Pakistan.
WATT: Watt is a unit of power. A watt is defined as the rate of doing one joule (J)
of work in one second. Common units of power are multiple of the watt.
These are as under:
KILOWATT HOUR: Kilowatt hour is a precise measure of energy and work. It is the
work equivalent to 1000 watts (Joules per second) over one hour
time.
Domestic Supply
Commercial Supply
Industrial Supply
It means power supply for bona fide industrial purposes in factories including the supply
required for the offices and for normal working of the industry and also for water pumps
and tube wells other than those meant for irrigation or reclamation of agriculture land.
“Agricultural Supply” means a supply for lift Irrigation Pumps and/or Tube wells
intended solely for irrigation or reclamation of agricultural land or forests, and includes
supply for lighting of tube well chamber.
Maximum Demand
“Maximum Demand” means the highest demand obtained in any month measured over
successive periods each of 30 minutes duration.
Public Lighting
Bulk Supply
“Bulk Supply” for the purpose of this tariff means a supply given in a bulk at one
point to consumers having their own distribution facilities, i.e. own grid station etc.
Beside that Electricity consumed in auxiliaries and system losses are referred as other
Consumption.
Do mestic 10,005 81.7 10,783 81.7 13,086 82.6 13,888 83.1 14,838 83.4
Co mmercial 1,840 15.0 2,001 15.2 2,313 14.6 2,379 14.2 2,476 13.9
Industrial 220 1.8 224 1.7 230 1.5 234 1.4 245 1.4
Agriculture 174 1.4 175 1.3 201 1.3 204 1.2 223 1.2
Industrial
Agriculture Others
1%
1% 0%
Domestic
Commercial Commercial
14% Industrial
Agriculture
Others
Domestic
84%
Do mestic 19,268 42.1 21,485 46.4 25,394 42.8 27,601 43.6 30,720 43.7
Co mmercial 2,381 5.2 2,544 5.5 3,586 6.0 4,080 6.4 4,730 6.7
Industrial 12,924 28.3 13,972 30.1 19,738 33.3 20,561 32.5 22,441 32.0
Agriculture 5,620 12.3 4,542 9.8 6,669 11.2 6,988 11.1 7,949 11.3
Public 225 0.5 239 0.5 271 0.5 306 0.5 353 0.5
Lighting
Bulk Supply 5,338 11.6 3,576 7.7 3,658 6.2 3,762 5.9 4,048 5.8
& others
MKH
2004-05
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
2004-05
0
Domestic
Commercial
Industrial
2004-05
Agriculture
Public
Bulk Supply
2005-06
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 2005-06
Total
2005-06
Domestic
Commercial
Industrial
Agriculture
Public Lit.
FIG.7.5
1999-00
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1999-00
0
Total
Domestic
Commercial
1999-00
Industrial
Agriculture
Public
The above tables and graphs show some facts of Pakistan‟s power energy data. Now we
will look at the electricity generation graph of Pakistan.
System Losses
Year Units Generated
Units Losses %
MKW
1 2 3 4
1996-97 59,894 14,172 24.6
1997-98 62,915 15,453 25.5
1998-99 65,402 17,179 27.3
1999-00 66,562 17,664 27.6
2003-04 83,607 21,117 25.3
2004-05 88,379 21,603 25.4
2005-06 96,478 22,521 24.3
FIG.7.6
2005-06
System
Losses
19%
Units Generated
System Losses
Units
Generated
81%
We can clearly see the difference between consumption of electricity during 2004-2005
and 2005-2006 and 1999-2000. FIG.7.1 to 7.6 illustrates the story. That how electricity
consumption increases from 46,358 MKW to almost 60,000 MKW. Here is a point to
note that during year 2005-2006 system losses or line losses are about 20% which is
alarming. i.e. 20% of energy made by Pakistan is lost in lines during delivery of
electricity to destinations. In developed countries the line losses percentage is only 3%.
Analysis:
It was found that half a million ACs mainly of the split version was sold and added to the
power system during fiscal 2005-06. Thereafter, another 750,000 pieces of such
equipment was installed in Pakistan during the next financial year. 2005-06.
Importers and manufacturers of air conditioners had planned to sell upwards of a million
ACs during 2006-06, but due to the on-going power crises they could only purvey
750,000 such appliances. A market survey revealed that people wanting to add three ACs
during 2008 would now buy two and spend the rest of the mone y on procurement of a
generator. The sale figures for the three years viz. 2005-08 add to a phenomenal two
million pieces or an addition of 4000 MW of load or at least a usage effect equaling 800
MW at 20 per cent diversely factor. It was estimated that four million ACs of both the
window and the split versions (in addition to package and centrally air conditioned
buildings) were added between 2000-08 or a load of 1600 MW (with due diversity) to the
system. One can safely assume that a large number of such contraptions would be hooked
8. Findings
From above analysis it is found that shortage of electricity in Pakistan is caused by high
demand, illegal loads, electricity thefting, shortage of dams, over loads and frequent use
of Air Conditioners in by domestic consumers only. As it is evident from graphs that
domestic consumption of electricity is raised about 30% during 2005-2006.
The other variables of our research such as industrial growth and consumption of
electricity in industry has almost no impact on shortage. Because industrial growth is
only 7% during 2005-2006 raised from 3.5% from previous year. But Domestic
consumption is increased from 5% per year to 30% which is alarming.
So we accept the first null hypothesis that Massive usage of air conditioners, over
loads, illegal loading and high de mand in the country is responsible for the
electriicty shortage in the country, And we re ject all other hypothesis.
Line loses in shape of theft of electricity should also be decreased by making new
and harder laws.
Home users use less energy so that industrial can benefit from it.
10. References:
World Energy Data: www.eia.doe.gov
Daily Times
Daily News
www.worldbank.org
www.google.com.pk
www.scribdupload.com
—The End—
Abdullah Izam Page 29 of 29 Muslim College