Chapter 1: Outline

Need for Psychological Science

Hindsight bias and judgmental overconfidence show that we cannot rely on
intuition and common sense. Critical thinking must also be employed in order to
perceive facts from nonsense.
Hind sight Bias
The thought that once a person find out the outcome, that the person knew the
outcome all along and could have predicted it.
Proves that we need psychological research
Common sense describes what has happened more easily than predict what will
happen
Overconfidence
Thinking is limited
Even when you are 100% sure about something, self prediction may change up to
15% of the time.
When prediction becomes wrong, individuals attempt the I was close excuse
Often leads to the overestimation of our potential.
Skepticism and humility must be added to come back to reality
Scientific Attitude
Sometimes refutes skeptics
Being skeptical but not cynical, open but not gullible
Skeptical testing could separate the real facts
Requires skepticism and humility
Need to reject our own ideas
Copernicus and Newton, are examples of people who used the scientific attitude
Critical Thinking examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates
evidence and assesss conclusion without blindly accepting arguments and
conclusions.

Scientific Method
Scientific Theory explains through principles that organizes and predicts
behaviors or events.
By organizing isolated facts, theory simplifies things.
Connection of observed dots, we may discover a pattern
Hypothesis is testable prediction, often started by a theory
Research allows one to test or reject the theory
Operational Definition is a statement of the procedures used to define research
variables.

Replication when a procedure could be repeated with different participants in

different situations to see whether the same result is found.
A theory is successful if it links and organizes observed facts and if it implies
hypothesis that offer testable predictions and practical applications.

Case Study
An observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in hope of
revealing universal principles
Case studies can suggest hypotheses for further study.
Unrepresentative information can lead to mistaken judgments and false
conclusions.
Anecdotal stories may elevate the truth
Does not work to find the general truths that cover individual cases
Survey
Looks at many cases in less depth
Asks individuals about their behaviors and opinions
Answers depend on wording
May use random sampling
Random Sampling
False consensus effect is the tendency to overestimate the extent to which others
share our beliefs and behaviors
Populations includes all the cases in a group from which samples may be drawn
from a study
Random sampling represents a populations because each member has an equal
chance of inclusion
Very large samples may be more reliable
Basis of generalizing is from representative sample of cases
Naturalistic Observation
Observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying
to manipulate and control the situation
Does not explain behavior, it describes it
Robert Levine and Ara Norenzayan compared pace of life
Can be used with correlation research
Correlation
When two traits seem to accompany each other, they correlate
Correlation coefficient is a statistical measure of a relationship
Reveals how closely two things vary together and thus how well wither one
predicts the other
Scatter plots show how closely related the traits are associated with

Each point plots the value of the two variables

Positive correlation means that two variables seem to rise or fall together
A negative correlation could mean inverse as well as negative relationships
Inverse means that while one variable is increasing, the other is decreasing
A weak correlation means that there is little or no relationship- the coefficient is
then zero
Correlation indicates the possibility of a cause-effect relationship but does not
prove the cause.

Illusory Correlations
A perceived non existent relationship
Explains superstitions, beliefs.
More likely to notice and remember the occurrence of two events in sequence
Can be easily deceived by estimating that there is a correlation amidst random
events.
Perceiving order in random events
Random sequences often dont look random
Example- Flipping coins 50% of getting each side
Streaks may be found in any random data
Patterns or sequences occur naturally in random data
Exploring Cause and Effect
Experiment is a research method in which an investigator manipulates one or
more factors to observe the effect on some behavior or mental process. By
random assignment of participants, the experimenter aims to control other
relevant factors.
Independent Variable is being manipulated
Dependent Variable is the effect being observed.
Evaluating Therapies
Double blind procedures- when an experiment is being performed without the
knowledge of either the participant nor the administer
Placebo Effect is researching the effect of expectations, could be used to see
whether a medicine is needed or not
Experimental Condition is the condition of an experiment that exposes
participants to the treatment.
Control condition is the condition of an experiment that contrasts with the
experimental condition and serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of the
treatment
Random assignment is assigning participants to by chance, minimizes existing
differences.
Independent and Dependent Variables

The Independent Variable is the value being manipulated within a given

experiment
The dependent variable is the effect produced by manipulating the
independent variable.
A variable is anything that can vary
Random assignment is preferred so that all other variables could be equal and
not favor one thing.

Statistical Reasoning
By throwing out a big round number, one could easily mistake reality. Like when
we compare percentages and what they actually mean. An example given in the
textbook is- 10% of people are lesbians or gay men. Or is it 2 to 3% as suggested
by various surveys?
Describing Data
One important thing while reading graphs is not to forget to read scale and figure
out the range. The same graph could look different if given different scales or a
different range.
Measures of Central Tendency
A single score that represents a whole set of scores is also known as the measure
of central tendency.
Mode is the most frequent number repeated within a given set of numbers
Median is the midpoint
Mean is the average of the numbers. You can find this out by adding up all the
given numbers and then dividing it by the number of numbers you have. The
mean could be exaggerated or diluted based on a few extreme scores. Like for
example, the mean of 3, 4, 6 and 201 is 53.5, even though there are not many
numbers above 53.5. since the information is skewed.
Measures of Variation
Variation describes how similar or different scores could be. When a person has
low variability, we may predict his next move, since there is not much of a chance
that he will change his next move.
The range is determined based on how far the lowest and highest scores are.
The standard of deviation is a measure of how much numbers may deviate from
one another. It shows how much individual numbers vary from the mean. It is
more informative than just the mean.
When is an observed difference reliable?
Three principles that shall make an observed difference more reliable includes
1. Representative samples are better than biased samples
2. Less-variable observations are more reliable that those that are more
variable. (consistent scores are more reliable than those with more
variation.)

3. When a study includes more cases, it is more reliable than having a study
with fewer cases.
When is a difference significant?
When there is a big difference among an average, that difference is known as the
statistical significance. It also means that this difference was not due to chance
variations and that the mean is reliable.
Statistical difference also shows the likelihood that the result will happen by
chance.
Can Libratory Experiments illuminate Everyday Life?
The main idea is that the resulting principles-not the specific findings will help
everyday behaviors.
Douglas Mook claims that the experiments purpose is not re-create the exact
behaviors of everyday life but to test theoretical principles.
Does Behavior Depend on Ones Culture
Culture is the shared ides and behaviors that one generation passes on to the next.
It does matter since it influences our perspective on certain topics.
Heritance does play a role though, since dyslexia can be seen more in certain
races than others, the variation of languages are influenced by our cultures and
society and so does the way we live our lives, the choices that we make.
Does Behavior vary by gender?
Gender does play a role in behavior.
Women are more likely to build relationships and carry on a conversation and
men are more likely to relate through advice. This information shows us a way to
communicate differently with each gender. It is a known fact that men are less
likely to talk about personal feeling as much as woman, such differences, require
different approaches.
Why do Psychologists study animals?
Human physiology resembles that of many other animals.
Animal experiments could lead to cures/vaccines for humans
Is it ethical to experiment on animals?
Researchers defend themselves by stating that the number of animals they use for
research is only 1% of the number of animals killed for food.
Psychologists for the Ethical Treatment of animals want researchers to use
naturalistic observation while testing rather than libratory manipulation.
Ethics vary from culture to culture
Some say that the benefits out way the costs
Scott Plous noted that each individual has a list of animals they are more
concerned about.

APA advocates minimal pain and stress placed upon animals.

Experimenting on people
The APA states that in order to experiment on people, the following guidelines
must be followed:
1. Obtain the informed consent of potential participants
2. protect them from harm and discomfort
3. treat information about individual participants confidentially
4. fully explain the research after the experiment
Value of Judgments
Bias definitely plays a role in how an individual may interpret results and study it.
Plays a role in which goals we would like to reach
Psychology- Dangerous?
power to deceive as well as enlighten
Addresses common problems, meant to enlighten.