PROBABILITY METHODS AND USES

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2. If the favorable result of an event is for A or B or both to occur, then the

probability of this favorable result is P(A u B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B).
3. If, in rule 2, A and B are "mutually exclusive" events (i.e., if one occurs,
the other cannot), then P(A n B) = 0 and P(A u B) = P(A) + P(B).
4. The number of combinations of n things taken r at a time is given by the
formula
c =-- n!
(8A.1)
n r
r! ( n - r ) !

5. In general, the probability of exactly r occurrences in n trials of an event

that has a constant probability of occurrence p is
P,(r) = ,Crprq"-' =

n!
prqn-*
r! (n - r)!

(8A.2)

where q = 1 - p.
Rule 5 is a generalized form of the binomial expansion, applying to all terms
of the binomial (p + q)". This distribution has had widespread use in generatingsystem probability studies. For example, assume that a generation system is
composed of four identical units and that each of these units has a probability
p of being in service at any randomly chosen time. The probability of being
out of service is q = 1 - p. Assume that each machine's behavior is independent
of the others. Then, a table may be constructed showing the probability of
having 4, 3, 2, 1, and none in service.
Number in Service

Probability of Occurrence
4!
p4 = p4
4! (4 - 4)!
4!
P(3) = *c3p3q4-3 =
P39 = 4P39
3! (4 - 3)!
4!
P(2) = 4c2p2q4-2 =
p2q2 = 6p2q2
2! (4 - 2)!
4!
P(1) = 4c,p'q4-' =
Pq3 = 4pq3
1!(4 - l)!
4!
P(0) = 4c,poq4-o = -____ 94 = 94

P(4) = 4c4p4q4-4 =

O ! (4 - O ) !

In this table, each of the probabilities is a term of the binomial expansion

of the form:
4CnP"q4- n
where n is the number of units in service,
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