How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

This is a brief guide about Advanced Cross Market Trading Strategies

INTRODUCTION

Traditional sports arbitrage Cross-Market Trading Strategies

techniques rely upon covering all use mathematical models to
outcomes of an event with bets generate risk-free trades between
within the same market. different sports-betting markets.

These trades are relatively simple This allows for a significantly

in terms of discovery and greater range of more complex
calculation and are covered in trades which are all but invisible to
virtually every basic article or book the vast majority of traders.
on sports arbitrage.
The bets within these trades
have different properties to the
Their relative simplicity makes norm and this means that
these types of trades easily arbitrage conditions no longer
visible; any situation where all rely upon the simple rule that
outcomes are covered and the the sum of the prices should
prices convert to a summed convert to a percentage less
percentage less than 100% will than 100%.
yield an arbitrage.

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

SIMPLE EXAMPLES

Perhaps the easiest way to understand this is to consider the simple

cross-market trading opportunities available in Tennis. Here, two inter-
related markets on a particular match will be the Match Winner and Set
Betting markets.

An arbitrage trade between these two markets would cover the outcome
of one player winning by placing a bet in the Match Winner market, whilst
covering the outcome of the other player winning by placing two or more
bets in the Set Betting market. The latter bets effectively synthesise the
Match Bet on Player 2.

Another simple application of this method is to find instances where the

winner of a specific match or game will, de facto, be the winner of the
tournament or series. For example, on the last day of Wimbledon in any
year, a Match Bet on either player in the final can be offset by a
Tournament Winner bet on the opponent.

Taking this one step further, after the quarter-finals of the tournament,
you can construct a two-stage trade whose initial components are a
combination of bets from the two semi-final match-bet markets and the
overall tournament winner market.

On a much more advanced level, the Match Bet, Asian and European
handicap markets in soccer provide hundreds of ways to synthesise bets.

The same is true for the Total Goals markets and their Asian Handicaps.

It’s with these techniques that your trading will rise to a new level: the
traditional rules, which limit the average trader, are lifted to set you free.
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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

COMPLEX EXAMPLE

The most common cross market arbitrage trades occur in soccer, where
bookmakers & betting exchanges offer a very wide range of Asian
handicap, European Handicap and Double-Chance bets as well as
standard match bets.

Many cross-market sports arbitrage trades use bets whose properties

include refunds under certain conditions, whilst other bets in the trade
payout as winners. This obviously results in significantly higher profits
than standard sports arbitrage trades.

Here's an example using a soccer match from the Italy Serie A:

The trade combines a (+2) Asian Handicap bet on Sampdoria with (-1.5)
and (-2.5) Asian Handicap bets on Livorno

Bookie 1 Sampdoria (+2) 1.30

Bookie 2 Livorno (-1.5) 4.20

Bookie 3 Livorno (-2.5) 8.00

The first thing to notice is that to any conventional sports arbitrage

trader, these prices would not indicate that an arb exists. Convert the
prices into percentages and they sum to over 113%

However, this is an arb. Here's why...

Sampdoria (+2) pays out fully if Sampdoria wins, draws or loses by 1

goal. It's refunded completely if they lose by exactly 2 goals

Livorno (-1.5) pays out fully if Livorno wins by more than 1 goal

Livorno (-2.5) pays out fully if Livorno wins by more than 2 goals
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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

THE PAYOUTS

There are a number of ways in which a trader can apportion his stakes on
this trade: for an equal profit irrespective of the match’s outcome or with
a bias towards any two or any single outcome. The first method is
conservative, the others remain risk-free but can result in significantly
lower or higher profits which will depend on the quality of the trader’s
judgement.

1. Equal profit irrespective of outcome

Sampdoria (+2): €84 | Livorno (-1.5): €6 | Livorno (-2.5): €10.50

MATCH SAMPDORIA LIVORNO LIVORNO TOTAL

OUTCOME (+2) (-1.5) (-2.5) PAYOUT

SAMPDORIA €109.20 0 0 €109.20

WINS

DRAW €109.20 0 0 €109.20

LIVORNO €109.2 0 0 €109.20

WINS BY
1 GOAL

LIVORNO €84.00 €25.20 0 €109.20

WINS BY
2 GOALS

LIVORNO 0 €25.20 €84.00 €109.20

WINS BY
MORE THAN
2 GOALS

Your total investment in the trade is 100.50 and you will

receive a payout of 109.20 irrespective of the result.

That's a risk-free profit of about 8%

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

THE PAYOUTS

2. Bias in favour of Livorno (-1.5)

The stakes would be apportioned as follow

Sampdoria (+2): €77 | Livorno (-1.5): €22 | Livorno (-2.5): €1

MATCH SAMPDORIA LIVORNO LIVORNO TOTAL

OUTCOME (+2) (-1.5) (-2.5) PAYOUT

SAMPDORIA $100.10 0 0 $100.10

WINS

DRAW $100.10 0 0 $100.10

LIVORNO 0 0
WINS BY $100.10 $100.10
1 GOAL

LIVORNO 0
WINS BY $77.00 $92.40 $169.40
2 GOALS

LIVORNO 0 $92.40 $8
WINS BY $100.10
MORE THAN
2 GOALS

Your total investment in the trade is 100. All possible outcomes are
covered without any risk and you will receive a payout of 169.40
if the result is Livorno wins by 2 goals.

That's a risk-free profit of almost 70%

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

THE PAYOUTS

There are a total of 7 ways to bias your stakes in this and all 3-way cross
market sports arbitrage trades:

1. No Bias

2. Bias towards Bet 1

3. Bias towards Bet 2

4. Bias towards Bet 3

5. Bias towards Bet 1 & Bet 2

6. Bias towards Bet 1 & Bet 3

7. Bias towards Bet 2 & Bet 3

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

HOW DO I GET STARTED?

This guide has given you a glimpse of what is possible with cross market
sports arbitrage. There are over 350 different ways to combine Asian
handicap, European Handicap, Double-Chance and Match bets as well as
Under/Over bets and specific formulae are required to recognise them
and calculate the appropriate stakes.

The automated service within the TraderZone is capable of finding all of

these types of trades and its calculator makes it simple to understand and
execute them.

However, if you would prefer to deepen your understanding of these

trades before committing yourself in any trades, click here

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

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