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2014-2016
Update
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DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in the Qatar Economic Outlook 20142016 Update reflect the professional assessment
of staff members of the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDP&S). They do not necessarily represent the
official views of MDP&S or of the State of Qatar. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of all data and
information, MDP&S accepts no responsibility for errors in sources or in their reporting. The data cut-off for this report was
15November2014.
Foreword
Minister
Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics
December 2014
iii
Acknowledgements
iv
Contents
Forewordiii
Acknowledgementsiv
QatarUpdate at a glance 1
Economic growthrobust, driven by the non-hydrocarbon sector 1
Inflationmoderate, but marginally rising 1
Fiscal balancecomfortable, but narrowing 1
External balancein surplus, yet gradually declining 2
Risks to the outlookpressure from lower oil prices balanced by fiscal buffers 2
Boxes
Box 1.1 Forecast methodology and assumptions 4
Box1.2 WEO sees increased downside risks 13
Box1.3 Oil break-even prices across the region 14
Box2.1 Demand components of nominal GDP 16
Box 2.2 The elements of economic diversification 18
Box2.3
Other revenue22
Box2.4 Public investment management 23
Tables
QatarUpdate at a glance 1
Table 1.1 Qatar, latest forecasts of key indicators 3
Table1.2 Poll of economic forecasts for Qatar, as of 15 November 2014 (%) 8
vi
Figures
Figure1.1 The outlook for Qatar 3
Figure1.2 Contributions to GDP growth (percentage points) 4
Figure1.3 Sectoral shares in GDP (%) 5
Figure1.4 Sectoral growth in the economy, constant 2004 prices (%) 5
Figure1.5 Break-even oil price 6
Figure1.6 Consensus estimates of real GDP growth (%) 7
Figure1.7 Consensus estimates of nominal GDP growth(%) 8
Figure1.8 Consensus estimates of inflation (%) 8
Figure1.9 Average daily crude oil spot price ($ per barrel) 9
Figure1.10 Annual average crude oil price ($ per barrel) 9
Figure1.11 International crude oil and liquid fuel, global demand and supply 10
Figure1.12 Natural gas price index (2005 = 100) 10
Figure1.13 Spot price ratios: Crude oil to gas 10
Figure1.14 Natural gas prices ($ per mmbtu) 10
Figure1.15 Average monthly crude oil prices: Spot vs futures 11
Figure1.16 Non-fuel commodity price index (2005 = 100) 13
Figure1.17 Global real GDP growth projections (%) 13
Figure1.18 Regional real GDP growth projections (%) 14
Figure1.19 Regional inflation projections (%) 14
Figure2.1 GDP growth, nominal and real (%) 15
Figure2.2 Real GDP growth: Hydrocarbons and non-hydrocarbons (%) 15
Figure2.3 Contributions to real GDP growth (percentagepoints) 16
Figure2.4 Services growth (%) 16
Figure2.5 Total population (million) 17
Figure2.6 Construction growth (%) 17
Figure2.7 Manufacturing growth (%) 17
Figure2.8 Hydrocarbons and non-hydrocarbons, share of nominal GDP (%) 17
Figure2.9 Monthly headline and core inflation growth (year on year, %) 17
Figure2.10 Monthly inflation (yearonyear, %) 19
Figure2.11 Producer price index growth (year on year, %) 19
Figure2.12 QE Index and S&P Global 100 (year-on-year change, %) 19
vii
Figure2.13 GCC stock price indices and S&P Global (year-on-year change, %) 19
Figure2.14 QCB real estate price index 20
Figure2.15 Money supply (M2 ) 20
Figure2.16 Contribution to money supply growth (percentage points) 20
Figure2.17 Contribution to domestic credit growth (percentage points) 21
Figure2.18 Growth of commercial banks private sector credit (year-on-year change, %) 21
Figure2.19 Private business credit by main sectors (QRbillion) 21
Figure2.20 Balance of deposits and credits for the public sector, private sector and individuals 22
Figure2.21 Total government revenue (QRbillion) 22
Figure2.22 Expenditure growth (%) 23
Figure2.23 Fiscal balances, expenditure and revenue (% of GDP, current prices) 23
Figure2.24 Fiscal revenue, first-half actual and budget, FY2014/15 (QRbillion) 23
Figure2.25 Fiscal revenue, first-half actual (QRbillion) 24
Figure2.26 Fiscal expenditure, first-half actual and budget FY2014/15 (QRbillion) 24
Figure2.27 Fiscal expenditure, first-half actual (QRbillion) 24
Figure2.28 Fiscal balance, first-half actual (QRbillion) 25
Figure2.29 Current account components (% of nominal GDP) 25
Figure2.30 Foreign reserves (QRbillion) 25
viii
QatarUpdate at a glance
QatarUpdate at a glance
2014
2015
2016
6.3
7.7
7.5
6.5
6.7
8.0
3.0
3.5
3.7
12.9
8.7
4.7
24.8
19.5
16.0
oil and gas revenues in the first half of the fiscal year
(AprilSeptember) were down on first-half outcomes of
previous years.
QEO Update
30
30
25.1 24.8
25
2014
2015
2016
6.3
7.7
7.5
15
6.5
6.7
8.0
10
3.0
3.5
3.7
5
0
12.9
8.7
4.7
24.8
19.5
16.0
19.519.5
20
6.3 6.3
7.8 7.7
8.7
5.5
2014 2015
Real GDP
growth (%)
20
15
12.9
9.3
25
2014 2015
2014 2015
2014 2015
2014 2015
Nominal GDP Consumer price Fiscal surplus Current account
growth (%)
inflation (%) (% of nominal surplus (% of
GDP)
nominal GDP)
10
5
0
Economic prospects
Real economic activity
Economic growth, estimated using 2004 prices, is
forecast to remain robust in 2014 at 6.3%, rising to 7.7%
in 2015 and to 7.5% in 2016. Solid expansion in nonhydrocarbon activities (defined as all economic activity
other than upstream oil and gas production and other
mining activities) is expected to continue to drive overall
growth momentum over the projection period. In 2015
2016, continued robust expansion in non-hydrocarbon
activities will be bolstered by production from Barzan,
as it gradually comes on stream, facilitating expansion in
related downstream industries.
Output from the hydrocarbon sector (including other
mining activities) is set to contract in 2014 by 1.8%. Most
of that decline comes from declining production at
maturing oil fields. Gas output is expected to be broadly
stable in 2014, having saturated capacity in 2013. In
2015, however, hydrocarbon output will expandby a
modest 0.3%as the lift in gas production from Barzan
more than offsets the expected decline in oil output.
This impulse to hydrocarbon growth will be temporary
though, tapering off in 2016, as oil production continues
to decline at a higher rate.
Vigorous investment spending, an expansionary fiscal
stance and a rising population will continue to spur
robust broad-based growth in the non-hydrocarbon
sector. Services will be the largest contributor to growth,
followed by construction (figure1.2).
4
2015
2016
0.75
0.75
0.75
Qatar
QCBs overnight deposit rate (%)
Qatari riyal/$ exchange rate
Total budget spending (QRbillion)
Current
Capital
3.64
3.64
3.64
231.28
170.80
60.48
257.25
189.46
67.79
286.08
210.54
75.54
3.30
3.80
4.00
External environment
Global growth (%)
US$ LIBOR, 6-month (%)
0.35
0.70
0.70
102.1
97.5
97.0
16.50
15.80
15.40
Services
Construction
Manufacturing
Mining and quarrying
6.3
5.1
2.1
0.4
-0.7
Real
2016
2015
2014
7.7
6.7
7.5
8.0
8.0
6.5
5.4
1.1
0.3
-0.4
Nominal
5.4
6.4
10.0
6.7
5.6
6.0
4.0
2.1
0.1
0.6
Real
1.2
0.7
-1.7
Nominal
1.3
2.0
0.8
1.2
-0.4
-1.2
0.0
2.1
-2.0
Real
Nominal
Services
Manufacturing
2014
2015
2016
100
100
80
60
40
37.8
35.2
50.7
13.0
46.0
15.0
14.0
44.9
35.4
42.4
46.9
39.2
20
0
7.0
6.3
5.5
42.9
41.4
32.4
80
60
40
20
8.9
9.6
8.8
9.6
8.9
10.0
Real
Nominal
Real
Nominal
Real
Nominal
2015
2016
20
15
10
15
8.7
6.5 6.5
8.5
6.4
5
0.3
-1.8
10
-1.1
Agriculture
7.5 7.0
3.8
0
-5
20
17.5
16.1
15.0
Construction
Services
Manufacturing
-5
Nominal GDP
Qatars GDP deflator is susceptible to movements in
hydrocarbon product prices, which are determined on
international markets. Rising hydrocarbon prices tend to
raise the growth rate of nominal GDP relative to that of
real GDPvice versa for falling prices.
Despite robust real GDP expansion, nominal GDP growth
is predicted to moderate slightly from 6.8% in 2013 to
6.5% in 2014 and to 6.7% in 2015, mainly on assumed
lower hydrocarbon prices. In 2016, nominal GDP growth
is set to increase to 8.0% on the back of solid expansion
in nominal non-hydrocarbon activities, supported by
stabilising hydrocarbon prices.
Inflation
Annual inflation, as measured by the change in Qatars
consumer price index, is forecast to average 3.0% in
2014, and to nudge up to 3.5% and 3.7% in 2015 and 2016.
Domestic sources of inflationary pressures are expected
to build over the projection period as local demand
strengthens. The vigorous growth of local demand will
push up prices of non-tradable goods and services,
including rentals, especially in affordable housing for the
low- to middle-income segment of the market where
availability is usually tighter.
Benign global inflationary conditions and the US dollars
recent appreciation will help offset domestic sources of
inflationary pressure in the near term, keeping overall
inflation in check. Nonetheless, the offset from falling
global commodity and manufactured goods prices is set
to diminish gradually as global prices are expected to
slowly stabilise.
Risks of rapidly accelerating inflation seem contained
at the moment but consumer price pressures would
pick up if imported inflation gathered pace more
quickly than currently foreseen. A global commodity
supply shock, a depreciation of the US dollar or an
unanticipated global demand recovery would add to
local price pressures.
Fiscal outlook
The fiscal surplus is predicted to remain robust in 2014
at nearly 13% of GDPthough down a little on 2013s
outcomeand is set to narrow further over the rest of
the projection period (see table 1.1). (Fiscal estimates and
forecasts are made on a calendar-year basis; MOF data
are provided on an AprilMarch fiscal year basis.) This
narrowing will be driven by a combination of growing
expenditure (capital and recurrent) as the public
investment programme gathers pace, and of slipping
hydrocarbon revenue (reflecting both declining output
from maturing oil fields and lower hydrocarbon prices).
The strong boost to the fiscal surplus that larger
investment income transferred from Qatar Petroleum
(QP) gave in 2013 and 2014 (box2.4 in Junes QEO) is
set to moderate gradually over the rest of the outlook
period. This fading impetus is expected as hydrocarbon
receipts continue declining and as QP spending picks up
over 20152016, with investments in recovery of oil from
maturing fields.
The mirror image of the narrowing headline fiscal surplus
is a widening of the non-hydrocarbon deficit as a share
of GDP, to 10.9% and 13.1% in 2015 and 2016, from 8.8%
in 2014. Relative to non-hydrocarbon GDP, this deficit is
expected to increase from nearly 18% in 2014 to 20.2%
and 22.3% in 2015 and 2016. This widening suggests an
expansionary fiscal stance over the next two years, which
will support growth of the non-hydrocarbon economy.
Balance of payments
The external current account surplus is expected to
drift down over the projection period but to remain
ample (see table 1.1). The key factors are the decline in
hydrocarbon export revenue, higher imports (reflecting
stronger domestic demand) and higher foreign workers
remittances (in line with the expected growth in the
expatriate population).
As the bulk of the current account surplus is recycled
abroad as overseas investments, the current account
surplus will be far greater than the overall balance-ofpayments surplus. This overall surplus will support the
foreign reserves position of QCB, and so foreign reserves
cover is expected to remain robust, comfortably exceeding
sixmonths of total imports of goods and services.
Break-even price
$ per barrel
QR billion
120
100
-20
80
-40
60
-60
40
-80
20
-100
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-120
Note: Projections assume the revenue received for Qatars LNG basket is
indexed to the oil price.
Source: Source: MDP&S calculations.
QEO, 7.8
Update, 6.3
QEO, 6.3
6.1
6.2
2014
(December)
2015
(June)
5.9
2014
(June)
9
Update, 7.78
7
6.6
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
(December)
Inflation
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
6.1
5.7
6.5
5.5
6.4
6.3
5.8
6.1
6.0
6.1
6.5
5.9
6.4
6.2
6.8
5.9
6.7
6.0
5.5
6.9
6.6
5.5
6.9
6.7
6.9
6.9
6.0
6.8
6.6
7.7
6.4
7.0
6.8
7.5
5.5
6.9
6.0
5.8
7.4
6.1
5.0
..
6.1
..
6.4
6.1
6.3
..
7.8
..
..
6.5
7.8
5.0
..
5.0
5.5
..
2.9
..
5.4
9.9
3.7
6.5
11.4
6.3
5.0
4.5
6.4
6.1
7.7
6.0
7.5
..
6.9
..
6.6
10.9
7.6
3.4
10.2
7.0
5.2
7.1
7.0
8.5
6.1
..
4.0
6.9
..
..
9.0
..
..
..
..
7.4
8.9
7.9
..
7.6
..
..
7.4
10.4
..
..
6.0
..
3.4
3.6
3.5
4.3
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.4
3.7
3.4
2.7
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.5
4.4
4.5
4.0
4.0
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.3
4.0
3.5
4.6
3.8
4.2
3.5
3.3
3.4
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.0
..
4.8
..
5.0
4.6
4.8
..
3.6
..
..
4.5
4.4
3.0
..
4.5
4.5
Consensus (mean)
Median
High
Low
Standard deviation
Coefficient of variation (%)
6.1
6.1
6.8
5.5
0.4
6.0
6.6
6.8
7.7
5.5
0.6
9.1
6.2
6.1
7.8
5.0
1.0
15.7
6.4
6.2
11.4
2.9
2.3
35.5
7.0
6.9
10.9
3.4
2.0
29.5
8.1
7.7
10.4
6.0
1.3
16.4
3.5
3.5
4.3
2.7
0.3
9.1
4.1
4.2
4.6
3.3
0.4
10.2
4.3
4.5
5.0
3.0
0.5
12.5
Memo items
Consensus (mean) June 2014
Update forecasts December 2014
5.9
6.3
6.2
7.7
..
7.5
5.6
6.5
6.2
6.7
..
8.0
3.7
3.0
4.2
3.5
..
3.7
QEO, 6.8
Update, 6.5
6.4
5.6
QEO, 6.6
6.2
Update, 6.77
7.0
6
5
2014
(June)
2014
(December)
2015
(June)
2015
(December)
3.7
4.2
4.1
QEO, 3.4
Update, 3.5
2015
(June)
2015
(December)
3.5
QEO, 3.0
Update, 3.0
2014
(June)
2014
(December)
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
UK Brent
125
115
105
95
85
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct Nov
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
60
Forecast
36.4
27.9
97.0
90
75
Growth (%)
104.0
105.0
31.6
104.1
102.8
99.4
40
97.3
10
61.8
1.0
45
Oil prices
Global oil prices have dropped sharply since late June,
with Brent spot prices in mid-November 2014 more than
30% below their 12-month peak of $115.2 per barrel on
19June (figure1.9). A conjunction of expanding supply
15
0
30
20
79.0
-0.9
-1.3
-2.0
-3.3
30
75
0
-10
-20
-36.3
-30
-40
Note: Simple average of three spot prices: Dated Brent, WTI and Dubai Fateh.
Source: IMF, WEO October 2014 database (http://http://www.imf.org/external/
pubs/ft/weo/2014/01/weodata/download.aspx), accessed 21 October 2014.
Consumption
95.5
Forecast
94.0
92.5
91.0
89.5
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15
88.0
70
86.5
60
50
40
30
20
Gas prices
Octobers WEO revised down its forecast for average
natural gas pricesa weighted average of European,
Japanese and US pricesby 3.3% from the WEO
forecast of April 2014. The revision is due to booming
production in the US, faster than expected restocking
and weaker demand in Europe as economic growth
slows (figure1.12). The pass-through of lower oil prices in
the second half of 2014 to longer-term liquefied natural
gas (LNG) contract prices in Japan and other parts of Asia
is expected in the first part of 2015.
10
Jan
11
May Sep
11
11
Jan
12
May Sep
12
12
Jan
13
May Sep
13
13
Jan
14
LNGJapan
US Henry Hub
Index
180
48.6
174
170
36.2
160
154
150
100
159
154
155
3.4
130
110
165
11.0
140
120
Forecast
171
-3.7
110
-3.3
-3.1
0.2
113
-36.9
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
10
May Sep
14
14
JanApr Jul OctJanApr Jul OctJanApr Jul OctJanApr Jul OctJanApr Jul OctJanApr Jul Oct
09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Forecast error
Absolute, % of actual price
16
110
12
100
90
80
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14
Oil ($/bbl)
2014
95.0
90.0
98.0
95.0
99.5
100.0
97.0
97.5
97.0
95.6
98.0
96.0
96.0
96.0
96.3
95.0
WTI
2015
85.0
97.0
86.0
91.0
85.0
98.0
88.0
94.0
85.0
87.5
82.0
84.5
90.5
90.0
80.5
90.0
97.0
88.4
84.5
95.0
73.8
77.0
80.0
79.0
95.8
97.4
96.7
91.4
95.1
93.1
94.6
100.3
100.4
93.7
87.0
99.0
95.8
96.6
97.4
77.3
84.0
87.0
95.8
93.5
77.5
80.8
90.0
101.8
97.8
72.3
96.8
95.5
95.5
96.0
90.4
96.8
94.0
75.0
112.0
106.0
82.0
95.8
95.0
95.0
100.3
96.0
95.5
95.0
97.0
97.7
97.0
82.0
85.0
83.0
102.0
83.0
83.0
95.0
94.0
94.6
103.0
82.0
90.0
86.5
104.0
111.0
101.0
105.9
101.7
104.6
102.8
95.6
100.3
102.0
107.0
102.4
103.5
101.4
108.0
102.7
101.9
101.7
102.5
106.0
105.5
102.0
101.9
107.4
103.0
102.2
100.0
103.0
104.4
104.4
Consensus (mean)
Median
High
Low
Standard deviation
Coefficient of variation (%)
96.1
96.0
100.3
87.0
2.3
2.4
88.3
88.2
103.0
73.8
7.1
8.1
91.0
90.0
112.0
72.3
10.1
11.1
103.0
103.0
108.0
94.0
2.7
2.6
Memo items
IMF (Oct 2014)
a
World Bank (Oct 2014)
2014
98.4
95.5
WTI
2015
92.1
90.0
2016
89.9
90.9
2014
105.7
105.9
2016
80.0
93.0
95.0
104.0
94.0
80.0
85.0
82.0
90.5
80.0
88.0
90.0
95.0
91.0
2014
105.0
94.0
105.0
104.0
107.2
106.0
104.0
103.9
103.0
103.4
104.7
103.3
101.7
102.0
100.4
98.0
102.0
104.4
105.0
UK Brent
2015
90.0
105.0
90.0
98.0
93.0
104.0
97.0
98.5
85.0
95.5
85.0
91.5
92.5
94.0
88.8
100.0
80.0
97.6
100.0
83.8
88.0
101.0
96.2
100.0
100.0
90.0
82.0
88.0
98.0
100.5
99.3
80.5
106.0
94.3
100.8
98.0
90.0
100.0
92.0
88.0
91.0
105.0
92.0
92.0
100.0
98.0
101.7
95.0
94.5
95.3
106.0
80.0
6.6
7.0
UK Brent
2015
104.0
99.9
2016
85.0
98.0
99.0
Gas ($/mmbtu)
US Henry Hub
2014
2015
4.3
4.5
2016
4.8
4.5
4.6
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.5
4.6
5.1
4.4
4.6
4.5
3.9
3.9
4.2
4.4
4.0
4.4
90.0
98.0
85.0
96.0
95.0
90.0
86.0
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.4
3.9
3.9
102.0
100.7
105.9
98.0
87.8
93.0
102.0
105.0
103.8
75.3
105.0
102.5
115.0
110.0
90.0
96.0
90.0
93.0
95.0
115.0
4.4
4.5
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.2
4.3
4.0
4.4
4.5
4.0
3.9
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.0
4.9
5.0
4.4
4.4
4.5
3.9
4.0
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.4
3.7
3.6
4.5
3.8
96.8
97.5
115.0
75.3
8.7
9.0
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.2
0.1
2.0
4.0
4.0
4.6
3.7
0.3
6.2
2016
102.0
100.8
2014
4.5
4.4
110.0
97.0
80.0
95.0
90.0
92.5
98.0
100.0
98.0
105.0
Gas ($/mmbtu)
2015
4.0
4.7
4.3
4.1
5.1
3.6
0.4
9.6
2015
4.1
4.9
102.8
101.5
99.6
101.5
Crude oil
99.4
95.7
91.4
97.4
97.3
96.6
93.9
Note: Bold = updated; blue= new forecaster; red = updated annual number with Q4 forecast.
a = extrapolation of average crude spot price to WTI and Brent. b Average of WTI, Brent and Dubai Fateh spot prices.
Source: Consolidated from various reports and news articles.
12
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.0
4.7
4.0
4.1
4.9
4.3
136
119
127
170
182
153
161
190
175
167
171
175
163
169
171
157
164
Industrial inputs
200
Forecasts
159
155
157
159
152
156
160
120
80
40
October 2014
April 2014
4.5
4.5
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.9
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2014
2015
2016
2.0
April 2014
8
6.5
6.6
6.5
6
3.8
3.1
0.8
1.3
1.7
3.0
4.5
2.6
2.2
0.9
0.8 0.8
14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16
Eurozone
US
Japan
Developing
MENA
Asia
2
0
October 2014
10
7.5
14
7.4
8
6
4.1
2.0
8.0
0.5
0.9
2.1
2.1
2.7
2.0
4.2 4.2
2.6
1.2
14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16
Eurozone
US
Japan
Developing
Asia
MENA
Economic growth
Sector breakdown
Aggregate analysis
Real GDP
Hydrocarbons
Non-hydrocarbons
25
23.0
40
37.3
34.3
35
30
25
20
16.3
16.2
20
16.2
11.0
10.9
9.3 10.1
6.3
8.2
5.8
6.7 6.3
6.9 6.3
5.2 5.9
3.3
5.8
6.3
0.3
-0.6
10
5
11.8
10.9
6.3
5.9
0.2
5
0
-2.3
-5
Note: Hydrocarbons include crude oil and gas extraction under mining and
quarrying.
Source: MDP&S estimates based on data available at http://www.qsa.gov.qa/
eng/index.htm, accessed 15 October 2014.
15
10
8.8
6.3
15
10.1
11.1
11.1
15
Real GDP
Hydrocarbons
Manufacturing
Electricity and water
16.2
4.1
1.4
1.1
9.9
500
400000
400
300000
300
200000
200
100000
100
-100000
-100
-200000
-200
H1 2014
Note: Preliminary estimates for 2013 and 2014, gross capital formation includes
statistical discrepancy
Source: MDP&S estimates based on data available at http://www.qsa.gov.qa/
eng/index.htm), accessed 27 October 2014.
16
6.3
3.3
1.0
0.7
1.5
-0.3
0.9
0.7
4.2
-0.5
500000
H2 2013
10.1
4.8
H1 2013
Construction
Services
Imputed bank services
-0.6
5.8
3.8
1.0
1.2
-0.3
6.3
6.3
5.9
4.9
5.0
4.9
1.5
0.8
-1.1
1.5
0.2
-0.5
2.1
0.2
-0.9
0.1 -0.5
0.1
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
20
Services
Finance and real estate
Transport and telecommunications
Government, household and social services
Trade and hospitality
20
15
15
10
10
5
0
10.9
13.1
10.1
13.2
12.7
12.4
H2 2012
H1 2013
H2 2013
H1 2014
9.0
H1 2011
H2 2011
H1 2012
5
0
Jan
12
Apr
12
Jul
12
Oct
12
Jan
13
Apr
13
Jul
13
Oct
13
Jan
14
Apr
14
Jul
14
Oct
14
2.30
2.25
2.20
2.15
2.10
2.05
2.00
1.95
1.90
1.85
1.80
1.75
1.70
1.65
1.60
1.55
1.50
1.45
1.40
80
58.1
12
12.2
53.2
52.1
41.9
41.5
44.6
44.4
46.8
47.9
80
20
0
Note: Hydrocarbons include crude oil and gas extraction under mining and
quarrying.
Source: MDP&S estimates based on data available at http://www.qsa.gov.qa/
eng/index.htm, accessed 15 October 2014.
20
16
14.0
55.6
40
41.9
13.2
55.4
60
16
58.5
60
20
17.9
58.1
40
20
Non-hydrocarbons
Hydrocarbons
100
12
9.2
Consumer prices
8.9
8.8
13.8
9.2
12.1
8.0
8.3
14
12
10
9.2
2.3
2
0
2.0
2
0
Core
4.0
3.0
Economic diversification
The share of non-hydrocarbon output in nominal
GDP continued to increase, following a trend begun
in the second half of 2012, edging up to 47.9% of GDP
in the first half (figure2.8). Although this suggests
3.5
Headline
4.0
3.8
3.4
2.5
3.5
3.1
2.9
3.0
2.3
2.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
Jan13 Mar13 May13 Jul13 Sep13 Nov13 Jan14 Mar14 May14 Jul14 Sep14
0.0
Note: Core inflation is headline inflation less food, rent and utilities.
Source: MDP&S estimates based on data available from Qatar Information
Exchange database (http://www.qix.gov.qa/), accessed 17 November 2014.
17
2.7
6.5
58.8
3.3
7.2
83.2
3.1
9.7
111.2
3.8
12.3
145.8
222.7
14.4
19.9
35.0
38.7
600
500
400
436.7
13.3
13.8
7.0
12.1
23.2
22.5
425.9
382.2
245.8
155.7
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
300
200
100
0
Source: MDP&S.
18
52
300
29
250
200
66
20
139
4
20
20
40
5
58
150
100
50
0
Source: MDP&S.
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
10
8
6
3.8 3.6
3.7 3.5 3.4
3.4
3.4 3.2 3.6
3.1 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7
3.0
2.8 3.1
2.6 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.8
4
2
0
Jan
13
Mar
13
May
13
Jul
13
Sep
13
Nov
13
Jan
14
Mar
14
May
14
Jul
14
Sep
14
-2
60
-4
50
-6
40
30
20
10
-10
Producer prices
Producer price inflationa measure of the cost of
goods produced in Qatarhas remained tame. In the
first half of 2014, producer prices rose by 1.2% over the
same period in 2013 (figure 2.11). Mute price increases
were seen across the board. The price of oil, which has a
weight of 77.1% in the overall index, was only marginally
higher in the first half of 2014 than in the same period in
2013, and was kept in check by the lower prices seen in
the first quarter of 2014.
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14
Source: QE (http://www.qe.com.qa/pps/qe/qe%20english%20portal/Pages/
Home/) and CEIC database, accessed 16 November 2014.
S&P Global
UAE (Dubai Financial Market)
UAE (Abu Dhabi Index)
Saudi Arabia (TSA Index)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
Producer prices
Hydrocarbons
41.0
37.1
35.9
33.3
22.5
19.8
14.0
11.2
-0.8
-1.2
8.7
5.4
2.7
2.9 2.3
2.6
1.4 1.7 1.1
1.5
0.2
-1.2
-0.4 -1.1
-2.3
2.3
1.2
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-20
Jan 13 Apr 13
Jul 13
Jul 14
Oct 14
Source: QE (http://www.qe.com.qa/pps/qe/qe%20english%20portal/Pages/
Home/) and CEIC database, accessed 16 November 2014.
Sep 13
Dec 13 Mar 14
Jun 14
Sep 14
120
Note: The index shows sales transactions of real estate properties (including
land, villas and residential estates) based on data supplied by the Ministry of
Justice.
Source: QCB, http://www.qcb.gov.qa/English/Publications/Statistics/RealEstate/
Pages/RealEstatePriceIndex.aspx, accessed 22 October 2014.
Growth (y o y, %)
QR billion
550
50
500
40
450
30
400
20
350
10
300
Dec 12 Mar 13
20
Jun Aug
14 14
8
6
4
2
JanAug 2013
JanAug 2014
Contractors
Real estate
Aug 13
Dec 13
General trade
Apr 14
Aug 14
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Credit
The slowdown in money supply growth in 2014 is
mirrored in the movements of the counterpart assets
of the banking system, of which banks credit facilities
form the main component, with bank credit witnessing a
similar slowdown in growth. In the first eight months of
2014, the growth rate of domestic creditrepresenting
over 90% of banks total creditslowed to 4.2% from
nearly 7% in the year-earlier period. Credit growth was
exclusively to the private sector (private businesses
and consumer credit), while credit to the public sector
contracted by about 3.7%, acting as a drag on overall
domestic credit growth (figure 2.17).
260
210
160
Consumption
Private sector
Public sector
110
7
60
6
5
Dec 13
2
1
0
-1
-2
JanAug 2013
Dec 12
JanAug 2014
Aug 14
10
Public sector
Companies/institutions
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Mar 12
Sep 12
Mar 13
Sep 13
Mar 14
Sep 14
Fiscal accounts
Fiscal year 2013/14
Total government revenue for FY2013/14 has been
revised by MOF to QR342.4billion (up 14.9%) and total
expenditure to QR234.5billion (up 15.3%) since Junes
QEO (figure2.21). These revisions lift the estimated
overall surplus to QR108billion, up from Junes figure of
QR96.6billion. As further revisions are possible, these
estimates remain provisional.
Figure2.21 Total government revenue (QRbillion)
Other
Investment
Oil and gas
400
350
Growth (%)
48
42.8
42
300
36
250
27.7
200
20.4
150
100
0
FY11/12
FY12/13
FY13/14
(Update)
Over the last six fiscal years the volume of other revenue
has shown a rising trend, mainly because of higher
corporate tax receipts, but the share in total revenue has
shown no consistent trend, moving within a band of 15%
to 23% of the total.
Corporate taxes have risen fast in the past six years,
peaking at QR55.5billion in FY2012/13 but falling
back in FY2013/14. Yet despite imports rising by 25%
during 20082013, customs duties have not shown
commensurate growth, which was probably capped by
duty exemptions on imports of machinery, equipment,
raw materials and partially manufactured materials.
Public utility fees contributed just 0.7% of other
revenue in FY2013/14 but still rose from QR230 million in
FY2008/09 to QR330 million in FY2013/14.
Boxfigure Other revenue
Customs duties
Business/corporate income tax
Public utility fees
Miscellaneous
QR billion
75
25
60
20
45
15
30
10
15
30
24
FY13/14
(QEO June 14)
12
6
0
22
18
4.8
50
Current
Total
34.1
35
29.8
30
25.0
25
20.5
14.3
20
14.1
15.2
15
2.4
1.9
-2.1
FY11/12
FY12/13
FY13/14
(Update)
14.1
10
7.4
-1.0
13.2
8.5
6.98.2
7.4
4.7
6.4
9.2
6.6
5.9
4.0
0
-5
FY13/14
(QEO June 14)
-9.5
-9.6
-8.3
-7.8
-9.1
-10.2
-7.3
-9.3
-11.7
-14.0
-16.5
-20.2
-21.7
-17.1
-19.6
-17.1
-21.8
-22.2
-25.1
-32.1
-37.2
-41.3
FY08/09
FY09/10
FY10/11
FY11/12
FY12/13
FY13/14
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
Total revenue
225.7
111.7
Investment
income
58.1
35.9
99.5
16.5
Other
68.0
50
100
150
200
250
Note: The fiscal year runs 1 April31 March. FY2014/15 actual data are
preliminary, for 1April30 September.
Source: MOF.
Oil and gas revenues during the first half of the fiscal
year are down on first-half outcomes of previous
years, reflecting lower output volumes and prices (see
23
Total
188.1
87.5
50
100
150
200
250
Note: The fiscal year runs 1 April31 March. FY2014/15 actual data are
preliminary, for 1April30 September.
Source: MOF.
35.9
16.5
20.2
83.6
51.2
130.9
Capital
111.7
0.0
Other
73.7
164.1
118.5
218.4
Current
Total revenue
Investment
income
81.8
36.7
53.4
50
100
150
200
Note: The fiscal year runs 1 April31 March. FY2014/15 data are preliminary, for
1April30 September.
Source: MOF.
Total
70.3
73.7
73.4
Current
52.7
20.2
24
Capital
19.9
17.5
20
40
60
80
100
Note: The fiscal year runs 1 April31 March. FY2014/15 data are preliminary, for
1April30 September.
Source: MOF.
Total revenue
Total expenditure
200
188.1
164.1
117.9
160
118.5
93.9
93.2
70.3
70.2
120
80
40
25.2
H1, FY2012/13
H1, FY2013/14
H1, FY2014/15
Note: The fiscal year runs 1 April31 March. FY2014/15 data are preliminary, for
1April30 September.
Source: MOF.
Total
Balances with foreign banks
Foreign securities
Others (gold, IMF reserves position, SDR holdings)
54.1
124.8
62.0
41.1
37.6
98.4
83.1
86.7
146.7
48.3
94.5
153.6
53.7
159.4
54.3
160
140
120
101.4
95.8
180
100
80
60
40
20
Jul
13
Jul
14
Sep
14
Source: MDP&S estimates based on data available from CEIC database, accessed
25 November 2014.
143.0
152.6
Income
Transfers
60
52.0
49.8
50
40
34.0
30.4
27.7
30
20
10
0
-4.1
-9.2
H1 2013
H2 2013
H1 2014
-8.3
-10
25
26
What is GDP?
GDP is widely used as a measure of economic output,
as it represents the value of final goods and services
produced in a given period of time, usually one year.
Another way of looking at it is as the sum of value added
across all sectors in the economy over a period.
27
What is investment?
Fiscal concepts
What is the overall fiscal balance?
This is the difference in a given period between total
government revenues (including grants) and total
government expenditures (current and capital) plus net
lending.
28
Monetary concepts
What is reserve money or M0?
Reserve money is a liability of the central bank. It is the
sum of (i)currency issued by and held outside the central
bank; (ii)banks deposits at the central bank to satisfy
reserve requirements and for clearing purposes; and
(iii)in the case of Qatar, other reserves including bank
deposits at the central bank in excess of requirements.
Reserve money can also be expressed in terms of the
central banks counterpart assets, which fall into two
main categories: net foreign assets, which comprise
the net official international reserves plus any other
net foreign assets that are less liquid and hence are not
included in the net official international reserves; and net
domestic assets, which include central bank net claims
on government (claims minus deposits) and claims on
other sectors.
Glossary
What is credit?
Credit creation involves the provision of resources by the
lender (such as banks or any other financial institution)
to the borrower. In this way the lender acquires a
financial claim and the borrower incurs a liability to
repay in the future. Credit to non-financial sectors (such
as government, private businesses and households) is
mainly used to finance production, consumption and
capital formation.
Balance-of-payments concepts
What is the trade balance?
This is the difference between a nations imports and
exports of merchandise measured over a specified
period (normally a calendar year). The trade balance is
part of the wider current account balance.
30