Term Project: Part Two

Confidence Interval Estimates:

A confidence interval is a range of values used to estimate the true
value of a population parameter. The purpose of the confidence
interval is so we can obtain these values instead of a singal value or
point estimate. We can then get an estimated range of values within
which we believe the true population fails based on our varying
degrees of confidence.
Notations:
p
p
n
E

=
=
=
=

population proportion
sample proportion
number of sample size
margin of error

Z/2 = z score separating an area of /2 of the standard normal

distribution
= population mean
x = sample mean
s = population standard deviation
= critical value of chi-sqaured, has a right and left tail.
H = Null Hypothesis
H = Alternative Hypothesis
1. 99% Confidence Interval Estimate for the true Porportion of Yellow
Candies.

Total number of yellow candies = 297

n = 1500
= .05
p = (297/1500) = .198
z = 2.575

Equations:

Math:

Conclusion:
I am 99% confident, that the value for the true proportion of yellow
candies is between 17 and 23 candies.
2. 95% confidence interval estimate for the true mean number of
candies per bag.
x = 60
s = 1.94
n = 25
= .05 in two tails, .025 in one tail
t = 2.064
Equations:

Math:

Conclusion: I am 95% confident that the interval from 59.20 to 60.80

actually does contain the true value of .
3. 98% confidence interval estimate for the standard deviation of the
number of candies per bag.

n = 25
s = 1.94
= .02
R = .01 = 42.980
L = .99 = 10.856
Equations:

Math:

Conclusion:
I am 98% confident that the true standard deviation for the of skittles
per bag is between 2.10 and 2.88.
Hypothesis Tests:
In statistics, a hypothesis is a claim or statment about a property of a
population, this claim may or may not be true. Hypothesis testing is a
procedure done to test that claim. It will help determine weather or not
to accept or reject the statistical hypothesis.
1. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that 20% of all Skittles
candeis are red.
H = .05
H = .05
# of red candies = 305
= .05
n = 1500
p = .20
p = (305/1500) = 0.203

Equations:

Math:

Conclusion: Because the P-Value of 0.77 is greater then than the significance level of
= .05, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
Because we fail to reject the null hypothesis of p = .20, we fail to reject the claim that
20% of all Skittles candies are red.

2. 0.01 significance level to test the claim that the mean number of
candies in a bag of Skittles is 55.
X = 60
s = 1.94
= 55
n = 25
= .01
H : = 55
H : = 55
= .01 so the critical t value is 2.797
Formulas:

Math:
* note that N is not greater than 30, this will be talked about in a later section

The test statistic for the population mean is a critical t value of 12.89 which falls with in
the critical region bounded by the critical value of t = 2.797 found from the signifiance
leavel of alpha. Because is falls in this region, we reject the the null hypothesis and
conclude that there is not sufficient evidence to support the claim that the average number
of candies per bag of Skittles is 55.
Reflection:
To obtain the most accurate results, the sample size for the confidence intervals testing
should be over 30, if the sample size is not over 30 but comes from a normally distributed
population then the test can still be done. In the hypothesis tests that I did for this
research, the sample size was only 25 but did come from a standard normal distribution
so I can assume that the intervals do actually conain the correct values.
The easiest error that could have been made with the data that I used for the tests is that
someone simple could have counted their Skittles incorrectly. Also, if a sample came
from some one who is color blind then the information could have been recorded
incorrectly. Also, if someone bought the wrong flavor Skittles then the colors could be
distrubited differently. I am relying on other people to collect the data correctly to obtain
an accuret result. The sample size was below 30 which can also give you an inaccurate
estimate. The sampling method can always be improved by collecting a larger number of
samples. Based on the data that was collect I can conclude from my research that the
average number of candied per 2.17 oz bag of Skittles is is between 59 and 61. It also
appears that the differnet colors of candies are pretty evenally distributed overall, but not
nesisarlly in each individual bag.