252950002.xlsx.

ms_office

Crystal Ball Report - Full

Simulation started on 2/26/2010 at 23:38:51
Simulation stopped on 2/26/2010 at 23:38:54
Run preferences:
Number of trials run
Extreme speed
Monte Carlo
Random seed
Precision control on
Confidence level
Run statistics:
Total running time (sec)
Trials/second (average)
Random numbers per sec
Crystal Ball data:
Assumptions
Correlations
Correlated groups
Decision variables
Forecasts

100,000

95.00%

2.85
35,099
456,291

13
0
0
0
1

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Forecasts

Worksheet: [Parte_Financiera Final.xls]Flujo de Caja

Forecast: VAN (21,04%)

Cell: D25

Summary:
Entire range is from -47,150.76 to 24,746.68
Base case is 1,549.83
After 100,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 27.37

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast values
100,000
-16,963.58
-17,324.46
--8,654.80
74,905,619.16
0.2531
3.09
-0.5102
-47,150.76
24,746.68
71,897.44
27.37

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Forecast: VAN (21,04%) (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Cell: D25
Forecast values
-47,150.76
-27,777.42
-24,307.10
-21,754.51
-19,503.17
-17,324.49
-15,119.88
-12,732.95
-9,821.04
-5,670.56
24,746.68

End of Forecasts

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Assumptions

Worksheet: [Parte_Financiera Final.xls]COSTO DE PRODUCCION

Assumption: agua
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D24

0.80
0.08

Assumption: etiqueta
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D26

0.02
0.00

Assumption: fosfato
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D20

0.00
0.00

Assumption: funda
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D25

0.02
0.00

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Assumption: luz
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D23

0.15
0.02

Assumption: MOD
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D27

0.63
0.06

Assumption: quinua
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D18

0.00
0.00

Assumption: sodio
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D19

0.00
0.00

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Assumption: zapallo
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D17

0.002
0.000

Worksheet: [Parte_Financiera Final.xls]GASTOS

Assumption: cantidad producida
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D42

55000
5756

Assumption: combustible
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D21

10.00
1.00

Assumption: volantes
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D20

0.04
0.00

Worksheet: [Parte_Financiera Final.xls]Kdetrabajo

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Assumption: Precio
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: B2

0.70
0.07

End of Assumptions

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Sensitivity Charts

Correlacion con la variable

End of Sensitivity Charts

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Crystal Ball Report - Full

Simulation started on 2/27/2010 at 0:10:48
Simulation stopped on 2/27/2010 at 0:10:51
Run preferences:
Number of trials run
Extreme speed
Monte Carlo
Random seed
Precision control on
Confidence level
Run statistics:
Total running time (sec)
Trials/second (average)
Random numbers per sec
Crystal Ball data:
Assumptions
Correlations
Correlated groups
Decision variables
Forecasts

100,000

95.00%

2.82
35,469
461,100

13
0
0
0
1

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Forecasts

Worksheet: [Parte_Financiera Final.xls]Flujo de Caja

Forecast: VAN (21,04%)

Cell: D25

Summary:
Entire range is from -42,731.42 to 64,980.45
Base case is 1,549.83
After 100,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 36.53

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast values
100,000
850.62
391.10
--11,550.29
133,409,146.40
0.2249
3.06
13.58
-42,731.42
64,980.45
107,711.87
36.53

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Forecast: VAN (21,04%) (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Cell: D25
Forecast values
-42,731.42
-13,675.14
-8,960.90
-5,505.52
-2,501.07
390.93
3,353.67
6,589.26
10,417.34
15,950.65
64,980.45

End of Forecasts

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Assumptions

Worksheet: [Parte_Financiera Final.xls]COSTO DE PRODUCCION

Assumption: agua
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D24

0.80
0.08

Assumption: etiqueta
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D26

0.02
0.00

Assumption: fosfato
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D20

0.00
0.00

Assumption: funda
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D25

0.02
0.00

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Assumption: luz
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D23

0.15
0.02

Assumption: MOD
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D27

0.63
0.06

Assumption: quinua
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D18

0.00
0.00

Assumption: sodio
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D19

0.00
0.00

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Assumption: zapallo
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D17

0.002
0.000

Worksheet: [Parte_Financiera Final.xls]GASTOS

Assumption: cantidad producida
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D42

57564
5756

Assumption: combustible
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D21

10.00
1.00

Assumption: volantes
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D20

0.04
0.00

Worksheet: [Parte_Financiera Final.xls]Kdetrabajo

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Assumption: Precio
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: B2

0.84
0.08

End of Assumptions

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Sensitivity Charts

Correlacion con la variable

End of Sensitivity Charts

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Crystal Ball Report - Full

Simulation started on 2/27/2010 at 0:12:24
Simulation stopped on 2/27/2010 at 0:12:27
Run preferences:
Number of trials run
Extreme speed
Monte Carlo
Random seed
Precision control on
Confidence level
Run statistics:
Total running time (sec)
Trials/second (average)
Random numbers per sec
Crystal Ball data:
Assumptions
Correlations
Correlated groups
Decision variables
Forecasts

100,000

95.00%

2.91
34,393
447,114

13
0
0
0
1

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Forecasts

Worksheet: [Parte_Financiera Final.xls]Flujo de Caja

Forecast: VAN (21,04%)

Cell: D25

Summary:
Entire range is from -33,455.12 to 89,093.80
Base case is 1,549.83
After 100,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 43.41

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast values
100,000
18,875.80
18,373.16
--13,727.32
188,439,425.77
0.2204
3.08
0.7272
-33,455.12
89,093.80
122,548.91
43.41

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Forecast: VAN (21,04%) (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Cell: D25
Forecast values
-33,455.12
1,643.75
7,168.38
11,339.97
14,955.55
18,373.11
21,874.38
25,690.07
30,245.80
36,764.36
89,093.80

End of Forecasts

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Assumptions

Worksheet: [Parte_Financiera Final.xls]COSTO DE PRODUCCION

Assumption: agua
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D24

0.80
0.08

Assumption: etiqueta
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D26

0.02
0.00

Assumption: fosfato
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D20

0.00
0.00

Assumption: funda
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D25

0.02
0.00

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Assumption: luz
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D23

0.15
0.02

Assumption: MOD
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D27

0.63
0.06

Assumption: quinua
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D18

0.00
0.00

Assumption: sodio
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D19

0.00
0.00

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Assumption: zapallo
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D17

0.002
0.000

Worksheet: [Parte_Financiera Final.xls]GASTOS

Assumption: cantidad producida
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D42

62000
6200

Assumption: combustible
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D21

10.00
1.00

Assumption: volantes
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: D20

0.04
0.00

Worksheet: [Parte_Financiera Final.xls]Kdetrabajo

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Assumption: Precio
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: B2

0.95
0.09

End of Assumptions

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252950002.xlsx.ms_office

Sensitivity Charts

Correlacion con la variable

End of Sensitivity Charts

Page 24