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Gmail - Fw: Winter Outlook (AFD)

Gmail - Fw: Winter Outlook (AFD) Page 1 of 4 sarah emerson <semerson@gmail.com>

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sarah emerson <semerson@gmail.com>

Fw: Winter Outlook (AFD)

1 message

plowenthal@att.blackberry.net <plowenthal@att.blackberry.net> Reply-To: plowenthal@att.blackberry.net To: kflood@santarosafd.com, semerson@sonic.net, semerson@gmail.com

From this mornings NWS

I'm not going to hold my breath. I'd say it'll be sunny and dry

;

Thu, Dec 31, 2009 at 11:40 AM

LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EURO SHOW A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE AS EARLY AS NEXT WEDS BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY TO AN OVERALL WETTER PATTERN. THE GFS HINTS AT THIS PATTERN CHANGE AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL AS THE EURO HAS LED US ASTRAY MORE THAN ONCE ALREADY THIS WINTER. THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK ONCE AGAIN WANTS TO BRING STRONG WESTERLIES ONTO THE WEST COAST. IF IT VERIFIES IT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH ARCTIC AIR FROM DENVER TO THE EAST COAST THAT STEMS FROM EASTERN CANADA. USUALLY IN THESE TYPES OF SET UPS THE WEST COAST WOULD BE UNDER A STRONG RIDGE BUT THE MODELS SHOW AN OMEGA BLOCK UP OVER WEST-CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE MOIST WESTERLIES COMING ONSHORE AND DRIVING DOWN INTO THE FOUR- CORNERS REGION. AS ALWAYS IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT.

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From: plowenthal@att.blackberry.net Date: Wed, 30 Dec 2009 01:21:18 +0000 To: <flood@santarosafd.com>; <semerson@sonic.net> Subject: Fw: Winter Outlook (AFD)

And in typical fashion

right over up. Yesterdays front stayed to our south. Maybe new years eve's will actually stay on target.

I watched todays wave roll through on radar. Rain to our north and rain to our south and then converged to our east. Skipped

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From: plowenthal@att.blackberry.net Date: Tue, 29 Dec 2009 22:21:18 +0000 To: <semerson@sonic.net.> Subject: Fw: Winter Outlook (AFD)

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From: plowenthal@att.blackberry.net Date: Tue, 29 Dec 2009 21:39:20 +0000 To: <kflood@santarosafd.com>; <semerson@santarosafd.com>; <mbasque@santarosafd.com> Subject: Fw: Winter Outlook (AFD)

I actually did see that and I almost cut and pasted it to you guys. I'm not surprised. Worst fire season

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Worst el nino season

Not so much.

From: "Lowenthal, Paul" <PLowenthal@srcity.org> Date: Tue, 29 Dec 2009 13:33:47 -0800 To: <plowenthal@att.blackberry.net> Subject: FW: Winter Outlook (AFD)

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From: Flood, Keith Sent: Tuesday, December 29, 2009 1:33:42 PM To: Steve Emerson Cc: Basque, Mark; Flood, Keith; Lowenthal, Paul Subject: Re: Winter Outlook (AFD) Auto forwarded by a Rule

I've been following the discussions with baited breath and all I can say is they SUCK!

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12/31/2009

Gmail - Fw: Winter Outlook (AFD)

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On Dec 29, 2009, at 12:58 PM, "Steve Emerson" <semerson@sonic.net> wrote:

I don't know if you guys stay current on the area forecast discussions from the NWS, if not this was posted 12/28 and had a lot more detail than usual. In short I'm not going to be happy if this trend continues, we are pretty much getting cheated out of a good el nino year by an unusual weather pattern.

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Gmail - Fw: Winter Outlook (AFD)

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FXUS66 KMTR 290553 AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA 850 PM PST MON DEC 28 2009

(

)

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

MODELS

BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE

THROUGH THE DEVELOPING MEAN RIDGE BY LATE IN THE DAY NEW YEARS EVE WITH AGAIN THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. HOWEVER IF YOU PLAN ANY FIRST NIGHT ACTIVITIES OUTDOORS MIGHT WANT TO CONSIDER RAIN GEAR FOR AT LEAST SAN FRANCISCO NORTH. MODELS

ARE INDICATING NEXT WEEKEND TO BE DRY BUT MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT CONSISTENT. HOWEVER ENSEMBLES FROM BOTH THE GFS AND EURO INDICATE RIDGING FROM SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE RAIN FROM THE FORECAST SO THE WISHY-WASHY

PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS IN THE EXTENDED FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOULD SAY THAT CURRENT PATTERN APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY SEVERAL KEY FEATURES. NOTICED THAT THE AO INDEX WAS OFF THE CHARTS TODAY IN

THE NEGATIVE. CPC HAD TO EXTEND THE ORDINATE TO -6 TO PLOT THE

CURRENT AO INDEX. ONE HAS TO GO BACK TO 76-77 TO SEE A NEGATIVE AO THAT WAS EVEN CLOSE TO THIS. LOOKING BACK AT DEC JAN OF 76-77

VERY DRY YEAR FOLLOWING THE DISASTER OF 75-76

ONE SEES MANY

SIMILARITIES TO THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN. KEY FEATURE IS DEVELOPING MASSIVE HIGH THAT WILL PINCH-OFF OVER GREENLAND. THIS VERY STRONG ANOMALY TELECONNECTS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND MASSIVE COLD OUTBREAK INTO THE EAST. NOT WHAT ONE EXPECTS

FOR EL NINO WINTER. 76-77 HOWEVER WAS ALSO AN EL NINO WINTER THAT FOLLOWED SEVERAL YEARS OF MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA`S. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT HAS BEEN A VERY RAPIDLY MOVING ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE THAT HAS MOVED RAPIDLY FROM THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE INTO THE

INDIAN OCEAN WHERE CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND WEAKEN BUT THIS MAY ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN AN AREA THAT SHOULD BE VERY DEPRESSED GIVEN EL NINO PATTERN. IF THIS OCCURS THIS MAY EXACERBATE THE RIDGE OVER

CA EMULATING LA NINA LIKE CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN INTO THE PACNW AND DRY FOR CA AND THE SOUTHWEST. IT DID APPEAR THAT BEFORE XMAS EL NINO WOULD STRENGTHEN AND WE MAY HAVE SEEN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS BY NOW AND INTO JANUARY. THIS MOST LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR NOW GIVEN THESE

COMPLICATING MID-LATITUDE FORCING FEATURES.

IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS AT 500 MB OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. ONE SEES ALMOST NO SPREAD FROM RUSSIA THROUGH

CHINA INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC ALMOST TO THE DATELINE

THEN IT IS

LIKE WATER COMING OUT OF A HOSE

THE

LINES GO EVERYWHERE FROM THE

DATELINE TO THE WEST COAST GIVEN THE EXPLANATION ABOVE WE MAY SEE

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Gmail - Fw: Winter Outlook (AFD)

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