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xi
x2 x3
e 1 x ...
2 6
i0 i!
Notethatby taking
derivative
s withrespect tox, weget:
x
dex
2x 3x2
x2
0 1
... 1 x ... ex
dx
2! 3!
2!
d 2ex
2x
0 1 ...
2
dx
2!
Now,Replacing
x withtY, weget:
i
2
3
(
tY
)
(
tY
)
(
tY
)
etY
1 tY
...
i!
2
6
i0
t 2Y 2 t 3Y 3
1 tY
...
2
6
... YtY
... Y00
...
Y
dtt0
2
!
3
!
2
!
t
0
t
0
d2etY
2
3
2
2
tY
...
...
Y
2
t
0
dt
t
0
Taking
the
expected
value
of
etY,and
labelling
function
as
M
(t):
i
ty
M
(t)Ee
ep
(y)
(y)
p
!
all
y
all
y
i
0 i
tY
ty
(k)
M
'(t)t0E
(Y
), M
''(t)t0EY2, ... M
(t) EYK
t
0
M(t) E e
tY
n y
n y
e p (1 p)
y0
y
ty
n
n
t y
n y
t
pe
(
1
p
)
pe
(
1
p
)
y0 y
n1
n2
n1
n1 t
pet et pet (1 p)
pet np pet (1 p)
(1) np
n2
n1
np(1 p)
P(t) E t
y0
n y
n y
p
(
1
p
)
n
y
n
n y
pt
(
1
p
)
pt
(
1
p
)
y0 y
n
p
p
tY
ty y1
ty y
t y
M(t)Ee
e q p
e q qe
q y1
q y1
y1
t
pqe
qe
q y1
t y1
pe
pe
t
1qe 1(1p)et
p
p
tqy
P(t)EtY
tyqy1p
tyqy
q y1
q y1
y1
ptq
pt
pt
y1
tq
q y1
1tq 1(1p)t
M(t) E e
tY
y0
et
ty
e
e e
e
y!
y0
y! y0
t y
y!
e e
t y
et 1
e
e t
P(t) E t t
y!
y0
y! y0
y0
y!
eet e(t1)
1 yt
tY
ty 1 y
M(t) E e e e dy e
dy
0
0
1t
where
1t
1 1 y *
*
*
1
1
M(t)
e
(
0
1
)
(
1
t
)
0
1*
1t
dy
y *
dy
M (t ) E e
tY
1
1 y
dy
ety
y
e
( )
1
y t
1
1t
y
1
1
y
e
dy
y e
dy
0
0
( )
( )
1 y *
*
y
e
dy
where
( ) 0
1 t
1
*
M (t )
(
1
t
)
( )
M ' (t ) (1 t ) 1 ( ) (1 t ) 1
M ' ' (t ) ( 1)(1 t ) 2 ( ) ( 1) 2 (1 t ) 2
E(Y ) M ' (0)
V (Y ) M ' ' (0) M ' (0) ( 1) 2 ()2 2
2
2
2
1
1 y2
1
y
y
dy
M(t) E e e
exp
exp
ty
dy
2
2
2
2
2
22
2
2 2
y2 y(t2) 2
1
exp
2 dy
2
2
2
2
2
2
tY
ty
Completing
thesquare
: (t2)2 2 2t2 t2
2
2
2t2 t2
y2 y(t2) 2 2t2 t2
M(t)
exp
dy
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2t2 t2
y2 y(t2) 2 2t2 t2
exp
2
dy
2
2
2
2
2
2 2
2
2 2
1
y
)
2
exp
dy
2
2
2
2 2
2 2
)
2t t
1
1
exp
exp
dy
2
2
Thelastintegral
being
1,since
itisintegratin
gover the
density
ofa normal
R.V.
: Y ~ N t2,2
2
2 2
t22
2t t
M(t) exp
exp
t
2
2
Distribution of Z2 (Z~N(0,1))
Z ~N(0,1) fZ(z)
1 z2/2
e
z
2
212t
212t
1
1 z2/2
1 z 2
MZ2 (t) e
e dz
e
dz2
e 2 dz (symmetric
about
0)
0
2
2
2
dz 1
Letuz2 z u
0.5u1/2 dz0.5u1/2du
du 2 u
tz2
212t
1 z
e
2
1
2(12t)1/2 (12t)1/2
2
Z2 ~Gamma
(1/ 2, 2) 12
Notes
:
1/2
1 1/2 u/12t
1 1/21 u/12t
1
2
dz
u
e
du
u
e
du
(
1
/
2
)
2 0
2 0
2
12t
y1ey/dy()
(1/ 2)
n
Z1,...,
Zn mutually
independen
t Zi2 ~Gamma
(n/ 2, 2) n2
i1