Pinto Pm2 Ism Ch09

1
INSTRUCTORS RESOURCE MANUAL
CHAPTER NINE
Project Scheduling:
Networks, Duration Estimation, and Critical Path
To Accompany
PROJECT MANAGEMENT:
Achieving Competitive Advantage
By
Jeffrey K. Pinto
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
CHAPTER NINE
PROJECT FOCUS The Spallation Neutron Source Project
INTRODUCTION
9.1 PROJECT SCHEDULING
9.2 KEY SCHEDULING TERMINOLOGY
9.3 DEVELOPING A NETWORK
Labeling Nodes
Serial Activities
Concurrent Activities
Burst Activities
Merge Activities
9.4 DURATION ESTIMATION
9.5 CONSTRUCTING THE CRITICAL PATH
Calculating the Network
The Forward Pass
The Backward Pass
Laddering Activities
Hammock Activities
Steps to Reduce the Critical Path
Project Management Research in Brief Software Development Delays and Solutions
Summary
Key Terms
Solved Problems
Discussion Questions
Problems
Internet Exercises
MSProject Exercises
PMP Certification Sample Questions
Bibliography
TRANSPARENCIES
9.1 RULES FOR DEVELOPING ACTIVITY NETWORKS

1. Some determination of activity precedence ordering must be done
prior to creating the network.
2. Network diagrams usually flow from left to right.
3. An activity cannot begin until all preceding connected activities
have been completed.
4. Arrows on networks indicate precedence and logical flow. Arrows
can cross over each other, although it is helpful for claritys sake
to limit this effect when possible.
5. Each activity should have a unique identifier associated with it
(number, letter, code, etc.).
6. Looping, or recycling through activities, is not permitted.
7. Although not required, it is common to start a project from a
single beginning node. A single node point also is typically used as
a project end indicator.
9.2 LABELS FOR ACTIVITY NODE
Early
Start
ID Number
Activity
Float
Activity Descriptor
Late
Start
Activity
Duration
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
9.3 PROJECT ACTIVITIES LINKED IN SERIES
9.4 ACTIVITIES LINKED IN PARALLEL (CONCURRENT)
9.5 MERGE ACTIVITIES
Activity A
Activity B
Activity D
Activity C
9.6 BURST ACTIVITIES
Activity B
Activity A
Activity C
Activity D
9.7 EXAMPLE OF CREATING A PROJECT ACTIVITY

NETWORK
Information for Network Construction
Name: Project Delta
Activity
Description
Predecessors
Contract signing
None
Questionnaire design
Target market ID
Survey sample
B, C
Develop presentation
Analyze results
Demographic analysis
Presentation to client
E, F, G
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9.8 ACTIVITY NETWORK FOR EXAMPLE
E
Dev. Present.
B
Design
A
Contract
D
Survey
C
Market ID
F
Analysis
G
Demog.
H
Present
11
9.9 ACTIVITY DURATION ESTIMATION BETA

DISTRIBUTION
ESTIMATED TIME FORMULA

TE =
A + 4(B) + C
6
WHERE:
A = MOST OPTIMISTIC TIME
B = MOST LIKELY TIME
C = MOST PESSIMISTIC TIME
12
9.10 CONSTRUCTING THE CRITICAL PATH

INFORMATION FOR PROJECT DELTA
Activity
Description
Predecessors
Contract signing
None
Questionnaire design
Target market ID
Survey sample
B, C
13
Develop presentation
Analyze results
Demographic analysis C
Presentation to client
E, F, G
Estimated Duration
13
9.10 (Cond)
Partial Project Activity Network with Task Durations
B
Design
5
A
Contract
5
E
Dev. Present
D
Survey
13
C
Market ID
6
F
Analysis
4
G
Demog.
9
H
Present
2
14
RULES WHEN USING THE FORWARD PASS
1. Add all activity times along each path as we move through the
network (ES + Dur = EF),
2. Carry the EF time to the activity nodes immediately succeeding

the recently completed node. That EF becomes the ES of the next
node, unless the succeeding node is a merge point.
3. At a merge point, the largest preceding EF becomes the ES for

that node.
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9.12 ACTIVITY NETWORK WITH FORWARD PASS
B 10
Design
5
A
5
Contract
5
10
C
11
Market ID
6
16
11
Dev. Present
D 24
Survey
13
24 F 28
Analysis
4
11
G 20
Demog.
9
28
H 30
Present
2
16
9.13 RULES FOR USING THE BACKWARD PASS
1. Subtract activity times along each path as you move through the
network (LF Dur = LS),
2. Carry back the LS time to the activity nodes immediately

preceding the successor node. That LS becomes the LF of the next
node, unless the preceding node is a burst point.
3. In the case of a burst point, the smallest succeeding LS becomes

the LF for that node.
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ACTIVITY NETWORK WITH BACKWARD PASS
5
6
0
0
B 10
Design
5
11
A
5
Contract
5
5
10
22
11
11
C
11
Market ID
5
6
11
16
Dev. Present
D 24
Survey
13 24
28
24
28
28
Analysis
24
11
28
20
Demograph.
19
28
30
Presentation
28
30
18
9.15 COMPLETED ACTIVITY NETWORK WITH CRITICAL PATH AND ACTIVITY

SLACK TIMES IDENTIFIED
Critical Path is indicated in bold
5
1
6
0
0
0
B 10
Design
5
11
A
5
Contract
5
5
10
22
11
0
11
5
C
11
0 Market ID
5
6
11
16
12 Dev. Present
D 24
Survey
13 24
28
24
0
24
11
28
28
30
Analysis
0 Presentation
28
28
30
20
8 Demograph.
19
28
ES
ID
Slack
Task Name
LS
Duration
EF
LF
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9.16 ACTIVITY NETWORK DEMONSTRATING LADDERING TECHNIQUE
A1
Design
A2
Design
A3
Design
A1
Coding
A2
Coding
A3
Coding
A1
Debugging
A2
Debugging
A3
Debugging
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9.17 NETWORK DEMONSTRATING HAMMOCK ACTIVITY
5
13
18
0
0
0
A
5
5
5
22
5
9
14
5
D
11
0 user needs
5
6 11
12
10
22
C
7
12
21
31
12
9
21
21
11
0
11
25
Coding
14
25
22
31
35
0
10
25
0
25
31
31
31
Debugging
31
5
A 31
Hammock
26
35
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9.18 STEPS TO REDUCE THE CRITICAL PATH
1. ELIMINATE TASKS ON THE CRITICAL PATH
2. REPLAN SERIAL PATHS TO BE PARALLEL
3. OVERLAP SEQUENTIAL TASKS
4. SHORTEN THE DURATION ON CRITICAL PATH

ACTIVITIES
5. SHORTEN EARLY TASKS
6. SHORTEN LONGEST TASKS
7. SHORTEN EASIEST TASKS
8. SHORTEN TASKS THAT COST THE LEAST TO SPEED UP
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DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
1. Define the following terms:
a. Path: group of activities sequenced by relationship through project network logic
b. Activity: any piece of work that will be performed during the project which has an
expected time and cost for completion
c. Early start: the earliest possible date upon which an uncompleted activity or project can
start based on sequencing and scheduling constraints
d. Early finish: the earliest possible date upon which an uncompleted activity or project
can be completed
e. Late start: the latest date an activity may start without delaying other project milestones
or the projects expected completion date
f. Late finish: the latest date an activity may end without delaying other project
milestones or the projects expected completion date
g. Forward pass: a process that works forward though the project network to determine
the earliest start and earliest finish time for an activity
h. Backward pass: a process that works backwards through the project network to
calculate the latest finish times for an uncompleted activity
i. Node: a convergence point of dependent paths in a network
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j. AON: Activity on Node; a method of logic that determines activity networks in which
a node depicts an activity and arrows indicate sequencing between nodes
k. Float: a calculation which determines the amount of time an activity can be delayed
from its earliest start date without delaying the projects completion date
l.
l. Critical Path: the path through the project network having the least amount of float time
and the longest time duration
m. PERT: Project Evaluation and Review Technique; a network analysis system based on
events and probability used when activities and their duration are difficult to define
2. Distinguish between serial activities and concurrent activities. Why do we seek to use
concurrent activities as a way to shorten a projects length?
Serial activities begin with the first step and proceeding to subsequent steps one at a time
sequentially until the project is completed. Serial activities must be completed in order
and one at a time. Therefore, step 2 can not begin until step1 has been completed, and so
on. Concurrent activities allow more than one activity to be performed during the same
time period. This means step 1 may still be in progress when step 2 is started. Project
teams seek out concurrent activities because they allow multiple phases of the project to
be progressing simultaneously. Time savings occur from several activities being
completed at the same time and delays in one step do not created delays in other
concurrent activities. This method allows activities to work more independently which
means the project can progress at a faster pace.
3. List three methods for deriving duration estimates for project activities. What are the
strengths and weaknesses associated with each method?
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One method for deriving time estimates is past experience. This method is beneficial in
that it is easy and uses past examples of similar activities to predict future time estimates.
However, it is limited in that estimates can be distorted by extenuating circumstances,
changes in time and conditions, and information obsolescence. Another method uses
expert opinion. Again, the approach is simple to use and draws on experience and
knowledge of experts. The shortcomings here involve potential inadequacy of staff (at
least relative to the expert giving the opinion) and project-specific complications. A third
method employs mathematical derivations. This approach is more objective and allows
multiple estimates (based on best, most likely and worst case analysis). The weaknesses
of this method are that it is slightly more difficult to use and it disregards past failures
(a.k.a. lessons learned).
4. In your opinion, what are the chief benefits and drawbacks of using beta distribution
calculations (based on PERT techniques) to derive activity duration estimates?
Beta distribution allows for the likelihood that optimistic and pessimistic times will not
be symmetrical. By including realistic estimates of pessimistic and optimistic durations
beta distribution creates a more accurate distribution of alternative duration times. One
drawback to this method is that it is relies on estimates of pessimistic and optimistic time
estimates which not be reliable. There has also been some debate related to how the time
estimates in this method should be calculated and/or interpreted.
5. The shortest total length of a project is determined by the longest path through the
network. Explain the concept behind this statement. Why does the longest path
determine the shortest project length?
This is based on the concept of critical path. The critical path combines the project
activity network (the order to be followed for start/completion of activities) and the
estimated time duration of activities in the sequence (how long each activity will take to
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complete) to determine the length of time required to complete the project. The longest
path of sequential events is used to establish the projects duration because the events in
the path must be performed one after another. Adding the duration times of activities in
the critical path will result in the shortest project length (i.e. how long it will take to
perform required serial activities).
6. The float associated with each project task can only be derived following the
completion of the forward and backward passes. Explain why this is true.
The forward pass establishes the earliest time that activities in the network can begin and
end. The backward pass determines the latest time activities in the network can begin
and end. Float time is the difference between the tasks latest and earliest end time (or
the tasks latest and earliest start time). Hence, float cannot be calculated until the
forward and backward pass have been completed.
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PROBLEMS
1. Consider a project, such as moving to a new neighborhood, completing a longterm school assignment, or even cleaning your bedroom. Develop a set of
activities necessary to accomplish that project and then order them in a
precedence manner to create sequential logic. Explain and defend the number of
steps you identified and the order in which you placed those steps for best
completion of the project.
SOLUTION:
This problem is intended to get students thinking sequentially; that is, developing first a
set of activities or tasks and then applying some informal sequential logic to the order so
that they can become familiar with concepts such as predecessor and successor activities.
The key is to challenge their sequencing to determine if they have correctly identified
both the necessary activities and the order in which they should be considered.
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2. What is the time estimate of the following activity in which the optimistic
estimate is 4 days, pessimistic is 12 days, and most likely is 5 days? Show your
work.
SOLUTION:
Using the Beta distribution for probabilistic estimation, the formula is given as:
TE = (a + 4m + b)/6
Where:
TE = Estimated time for activity
a = most optimistic time to complete the activity
m = most likely time to complete the activity, the mode of the distribution
b = most pessimistic time to complete the activity
The solution to this problem is:
TE
= (4 + 4(5) + 12)/6, or
=6
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3. Consider the following project tasks and their identified best, likely, and worst
case estimates of task duration. Assume the organization you work for computes
TE based on the standard formula. Calculate the TE for each of the following
tasks (round to the nearest integer):
Activity
Best
Likely
Worst
20
21
26
10
20
44
15
15
11
32
44
75
12
17
31
10
TE
29
SOLUTION:
Using the Beta distribution for probabilistic estimation, the formula is given as:
TE = (a + 4m + b)/6
Where:
TE = Estimated time for activity
a = most optimistic time to complete the activity
m = most likely time to complete the activity, the mode of the distribution
b = most pessimistic time to complete the activity
Activity
Best
Likely
Worst
TE
20
21
26
20
10
20
44
22
15
15
13
11
32
44
75
47
12
17
31
19
10
30
4. Construct a network activity diagram based on the following information:
Activity
Preceding activities
B, C
C, D
G, H
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SOLUTION:
32
5.
Consider a project with the following information:
Activity
Duration
--
B, C
E, F, G
Activity
Duration
Predecessors
ES
EF
LS
LF
Slack
--
10
10
10
--
10
13
10
13
--
13
12
17
13
17
13
17
--
10
12
15
17
17
22
17
22
--
A. Construct the project activity network using AON methodology and label each
node.
B. Identify the critical path and other paths through the network.
33
Solution:
a.
a. The Critical Path is: A C D F - H

Alternative paths are:
ABE H
ABDFH
ACGH
34
6. An advertising project manager has developed a program for a new advertising

campaign. In addition, the manager has gathered the time information for each
activity, as shown in the table below.
a)
Calculate the expected activity times (round to nearest integer).
b)
Calculate the activity slacks. What is the total project length? Make sure you
fully label all nodes in the network.
c)
Identify the critical path. What are the alternative paths and how much slack
time is associated with each feeder path?
d)
Identify the burst activities and the merge activities.
Activity
Optimistic
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
1
2
3
6
3
6
1
Time Estimates (wk)

Most Likely
Pessimistic
4
6
3
13
6
8
5
7
7
6
14
12
16
6
Immediate
Predecessor(s)
B
A
A, C
B
D, E, F
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Solution:
a) Calculated activity times are:
Activity
Expected Duration
12
b)
36
The total project length is 22 weeks.

c) The critical path is: B C E G
Path Slack
Other paths are:
d)
ADG
2 days
AE G
1 day
BFG
2 days
Burst Activities:
A and B
Merge Activities: E and G
37
7. Using the following information, create an AON network activity diagram,

calculate each activity TE (rounding to the nearest integer), the total duration of
the project, its early start, early finish, late start and late finish times, and slack for
each activity. Finally, show the projects critical path.
Activity
Preceding activities
Best
Likely
Worst
TE
12
15
25
16
11
38
12
12
30
15
B, C
15
20
15
12
15
12
42
15
D, E
13
17
19
17
10
15
10
11
13
20
14
G, H
J, I
12
22
13
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Solution:
Total duration of the project is 82 days.

Critical Path: A-B-D-G-I-K
40
a. Now, assume that activity E has taken 10 days past its anticipated duration to
complete. What happens to the projects schedule? Has the duration changed? Is
there a new critical path? Show your conclusions.
Solution:
Because Activity E has 10 days of slack associated with it, delaying the completion of
E by 10 days uses up all the slack; therefore, Activity E is now part of the projects
critical path. The overall projects schedule remains unchanged except there is a new
critical path: A-E-G-I-K
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MSProject EXERCISES
Exercise 9.1
Consider the following information that you have compiled regarding the steps needed to
complete a project. You have identified all relevant steps and have made some
determination regarding predecessor/successor relationships. Using MSProject, develop
a simple Network diagram for this project, showing the links among the project activities.
Activity
Predecessors
A Survey site
B Install sewer and storm drainage
C Install gas and electric power lines
D Excavate site for spec house
B, C
E Pour foundation
Solution:
Entering the activities and assigning the predecessor relationships using MSProject, the
Network Diagram should resemble the following:
Microsoft product screen shot(s) reprinted with permission from Microsoft Corporation.
42
Exercise 9.2
Suppose we have a complete activity predecessor table (shown below) and we wish to
create a Network diagram highlighting the activity sequence for this project. Using
MSProject, enter the activities and their predecessors and create a complete activity
Network diagram for this project.
Project - Remodeling an Appliance

Activity
Predecessors
A.
Conduct competitive analysis
B.
Review field sales reports
C.
Conduct tech capabilities assessment
D.
Develop focus group data
A, B, C
E.
Conduct telephone surveys
F.
Identify relevant specification improvements
G.
Interface with Marketing staff
H.
Develop engineering specifications
I.
Check and debug designs
J.
Develop testing protocol
K.
Identify critical performance levels
L.
Assess and modify product components
I, K
M.
Conduct capabilities assessment
N.
Identify selection criteria
O.
Develop RFQ
P.
Develop production master schedule
N, O
Q.
Liaison with Sales staff
R.
Prepare product launch
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Solution:
Entering the above values and predecessor relationships, we would derive the following network diagram. Note that as in the case of
Exercise 9.1, without duration estimates, all activities are assumed to be of similar duration, making every activity in the network part
of the critical path.
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Exercise 9.3
Suppose that we add some duration estimates to each of the activities from exercise 9.1.
A portion of the revised table is shown below. Recreate the Network diagram for this
project and note how MSProject uses nodes to identify activity durations, start and finish
dates, and predecessors. What is the critical path for this network diagram? How do we
know?
Activity
Duration
Predecessors
A Survey site
5 days
B Install sewer and storm drainage
9 days
C Install gas and electric power lines
4 days
D Excavate site for spec house
2 days
B, C
E Pour foundation
2 days
Solution:
Entering the above values and durations, the network diagram would resemble the
following. If this network were shown on a computer screen, you would note that the
critical path is highlighted in red, identifying the activities A B D E as lying on the
critical path.

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1

INSTRUCTORS RESOURCE MANUAL

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.1 RULES FOR DEVELOPING ACTIVITY NETWORKS

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.2 LABELS FOR ACTIVITY NODE

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.3 PROJECT ACTIVITIES LINKED IN SERIES

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.4 ACTIVITIES LINKED IN PARALLEL (CONCURRENT)

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.5 MERGE ACTIVITIES

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.6 BURST ACTIVITIES

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.7 EXAMPLE OF CREATING A PROJECT ACTIVITY

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.8 ACTIVITY NETWORK FOR EXAMPLE

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.9 ACTIVITY DURATION ESTIMATION BETA

ESTIMATED TIME FORMULA

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.10 CONSTRUCTING THE CRITICAL PATH

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

RULES WHEN USING THE FORWARD PASS

2. Carry the EF time to the activity nodes immediately succeeding

3. At a merge point, the largest preceding EF becomes the ES for

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.12 ACTIVITY NETWORK WITH FORWARD PASS

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.13 RULES FOR USING THE BACKWARD PASS

2. Carry back the LS time to the activity nodes immediately

3. In the case of a burst point, the smallest succeeding LS becomes

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

ACTIVITY NETWORK WITH BACKWARD PASS

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.15 COMPLETED ACTIVITY NETWORK WITH CRITICAL PATH AND ACTIVITY

9.16 ACTIVITY NETWORK DEMONSTRATING LADDERING TECHNIQUE

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.17 NETWORK DEMONSTRATING HAMMOCK ACTIVITY

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

9.18 STEPS TO REDUCE THE CRITICAL PATH

1. ELIMINATE TASKS ON THE CRITICAL PATH

2. REPLAN SERIAL PATHS TO BE PARALLEL

3. OVERLAP SEQUENTIAL TASKS

4. SHORTEN THE DURATION ON CRITICAL PATH

5. SHORTEN EARLY TASKS

6. SHORTEN LONGEST TASKS

7. SHORTEN EASIEST TASKS

8. SHORTEN TASKS THAT COST THE LEAST TO SPEED UP

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

The solution to this problem is:

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

4. Construct a network activity diagram based on the following information:

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall