Export led growth strategy in

South East Asia

Introduction

Literature Review
Pros and Cons of ELG
The case of South east asian tigers/ east asian
miracle (some review on literature on it)
Pre-requisites for capital account (low
inflation, monetary policy, no fiscal deficits)
and for export led growth
Contesting theories
ISI (import substituting industrialisation)
versus export oriented
Case Study

S.E. Asia: the Asian Tigers and the East
Asian Miracle
Drivers :
Capital account convertibility/ high powered money
Education and Total factor productivity rise
Export led growth
Differences within S.E Asia
Factors that matter in shaping policy (country size- large vs
small)
HPAEs (Four tigers: Korea, HK, Singapore, Thailand) versus NIEs
(Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand)
Within HPAEs HK and Singapore free trade, attract foreign
investment, export credit available, no subsidies,
Japan, Korea, Taiwan mix of ISI and export led growth (some
domestic protection), force exports or incentivize, currency
devaluation

Impact on Macro Variables

Macroeconomic Impact
Goods Market
Money Market
BOP
Budget deficits and Inflation
Exchange rate mgmt
Foreign debt

Empirical Evidence

Conclusion: The Way Ahead for them?
Is it sustainable?
Is there loss in monetary policy autonomy and
of fiscal autonomy? Impossible trinity in play?
Mundell Fleming?
East asian Miracle to East Asian Crisis in 1997