8udarso Kader| w|ryono

0ed| Yusmen
3c|oo| ol 8us|ress ard Varagererl
8ardurg lrsl|lule ol Tec|ro|ogy
Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas
Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project
Abstract
Tne meonan|sm ol se|eor|ng ano eva|uar|ng exp|orar|on prospeors lor o|| ano gas exp|orar|on
or||||ng proeors |s usua||, oone |no|v|oua||, u|rn oons|oerar|ons on rne reonn|oa| ano
eoonom|oa| aspeors. Tne reonn|oa| aspeor ol rne prospeor |s loouseo on ro nou lar a onanoe ol
o|| ano gas ex|srs, ano rn|s aspeor |s a|so relerreo ro as r|sk aspeor ol rne prospeor. Dn rne
orner s|oe, eoonom|o eva|uar|on |s oone oaseo on preo|oreo resouroe reoover,, an eva|uar|on
ol rne |eve| ol prospeor us|ng genera| |nvesrmenr |no|oarors.
Teonn|oa| aspeors useo ro oe assesseo as a sranoaro prooeoure |n rne exp|orar|on proeors,
our eoonom|o aspeors u||| sr||| neeo ro oe |nrens|ve|, exp|oreo.
ln rne oono|r|on unere rne ava||ao|||r, ol or||||ng s|res are gerr|ng soaroer as ue|| as rne ver,
||m|reo ouoger, rn|s researon proposes rne roo|s ol ana|,ses lor opr|m|z|ng rne se|eor|on ano
p|ann|ng ol exp|orar|on proeors, name|, rne 0|soounreo 0asn F|ou ano rne 0eo|s|on Tree ol
T|m|ng Dpr|on. /na|,ses nave oeen oonouoreo |n rn|s researon, o, |npurr|ng a rnree-,ear
REP/{Reg|on R|sk Faororsj lnoex.
Tne resu|r lrom rnose ana|,ses |s an |noex ol |nvesrmenr oa||eo rne RlJ |noex. 0ompar|ng |r
u|rn rne app||oar|on ol Zero-Dne Programm|ng mernoo |n porrlo||o ana|,ses, |r uas snoun rnar
rne ranks ol |nvesrmenr lrom oorn ana|,ses are o|llerenr.
re, uoros. |nvesrmenr porrlo||o, r|sk laorors, r|sk assessmenr, o|soounreo oasn l|ou, oeo|s|on rree ol
r|m|ng opr|on
193
J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g |
vo|ure Z Nuroer 2 2008
||. Eva|uat|onand0perat|onof The Exp|orat|on0r||||ngProject
T|ere are severa| |rporlarl rallers Worl| cors|der|rg |r correcl|or W|l| exp|oral|or dr||||rg projecls,
rare|y:
1. T|e exp|oral|or dr||||rg projecl, as ore ol l|e ra|r corporerls |r l|e o|| ard gas ous|ress suc| as
s|oWr |r F|gure 3, p|ays ar |rporlarl ro|e |r susla|r|rg l|e o|| ard gas ous|ress.
2. T|e exp|oral|or ard dr||||rg projecl |s a projecl ol |rveslrerl |r l|e upslrear o|| ard gas ous|ress.
3. lr gerera|, |||e ary ol|er projecls ol |rveslrerl, laclors ol r|s|s are |rseparao|e lror exp|oral|or
dr||||rg projecls.
1. Exp|oral|or dr||||rg projecls are se|ecled ard p|arred oased or eva|ual|or resu|ls ol dr||||rg
prospecls.
8ased or l|e aoove cors|deral|ors (espec|a||y po|rl 1), prospecl eva|ual|or ard slud|es are very
dec|s|ve lor a successlu| se|ecl|or ard p|arr|rg ol exp|oral|or dr||||rg projecls.
2.1 Eva|uat|onProcess of Exp|orat|onProspects
T|e eva|ual|or process slarled W|l| appra|s|rg l|e ava||ao|e geo|og|ca| ard geop|ys|ca| dala, ool|
rarua||y as We|| as oy us|rg l|e ex|sl|rg lec|ro|og|es. 0l|s ard 3c|re|derrarr (199Z) |||uslraled l|e
l|oW lor l|e eva|ual|or process ol exp|oral|or prospecls |r gerera|, suc| as s|oWr |r F|gure 1. ll slarled
W|l| l|e deve|oprerl ol a p|ay corcepl, corpr|s|rg ol assessrerls or l|e lour ra|r e|ererls, source
roc|s, reservo|rs, lype ol lraps, ard l|e dyrar|c process ol |ydrocaroor l|r|rg ard r|gral|or.
Fror descr|pl|ors ol l|e p|ay corcepl, ore cou|d esl|rale l|e geo|og|ca| r|s| |eve| or prooao|||ly ol
l|rd|rg |ydrocaroors lor producl|or. 8es|des, ore cou|d a|so appra|se l|e vo|ure ol |ydrocaroors l|al
cou|d poss|o|y oe recovered. T|e appra|sed |ydrocaroor vo|ure W||| oe rade l|e oase lor esl|ral|or ol
erg|reer|rg p|ars, corcerr|rg p|ars lor producl|or prol||es, producl|or lac|||l|es, as We|| as
lrarsporlal|or p|ars.
8ased or r|s| ara|yses, esl|ral|or ol |ydrocaroor vo|ure, as We|| as l|e ca|cu|aled erg|reer|rg p|ars,
l|e rexl process |s ecoror|c ara|yses, W||c| W||| oe used as relererce lor appra|s|rg leas|o|||ly ol l|e
proposed dr||||rg prospecl.
191 195
J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g | J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g |
EXPLORATION
Objective :
- Replacing
Reserve that
produced
- Adding New
Reserve
DEVELOPMENT
Objective :
- Analysis of
Commerciality of
New Field
Discovery
PRODUCTION
Objective :
- Optimizing HC
Production.
- !ncrease
Recovery
Factor
GEOLOGY
GEOPHYS!CS
W!LDCAT
APPRA!SAL
--------------
SURFACE
FAC!L!T!ES
OFFSHORE
PLATFORNS
JAvA AND
NATUNA
BECONE A
L!AB!L!TY
FOR GAS THE
PLATEU !S
LONGER
BECAUSE OF
THE LONG
TERN
SUPPLY
ABANDON
NENT
1 Year
DECL!N!NG
Production Decline
S-30 Years
PLATEAU
Facility Capacity
2-8 Years
DEvELOPNENT
Build-Up
1-S Years
PRE-
PRODUCT!ON
1-8 Years
P
R
O
D
U
C
T
I
O
N
PLATEAU CAPAC!TY
Potensial
STR!PPER
WELLS
NOST OF THE FARN-!N
8 FARN-OUT AND
RESERvES ADD!T!ON
F!RST
O!L
F|gure 1. T|e lour ra|r slages ol o|| ard gas upslrear process|rg seclor
F|gure 2. L|le cyc|e ol ar o|| ard gas l|e|d (0rg, 2005)
|. |ntroduct|on
PT. Perlar|ra 00l J88 (0aera| 0peras| lu|u JaWa 8ag|ar 8aral) |s ore ol l|e aclors ol l|e o|| ard gas
upslrear |rduslr|es |r lrdores|a. T|e corpary's ra|r las| |s lo l|rd ard produce crude o|| ard gas
ava||ao|e |r |ls Wor||rg area, W||c| covers l|e prov|rces ol 8arler, 0Kl, rorl|err parl ol wesl Java lo a
parl ol Cerlra| Java. 3pec|a| slud|es ard experl|se |r lec|r|ca| ard ecoror|c aspecls are l|erelore
recessary lor carry|rg oul l||s las|.
T|ere are |r gerera|, lour ra|r slages |r l|e o|| ard gas upslrear |rduslry, rare|y exp|oral|or slage,
deve|oprerl slage, producl|or slage, ard aoardorrerl slage. T|e exp|oral|or slage |s a|red al
l|rd|rg ard accuru|al|rg crude o|| ard ralura| gas. T||s |s |rdeed l|e lurdarerla| slage |r l|e o|| ard
gas upslrear |rduslr|a| acl|v|l|es, as |l Wou|d corl|ruous|y |rcrease l|e corpary's va|ues l|roug|
add|l|ors ol correrc|a| |ydrocaroor reserves (C||ro|o dar C||ro|o, 2001). T|e reserve W||| l|er oe
lurl|er eva|ualed |r l|e deve|oprerl slage, l|al |s, lo |oo| al |ls prospecl|ve ard correrc|a| |eve|s W|er
l|e reW reserve lror l|e reW l|e|d |s go|rg lo oe deve|oped lor producl|or. us|rg l|e l|e|d deve|oprerl
ard producl|or scerar|os oola|red lror eva|ual|ors al l|e ear||er slages, W||c| are corla|red |r l|e
P00 (P|ar ol 0eve|oprerl), l|e reW reserve W||| l|er oe ready lor producl|or. Nalura||y, l|e o|| ard gas
producl|or W||| oe decreas|rg lo arr|ve al a slage W|ere l|e l|e|d |as lo oe aoardored. T|e lour slages
are |rlerre|aled, lorr|rg a ||le cyc|e ol o|| ard gas as seer |r F|gure 2 (0rg, 2005).
Unexplored
Zone/Area
(Lead &
Prospect)
Undeveloped
Structures
(NewReserve
Discovery)
G&G
(Geology &
Geophysics)
Evaluation
Exploration
Drilling Program
NewStructures /
Reserve Discovery
Re-evaluation
GGR-Eng.
(Acq., Proc.
nt. GGRE
Data)
POD
POD & Oil & Gas
Structures that
ready to develop &
Production.
Existing
Oil & Gas
Field
Re-evaluation
GGREng.
(Acq., Proc.
nt. GGRE
Data)
Crude
OiI
GAS
Production
Process
Economic
Analysis
Economic
Analysis
Economic
Analysis
Available
Reserve
That ready to
production
C
U
S
T
O
M
E
R
INPUT 1ransformation process of main business OUTPUT P
T
P
E
R
T
A
M
IN
A
D
O
H
J
B
B
w
o
r
k
in
g
a
r
e
a
EXTERNAL FACTORS
M
a
n
a
g
e
m
e
n
t
p
o
lic
ie
s
INFORMATION
MANAGEMENT
Building & Maintenance
of Facilities
SUPPORT
K3LL Management
LOGISTIC
MANAGEMENT
MANAGEMENT
OF REPAI RAND
MAINTENANCE
Management of
Legal Affairs and
Public Relations
Financial
management and
accounting
Human Resource
Management
Proses prioritas
Process design
Supporting processes
SUPPORT
nfill Drilling
Well Reparation
Well Stimulation LPG
CO2
F|gure 3. Processes |r l|e upslrear o|| ard gas ous|ress
Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project
2.2 Exp|orat|onR|sks
8a||ey, er a|. (2000) rerl|ored l|al l|e o|| ard gas upslrear |rduslry |s lu|| ol r|s|s ard urcerla|rla|es.
Accord|rg lo 0e'Al| (199Z), l|e r|s|s ol l|e upslrear o|| ard gas ous|ress cou|d oe grouped |rlo l|ree
ra|r aspecls (F|gure 5), as lo||oWs:
a. 0ounrr, ano lnousrr, Env|ronmenra| R|sks. T||s r|s| aspecl |s c|ose|y re|aled lo l|e ous|ress
cord|l|or |r a parl|cu|ar courlry, exlerra||l|es or l|e surrourd|rg erv|rorrerl, as We|| as
c|aracler|sl|cs ol l|e respecl|ve ous|ress. lrc|uded |r l|e aspecl ol r|s|s are: courlry r|s|, courlry
ecorory, erv|rorrerl, gerera| |ssues, pelro|eur |eg|s|al|or, erergy oa|arce, corpel|l|or, ard
acl|v|l|es. A|| l|ese r|s| aspecls are recessary lor l|e eva|ual|or re|al|rg lo ous|ress slraleg|es, suc|
as lo o|| ard gas upslrear ous|ress l|al jusl erlered a courlry lo slarl l|e ous|ress.
o. Seoreonn|oa| R|sks. 0eolec|r|ca| r|s| |s ar aspecl ol upslrear ous|ress r|s|s re|aled lo geo|ogy
ard operal|ora| lec|r|ques. T||s r|s| aspecl |s c|ose|y re|aled lo cord|l|ors ol l|e earl| as l|e ra|r
oojecl ol l|e o|| ard gas upslrear |rduslry.
c. Eoonom|o R|sks. Ecoror|c r|s| |s re|aled lo ecoror|c aspecls, parl|cu|ar|y l|e opporlur|ly lo oola|r
a cerla|r |eve| ol prol|l as l|e u|l|rale goa| ol l|e upslrear ous|ress process. T|e aspecl ol
ecoror|c r|s|s |r gerera| covers: ecoror|c |rd|calors, correrc|a| lypes, laxes, ard producl|or
opl|ors. T||s aspecl ol r|s|s |s recessary lor eva|ual|ors l|al are d|recl|y correcled lo l|rarc|a| prol|l
ca|cu|al|ors as erd goa| ol l|e ous|ress process.
lr l|e overa|| eva|ual|or ol l|e prol|l see||rg upslrear ous|ress process, l|e l|ree r|s| aspecls are
We|g|led d|llererl|y, suc| as s|oWr |r F|gure 5. T|e aspecl ol geo|ogy ard geolec|r|ca| r|s|s |s
We|g|led 50, W|ereas l|e lWo ol|er aspecls ol r|s|s are We|g|led 25. lr gerera|, l|e aspecl ol
geolec|r|ca| r|s|s |s rade l|e ra|r locus |r upslrear ous|ress |rveslrerl slud|es, reverl|e|ess, l|e
lWo ol|er aspecls ol r|s|s are a|so |rporlarl, cors|der|rg ool| aspecls are We|g|led 50 ol l|e lola|
We|g|led r|s|s.
Vapp|rg l|e l|ree aspecls ol r|s|s or l|e dr||||rg prospecl, l|e l|ree aspecls ol r|s|s are aclua||y preserl
al l|e slages oelore ard aller eva|ual|or ol l|e dr||||rg prospecls, suc| as seer |r F|gure . Al l|e ear|y
slage, aller sludy|rg ard eva|ual|rg l|e prospecl, 0r||||ng Prospeor l |s produced, W||c| |as a|ready
|rc|uded geolec|r|ca| r|s|s |r l|e ca|cu|al|or ol prospecls. Vary o|| corpar|es corducl dr||||rg oased or
resu|ls ol dr||||rg prospecls al l||s slage, espec|a||y l|e ral|ora| o|| corpar|es operal|rg |r l|e
corpary's courlry ol or|g|r.
Neverl|e|ess, l|e ol|er lWo r|s|s, respecl|ve|y l|e Courlry R|s| ard Ecoror|c R|s| or a coro|ral|or ol
ool| r|s|s, cou|d oas|ca||y oe |rc|uded |r l|e ca|cu|al|or lor opl|r|z|rg l|e |rveslrerl porllo||o lo
produce l|e 0r||||ng Prospeor ll. Vu|l|ral|ora| o|| corpar|es |ave rade |l a slardard procedure lo
|rc|ude l|e lWo respecl|ve r|s|s |r l|e ca|cu|al|or ol |rveslrerl, cors|der|rg l|e lacl l|al ru|l|ral|ora| o||
corpar|es are usua||y operal|rg |r rary d|llererl courlr|es. T|us, l|e l|ree r|s| laclors s|ou|d oe
cors|dered |r |rveslrerl porllo||o p|arr|rg lo ersure l|e |rveslrerl ol ga|r|rg opl|ra| va|ues.
19 19Z
J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g | J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g |
PLAY
CONCEPT
Source Rock (Ps)
Reservoir (Pr)
Trap (Pt)
Timing 8
Nigration (Pd)
PLAY
CONCEPT
Source Rock (Ps)
Reservoir (Pr)
Trap (Pt)
Timing 8
Nigration (Pd)
VOLUMETRICS
volumetric Distribution
Of Hydrocarbons
(!n-Place and Estimated
Recoverable)
VOLUMETRICS
volumetric Distribution
Of Hydrocarbons
(!n-Place and Estimated
Recoverable)
ENGINEERING
Conceptual
Development Plant
Facilities Costs
Production Profile
Recovery Factor
ENGINEERING
Conceptual
Development Plant
Facilities Costs
Production Profile
Recovery Factor
RISK
Testing a Stabilized
Flow of
Hydrocarbons
RISK
Testing a Stabilized
Flow of
Hydrocarbons
ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
Cash Flow
Nodel
and value
Neasures
ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
Cash Flow
Nodel
and value
Neasures
POSTDRILL
REVIEW
!f Success,
Compare Actual
Parameters to
Predicted;
!f Failure,
Reason Why
POSTDRILL
REVIEW
!f Success,
Compare Actual
Parameters to
Predicted;
!f Failure,
Reason Why
F|gure 1. Eva|ual|or Process ol Exp|oral|or Prospecls (0l|s ard 3c|re|derrarr, 199Z)
{25%)
COUNTRY
& INDUSTRY
ENVIRONMENT
{25%)
PROJECT
ECONOMICS
GEOTECHNICAL
{50%)
COUNTRY & INDUSTRY ENV.
-Country Risk
-Economy
-Environtment
-General Issue
-PetroleumLegislation
-Energy Balance
-Competitors
-Activity
PROJECT ECONOMICS
-Economic Indicators
-Commercial Types
-Taxes
-Fiscal Terms
GEOTECHNICAL
-Data
-Basin
-Reserves
-Play Type
-PetroleumSystems
-Technical Feasibility
{25%)
COUNTRY
& INDUSTRY
ENVIRONMENT
{25%)
PROJECT
ECONOMICS
GEOTECHNICAL
{50%)
COUNTRY & INDUSTRY ENV.
-Country Risk
-Economy
-Environtment
-General Issue
-PetroleumLegislation
-Energy Balance
-Competitors
-Activity
PROJECT ECONOMICS
-Economic Indicators
-Commercial Types
-Taxes
-Fiscal Terms
GEOTECHNICAL
-Data
-Basin
-Reserves
-Play Type
-PetroleumSystems
-Technical Feasibility

DRILLING
PROSPECT I
COUNTRY& INDUSTRY
ENVIRONTMENT RISK ECONOMIC RISK
GEOTECHNICAL (SUB SURFACE) RISK DRILLING
PROSPECT II.A
DRILLING
PROSPECT II.B
DRILLING
PROSPECT II
EVALUATION
EVALUATION
EVALUATIO
N
EVALUATION

DRILLING
PROSPECT I
COUNTRY& INDUSTRY
ENVIRONTMENT RISK ECONOMIC RISK
GEOTECHNICAL (SUB SURFACE) RISK DRILLING
PROSPECT II.A
DRILLING
PROSPECT II.B
DRILLING
PROSPECT II
EVALUATION
EVALUATION
EVALUATIO
N
EVALUATION
DRILLING
PROSPECT I
COUNTRY& INDUSTRY
ENVIRONTMENT RISK ECONOMIC RISK
GEOTECHNICAL (SUB SURFACE) RISK DRILLING
PROSPECT II.A
DRILLING
PROSPECT II.B
DRILLING
PROSPECT II
DRILLING
PROSPECT I
COUNTRY& INDUSTRY
ENVIRONTMENT RISK ECONOMIC RISK
GEOTECHNICAL (SUB SURFACE) RISK DRILLING
PROSPECT II.A
DRILLING
PROSPECT II.B
DRILLING
PROSPECT II
EVALUATION
EVALUATION
EVALUATIO
N
EVALUATION

F|gure 5. T|ree aspecls ol r|s|s |r l|e upslrear ous|ress (0e Al|, 199Z)
F|gure . Pos|l|ors ol l|e l|ree aspecls ol r|s|s loWards 0r||||rg Prospecls
Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project
lr l||s l|ra| projecl, ool| r|s|s, l|e courlry-|rduslry erv|rorrerla| r|s| ard ecoror|c r|s|, W||c|
corpr|ses 50ol l|e lola| r|s|s, W||| oe rade l|e ra|r laclor lor lurl|er d|scuss|or. 0elerr|ral|or or
l|e lWo r|s|s W||| oe d|scussed |r l|e lo||oW|rg secl|or.
2.3 Heasur|ng6ountry-|ndustry Env|ronmenta| R|sks andEconom|c R|sks
8es|des l|e geolec|r|ca| r|s|s suc| as exp|a|red aoove, |l |s |rperal|ve lo cors|der l|e courlry-
erv|rorrerl r|s| ard ecoror|c r|s| re|aled lo l|e ol|er We|g|led 50ol l|e r|s| laclors. larvey, C.R.
(199) exp|a|red l|al l|ere are severa| rel|odo|og|es usua||y used lor reasur|rg courlry r|s|s, arorg
ol|ers, lnsr|rur|ona| lnvesror ano lnrernar|ona| 0ounrr, R|sk Su|oe (lCR0).
lrsl|lul|ora| lrveslors are used lo reasur|rg r|s|s oased or cred|l r|s|s, surveyed lror |rlerral|ora|
oar|ers operal|rg |r a parl|cu|ar courlry. T|e r|s| sca|e |s rade lror 0 lo 100, W|ere 100 s|oWs l|e
r|r|rur cred|l r|s|. 3urveys are carr|ed oul lor eac| ol l|e courlr|es, l|e dala are l|er processed oy l|e
lrlerral|ora| lrveslor lo delerr|re |ls ral|rg. T|e ral|rg re||es greal|y or exper|erces ol l|e surveyed
oojecl |r l|e respecl|ve courlry, ever l|e rosl exper|erced surveyors W||| |ave d|llererl assessrerls
regard|rg l|e r|s| ral|rg ol a parl|cu|ar courlry. T|e ol|er rel|odo|ogy lor r|s| ral|rg ol a parl|cu|ar
courlry, rare|y l|e lrlerral|ora| Courlry R|s| 0u|de (lCR0), corducls reasurererls l|roug| rorl||y
dala co||ecl|or. lCR0 uses lour reasurererls lor r|s| ral|rg, rare|y Po||l|ca| R|s|s, Ecoror|c R|s|s,
F|rarc|a| R|s|s, ard Corpos|le R|s| Ral|rg, l|e |aller |s ca|cu|aled oased or l|e l|ree aoove rerl|ored
r|s| laclors. Eac| ol l|e r|s| laclor, suc| as Po||l|ca| R|s|, corpr|ses ol 13 r|s| laclors, Ecoror|c R|s|
ard F|rac|a| R|s| cors|sl ol ard 5 r|s| laclors respecl|ve|y (see Tao|e 1). Eac| laclor |as |ls oWr ral|rg,
l|e ||g|er l|e score, l|e |oWer l|e r|s|. T|e score lor po||l|ca| r|s|s |s oola|red lror dala ara|ys|s, ard |s
ol suojecl|ve ralure. T|e score lor ecoror|c r|s|s |s oased or oojecl|ve dala ol quarl|lal|ve ara|yses
ard l|e score lor l|rarc|a| r|s|s |s oased or a coro|ral|or ol ool| qua||lal|ve ard quarl|lal|ve dala. lCR0
calegor|zed courlry r|s|s oased or lWo ra|r corporerls, rare|y ao|||ly lo pay ard W||||rgress lo pay.
Po||l|ca| r|s|s are assoc|aled W|l| W||||rgress lo pay, l|rarc|a| ard ecoror|c r|s|s are assoc|aled W|l|
ao|||ly lo pay. T|e po|rl lor po||l|ca| r|s|s (100 po|rls) |s delerr|red lo oe grealer l|ar ool| l|rarc|a| r|s|s
ard ecoror|c r|s|s (50 po|rls).
T|e lorru|a lor ca|cu|al|rg Courlry R|s|, accord|rg lo lCR0, |s as lo||oWs
PR = $um| PR| (1)
E R = $um| ER| (2)
FR = $um| Fr| (3)
CRR = 0.5 x {PRERFRj (1)
W|ere :
PR = Po||l|ca| R|s|
ER = Ecoror|c R|s|
FR = F|rarc|a| R|s|
CRR = Corpos|le R|s| Ral|rg
As exp|a|red ear||er, l|e l|ree r|s| laclors |ave l|e|r oWr r|s| laclor cr|ler|a. Po||l|ca| r|s| corpr|ses ol 13
r|s| laclor cr|ler|a, ecoror|c r|s| ard l|rarc|a| r|s| corpr|se ol s|x ard l|ve r|s| laclor cr|ler|a
respecl|ve|y, as s|oWr |r Tao|e 1. Courlry r|s|s are lo oe |r ellecl W|er l|e corpary |s go|rg lo |rvesl |r
a cerla|r courlry. T||s paper W||| lurl|er exp|ore l|e case ol Perlar|ra, W||c| |s a ral|ora| corpary,
W|er |l |s go|rg lo |rvesl |r cerla|r Wor||rg areas W|l| d|llererl |rduslr|a| erv|rorrerl c|aracler|sl|cs.
2.4 Exp|orat|onwe|| 0r||||ng0perat|onProcess
0rce a proposa| lor exp|oral|or dr||||rg |s dec|ared as leas|o|e, l|e rexl slep |s l|e dr||||rg operal|or
process. T|e process |rvo|ves prograrr|rg lor dr||||rg as a lo||oW-up ol Eva|ual|or, Pre-corslrucl|or,
Corslrucl|or, ard 0peral|or 0r||||rg ard up lo Posl-operal|or processes, suc| as s|oWr |r F|gure Z.
Eac| Wor| slage W||| |rvo|ve cerla|r l|e|ds ol experl|se. lr l|e eva|ual|or process, lor exarp|e, a
geosc|erl|sl W||| propose a ready lor dr||||rg prospecl, l|e dr||||rg erg|reer W||| des|gr l|e dr||||rg
prograr, ard |og|sl|cs W||| oe |r c|arge ol raler|a| p|arr|rg. T|e pre-corslrucl|or slage W||| |rvo|ve
experls |r lopograp|y, |aWyers lor |ard reg|slral|or, ard puo||c re|al|ors oll|cers.
C|v|| ard rec|ar|ca| erg|reers W||| oe ergaged |r l|e corslrucl|or slage. T|e dr||||rg operal|or slage
W||| |rvo|ve var|ous l|e|ds ol experl|se url|| l|e posl-operal|or slage, ard |rdeed, l|e Wor| W||| a|so gel l|e
supporl lror aux|||ary experls |||e |r l|rarce ard |urar resources deve|oprerl. Experls |r |ea|l|,
Wor|-salely, ard erv|rorrerl prolecl|or W||| ror|lor a|| l|e acl|v|l|es re|aled lo l|ese aspecls. T|us, l|e
o|| ard gas We|| dr||||rg operal|or |s ar |rlegraled acl|v|ly ol var|ous sc|erl|l|c d|sc|p||res ard |rler-
d|sc|p||rary approac|es W||| oe |rperal|ve lor l|e lead ol l|e dr||||rg projecl lo cors|der.
T|e operal|or cosl ol l|e exp|oral|or dr||||rg |rc|udes cosls lor corducl|rg a|| l|e aoove rerl|ored
acl|v|l|es, |||e experd|lures lor surveys, ||cers|rg, |ard acqu|s|l|or, ard corslrucl|or. T|e cosls lor
dr||||rg a|so |rc|ude cosls lor raler|a|s ard lor serv|ces, ard |aler or a|so l|e posl-operal|or cosls.
Courlry r|s|s, rare|y l|e r|s| laclors ol |rduslr|a| exlerra||l|es, W||| |ave ellecls dur|rg l|e dr||||rg
operal|or slage. A dr||||rg operal|or acl|v|ly r|g|l oe de|ayed |l erv|rorrerla| r|s|s |r l|e area are rol
carelu||y corpuled oelore|ard. T|e lo||oW|rg secl|or W||| d|scuss l||s raller |r dela||.
198 199
J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g | J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g |
Tao|e 1. Courlry R|s| Faclors accord|rg lo lCR0 Ral|rg 3ysler (larvey, C.R., 199)

ICRG RATING SYSTEM
PoIiticaI, Economic and FinanciaI Risk of Country % of
Composite
Pol it ical
Econom ic expectations ver sus r eal ity 6%
Econom ic planning f ai lur es 6%
Polit ical leadership 6%
External conf lict 5%
Cor r uption in governm ent 3%
Militar y in polit ics 3%
Or ganized religion in polit ics 3%
Law and or der t radition 3%
Racial and nationalit y tensions 3%
Political ter ror ism 3%
Civil war 3%
Polit ical par ty devel opm ent 3%
Quality of bur eaucracy 3%
Total Pol itical Poi nt s 50%
Financi al
Loan def ault or unfavor able loan restr uct ur ing 5%
Delayed paym ent of suppl ier s' cr edit s 5%
Repudiat ion of contracts by governm ent 5%
Losses f r om exchange contr ols 5%
Expropriati on of private investm ent s 5%
Total Financial Point s 25%
Econom ic
nf lation 5%
Debt service as a % of expor ts of goods and ser vices 5%
nternational liquidity r at ios 3%
For eign t rade collection experi ence 3%
Curr ent account balance as % of goods and ser vices 8%
Par all el for eign exchange r ate m ark et indicator s 3%
Total Economic Poi nt s 25%
Overall Poi nt s 100%
Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project
|||. |ssues of |nvestment |nThe 00h J Exp|orat|on0r||||ngProject

w|l| l|e |rpos|l|or ol l|e uu V|gas (0|| & 0as LaW) No. 22 Year 2001, parl|cu|ar|y |r lrdores|a, l|e o||
ard gas |rduslr|es |ave oeer corl|ruous|y c|arg|rg. T|e app||cal|or ol l|e uu Dronom| 0aeran (LaW
perla|r|rg lo Loca| Area Aulorory) |ad caused |oca| area goverrrerls lo |ave rore lreedor |r
eracl|rg regu|al|ors re|aled lo |rcreas|rg |oca| area |rcore. T|e ol|er ellecl |s rap|d deve|oprerl ol
|oca| areas as We|| as |rcreased sers|l|v|ly ol corrur|l|es espec|a||y loWards erv|rorrerla| |rpacls ol
|rduslr|es, suc| as l|e o|| ard gas |rduslry, ard l||s deve|oprerl |as oecore a spec|a| r|s| ol corcerr
lo |rveslrerl. T|e |rpacls |ad |rdeed allecled PT. PERTAVlNA 00l J88, operal|rg |r l|e rosl
derse|y popu|aled area ol lrdores|a. Cors|der|rg l|e cord|l|or, |rveslrerls s|ou|d oe rore se|ecl|ve
ard carelu||y p|arred. F|gure 8 preserls a s|rp|e |||uslral|or ol l|e |ssues.
200 201
J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g | J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g |

EVALUASI
{GEOLOGI,
GEOFISIKA,RESERVOIR,
DRILLING DAN EKON)
PRA
KONSTRUKSI
KONSTRUKSI
1. Survey Topografi
- Pengukuran
koordinat titik
lokasi
{definitive)
- Pemetaan lokasi
- Pemetaan jalan
masuk
2. Rancang Bangun
3. Perijinan
4. Pembebasan Lahan
5. Sosialisasi
1. Clearing
2. Pemadatan tanah
3. Membangun Sarana
:
- Jalan masuk
- Cellar
- Pondasi
- Balong {Pit)
- Water Disposal
- Koagulasi
- Bak Penyaring
- Log Yard
- Camp Site
- Gudang Handak
- Flare Pit
- Muster point
- Sanitasi
- Portal & Gardu
Jaga
- Pemagaran lokasi
- Pemasangan
rambuJtanda
1. Mobilisasi
{Peralatan,
Material, Personil)
2. Drilling
3. Logging
4. Casing
5. Cementing
6. Testing
OPERASI
BOR
PASCA
OPERASI
1. Perataan
permukaan tanah
{penutupan
balong-balong)
2. Penanaman pohon
3. Pemasangan
rambuJtanda
Aspek K3LL
(Kesehatan, Keselamatan
Kerja dan Lindungan
Lingkungan)
1. Konsep Geologi
- Petroleum System
- Objektif &
Kedalaman
- Sumberdaya
- Keekonomian
2. Program Pemboran
- Bit
- Bottom Hole Assy
- Casing design
- Mud Properties
- Mud Chemical
- Cementing
- Testing
- Bottom Hole
Survey
- Logging
3. Rig {Type &
Kapasitas)
4. Material
5. Organisasi Bor
EVALUATION
{GEOLOGY,
GEOPHYSICS,RESERVOIRS,
DRILLING DAN EKONOMY)
PRE
CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTION
1. Topografical Survey
- Measurement of
Location point
coordinates
{definitive)
- Mapping of location
- Mapping of Access
road
2. Construction Design
3. Licensing
4. Land Acquisition
5. Socialization
1. Clearing
2. Soil Compacting
3. Construction of
Facilities : :
- Access road
- Cellar
- Fuondation
- Pits
- Water Disposal
- Coagulation
- Filtering basins
- Log Yard
- Camp Site
- Handak Storage
- Flare Pits
- Muster point
- Sanitations
- Portals & Guard
Posts
- Fencing of location
- Sign posting
1. Mobilization
{Equipment,material
Personnel)
2. Drilling
3. Logging
4. Casing
5. Cementing
6. Testing
DRILLING
OPERATION
POST
OPERATION
1. Soul surface
levelling
{pit covering)
2. Tree planting
3. Sign posting
Aspect of health
Work safety,and
environment protection
1. Geology Concept i
- Petroleum System
- Objektif &
Kedalaman
- Sumberdaya
- Keekonomian
2. Drilling Program
- Bit
- Bottom Hole Assy
- Casing design
- Mud Properties
- Mud Chemical
- Cementing
- Testing
- Bottom Hole
Survey
- Logging
3. Rig {Type &
Kapasitas)
4. Material
5. Drilling Organization
EVALUASI
{GEOLOGI,
GEOFISIKA,RESERVOIR,
DRILLING DAN EKON)
PRA
KONSTRUKSI
KONSTRUKSI
1. Survey Topografi
- Pengukuran
koordinat titik
lokasi
{definitive)
- Pemetaan lokasi
- Pemetaan jalan
masuk
2. Rancang Bangun
3. Perijinan
4. Pembebasan Lahan
EVALUASI
{GEOLOGI,
GEOFISIKA,RESERVOIR,
DRILLING DAN EKON)
PRA
KONSTRUKSI
KONSTRUKSI
1. Survey Topografi
- Pengukuran
koordinat titik
lokasi
{definitive)
- Pemetaan lokasi
- Pemetaan jalan
masuk
2. Rancang Bangun
3. Perijinan
4. Pembebasan Lahan
5. Sosialisasi
1. Clearing
2. Pemadatan tanah
3. Membangun Sarana
:
- Jalan masuk
- Cellar
- Pondasi
- Balong {Pit)
- Water Disposal
- Koagulasi
- Bak Penyaring
- Log Yard
- Camp Site
- Gudang Handak
- Flare Pit
- Muster point
- Sanitasi
- Portal & Gardu
Jaga
- Pemagaran lokasi
- Pemasangan
rambuJtanda
1. Mobilisasi
{Peralatan,
Material, Personil)
2. Drilling
3. Logging
4. Casing
5. Cementing
6. Testing
OPERASI
BOR
PASCA
OPERASI
1. Perataan
permukaan tanah
{penutupan
balong-balong)
2. Penanaman pohon
3. Pemasangan
rambuJtanda
Aspek K3LL
(Kesehatan, Keselamatan
Kerja dan Lindungan
Lingkungan)
1. Konsep Geologi
- Petroleum System
- Objektif &
Kedalaman
- Sumberdaya
- Keekonomian
2. Program Pemboran
- Bit
- Bottom Hole Assy
- Casing design
- Mud Properties
- Mud Chemical
- Cementing
- Testing
- Bottom Hole
Survey
- Logging
3. Rig {Type &
Kapasitas)
4. Material
5. Organisasi Bor
5. Sosialisasi
1. Clearing
2. Pemadatan tanah
3. Membangun Sarana
:
- Jalan masuk
- Cellar
- Pondasi
- Balong {Pit)
- Water Disposal
- Koagulasi
- Bak Penyaring
- Log Yard
- Camp Site
- Gudang Handak
- Flare Pit
- Muster point
- Sanitasi
- Portal & Gardu
Jaga
- Pemagaran lokasi
- Pemasangan
rambuJtanda
1. Mobilisasi
{Peralatan,
Material, Personil)
2. Drilling
3. Logging
4. Casing
5. Cementing
6. Testing
OPERASI
BOR
PASCA
OPERASI
1. Perataan
permukaan tanah
{penutupan
balong-balong)
2. Penanaman pohon
3. Pemasangan
rambuJtanda
Aspek K3LL
(Kesehatan, Keselamatan
Kerja dan Lindungan
Lingkungan)
1. Konsep Geologi
- Petroleum System
- Objektif &
Kedalaman
- Sumberdaya
- Keekonomian
2. Program Pemboran
- Bit
- Bottom Hole Assy
- Casing design
- Mud Properties
- Mud Chemical
- Cementing
- Testing
- Bottom Hole
Survey
- Logging
3. Rig {Type &
Kapasitas)
4. Material
5. Organisasi Bor
EVALUATION
{GEOLOGY,
GEOPHYSICS,RESERVOIRS,
DRILLING DAN EKONOMY)
PRE
CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTION
1. Topografical Survey
- Measurement of
Location point
coordinates
{definitive)
- Mapping of location
- Mapping of Access
road
2. Construction Design
3. Licensing
4. Land Acquisition
5. Socialization
1. Clearing
2. Soil Compacting
3. Construction of
Facilities : :
- Access road
- Cellar
- Fuondation
- Pits
- Water Disposal
- Coagulation
- Filtering basins
- Log Yard
- Camp Site
- Handak Storage
- Flare Pits
- Muster point
- Sanitations
- Portals & Guard
Posts
- Fencing of location
-
EVALUATION
{GEOLOGY,
GEOPHYSICS,RESERVOIRS,
DRILLING DAN EKONOMY)
PRE
CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTION
1. Topografical Survey
- Measurement of
Location point
coordinates
{definitive)
- Mapping of location
- Mapping of Access
road
2. Construction Design
3. Licensing
4. Land Acquisition
5. Socialization
1. Clearing
2. Soil Compacting
3. Construction of
Facilities : :
- Access road
- Cellar
- Fuondation
- Pits
- Water Disposal
- Coagulation
- Filtering basins
- Log Yard
- Camp Site
- Handak Storage
- Flare Pits
- Muster point
- Sanitations
- Portals & Guard
Posts
- Fencing of location
- Sign posting
1. Mobilization
{Equipment,material
Personnel)
2. Drilling
3. Logging
4. Casing
5. Cementing
6. Testing
DRILLING
OPERATION
POST
OPERATION
1. Soul surface
levelling
{pit covering)
2. Tree planting
3. Sign posting
Aspect of health
Work safety,and
environment protection
1. Geology Concept i
- Petroleum System
- Objektif &
Kedalaman
- Sumberdaya
- Keekonomian
2. Drilling Program
- Bit
- Bottom Hole Assy
- Casing design
- Mud Properties
- Mud Chemical
- Cementing
- Testing
- Bottom Hole
Survey
- Logging
3. Rig {Type &
Kapasitas)
4. Material
5. Drilling Organization
F|gure Z. F|oW ol Acl|v|l|es ol Exp|oral|or 0r||||rg 0peral|or
F|gure 8. 0ul||re ol lssues

GENERAL
ISSUES

SPECIAL
ISSUES

PROBLEM
SOLVING

UU Migas No.22
Year 2001

Effects

Pertamina became a PT

(Limited Company)

Limited

Investment

PT. Pertamina reporing

to BP Migas

WorId OiI Price

FIuctuation

Lack of undepth

economic studies at ex

DOH JBB


AnaIysis of

investment

portofoIio,incIuding

economicaI risks




Effects

Speedy exploration and

Production of new oil

resources

LocaI Area

Autonomy Law
Effects
Local area government could
Administer more freely
Communities become more
criticizing
AnaIysis of
egionaI/IocaI area
risks
PreveiIing regionaI/
Or IocaI area risks
to investing
RESULTS
Optimezed
Investment
PortofoIio
With
Considerations
To IocaI area
risks
Technical Evaluation
(detailed evaluation on Probability of
Success/Exploration Risks, very clear
criteria
Technical Evaluation
(detailed evaluation on Probability of
Success/Exploration Risks, very clear
criteria
Economic Evaluation
(less detailed, only an estimation of reserve
volume, CU1 OFF criteria not specified
Economic Evaluation
(less detailed, only an estimation of reserve
volume, CU1 OFF criteria not specified
Proposed prospects Proposed prospects
Ready for drilling
prospects and Ranking
Ready for drilling
prospects and Ranking
Exp|oral|or acl|v|l|es al 00l J88, W||c| |s roW raraged oy l|e Exp|oral|or Furcl|or, slrelc| over
areas ol a|| l|e reg|ors ard c|l|es |r l|e rorl|err parl ol wesl Java lo l|e rorl|err parl ol Cerlra| Java,
lror 8e|as| |r wesl Java lo Kaoupaler 8alarg |r Cerlra| Java. Cors|der|rg l|e greal slrelc| ol l|e
Wor||rg area ol PTPerlar|ra 00l J88, l|e corpary |s lac|rg urexp|ored areas or zores W|l| d|llererl
r|s| |eve|s, deperd|rg or c|aracler|sl|cs ol l|e |oca| goverrrerls, corrur|l|es, ard erv|rorrerls.
VearW|||e, l|e corpary's derard |s lo oola|r rax|rur rale ol relurr ard susla|rao|||ly ol l|e o|| ard
gas ous|ress al 00l J88 l|roug| l|e d|scovery ol a reW, correrc|a||y v|ao|e o|| ard gas reserve lo
rep|ace l|e ear||er o|| ard gas reserve a|ready |r producl|or. T|e |ssues are, arorg ol|ers:
a. Preva|||ng r|sk laorors oue ro |ooa| area oono|r|on
0ue lo l|e |rpos|l|or ol l|e LaW perla|r|rg lo Loca| Area Aulorory, |oca| area goverrrerls |ave
rore lreedor lo corlro| |rveslrerls |r l|e|r areas. Al preserl, l|e se|ecl|or ol areas lor exp|oral|or
dr||||rg W||| greal|y deperd or deve|oprerls |r l|e area, cord|l|or ol l|e peop|e, as We|| as l|e |oca|
area goverrrerl. T|e dr||||rg corducled l||s year |r l|e area ol 8e|as| W||| |ave d|llererl rale ol r|s|s
W|er carr|ed oul severa| years |aler.
o. laok ol |n-oeprn eoonom|o sruo|es
3o lar, l|e 00l J88 Exp|oral|or Furcl|or |ad rol yel corducled ar |r-depl| ecoror|c eva|ual|or
or cerla|r rallers re|aled lo l|e projecl, lor exarp|e, rallers re|aled lo r|s| laclors, rol or|y suo-
surlace r|s|s, |||e |rduslr|a| erv|rorrerla| r|s|s ard ecoror|c r|s|s. T|e eva|ual|or process lor l|e
proposed 00l J88 exp|oral|or dr||||rg |s |||uslraled |r F|gure 9.
c. /va||ao|||r, ol |nvesrmenr lunos
T|e c|arge ol Perlar|ra's slalus lo oecore a corporal|or |ad rade every sperd|rg ol l|e
|rveslrerl oudgel lo lo||oW slardard ous|ress pr|rc|p|es. T|us, eac| |rveslrerl lor dr||||rg s|ou|d
oe oased, rol or|y or lec|r|ca| reasors, oul a|so or ava||ao|e lurd|rg ard l|erelore, |rveslrerl
dr||||rg r|g|l oe oased or '||r|led oudgel reg|or' W|ere every lurcl|or W||| |ave a oudgel ||r|l lor
|rveslrerl. T|e 00l J88 Exp|oral|or Furcl|or s|ou|d oe ao|e lo produce a rar||rg ol dr||||rg
|rveslrerl acl|v|l|es oased or l|e ||r|led oudgel ava||ao|e.

As exp|a|red ear||er, l|e aoove rerl|ored gerera| |ssues (0|| ard 0as LaW No. 22 year 2001, Wor|d o||
pr|ce l|uclual|ors, LaW perla|r|rg lo Loca| Area Aulorory) |ave greal ellecls ard al l|e sare l|re,
creale proo|ers lor l|e Perlar|ra 00l J88 Exp|oral|or Furcl|or |r parl|cu|ar. T|e proo|ers are ra|r|y
re|aled lo l|ree |ssues, rare|y, ||m|reo |nvesrmenr lunos, |aok ol |n-oeprn eoonom|o sruo|es, ard l|e
preva|||ng reg|on/|ooa| area r|sks lor |nvesrmenr. T|e l|rsl ard secord proo|er W||| oe approac|ed us|rg
porllo||o ara|yses ard l|e l||rd proo|er W||| oe approac|ed us|rg l|e reg|on/area r|sk ana|,s|s. T|e
expecled resu|l lror l|ese ara|yses W||| oe ar opr|m|zeo |nvesrmenr porrlo||o u|rn rne |no|us|on ol
reg|on/area r|sks.
F|gure 9. Eva|ual|or Process ol Proposed 0r||||rg al 00l J88 Exp|oral|or
Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project
lr l||s case sludy, l|e approac| la|er lor proo|er so|v|rg |s l|roug| la||rg sever proposed exp|oral|or
We||s, eac| |ocaled |r d|llererl areas ard W|l| d|llererl reserve vo|ures, as We|| as d|llererl p|arred
|ocal|ors, as s|oWr |r Tao|e 2.
|V. Prob|em8o|v|ng
4.1 Hethodo|og|es for Prob|em8o|v|ng
TWo rel|ods are used as ar approac| lor Porlolo||o Ara|yses, 00F/na|,s|s ard 0eo|s|on Tree T|m|ng
Dpr|on (W|l| l|e |rc|us|or ol Ecoror|c R|s| ard Reg|or R|s| Faclors). VearW|||e, ara|ys|s ol
Reg|on//rea R|sks |s approac|ed us|rg a coro|ral|or ol rod|l|ed lrsl|lul|ora| lrveslor rel|od ard
s|rp||l|ed lCR0. T|e l|ra| resu|l ol l||s proo|er so|v|rg rel|odo|ogy |s l|e ao|||ly lo rar| l|e prospecls
ol projecls us|rg 0CFAr|ys|s ard T|r|rg 0pl|or Ara|ys|s ard lo corpare l|e resu|ls ol ool| ara|yses.
F|gure 10 preserls a l|oW d|agrar lor proo|er so|v|rg.
T|e sleps lor proo|er so|v|rg |r accordarce W|l| l|e l|oW c|arl |s as lo||oWs:
1. 3e|ecl|or ol prospecl|ve exp|oral|or projecls lor |rveslrerls |r l|e l|rsl year (|r l||s case, sever
dr||||rg prospecls are se|ecled as case slud|es, suc| as ||sled |r Tao|e 2).
2. Ca|cu|al|or ol esl|raled vo|ure ol o|| ard gas resources lror eac| ol l|e se|ecled prospecls (|r l||s
case l|e vo|ure ol resources |ave a|ready oeer reasured oy l|e 00l J88 Exp|oral|or Furcl|or).
3. 0elerr|ral|or ol l|e ecoror|c |eve| ol l|e erl|re Projecl |r gerera|, l|e ra|r oulpuls W||| oe sore
3lardard ecoror|c pararelers suc| as NPv, lRR, Pl, elc. T|e rel|od lor reasur|rg W||| oe |r
accordarce lo l|e slardard lorrals a|ready ava||ao|e al l|e 00l J88 Exp|oral|or Furcl|or.
1. Ca|cu|al|or ol l|e Expecled NPvdr, W||c| |s l|e oulpul ol 0pl|or l, us|rg l|e 0ec|s|r Tree Ar|ys|s.
T|e |rpul dala corpr|ses ol 12, 1, ard 180|scourl Rale (dr), eac| W|l| a prooao|||ly ol 0.25,
0.5 ard 0.25 respecl|ve|y, oased or assurpl|ors. For Pl (Prol|lao|||ly lrdex) < 1.5, l|e assurpl|or
W||| oe l|al Exp|oral|or W||| rol ra|e ary |rveslrerls.
5. Ca|cu|al|or ol Expecled NPvr|3, W||c| |s l|e oulpul ol 0pl|or 2, us|rg l|e 0ec|s|r Tree Ar|ys|s.
T|e |rpul dala |s l|e Rl3 lrdex, W||c| |s a ru|l|p||cal|or ol l|e Reg|or ard Erv|rorrerl Prooao|||ly
Average (REPA) lrdex ard l|e lrveslrerl lrdex lor a l|re per|od ol l|ree years |r l|e Projecl area.
. Ca|cu|al|or ol eac| rar|ed |rveslrerl us|rg l|e |rveslrerl lurds ||r|led lo u30 100 r||||or us|rg
l|e 0CF3lardard rel|od. lr l||s case, Pl |s used, W|ereas oulpuls ol 0pl|or 1 ard 0pl|or 2 W||| use
Zero-0re Prograrr|rg lor l|e 0ec|s|r Tree Ar|ys|s.
Z. Porllo||o Ar||s|s a|ler us|rg ool| rel|ods.
8. Recorrerdal|ors lor p|arr|rg.
202 203
J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g | J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g |

Oil
(NNBO)
Gas
(BCFG)
1 SGN Cikarang 0 30
2 RKN Karawang Tengah 18 0
3 BRK !ndramayu Timur 3S 9
4 PGT Bekasi Utara Timur 7S 8+
5 PCC !ndramayu Selatan 0 1+0
6 LNG Karawang Barat 22 0
7 TDC Karawang Utara 31 0
Wells
Location
Reserves
NO
Tao|e 2. 3ever Exp|oral|or 0r||||rg Projecls l|al are go|rg lo oe ara|yzed

RESOURCES
CALCULATION
{ 7 Prospect )
RESOURCES
CALCULATION
{ 7 Prospect )
ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
Standard nvestment Analysis
DCF (NPV, RR, P, etc)
Option 1
Economic Analysis Dec. Tree
(Using Disc Rate Probablitliy)
New nvestment
Parameter
(ENPVdr)
Option 2
REPA Timing Option
Analysis Dec. Tree
(Using R3 ndex)
REPA and R3
(2 x REPA) Ranking
for 3 years
Discount Rate Probability
Region & Environment
Probability
Average (REPA)
New nvestment
Parameter
(ENPVri3)
AnaIyzing
(with
Zero-One
Programming)
MaximumInvestation
400 MUSD
Prospect
Rangking
With
Reliable
!mvestment
Parameter
DCF 8
Timing Option
P=>1.5 NO
PERENCANAAN &
REKOMENDASI
nvestment ndex
( 2)
RESOURCES
CALCULATION
{ 7 Prospect )
RESOURCES
CALCULATION
{ 7 Prospect )
ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
Standard nvestment Analysis
DCF (NPV, RR, P, etc)
Option 1
Economic Analysis Dec. Tree
(Using Disc Rate Probablitliy)
New nvestment
Parameter
(ENPVdr)
Option 2
REPA Timing Option
Analysis Dec. Tree
(Using R3 ndex)
REPA and R3
(2 x REPA) Ranking
for 3 years
Discount Rate Probability
Region & Environment
Probability
Average (REPA)
New nvestment
Parameter
(ENPVri3)
AnaIyzing
(with
Zero-One
Programming)
MaximumInvestation
400 MUSD
Prospect
Rangking
With
Reliable
!mvestment
Parameter
DCF 8
Timing Option
P=>1.5 NO
PERENCANAAN &
REKOMENDASI
nvestment ndex
( 2)
F|gure 10. F|oW c|arl lor Proo|er 3o|v|rg
Data and economic caIcuIatation resuIts of reserves at seven DOH JBB expIoration weIIs Reseves
Cadangan SGN RKM BRK PGT PCC LNG TDC
Oil Reserves (NNBO) 0 18 3+.8 7S 0 22.1 30.9
Gas Reserves (BCFG) 30 0 0 8+ 1+0 0 0
Operational Life 12 1+ 19 1+ 1S 37 13
Ave. Production Oil (BOPD) 0 700 2300 1S00 0 1200 2S00
Ave. Production Gas (NCFD) 7000 0 0 10000 16000 0 0
Data and economic caIcuIatation resuIts of seven DOH JBB expIoration weIIs economic appraisaI
Keekonomian SGN RKM BRK PGT PCC LNG TDC
Oil Price (US $fbbl) 3S 3S 3S 3S 3S 3S 3S
Gas Price Perbarel (USfNCF) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Avg. Oil Cost (US$fbbl) +.S +.S +.S +.S +.S +.S +.S
Avg.Gas Cost (US$fNCF) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
!nvestment (NNUS$) 9,2S0.0 61,6S0.0 83,600.0 227,62S.0 ++,900.0 30,900.0 +S,900.0
NPv (US$) @ 16 3,373.7 21,360.8 S1,+26.7 1S1,672.6 12,829.+ 3S,938.6 77,88+.3
!RR() 33.98 31.97 +0.77 71.36 3+.3S 60.38 91.2
NPvf! 0.36 0.3S 0.62 0.67 0.29 1.16 1.70
P! 1.SS 1.61 2.06 2.S 1.S+ 2.93 3.82
POT S.27 6.3+ 6.12 S.2S 6.+9 +.93 +.2+
Sensitivitas NPv thd Disc. Rate
12 S,0S3.+ 3+,01+.1 77,000.9 210,837.9 19,928.1 S1,+20.3 102,878.+
P! pd 12 1.8 1.97 2.S8 3.09 1.83 3.77 +.73
16 3,373.7 21,360.8 S1,+26.7 1S1,672.6 12,829.+ 3S,938.6 77,88+.3
P! pd 16 1.SS 1.61 2.06 2.S0 1.S+ 2.93 3.82
18 2,720.8 16,6S+.6 +1,90+.8 129,121.2 10,180.0 30,238.8 68,02+.1
P! pd 18 1.++ 1.+7 1.86 2.28 1.+3 2.63 3.+6
Data and economic caIcuIatation resuIts of reserves at seven DOH JBB expIoration weIIs Reseves
Cadangan SGN RKM BRK PGT PCC LNG TDC
Oil Reserves (NNBO) 0 18 3+.8 7S 0 22.1 30.9
Gas Reserves (BCFG) 30 0 0 8+ 1+0 0 0
Operational Life 12 1+ 19 1+ 1S 37 13
Ave. Production Oil (BOPD) 0 700 2300 1S00 0 1200 2S00
Ave. Production Gas (NCFD) 7000 0 0 10000 16000 0 0
Data and economic caIcuIatation resuIts of seven DOH JBB expIoration weIIs economic appraisaI
Keekonomian SGN RKM BRK PGT PCC LNG TDC
Oil Price (US $fbbl) 3S 3S 3S 3S 3S 3S 3S
Gas Price Perbarel (USfNCF) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Avg. Oil Cost (US$fbbl) +.S +.S +.S +.S +.S +.S +.S
Avg.Gas Cost (US$fNCF) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
!nvestment (NNUS$) 9,2S0.0 61,6S0.0 83,600.0 227,62S.0 ++,900.0 30,900.0 +S,900.0
NPv (US$) @ 16 3,373.7 21,360.8 S1,+26.7 1S1,672.6 12,829.+ 3S,938.6 77,88+.3
!RR() 33.98 31.97 +0.77 71.36 3+.3S 60.38 91.2
NPvf! 0.36 0.3S 0.62 0.67 0.29 1.16 1.70
P! 1.SS 1.61 2.06 2.S 1.S+ 2.93 3.82
POT S.27 6.3+ 6.12 S.2S 6.+9 +.93 +.2+
Sensitivitas NPv thd Disc. Rate
12 S,0S3.+ 3+,01+.1 77,000.9 210,837.9 19,928.1 S1,+20.3
Data and economic caIcuIatation resuIts of reserves at seven DOH JBB expIoration weIIs Reseves
Cadangan SGN RKM BRK PGT PCC LNG TDC
Oil Reserves (NNBO) 0 18 3+.8 7S 0 22.1 30.9
Gas Reserves (BCFG) 30 0 0 8+ 1+0 0 0
Operational Life 12 1+ 19 1+ 1S 37 13
Ave. Production Oil (BOPD) 0 700 2300 1S00 0 1200 2S00
Ave. Production Gas (NCFD) 7000 0 0 10000 16000 0 0
Data and economic caIcuIatation resuIts of seven DOH JBB expIoration weIIs economic appraisaI
Keekonomian SGN RKM BRK PGT PCC LNG TDC
Oil Price (US $fbbl) 3S 3S 3S 3S 3S 3S 3S
Gas Price Perbarel (USfNCF) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Avg. Oil Cost (US$fbbl) +.S +.S +.S +.S +.S +.S +.S
Avg.Gas Cost (US$fNCF) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
!nvestment (NNUS$) 9,2S0.0 61,6S0.0 83,600.0 227,62S.0 ++,900.0 30,900.0 +S,900.0
NPv (US$) @ 16 3,373.7 21,360.8 S1,+26.7 1S1,672.6 12,829.+ 3S,938.6 77,88+.3
!RR() 33.98 31.97 +0.77 71.36 3+.3S 60.38 91.2
NPvf! 0.36 0.3S 0.62 0.67 0.29 1.16 1.70
P! 1.SS 1.61 2.06 2.S 1.S+ 2.93 3.82
POT S.27 6.3+ 6.12 S.2S 6.+9 +.93 +.2+
Sensitivitas NPv thd Disc. Rate
12 S,0S3.+ 3+,01+.1 77,000.9 210,837.9 19,928.1 S1,+20.3 102,878.+
P! pd 12 1.8 1.97 2.S8 3.09 1.83 3.77 +.73
16 3,373.7 21,360.8 S1,+26.7 1S1,672.6 12,829.+ 3S,938.6 77,88+.3
P! pd 16 1.SS 1.61 2.06 2.S0 1.S+ 2.93 3.82
18 2,720.8 16,6S+.6 +1,90+.8 129,121.2 10,180.0 30,238.8 68,02+.1
P! pd 18 1.++ 1.+7 1.86 2.28 1.+3 2.63 3.+6
4.2 Econom|c Eva|uat|onof Projects
lr l||s arl|c|e, l|e ecoror|c laclors lor eva|ual|or ol l|e sever se|ecled projecls (suc| as ||sled |r Tao|e
2) are oas|c |rveslrerl laclors, suc| as NPv, lRR, P0Tard Pl, reasured ard eva|ualed us|rg l|e usua|
spreads|eel ol l|e J88 Exp|oral|or Furcl|or. Tao|e 3 preserls l|e resu|ls ol l|e ecoror|c ca|cu|al|or ol
l|e sever reserve We||s.
Tao|e 3. 0ala ard Ecoror|c Ca|cu|al|or Resu|ls ol Reserves al 3ever Exp|oral|or we||s
Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project
4.3 Eva|uat|onof |nvestment Portfo||o
TWo approac|es are used lor eva|ual|rg |rveslrerl porllo||o ol l|e sever exp|oral|or We||s re|aled lo l|e
aoove rerl|ored |ssues, rare|y 00F/na|,s|s ard 0eo|s|on Tree T|m|ng Dpr|on /na|,s|s.
4.3.1 06FAna|ys|s
T|e dyrar|ca||y occurr|rg c|arges are allecl|rg a|| dec|s|ors, se|ecl|ors, ard rel|odo|og|es or
procedures |r o|| ard gas corpar|es, suc| as l|e case W|l| PT PERTAVlNA (PER3ER0) 00l J88.
T|e dyrar|c c|arges |ave ercouraged l|e raragers or dec|s|or ra|ers lo oe rore l|ex|o|e |r
ooserv|rg ard appra|s|rg a|| l|e ava||ao|e opporlur|l|es ard opl|ors corpre|ers|ve|y. 0re ol l|e
adjusled rel|odo|og|es |s projecl ara|ys|s ard ca|cu|al|or as We|| as producl|or ol porllo||os.
Today's lrequerl|y used rel|odo|ogy |s l|e d|scourl cas| l|oW (0CF) rel|od. T||s rel|od appears lo
oe |ess dyrar|c ard rol adequale|y l|ex|o|e lor oe|rg adjusled lo l|e |rcreas|rg|y dyrar|c c|arges.
3ore researc|, suc| as oroug|l lorWard oy 8a||ey, w. el a|. (2001), corl|rred severa| ||r|lal|ors ol l|e
0CFrel|od:
1. T|e 0CFrel|od |s a slal|c rel|od as |l assures l|al a cerla|r p|arred projecl |s 'r|g|d' ard cou|d rol
oe c|arged so l|al l|e raragererl oecores pass|ve ard lo||oWs l|e or|g|ra| p|ar W|l|oul pay|rg
allerl|or lo c|arges ol s|lual|ors.
2. T|e 0CF rel|od assures r|g|d pred|cl|ors ard delerr|ral|ors. lr pracl|ce |oWever, |l |s oller |ard
lo esl|rale cas|-l|oWs ard 0CFoller g|ve loo ||g| or loo |oW va|ual|ors or a projecl.
3. A|rosl a|| 0CF ara|yses |ave oeer us|rg wACC (we|g|l Average Cosl ol Cap|la|) d|scourl laclor.
8es|des wACC, severa| corpar|es use sore '|urd|e rale' W||c| r|g|l rol represerl aclua| l|e r|s|s
l|al are |r|ererl |r projecls.
Jo|r 8r|dge (1991) rerl|ored l|al |r l|e 0CF ara|ys|s, l|e pararelers usua||y used are NPv, lRR ard
Pl. Rar||rg cou|d oe ac||eved l|roug| pull|rg |r l|e r|g|l order l|e ||g|esl scores ol eac| ol l|e
respecl|ve pararelers. 3e|ecl|or ol |rveslrerl |s oased or l|e ||g|esl rar|. Neverl|e|ess, l||s Way
cou|d or|y oe ellecl|ve W|er |l dea|s W|l| s|rg|e pararelers. w|er rore l|ar ore parareler |s
ooserved, rar||rg cou|d sl||| oe oola|red l|roug| l|e use ol l|e lnoremenra| /na|,s|s approac|
(Arseg|arlo, 2005). lr l||s case, l|e 0CFAra|ys|s uses l|e s|rg|e approac|, rare|y Pl.
4.3.2 Rea| 0pt|on-0ec|s|onTree of T|m|ng0pt|on
A|rosl every projecl |s corducled W|l||r a cerla|r per|od ol l|re. C|arges ol s|lual|ors Wou|d poss|o|y
prov|de sore opl|ors or opporlur|l|es W||c| r|g|l la|e p|ace W|l||r l|e l|re per|od W|er l|e projecl |s
carr|ed oul.
Rea| opl|ors, a|so relerred as rarager|a| opl|ors or slraleg|c opl|ors (8r|g|ar & Er|ardl, 2002) cou|d
oe del|red as opporlur|l|es lo dea| W|l| c|arges ol s|lual|ors so l|al l|e raragers Wou|d |ave sore
opl|ors (as r|g|ls, ard rol as dul|es) lo corlro| l|e rurr|rg ol a projecl lo gel oeller resu|ls. lr l|e
eva|ual|or ol a projecl or rea| assels (p|ys|ca| assels), l|e rea| opl|ors rel|od |s used, ard as |rp||ed oy
|ls rare, l|e rel|od uses l|e We||-eslao||s|ed opl|ors l|eory prov|s|ors (C||ro|o ard C||ro|o, 2001).
lr gerera|, l|e eva|ual|or ol a projecl as We|| as a ous|ress opporlur|ly, us|rg 0CFor Rea| 0pl|or, W||| oe
oased or cosl-oerel|l ara|ys|s. T|e d|llererce |ere ||es or rallers ol r|s| |ard||rg (L|ra & 3us||c|,
2002). 0re ol l|e ra|r corporerls |r l|e projecl eva|ual|or (us|rg l|e 0CF rel|od) |s l|e Nel Preserl
va|ue (NPv). 0|lrar, L.J. (2003:11) d|llererl|aled l|e NPv oola|red lror 0CF ca|cu|al|or W|l| l|e
NPv oola|red lror add|rg l|e va|ue ol rea| opl|ors lo l|e lrad|l|ora| NPv, suc| as s|oWr |r l|e lo||oW|rg
equal|or:
hPvsrrareg|o =hPv rrao|r|ona| va|ue ol rea| opr|ons (5)
T|ere are lour |rporlarl ||rds ol rea| opl|ors lor |rveslrerl, rare|y l|r|rg opl|or, groWl| opl|or,
aoardorrerl opl|or, ard l|ex|o|||ly opl|or (0|lrar, L.J., 2003:115, 8r|g|ar & E|r|ardl, 2002:59-59Z).
lrveslrerl T|r|rg 0pl|ors are reasurao|e us|rg l|ve d|llererl approac|es, rare|y 0CF Ara|ys|s
lgror|rg l|e T|r|rg 0pl|or, 0CF W|l| a 0ua||lal|ve Cors|deral|or ol T|e T|r|rg 0pl|or, 0ec|s|or Tree
Ara|ys|s ol T|e T|r|rg 0pl|or, va|u|rg l|e T|r|rg 0pl|or W|l| l|e 8|ac|-3c|o|es Vode|, ard F|rarc|a|
Erg|reer|rg
T|e |ssues |r l||s case |s l|e poss|o|e c|arges ol d|scourl rales ard c|arges ol goverrrerl po||c|es as
We|| as sers|l|v|ly ol corrur|l|es |r l|e dr||||rg |ocal|or surrourd|rgs, represerled oy l|e REPA(Reg|or
Erv|rorrerl Prooao|||lyAverage) lrdex. lr l||s case, l|e REPAlrdex |s des|gred lor l|ree years, l|us,
F|gure 11. F|oW C|arl 0ec|s|or Tree ol T|r|rg 0pl|or Ara|ys|s
201 205
J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g | J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g |
Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project
REPA resu|ls |rd|caled l|al |rveslrerl r|s|s are d|llererl lror ore area lo l|e ol|er area dur|rg l|e
l|ree success|ve years, as s|oWr |r l|e sp|der d|agrar (F|gure 13). T|e d|agrar c|ear|y s|oWs l|al l|e
PCC ard 8RK We||s |ave ar average REPAlrdex va|ue ol over 0.Z5 |r l|ree years, |rd|cal|rg l|al l|e
reg|or |s sl||| sale lor |rveslrerls lror year 1 url|| year 3. T|e REPA lrdexes lor l|e P0T, RKV, ard
30N We||s decrease |r year 2 ard year 3. T|e 30N, RKV, ard P0T |ave ever s|oWr a REPAlrdex lo
reac| 0.5 aller year 3, rear|rg l|al l|e areas |ave a groW|rg r|s| lor |rveslrerls. VearW|||e, l|e LN0
We|| |s s|oW|rg ar |rcrease REPA |r year 2 W|er corpared lo l|e l|rsl year. T||s r|g|l oe due lo l|e
assurpl|or l|al |r l|e ear|y year l|ere Were sore rejecl|ors lror l|e |oca| corrur|ly, |oWever, W|er
|rveslrerl Was poslpored url|| l|e secord year, l|e corrur|ly r|g|l derard lor a l|e projecl lo speed
up, l|us, |rcreas|rg l|e REPAlrdex.
l|e 0ec|s|or Tree Ara|ys|s ol T|e T|r|rg 0pl|or W||| oe app||ed, us|rg l|e approac| as |||uslraled |r l|e
l|oWc|arl (F|gure 11). T|e sare W||| oe dore lor l|e 2rd ard 3rd year, ard l|e oesl ol l|e l|ree years W|||
oe c|oser.
lrveslrerl T|r|rg 0pl|or |s l|e corverl|ora| NPv ara|ys|s W||c| |rp||c|l|y assures l|e projecls l|al
are lo oe accepled or rejecled, |rp||cal|rg l|al l|e projecls W||| oe or rol oe la|er lor l|e rorerl. lr
pracl|ce |oWever, l|e corpar|es sorel|res |ave a l||rd opl|or, rare|y lo poslpore l|e projecl url||
sore |aler l|re W|er rore |rlorral|or |s ava||ao|e. w|l| l||s opl|or, cerla|r projecls cou|d draral|ca||y
|rl|uerce l|e esl|ral|or ol prooao|||l|es ard r|s|s.
4.4 Reg|onandEnv|ronment Probab|||ty Average |ndex (REPA|ndex}
0e Al| (199Z) exp|a|red ear||er l|al Courlry ard Erv|rorrerl R|s| W||| |ave ellecls or 25ol l|e l|ree
r|s| laclors (0eolec|r|ca|: 50, Ecoror|c: 25). lCR0 |rlerprels courlry r|s| |rlo l|ree ||rds ol r|s|s
(PR, ER, ard FR). lrdeed, l||s |o|ds lrue lor corpar|es W|o are go|rg lo |rvesl |r a cerla|r courlry, l|e
va|ues are l|e sare lor a|| areas/reg|ors |r l|al parl|cu|ar courlry.
w|l| regards lo lrdores|a, parl|cu|ar|y l|e areas ol Java as l|e Wor||rg area ol PT Perlar|ra 00l J88
W|l| a|| l|e ear||er rerl|ored |ssues, |l lurrs oul l|al Reg|ora| or Loca| Area R|s|s, |ere|raller relerred
as Reg|or R|s|s, oecore l|e ra|r |ssue re|aled lo dyrar|c deve|oprerls |r l|e area, as We|| as l|e
corrur|l|es ard erv|rorrerls ol l|e area. Reg|or r|s|s are espec|a||y due lo l|e eraclrerl ol l|e LaW
perla|r|rg lo Loca| Area Aulorory, as |oca| area goverrrerls ard corrur|l|es are |av|rg l|e
opporlur|ly lo oe rore acl|ve|y |rvo|ved |r ecoror|c deve|oprerl urderla||rgs |r l|e|r areas.
Cors|der|rg l|al l|ere |s yel ro researc| carr|ed oul corcerr|rg l||s raller, espec|a||y |r l|e 00l J88
exp|oral|or areas, |rlorra| d|scuss|ors W|l| l|e aclors W|o are |rvo|ved |r 00l J88 exp|oral|or
acl|v|l|es are corducled lo oola|r l|e r|s| |rdex.
T|e d|scuss|ors |ave produced l|ve qua||lal|ve descr|pl|ors ol reg|or r|s|s, rare|y Loca| Area
0overrrerls, Popu|al|or, Erv|rorrerla| lssues, Corrur|ly's 3ers|l|v|ly, ard Loca| Area
0eve|oprerls (see F|gure 12). T|e ||g|er l|e score (rax|rur score |s 1) ol l|e l|ve respecl|ve
calegor|es ol r|s|s, l|e |oWer l|e lrveslrerl R|s| Rale |r l|e area. T|e l|gures lor eac| ol l|e We||s are
oola|red lror exper|erces ol l|e Wr|lers ard l|e exp|oral|or lear W|||e Wor||rg al 00l J88
Exp|oral|or. L||e lnsr|rur|ona| lnvesror l||s approac| |s very suojecl|ve lor l|e delerr|ral|or ol 0ounrr,
R|sk, reverl|e|ess, l|roug| We|g|l|rg ol eac| ol l|e respecl|ve cr|ler|a laclors, l||s approac| |s oas|ca||y
a rod|l|ed lCR0ard lrsl|lul|ora| lrveslor rel|ods a|ready d|scussed ear||er.
R|s| assessrerls are corducled or eac| ol l|e respecl|ve We||s lor l|e l|ve r|s| calegor|es W|l||r a
per|od ol l|ree years lo produce l|e We|g|led average. T|e We|g|led average W||| l|er oe ca||ed l|e
Reg|on ano Env|ronmenr Prooao|||r,/verage lnoex {REP/lnoexj. (3ee Tao|e 1).
F|gure 12. F|ve lssues ol 'Reg|or R|s| al 00l J88 Exp|oral|or

Results of REPA ndex and R-3 index (REPA index X investment index) within 3 years at seven exploration wells
WeIIs Region
REPA
Index (RI)
nv.
ndex ()
RI 3 Index
(RI x II)
REPA
Index (RI)
nv.
ndex ()
RI 3 Index
(RI x II)
REPA
Index (RI)
nv.
ndex ()
RI 3 Index
(RI x II)
SGN Cikarang 0.76 1 0.76 0.50 0 0.00 0.46 0 0.00
RKM Karawang Tengah 0.77 1 0.77 0.50 0 0.00 0.48 0 0.00
BRK ndramayu Timur 0.84 1 0.84 0.82 1 0.82 0.77 1 0.77
PGT Bekasi UtaraTimur 0.78 1 0.78 0.69 0.5 0.35 0.50 0 0.00
PCC ndramayu Selatan 0.86 1 0.86 0.83 1 0.83 0.73 0.5 0.36
LNG Karawang Barat 0.79 1 0.79 0.83 1 0.83 0.74 0.5 0.37
TDC Karawang Utara 0.83 1 0.83 0.79 1 0.79 0.73 0.5 0.37
notes :
When REPA > 0.75, investment index = 1 (great probability for investment)
When REPA 0.50 - 0.75, investment index = 0.5 (investment probability = 50%)
When REPA < 0.50, Investment index = 0 (not good for investment)
Year 2 Year 3 Year 1
Results of REPA ndex and R-3 index (REPA index X investment index) within 3 years at seven exploration wells
WeIIs Region
REPA
Index (RI)
nv.
ndex ()
RI 3 Index
(RI x II)
REPA
Index (RI)
nv.
ndex ()
RI 3 Index
(RI x II)
REPA
Index (RI)
nv.
ndex ()
RI 3 Index
(RI x II)
SGN Cikarang 0.76 1 0.76 0.50 0 0.00 0.46 0 0.00
RKM Karawang Tengah 0.77 1 0.77 0.50 0 0.00 0.48 0 0.00
BRK ndramayu Timur 0.84 1 0.84 0.82 1 0.82 0.77 1 0.77
PGT Bekasi UtaraTimur 0.78 1 0.78 0.69 0.5 0.35 0.50 0 0.00
PCC ndramayu Selatan 0.86 1 0.86 0.83 1 0.83 0.73 0.5 0.36
LNG Karawang Barat 0.79 1 0.79 0.83 1 0.83 0.74 0.5 0.37
TDC Karawang Utara 0.83 1 0.83 0.79 1 0.79 0.73 0.5 0.37
notes :
When REPA > 0.75, investment index = 1 (great probability for investment)
When REPA 0.50 - 0.75, investment index = 0.5 (investment probability = 50%)
When REPA < 0.50, Investment index = 0 (not good for investment)
Year 2 Year 3 Year 1
Tao|e.1. REPA dar Rl3 lrdexes al 3ever Exp|oral|or we||s
T|e REPA lrdex |s prec|se|y |rd|cal|rg l|e prooao|||ly lor |rpul |r l|e ca|cu|al|or ol l|e Expecled
NPvrepa, rarager|a||y |oWever, |l |s lor l|e raragererl lo dec|de lor rol |rvesl|rg W|er l|e reg|or
r|s| |s ||g|. To lac|||lale l|e ca|cu|al|or ol Expecled NPv, l|e lrveslrerl lrdex |s supp||ed W|l| cerla|r
||r|l|rg requ|rererls, suc| as exp|a|red |r l|e lo||oW|rg secl|or.
20 20Z
J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g | J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g |
Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project
T||s lrdex |s very ellecl|ve lor |rd|cal|rg |rveslrerl prooao|||l|es |r ar area lor a cerla|r year, as
|||uslraled lor l||s case |r F|gure 11. Aller |rc|us|or ol l|e lrveslrerl lrdex (l2), l|e Rl3 cou|d l|er oe
oola|red. w|l| regards lo l|e sever We||s, l|e Rl3 lor l|e 30N ard RKV We||s |r l|e 2rd ard 3rd years |s
N|| (0), ard l|erelore, |rveslrerl lor l|e 30N ard RKV We||s s|ou|d oe rade |r l|e l|rsl year, l|al |s, |l
l|e corpary expecls ol rol |os|rg l|e |rveslrerl opporlur|ly |r l|e area. T|e Rl3 |rdex lor P0T We|| |r
year 3 |s r||, l|us, |rvesrerl s|ou|d oe rade e|l|er |r l|e l|rsl year or l|e secord year. T|e Rl3 |rdex
oecore ar |rpul lor ca|cu|al|rg l|e Expecled NPvr|3. Corp|ele dala ol l|e oola|red Rl3 lrdex| |s
preserled |r Tao|e 1.
4.6 6a|cu|at|onof EcpectedNPV through|nc|us|onof 8ens|t|v|ty, 0|scount Rate, REPA|ndex and
R|3 |ndex (ENPVdr, ENPVrepa, ENPVr|3}
Ca|cu|al|or ol l|e Expecled NPvdr (ENPvdr) |s oy ru|l|p|y|rg l|e NPv d|scourl rale (12, 1, 18)
ard l|e prooao|||ly ol r|s|s. T|e Expecled NPvrepa (ENPvrepa) |s oola|red lror us|rg l|e dec|s|or lree
rel|od lor l|ree success|ve years oy ca|cu|al|rg l|e REPA prooao|||ly REPA lor eac| year ard
ru|l|p|y|rg |l W|l| l|e ENPvdr.
us|rg l|e sare rel|od, l|e Expecled NPvr|3 (ENPvr|3) |s oola|red lror us|rg dec|sor lree lor 3 years,
ca|cu|al|rg l|e Rl3 prooao|||ly Rl3 ol eac| year ard ru|l|p|y|rg l|er W|l| ENPvdr. Tao|e 5 preserls l|e
dala process|rg resu|ls.
4.5 |nvestment |ndex andR|3 |ndex
Aller oola|r|rg l|e REPA lrdex, |l W||| l|er oe del|red l|al lor REPA scores ol < 0.5, l|ere W||| oe ro
|rveslrerl, lor REPA scores oelWeer 0.51 ard 0.Z5, l|e prooao|||ly lor |rveslrerl W||| oe 50, ard
|rveslrerls W||| cerla|r|y oe corducled W|er l|e REPA score |s grealer l|ar 0.Z5. T|e quarl|lal|ve
approac| ol l|e aoove qua||lal|ve |rveslrerl |s oy dec|d|rg or l|e lrveslrerl lrdex (l2), W|ere
REPA<=0.5, l|er l2 =0
REPA0.5-0.Z5, l|er l2 =0.5
REPA=>0.Z5, l|er l2 =1
Vu|l|p||cal|or ol l|e REPA lrdex (Rl) ard l|e lrveslrerl lrdex (l2) W||| produce l|e lrveslrerl
Prooao|||ly oased or Reg|or R|s|, relerred lo as Rl3, W|ere
RlJ =Rl x l2 ()
REPA INDEX FOR 3 YEARS IN EXPLORATION WELLS
ON PERTAMINA-JBB
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
SGN
RKM
BRK
PGT PCC
LNG
TDC
Tahun 1
Tahun 2
Tahun 3
RI3 INDEX FOR 3 YEARS IN EXPLORATION WELLS
OF PERTAMINA-JBB
-
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
SGN
RKM
BRK
PGT PCC
LNG
TDC
Tahun 1
Tahun 2
Tahun 3
F|gure13. 3p|der 0|agrar REPA lrdex ol Z 00l J88 Exp|oral|or we||s
F|gure 11. 3p|der 0|agrar Rl3 lrdex ol Z 00l J88 Exp|oral|or we||s
SUMMARY
Expected NPV from repa index (ENPVrepa) and Expected NPV from ri3 index (ENPVri3)
(Calculated for Three Years)
Wells Region ENPVrepa ENPVri3 ENPVrepa ENPVri3 ENPVrepa ENPVri3
SGN Cikarang 2,249.52 2,249.52 1,467.72 0.00 1,357.09 0.00
RKM Karawang Tengah 14675.68 14,675.68 9,591.95 0.00 9,208.27 0.00
BRK ndramayu Timur 46,292.20 46,292.20 45,460.60 45,460.60 42,411.42 42,411.42
PGT Bekasi UtaraTimur 124,640.21 124,640.21 111,372.06 55,686.03 79,608.91 0.00
PCC ndramayu Selatan 11,989.88 11,989.88 11,501.92 11,501.92 10,107.75 5,053.87
LNG Karawang Barat 30,227.46 30,227.46 31,666.86 31,666.86 28,404.22 14,202.11
TDC Karawang Utara 67,375.91 67,375.91 64,721.71 64,721.71 59,821.64 29,910.82
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
SUMMARY
Expected NPV from repa index (ENPVrepa) and Expected NPV from ri3 index (ENPVri3)
(Calculated for Three Years)
Wells Region ENPVrepa ENPVri3 ENPVrepa ENPVri3 ENPVrepa ENPVri3
SGN Cikarang 2,249.52 2,249.52 1,467.72 0.00 1,357.09 0.00
RKM Karawang Tengah 14675.68 14,675.68 9,591.95 0.00 9,208.27 0.00
BRK ndramayu Timur 46,292.20 46,292.20 45,460.60 45,460.60 42,411.42 42,411.42
PGT Bekasi UtaraTimur 124,640.21 124,640.21 111,372.06 55,686.03 79,608.91 0.00
PCC ndramayu Selatan 11,989.88 11,989.88 11,501.92 11,501.92 10,107.75 5,053.87
LNG Karawang Barat 30,227.46 30,227.46 31,666.86 31,666.86 28,404.22 14,202.11
TDC Karawang Utara 67,375.91 67,375.91 64,721.71 64,721.71 59,821.64 29,910.82
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Tao|e. 5. Ca|cu|al|or Resu|ls ol ENPvrepa dar ENPvr|3 lor 3 sucess|ve years
4.7 Use of Zero0ne Programm|ngfor |nvestment Portfo||oRank|ng|ndex
Aller ca|cu|al|rg l|e Expecled NPv lor eac| ol l|e respecl|ve |rdexes, eac| ol l|e rel|ods W||| l|er oe
rar|ed. Tao|e 5 preserls l|e corp|ele dala process|rg resu|ls. T|roug| l|e |rc|us|or ol |rveslrerl
|rdex, |l oecores eas|er lo produce l|e ENPvr|3, as l|e ENPv W||| oecore r|| |r l|e l|rsl ard secord
year. T|erelore, |l |s c|ear l|al l|e raragererl s|ou|d del|r|le|y dec|de lo |rvesl or l|e 30N We|| |r l|e
l|rsl year. T|e sare |o|ds lrue lor l|e RKV We||, |rveslrerl s|ou|d oe rade |r l|e l|rsl year.
lr ||re W|l| l|e exp|aral|or aooul l|e rel|odo|ogy, |rveslrerl lor a|| l|e We||s |s ||r|led lo or|y 100
V|||or u30. For l|e Rar||rg ol lrdexes |r l|e se|ecl|or ol porllo||os, 0aor|e|.A.C. (2002) |rlroduced
208 209
J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g | J u r r a | V a r a j e r e r T e | r o | o g |
Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project
4.8 Portfo||oAna|ys|s us|ng06FAna|ys|s dan0ec|sonTree of T|m|ng 0pt|onAna|ys|s
0oserv|rg l|e dala process|rg surrary ol porllo||o ara|ys|s preserled |r Tao|e Z, us|rg l|e 0CF
Ara|ys|s ore cou|d exp|a|r aooul l|e dec|s|or ra||rg ara|ys|s us|rg l|e Pl |rdex. 8ased or l|e ||g|esl
Pl rar||rg, l|ere are lour We||s prospecl|ve lor |rveslrerl, T0C, LN0, P0T, ard 8RK W|l| a lola|
|rveslrerl ol u3 S 388 V||||or W|l| NPv ol u3 S 31Z V||||or. us|rg l|e Zero-0re Prograrr|rg suc| as
s|oWr |r Tao|e , l|e prospecl|ve We||s oecore l|ve, rare|y 30N, 8RK, P0TLN0, ard T0C W|l| a lola|
|rveslrerl ol u3 S 39Z V||||or (sl||| oe|oW l|e rax|rur |rveslrerl ol u3 S 100 V||||or) W|l| NPv ol u3
S 320 V||||or.
severa| rel|ods. T|e slardard rel|od |s oy us|rg l|e lrdex Rar||rg ol 0CF, |oWever, l|e Wea|ress |s
l|al suc| rar||rg |s ol s|rg|e ralure. lr l||s case, l|e lrdex Rar||rg used |s l|e Prol|rao|||r, lnoeks (Pl).
4.7.1 0ata Process|ngw|thZero0ne Programm|ng
0aor|e| A.C. lurl|er exp|a|red arol|er rel|od lor se|ecl|or ol porllo||os, rare|y oy us|rg Zero-0re
Prograrr|rg. Zero-ore prograrr|rg |s a s|rp|e rel|od lor ca|cu|al|rg l|e rax|rur relurr ol ar
|rveslrerl porllo||o W|l| a ||r|led oudgel. T|e Vax|mum lnvesrmenr Porrlo||o lnvesras| |s expressed oy

hPv max = hPv| X| (Z)
lrveslrerls l|al oecore corslra|rls are expressed oy
l| X| <=l (8)
T|e X| va|ue |s a o|rary ruroer (0 ard 1), W|ere, W|er X| = 1, |rveslrerl s|ou|d oe rade ard |l W||| oe
l|e ol|er Way arourd W|er X| = 0. l slards lor lrveslrerl. T||s rel|od |s used lor oola|r|rg l|e rar||rg
ol We||s W|ere |rveslrerls are go|rg lo oe rade, rare|y lor l|e 0CF ard l|e 0ec|s|or Tree T|r|rg
0pl|or rel|ods, aller |rc|us|or ol 0|scourl Rale Prooao|||ly (ENPvdr) ard r|3 |rdex (ENPvr|3). Tao|e
preserls a surrary ol dala process|rg resu|ls us|rg Zero-0re Prograrr|rg.
4.7.2. Ana||sa has|| Pengo|ahan0ata denganZero-0ne Programm|ng
Resu|ls ol us|rg Zero-0re Prograrr|rg |r 0CFAra|ys|s |rd|cale l|al l|e 30N, 8RK, P0T, LN0, T0C
We||s are Worl| lor |rveslrerls W|l| a rax|rur NPv ol u3 S 320 V||||or ard lrveslrerl ol u3 S 39Z
V||||or, ard l||s |s oe|oW l|e Vax|rur lrveslrerl ol u3 S 100 V||||or.
Corcurrerl|y, resu|ls ol l|e 0ec|sor Tree T|r|rg 0pl|or us|rg ENPdr a|so |rd|cale l|e sare We||s as l|e
Zero-0re Prograrr|rg |r 0CFAra|ys|s, |oWever, W|l| ar ENPvdr ol 339 V u30, W||c| |s grealer l|ar
l|e 0CF. Cors|der|rg l|e resu|ls ol Zero 0re 0ec|sor Tree T|r|rg 0pl|or us|rg ENPvr|3, l|us,
|rveslrerls W||| oe rade lor 30N, RKV, P0T ard T0C We||s W|l| a rax|rur ENPvr|3 ol 209 V u30
ard |rveslrerl ol 311 V u30.
SUMMARY OF ZERO-ONE PROGRAMMING
DCF ANALYSIS AND DECISION TREE ANALYSIS OF TIMING OPTION
FOR 7 EXPLORATON WELLS (WTH MAX. NVESTNG 400 MUSD)
Wells
nvesment
(000)
NPV
(000)
Zero-
One
Investment
decisions
based on
zero-one
programming
ENPVdr
(000)
Zero-
One
Investment
decisions
based on
zero-one
Programming
ENPVri3
(000)
Zero-
One
Investment
decisions
based on
zero-one
Programming
SGN 9,250.00 3,373.69 1 OK 2,950.19 1 OK 2,249.52 take OK
RKM 61,650.00 21,360.75 0 NO 19,183.90 0 NO 14,675.68 take OK
BRK 83,600.00 51,426.67 1 OK 55,439.76 1 OK 46,292.20 0 NO
PGT 227,625.00 151,672.60 1 OK 160,826.08 1 OK 124,640.21 1 OK
PCC 44,900.00 12,829.40 0 NO 13,941.72 0 NO 11,989.88 0 NO
LNG 30,900.00 35,938.60 1 OK 38,384.08 1 OK 30,227.46 postpone NO
TDC 45,900.00 77,884.31 1 OK 81,667.77 1 OK 67,375.91 1 OK
I = 397,275.00 I = 397,275.00 I = 344,425.00
NPV = 320,295.87 ENPVdr 339,267.88 ENPVri3 208,941.33
Total investment fund USD 400.000.000
DCF ANALISYS DECISION TREE ANALYSIS TIMING OPTION
SUMMARY OF ZERO-ONE PROGRAMMING
DCF ANALYSIS AND DECISION TREE ANALYSIS OF TIMING OPTION
FOR 7 EXPLORATON WELLS (WTH MAX. NVESTNG 400 MUSD)
Wells
nvesment
(000)
NPV
(000)
Zero-
One
Investment
decisions
based on
zero-one
programming
ENPVdr
(000)
Zero-
One
Investment
decisions
based on
zero-one
Programming
ENPVri3
(000)
Zero-
One
Investment
decisions
based on
zero-one
Programming
SGN 9,250.00 3,373.69 1 OK 2,950.19 1 OK 2,249.52 take OK
RKM 61,650.00 21,360.75 0 NO 19,183.90 0 NO 14,675.68 take OK
BRK 83,600.00 51,426.67 1 OK 55,439.76 1 OK 46,292.20 0 NO
PGT 227,625.00 151,672.60 1 OK 160,826.08 1 OK 124,640.21 1 OK
PCC 44,900.00 12,829.40 0 NO 13,941.72 0 NO 11,989.88 0 NO
LNG 30,900.00 35,938.60 1 OK 38,384.08 1 OK 30,227.46 postpone NO
TDC 45,900.00 77,884.31 1 OK 81,667.77 1 OK 67,375.91 1 OK
I = 397,275.00 I = 397,275.00 I = 344,425.00
NPV = 320,295.87 ENPVdr 339,267.88 ENPVri3 208,941.33
Total investment fund USD 400.000.000
DCF ANALISYS DECISION TREE ANALYSIS TIMING OPTION
SUMMARY OF ZERO-ONE PROGRAMMING
DCF ANALYSIS AND DECISION TREE ANALYSIS OF TIMING OPTION
FOR 7 EXPLORATON WELLS (WTH MAX. NVESTNG 400 MUSD)
Wells
nvesment
(000)
NPV
(000)
Zero-
One
Investment
decisions
based on
zero-one
programming
ENPVdr
(000)
Zero-
One
Investment
decisions
based on
zero-one
Programming
ENPVri3
(000)
Zero-
One
Investment
decisions
based on
zero-one
Programming
SGN 9,250.00 3,373.69 1 OK 2,950.19 1 OK 2,249.52 take OK
RKM 61,650.00 21,360.75 0 NO 19,183.90 0 NO 14,675.68 take OK
BRK 83,600.00 51,426.67 1 OK 55,439.76 1 OK 46,292.20 0 NO
PGT 227,625.00 151,672.60 1 OK 160,826.08 1 OK 124,640.21 1 OK
PCC 44,900.00 12,829.40 0 NO 13,941.72 0 NO 11,989.88 0 NO
LNG 30,900.00 35,938.60 1 OK 38,384.08 1 OK 30,227.46 postpone NO
TDC 45,900.00 77,884.31 1 OK 81,667.77 1 OK 67,375.91 1 OK
I = 397,275.00 I = 397,275.00 I = 344,425.00
NPV = 320,295.87 ENPVdr 339,267.88 ENPVri3 208,941.33
Total investment fund USD 400.000.000
DCF ANALISYS DECISION TREE ANALYSIS TIMING OPTION
Tao|e . 0ala process|rg resu|ls us|rg zero-ore prograrr|rg
SUMMARY
DCF ANALYSIS AND DECISION TREE ANALYSIS OF TIMING OPTION
FOR 7 EXPLORATON WELL (WTH MAX. NVESTNG 400 MUSD)
Wells/
Prospects PI
nvestment
Decision
based on
P1 ranking
Invested
WeIIs In
year 1
nvestment
decisions
based on
zero-one
programming
Invested
WeIIs In
year 1
nvestment
decisions
based on
zero-one
programming
Invested
WeIIs In
year 1
SGN 1.55 NO OK SGN (5) OK SGN (1)
RKM 1.61 NO NO OK RKM (2)
BRK 2.06 OK BRK (4) OK BRK (4) NO
PGT 2.5 OK PGT (3) OK PGT (3) OK PGT (4)
PCC 1.54 NO NO NO
LNG 2.93 OK LNG (2) OK LNG (2) NO
TDC 3.82 OK TDC (1) OK TDC (1) OK TDC (3)
DCF ANALYSIS
DEC. TREE TIMING
OPTION ANALYSIS
SUMMARY
DCF ANALYSIS AND DECISION TREE ANALYSIS OF TIMING OPTION
FOR 7 EXPLORATON WELL (WTH MAX. NVESTNG 400 MUSD)
Wells/
Prospects PI
nvestment
Decision
based on
P1 ranking
Invested
WeIIs In
year 1
nvestment
decisions
based on
zero-one
programming
Invested
WeIIs In
year 1
nvestment
decisions
based on
zero-one
programming
Invested
WeIIs In
year 1
SGN 1.55 NO OK SGN (5) OK SGN (1)
RKM 1.61 NO NO OK RKM (2)
BRK 2.06 OK BRK (4) OK BRK (4) NO
PGT 2.5 OK PGT (3) OK PGT (3) OK PGT (4)
PCC 1.54 NO NO NO
LNG 2.93 OK LNG (2) OK LNG (2) NO
TDC 3.82 OK TDC (1) OK TDC (1) OK TDC (3)
DCF ANALYSIS
DEC. TREE TIMING
OPTION ANALYSIS
Tao|e Z. Rar||rg ol lrveslrerls us|rg 0CF Ara|ys|s ard 0T ol T|r|rg 0pl|or
Aller l|e |rc|us|or ol Ecoror|c R|s| (ENPvdr) ard Reg|or R|s| (ENPvr|3), l|e rar| ol |rveslrerl
opl|ors W||| a|so c|arge. us|rg l|e 0ec|sor Tree ol T|r|rg 0pl|or Ara|ys|s, l|e |rveslrerl dec|s|or W|l|
cors|deral|ors or reg|or r|s| suc| as exp|a|red ear||er W||| oe 30N, RKV, P0T ard T0C W|l| a
rax|rur ENPvr|3 ol u3 S 209 V||||or ard ar |rveslrerl arourl|rg lo u3 S 311 V||||or.
ll cou|d l|er oe corc|uded l|al W|er l|e corpary Wou|d |||e lo |rvesl ard oased or cors|deral|ors ol
reg|or or |oca| area r|s|s |r accordarce W|l| requ|rererls a|ready exp|a|erd ear||er, l|e |rveslrerl
s|ou|d oe carr|ed oul |r l|e respecl|ve sequerce, rare|y l|e 30N, RKV, T0C, ard P0T We||s, suc| as
s|oWr |r Tao|e Z.
V. 6onc|us|ons andRecommendat|ons
5.1 6onc|us|ons
1. T|e lrveslrerl Porllo||o Ara|ys|s approac| us|rg l|e 0ec|s|or Tree ol T|r|rg 0pl|or proves lo
preserl d|llererl resu|ls W|er or|y l|e 0CFAra|ys|s approac| |s oe|rg used.
2. T|e g|sl ol ore ol l|e T|r|rg 0pl|or rel|od |s l|e |rc|us|or ol r|s| laclors l|al are a|Ways c|arg|rg
every l|re.
3. Appra|sa| ol l|e reg|or/area r|s|s as ar |rpul lor ca|cu|al|rg l|e T|r|rg 0pl|or va|ue. lr l||s case, l|e
00l J88 |ad rever appra|sed l|e r|s|s, qua||lal|ve|y ror quarl|lal|ve|y, |r l|e ecoror|c
ca|cu|al|ors.
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5.2 Recommendat|ons
1. T|e rel|odo|og|ca| approac| |r Appra|s|rg Reg|or/Area R|s|s d|scussed |r l||s paper Wou|d sl|||
reed lurl|er |rprovererls l|roug| a spec|a| researc| lo oe corducled oy a Tear W|l| corpelerce
|r r|s| ara|ys|s.
2. T|e ol|er ellecl ol l||s surlace r|s| appra|sa| |s l|al oes|des lor opl|r|z|rg |rveslrerls, |l cou|d a|so
oe used as |r|l|a| |rpuls |r cosl esl|ral|or, W|l| l|e assurpl|or l|al l|e r|s| cou|d oe r|r|r|zed
l|roug| add|l|ors |r l|e cosl corporerls.
3. To oe ao|e lo ooserve lurl|er l|e ecoror|c appra|sa|, |l |s suggesled lor 00l J88 lo eslao||s| l|e
lrveslrerl Porllo||o Tear lor exp|oral|or urderla||rgs.
lopelu||y, l|e l|rd|rgs cou|d oerel|l l|e dec|s|or ra|ers as ar |rlroduclory ara|ys|s lor |rvesl|rg |r
correcl|or W|l| l|e proo|ers lac|rg 00l J88.
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Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project Econom|c Eva|uat|on For 0|| and Cas Exp|orat|on 0r||||ng Project