Assignment 3 Meteorology

Assignment #3 Severe Thunderstorms
Sarah Nielson
Meteorology 1010
July 28, 2014

1. The SPC below describes the initial severe weather warning for the Northeastern United
States. This issuance is by counties in each of the states presumed to be affected. The
states affected by the severe storm warning are Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,
Rhode Island, New York, Vermont and Connecticut. Severe weather is constantly
changing and therefore it is the responsibility of the individual to watch weather
stations for any changes. This means that there will not be a guarantee of severe
weather but is still considered a warning. A yellow shading indicates a slight chance of
severe thunderstorms during the warning period. Red represents a moderate risk of a
severe thunderstorm. Green represents that there will be a 10% chance or higher of
severe thunderstorms. With fuscia colored shaded areas it indicates a high risk of severe
thunderstorms. The SPC below indicates that there is a 10% or higher chance with a
slight chance in most areas for a severe thunderstorm. Thunderstorms are developed
when warm, humid air rises in an unstable environment.(The Atomosphere, pg. 273)

Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW2
WW 452 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NY RI VT 281810Z - 290000Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10SSE BDL/WINDSOR LOCKS CT/ - 35NNE BML/BERLIN NH/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /11SE BDL - 38ESE YSC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

LAT...LON 41797391 45117233 45116947 41797119

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.

Watch 452 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 452

VALID 282345Z - 290000Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W PVD TO
25 NNW BOS TO 25 WSW PWM TO 25 ESE MWN TO 35 ENE BML TO 65 NE BML.

LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 452 MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS SRN MAINE.
OTHERWISE...WW 452 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 290000Z.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500

..DEAN..07/28/14

ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...BTV...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

MEC001-005-007-017-031-290000-

ME
. MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN
OXFORD YORK
$$

MAC009-017-021-025-290000-

MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ESSEX MIDDLESEX NORFOLK
SUFFOLK
$$

NHC015-017-290000-

NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD
$$

RIC007-290000-

RI
. RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

PROVIDENCE
$$

THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$


VALID 282245Z - 282340Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BDL
TO 15 ESE EEN TO 15 N LCI TO 15 SE BML TO 60 N BML.

..DEAN..07/28/14


&&



CTC013-015-282340-

CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

TOLLAND WINDHAM
$$

MEC001-005-007-017-031-282340-

ME

OXFORD YORK
$$

MAC009-017-021-025-027-282340-

MA

ESSEX MIDDLESEX NORFOLK
SUFFOLK WORCESTER
$$

NHC001-003-011-013-015-017-282340-

NH

BELKNAP CARROLL HILLSBOROUGH
MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD
$$

RIC007-282340-

RI

PROVIDENCE
$$

$$


VALID 282140Z - 282240Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BDL
TO 25 NNE BAF TO 20 ESE LEB TO 10 NNW MWN TO 55 NE EFK.

..DEAN..07/28/14


&&



CTC003-013-015-282240-

CT

HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM
$$

MEC001-005-007-017-031-282240-

ME

OXFORD YORK
$$

MAC009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-282240-

MA

ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NORFOLK
SUFFOLK WORCESTER
$$

NHC001-003-007-011-013-015-017-282240-

NH

BELKNAP CARROLL COOS
HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM
STRAFFORD
$$

RIC007-282240-

RI

PROVIDENCE
$$

$$


VALID 282030Z - 282140Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..ROGERS..07/28/14


&&



CTC003-013-015-282140-

CT

$$

MEC001-005-007-017-031-282140-

ME

OXFORD YORK
$$

MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-282140-

MA

BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN
HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX
NORFOLK SUFFOLK WORCESTER
$$

NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-282140-

NH

BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE
COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH
SULLIVAN
$$

NYC021-083-115-282140-

NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLUMBIA RENSSELAER WASHINGTON
$$

RIC007-282140-

RI

PROVIDENCE
$$

VTC001-003-005-009-017-021-023-025-027-282140-

VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADDISON BENNINGTON CALEDONIA
ESSEX ORANGE RUTLAND
WASHINGTON WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$

$$


VALID 281940Z - 282040Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..ROGERS..07/28/14


&&



CTC003-013-015-282040-

CT

$$

MEC001-005-007-017-031-282040-

ME

OXFORD YORK
$$

MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-282040-

MA

BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN
HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX
NORFOLK SUFFOLK WORCESTER
$$

NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-282040-

NH

BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE
COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH
SULLIVAN
$$

NYC021-083-115-282040-

NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLUMBIA RENSSELAER WASHINGTON
$$

RIC007-282040-

RI

PROVIDENCE
$$

VTC001-003-005-009-017-021-023-025-027-282040-

VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADDISON BENNINGTON CALEDONIA
ESSEX ORANGE RUTLAND
WASHINGTON WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$

$$

2. Comparing and analyzing the Doppler and satellite imagery for this specific severe
thunderstorm warning was similar to the warning given through the SPC. The satellite
image showed the cloud cover to be extremely profound around the states mentioned
in the warning. There was a significant portion of think clouds that looked similar to
cumulonimbus clouds which are the clouds created by the upward air movement of
warm air. Cumulonimbus clouds are the thunderstorm-producing clouds and therefore
show that a severe thunderstorm will be present over the depicted states in the satellite
imagery.

The Doppler image shows moderate thunderstorms in the area with areas largely dominated by
a 10% chance or more of severe thunderstorms. Both the Doppler and satellite images indicate
the chance of a severe thunderstorm which therefore indicates that the SPC warning was
correct for the area. However rarely does weather go in a direct line. This means that the
severe weather is entitled to change and shift as weather constantly does because of changes
in the atmosphere.

Assignment 3 Meteorology

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Assignment #3 Severe Thunderstorms

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