Predicting the Emotional State of an Event

Natasha Lewis - PSY 2010 - Dr. Karen Kwan

Can people predict, with accuracy, their future emotional state of an event?
Abstract
Articles compare research findings on predicting ones emotional state-his/her open-mindedness; past and impact bias are the key factors in having the ability to predict future emotions. Research shows that people will either overestimate their reaction to an event or will overlook the impact it has on their thoughts and feelings. The articles also explain the significant role of the past and its immense influence on prediction-accuracy. The past is the key and once people realize its influence, they will be able to manipulate and predict their future sentiments. Research also found that not focusing enough on the past and allowing the impact bias to influence them will leave them lacking of this unique skill.

Intro
Are we able to adequately predict the emotional state of a future event? Studies show that people are unable to predict a true reaction to an emotional futuristic event. Focalizism Impact bias The past plays a significant role in predicting how a person may feel in the future.

Types of studies - Method/procedures

People overestimate how intense their emotions will be and how they lack the ability to predict the duration of the reaction. They also showed how people will focalize a situation People neglect their psychological immune system People predicted how they would react to a situation most people underestimated how they would react to the happiness they actual experienced.

Comparison & Evaluation of Studies

The articles supported each other. It was interesting how they would quote each other in their studies. They also did a good job showing the reader how people are unable to predict how they will react to a future event, emotionally. The researchers found that the past does play a significant role in how people will react emotionally to a futuristic event. This is important to remember as it is key to unlocking how to predict the outcome of an emotional event.

Gaps Limitations
The lack of evidence to support how educating a person on the ability to predict the emotional state of a futuristic event. How morals play into our ability to think about the future.

Skills to adequately predict the future emotional state of an event

Ayton, Pott, and Elwakili (2007) stated, First people would need to make an effort to compare past experiences with future ones. Second, even if making the effort, they would have to decide which of their many past experiences were applicable to the future being contemplated. Third, even when making the effort to think about past events and also selecting an appropriate event, they would need to recall accurately how they felt (p.66)

Theme Ethical Considerations

Our inability to predict the future, and the reason behind this. The skills needed to be able to adequately predict our emotional state of an event. How the past affects our ability to predict our emotional state of an event.

References
Agerstrom, J., Bjorklund, F., & Carlsson, R. (2012). Emotions in time: Moral emotions appear more intense with temporal distance. Guilford Publications, 30 (2), 181-198. Doi: 10.1521/soco.2012.30.2.181. Ayton, P., Pott, A., & Elwakili, N. (2007). Affective forecasting: Why cant people predict their emotions? Psychology Press 13 (1), 62-80. Doi: 10.1080/13546780600872726 Caruso, E. M., Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2008). A wrinkle in time asymmetric valuation of past and future events. Psychological Science, 19 (8) 796-801. Doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2008.02159.x Tonn, B.E., & Conrad F. (2007). Thinking about the future: A psychological analysis. Social Behavior and Personality, 35 (7), p889-902. http://web.b.ebscohost.com.dbprox.slcc.edu/ehost/detail?vid=4&sid=c238db87-c4e4-49a5-b6b1fdc8a16afd1a%40sessionmgr110&hid=121&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=pbh&AN=27552618 Wilson, T.D. & Gilbert, D.T. (2005). Affective forecasting knowing what to want. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 14 (3) 131-134. Doi: 10.1111/j.0963-7214.2005.00355.x

Future Research
More research is need to prove that we are able to adequately predict the emotions of future events by the skills they have given us.