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4 0%
2 0%
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19 9 4

19 9 5

1 9 96

19 9 7

Ja n

Feb

M ar

Apr

May

Ju n

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Aug

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-2 0%
-4 0%

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U .S . stocks

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3.5

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8
LTCM starts operations
7

2.5

5
2
4
1.5
3
1

BAA-Treasury yield spread (left scale)


0.5

MBS-Treasury yield spread (left scale)

Italian-German yield spread (right scale)


0

0
86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

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Ai tiUL?_ ThLM*i4 t |@| |i |hi ULhhi*@|L? 4@) U@?}i Lih |4i Bi? |@| i
t|@h| | @ ih) } ULhhi*@|L?c U t ML?_i_ M) ?|)c |ihi t ThLM@M*) 4Lhi U@?Ui
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?Uhi@tit uh|ih |L b2eIc U t 4Lhi |@? |Ui |i Lh}?@* ?4Mih | |t *ii*c |i
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6WBN+, . ,giU| Lu Lhhi*@|L? L? +t!


(pe rc en t p er m on th )
35%

30%

Risk

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

C o rre la tio n

W? bbHc 4 _hLTt t@hT*) |L fHc i T*@??} ) |i UL?ih}i?Ui t|h@|i}) t__i?*) i?|
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i t?Ui bbec i? 4 hi4@?i_ @MLi fbe At t 4)LTUc Liihc @t @ *L?}ih t|Lh)
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1.0

(co rre la tio n )

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6

2-year average

0.5

5-year average

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

aLhL?+t! @?@}i4i?| wittL?t uhL4 wA

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ri wkh wuxh fryduldqfh pdwul{1 Ehfdxvh wkh wudghu pd| qrw nqrz wkh wuxh pdwul{/ wkhvh
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@}@?t| 4L?|*) U@?}it ? Uhi_| tThi@_t Ai | t hi4@h!@M*) }LL_c ?_U@|?} |@| @
t?}*i ht! u@U|Lh L*_ i T*@? bfI Lu |i @h@|L? T |L |i 5iT|i4Mih M@*L| #@|@
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`i U@? UL4M?i |i ?uLh4@|L? L? |i i TLthi Lu |i u?_ | |i _@*) L*@|*|)
Lu Uhi_| tThi@_t EhiTLh|i_ ? 6}hi D |L t4*@|i |i u?_<t L*@|*|) 6Lh **t|h@|L?
ThTLtitc i @tt4i |@| |i ?it|4i?| t|h@|i}) ? bbH t UL?t|@?| |hL}L| |i *ui Lu
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|i RThit4i_ @*i Lu meD 4**L? Ai }hi tLt _i @h@|L?t ? |i u?_<t L*@|*|)c
U h@?}it uhL4 @ *L Lu mDD 4**L? ? a*) bbH |L @ } Lu m2eD 4**L? ? U|LMih
bbH W| t ?|ihit|?} |L ?L|i |@|c @_ tU @ t|LhU@* @?@*)tt Mii? TihuLh4i_c | L*_
@i tL? tiih@* TihL_t ThLh |L bbH i? |i L*@|*|) @t U*Lti |L m2ff 4**L? At
|i |@h}i| L*@|*|) Lu meD 4**L? @t ?hi@*t|U@**) *L At i T*@?t L |i hi^hi_
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aLhL?+t! @?@}i4i?| wittL?t uhL4 wA

6WBN+, b , T*@??} wA +i|h?t


R eturn a fter fe es
40%

N ov-98

20%
Feb-99

Jan-99
JulM ar-99
Apr-99
D ec-98
O ct-98
M ay
Jun

0%

-20%

-40%

Aug

-60%

-80%

Sep

-100%
-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

C han ge in C orp orate B on d Sp read

6WBN+, f 54*@|i_ #@*) VL*@|*|) Lu |i 6?_


(D o lla r v olatility)
$300

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0
94

95

96

97

98

wA t @ }LL_ i @4T*i Lu |i M@tit ? TLh|uL*L LT|43@|L? ?*) @ ui Lu |i
RUL?ih}i?Ui |h@_it UL*_ |h*) ^@*u) @t @hM|h@}i |h@_it ?i i @4T*i t |i *L?} TLt|L?
? |i Lg|ih? ML?_ Lgti| M) @ tLh| TLt|L? ? |i L?|ih? i^@*i?| W? |t U@tic
|i ThLM@M*|) Lu _iu@*| t _i?|U@* @?_ ii?|@**)c |i |L ML?_t ** UL?ih}i |L |i t@4i

aLhL?+t! @?@}i4i?| wittL?t uhL4 wA

2e

@*i E? ftL4i )i@ht W? |i 4i@?|4ic |L}c |i tThi@_ UL*_ _i? uh|ihc |t
hi^h?} |i u?_ |L U@hh) i?L} U@T|@* |L @MtLhM |i4TLh@h) *Lttit
6Lh 4Lt| L|ih |h@_itc |i TLh|uL*L @t i TLti_ |L __i? ht!t Ai |)TU@* ThL*i Lu
Uhi_| tThi@_ |h@_it t |L 4@!i t4@** ThL|t EU U@? Mi @4T*i_ |hL} *iih@}i 4Lt|
Lu |i |4ic M| |L |@!i @ M} *Ltt L?Ui ? @ *i At ThL*i t @!? |L @ tLh| TLt|L? ?
@? LT|L? AL @ttitt |i TLttM*|) Lu U@|@t|hLTU M| h@hi ii?|t tU @t tLihi}? _iu@*|tc
4@h!i| Lh TL*|U@* _thT|L?tc L?i U@??L| uLUt L? hiUi?| t|Lh) L?*)
54*@h*)c @ tLh| TLt|L? ? i^|) L*@|*|) @t @? @t)44i|hU T@)Lg ThL*i 6}hi
c uLh ?t|@?Uic T*L|t |i _t|hM|L? Lu @||i4L?i) LT|L? L*@|*|it Lih |i TihL_
bb |L bb. Ai _t|hM|L? t t|hL?}*) @t)44i|hU At ti**?} L*@|*|) i TLtit |i
TLh|uL*L |L |i ht! Lu *@h}i *Lttit _i |L ?Uhi@ti_ L*@|*|) }@?c |i TLt|L? t @!? |L
@ tLh| TLt|L? ? @? LT|L? At *@|i?| i TLthi |L U@|@t|hLTU ht!t i T*@?t ) i_}i
u?_t U@? u@* _h@4@|U@**)2D
6WBN+, #t|hM|L? Lu 5|LU! @h!i| VL*@|*|)
Frequency over 1993-1997

0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Im p lie d vo la tility

AL 4@!i | ii? Lhtic |i wA TLh|uL*L @t @*tL i TLti_ |L *^_|) ht!c U
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ThUi|@!ihc i t ?L| *@h}i i?L} |L @giU| ThUit +t! 4@?@}iht ?L hiUL}?3i |@| |t
58 Wkh

Suhvlghqw*v Zrunlqj Jurxs uhsruw qrwhv wkdw wkh djjuhjdwh shuirupdqfh ri khgjh ixqgv vkrxog eh
dgmxvwhg e| wkhlu yhu| kljk udwhv ri glvdsshdudqfh1 Vwduwlqj lq 4<<7/ iru lqvwdqfh/ ihzhu wkdq wkuhh0iwk ri
wkh ixqgv vxuylyhg wkurxjk 4<<;1 Vlplodu udwhv ri dwwulwlrq duh uhsruwhg e| Eurzq/ Jrhw}pdqq/ dqg Leerwvrq
+4<<<,1

aLhL?+t! @?@}i4i?| wittL?t uhL4 wA

2D

@tt4T|L? 4@) ?L| Mi @TThLTh@|i uLh tL4i tiht2S ih@**c |i TLh|uL*L hi|h?t @_ @
_t|hM|L? t4*@h |L @ tLh| TLt|L? ? @? LT|L?c @t tL? ? 6}hi 2
6WBN+, 2 #t|hM|L? Lu wA<t L?|*) +i|h?t
Frequency over March 1994-September 1998

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

M o n th ly re tu rn

wA *!i_ |L UL4T@hi |ti*u |L @ `@** 5|hii| ?it|4i?| M@?!c *!i 5@*L4L? hL|ihtc
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?4Mih Lu hi@tL?t 6ht|c M@?! TLh|uL*Lt @hi 4Lhi _ihti_ @UhLtt ht! u@U|Lht Ai) _i@*
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