EPA Memo-Cogen

www.energyportfolioassociates.com
The Spark
(914) 381-6300 F (914) 381-6303 October 30, 2009

EPA Memo-Cogen’s Energy Price Commentary & Technical Research

atural Gas & Electricity

The last week for Natural Gas and Electricity trading was one of the more significant in the last few months. While we did all of our
tracked contracts get slightly weaker from a price perspective in the last week, the real movement was in the longer term Point &
Figure Charts. With out exception we saw all the calendar strips we follow reverse their recent downtrends and start to head lower.

While this may very well be the beginning of the decline we have been expecting and writing about for the last several weeks, cau-
tion and patience are the words of the day. We are starting to enter the seasonal period where often we have often seen the end of the
fourth quarter winter rally, followed by an excellent buying opportunity. However, we are very early in the season with first quarter
declines historically bottoming out from Mid December to Mid January. For now we continue to suggest float with the market and
wait for the charts to confirm the next opportunity to lock in prices.

Natural Gas Strip Current Price* Price Target

6 Month 5.49 –.16 9.3
12 Month 5.73 – .13 8.7
24 Month 6.20 - .13 8.6

PJM Electric Strip Current Price* Price Target

6 Month .0502 - .0032 9.6
12 Month .0545 - .0033 8.4
24 Month .0580 - .0029 8.3

PJM Electric 12 Month Strip

*prices are a snapshot at time of composition. Price changes are on a publication over publication change.

This Newsletter is authored by Michael E. Mollin. Michael E. Mollin is the principal of M.E. Mollin & Company LLC a Registered Investment Advisor in
New York State. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable, however, Energy Portfolio Associates ("EPA") and M.E. Mollin & Company
LLC ("MEM") do not warrant it's completeness or accuracy. Quotes are estimates and are not guaranteed by either EPA or MEM. Neither EPA or MEM is
acting as your advisor and the decision to proceed with any transaction rest solely with you. Copyright 2009, M.E. Mollin & Company, LLC