There Will Be No Sustainable U.S.

Economic Recovery for Ten Years There is no economic acceleration coming to the US or to the global economy unless the US makes major structural changes in our a roach to economic gro!th . "ur roblem is neither too much regulation an# ta$ation% as &onservatives say% nor a lack of #eman#% as 'iberals say. "n the latter oint% #oes anyone kno! a single erson in the mi##le class !ho lacks anything( So ho! can it be lack of #eman#( Both of those oints just sho! the e$tent of economic ignorance among olicy makers an# economists. )t is shocking that economist are using historical gro!th numbers to make future re#ictions% !ithout seeing if ne! variables% not resent in the ast% might change resent an# future gro!th. This is not a #oom*an#* gloom re ort. Even #uring this erio#% the US !ill remain the !orl#+s lea#ing economy. Sim ly ut% no non*bubble*stimulate# economic gro!th can ha en if the mi##le class gets smaller an# net !orth is regressing. )t is mathematically a near certainty that if these ten tren#s are not reverse#% this tiresome situation is going to get !orse , certainly not better. The tren#s are clear. No matter !hat the -./ is 0-./ !as never meant to be an evaluator1% there is no economic recovery coming our !ay. The follo!ing are t!elve tren#s that are factual an# in#is utable. 2o! much longer they may e$ist or ho! critical they are may be is u for argument% but these tren#s are entrenche#% an# !ithout major olicy changes they !ill not reverse course.

1. Credit Expansion is Contracting. .ebt saturation has reache# a oint !here the consumer is no longer in a osition to increase cre#it. 3any consumers are no! #eleveraging an# !ill be for years to come. When one revie!s the im etus of consumer gro!th in the 45+s an# 657s% it+s retty clear that ta$ rates !ere barely nominal at best. The huge #eman# of the Baby Boomers came from access to cre#it. The &linton years% !ith e$ce tionally high ta$es% sa! higher job gro!th #ue to the ever*increasing cre#it e$ ansion. When this came to an en# in 8559% !ith the .com bubble% cre#it constricte#% an# so #i# the economy. To counter this% the :e# ble! another bubble to e$ an# cre#it. ;fter the 8556 blo!*u % cre#it contraction fro<e the economy% so the :e# acte# again. 2o!ever% bet!een e#ucation% home o!nershi an# healthcare costs% the a##itional leverage for consumer #eman# is not going to ha en. Those three areas make u 95=> of cre#it e$ ansion. This means it+s contracting in other areas. &onsumers are ma$e# out. Their !ages #o not allo! for them to service an increase# #ebt loa#. )n emerging markets% !here cre#it is e$ an#ing at a ?uick ace% so is the economy. 2. Consumer Spending Has Been Trending Down for Over 15 ears. Since the height of the internet cra<e% the rate of average increase in retail s en#ing is on a #o!n!ar# tren#. The rate of increase has continue# to go #o!n over the ast #eca#e. When looking at these tren#s over the ast fe! years at about @> !e actually see that mi##le class s en#ing is flat to negative% as !e can inter olate this by looking at recor# sales at 3erce#es% B3W% 3ichael &oors% high*en# restaurants% 3ichael Aors% Nor#strom7s% Williams Sonoma% :ossil% an# Tumi are just a fe! seeing e$ce tional gro!th. "n the other si#e% Target% &oach% Wal3art% an# .ar#en Restaurants are seeing near*flat sales. :rom this% !e can see !here the @> gro!th is coming from. @. T!e "eturn on #roductivit$ to %a&or and Capita' Has (ever Been as )ide as in t!e %ast 1** ears. When cor orations take 95=> of ro#uctivity gains% incongruities are going to ha en. )n history% labor an# ca ital have share# the results of ro#uctivity. Sometimes labor has ha# the u er han#% like they #i# in the si$ties. )t might be argue# that art of the stagflation roblem !as that labor ha# goo# contracts in lace% but rofits !ere falling% causing unem loyment but costs rising to!ar# labor. ;fter Reagan got into office% the tren# move# in the other #irection% to the oint that labor in the rivate sector may be at its !eakest oint in nearly 955 years.

)t is ossible to #e#uce from this gra h that the stagflation of the late B57s an# C57s might be in art #ue to the fact that labor costs !ere too high. These labor costs !ere so great in relation to return to ca ital that !e sa! inflation% even !ith high unem loyment. The Reagan revolution may have occurre# because labor an# ca ital costs move# closer to e?uilibrium. 2o!ever% this tren# continue# to move ast e?uilibrium% an# a tren# that is no! so lo si#e# to!ar# ca ital that !ithout a #ramatic reversal% this economy cannot return to real gro!th. What makes free*markets so o!erful is that they are the hot be# of innovation% an# innovation bree#s other innovation. )n this rocess% efficiency is create#% an# human ca ital is cut but #irecte# to!ar# other en#eavors , sometimes the rocess is ainful. 2o!ever% !hen efficiency is lace# over innovation as !e see to#ay% free*markets lose groun# to mono olies an# Dcrony ca italism.E Efficiency is not ba# in itself% but !hen lace# over innovation% human ca ital is relegate# to some secon#ary commo#ity. ;t first this ractice is roclaime# as Djust business%E but over the long*term this bifurcation #isenfranchises more an# more from the economy. ;s this occurs to make u for lost !ages% the government re laces !ages% an# rivate enter rises offer !on#erful cre#it. These t!o #rugs rovi#e relief for a erio#% but as the mi##le class continues to shrink% there are fe!er eo le to ay ta$es an# take out cre#it. The efficiencies of the market lace have limits. )f they go too far% they #estroy the very economy that fee#s them. This is the oint !e are at to#ay. &or orate gree# is !ay ast the gray area an# has become a leach on the system The other roblem is that !e give cor orations too much stimulus money !hen they are negative job creators. +. ,oore-s %aw .s E'iminating ,ore /o&s T!an )e 0re Creating. We no! have half the manufacturing jobs to create #ouble the out ut. )t+s only going to get !orse% as robotics #isru tion is just entering the acceleration hase of the S curve. Early on in the 457s an# 657s% ne! technologies !ere creating jobs faster than eliminating them. This only reinforce# the i#ea that both technology an# globali<ation !oul# create a boom for the ;merican !orker. Something began to ha en in the late 657s as jobs #isa eare# an# !ere not being re lace# by ne! ositions. ;s technology has soare# in both its ability an# a lication% job losses are balance# out by ne! o ortunities. We can seeF !hat( 5. ,idd'e C'ass Taxes on Education1 Hea't!care and 2as 0re S3uee4ing Disposa&'e .ncomeG 3ajor cor orations an# the government have become leaches on the system instea# of value creators. The costs of healthcare% gas% an# college are a huge ta$ on the mi##le class. The ;&; may in the en# make healthcare more affor#able% but u to this oint it is still so much more e$ ensive. &or orate corru tion is getting !orse% an# their ability to elevate the costs of sta les like gas an# foo# has nothing to #o !ith the free market system. )t7s actually #estroying it. &onsumers+ !allets are s?uee<e# har#er every year. 5. #ension #ressures on %oca' 2overnments .s "educing /o&s and .ncreasing 6ees on t!e ,idd'e C'ass. The latest re ort from the Aellogg School of 3anagement at North!estern University foun# unfun#e# liabilities at local an# state government have reache# H.H trillion #ollars. &ities have ta$e# mi##le class citi<ens !ith higher fees an# ta$es. Wages stagnate. There !ill be no meaningful hiring coming from this sector for ?uite a!hile. 7. S'owing Emerging ,ar8ets. ;ll those gro!th stories of ne! avenues for cor orate rofits are not en#ing% but they are slo!ing #o!n. The tren# for the ast 85 years has been huge gro!th in this sector. While !e are not close to the to of the S curve% !e are in the art !here marginal returns are getting smaller an# this !ill hit earnings gro!th. )n a##ition to a natural consoli#ation erio#% !hich is art of any erio# of massive economic e$ ansion% !e have a currency crisis. The ta ering of US an# the massive rinting of the Yen% E3 currencies have fallen into full rotection mo#e. This is turning into a huge barrier for internal an# e$ternal investment. This also !ill have a huge im act on multinational rofits. )t7s clear after listening to first ?uarter revenue rojections for 859H that this is alrea#y laying out. 9. T!e #overt$ #aradox .s Ta8ing Energ$ out of t!e Econom$. We no! have the lo!est labor artici ation rate since... Since !hen( Work is !here !e buil# our social an# economic ca ital. When eo le #on7t !ork% they lose out on more than just money. )t7s ba# enough that the tren#s lea# to less em loyment. unless you have STE3 skills% but the government safety net rogram is more like a government #e en#ency objective. There is little #oubt that !ithout a safety net% millions of families !oul# have been crushe# by this last move by big business to crush em loyment. 2aving sai# this% these rograms are not structure# to encourage transformation to meet the ne! nee#s of this global economy. /eo le have become over!helme# an# have checke# out% acce ting SS)% !elfare an# other ackage# benefits% reali<ing that !hile you get less than if you ha# a job% it+s better than !orking t!o jobs just to survive. This is a rational an# objective choice but it+s ba# for both the country an# the family. When eo le become #e en#ent% they loose the !ill to be art of a thriving% gro!ing

community. This lost energy has a negative im act. Ne! re orts also in#icate that 8=> of stu#ent loans are being use# for living e$ enses. )nstea# of !orking #ea#*en#% lo! aying jobs% consumers are a##ing to stu#ent loans by atten#ing for* rofit colleges to #efer ayments an# get living e$ enses. This is just another e$am le of ho! eo le are navigating the system. ) call this D-overnment overty yiel# seeking.E This occurs !hen eo le com are !orking t!o minimum !age jobs !ith using government rograms to get by. They say% D) can get by !ith less money an# less stress if ) take subsi#ies.E They are making a rational #ecision. 0This is not blaming the oor. Such a #ecision is no #ifferent from the thought rocesses of contractors ) kno! !ho only take .e artment of .efense !ork because it ays better% or banks !ho receive government bail*outs. )t7s also no #ifferent than stock investors !ho kno! stocks are overvalue#% but buy them only because they kee going u , that7s calle# chasing yiel#. When the rich take a#vantage of government% it+s calle# o ortunity. When it+s the oor% it+s calle# #e en#ence.1 There are o tions like increasing ta$ cre#its an# allo!ing eo le to fin# art*time jobs !hile on unem loyment to increase family incomes. ) !oul# have unem loyment checks get smaller every !eek by I=% let families kee all the earnings an# not restrict !ork. ; art*time job of 95 to 85 hours a !eek shoul# be a re?uirement for unem loyment. Aee eo le !orking #aily until they fin# a ermanent job. This kee s them in the game. )n this slack economy% enali<ing !ork is the last thing !e !ant to #o. ;s long as !e hi#e the oor behin# a DsmallerE labor artici ation rate% economic energy !ill #!in#le. :. T!e End of t!e Su&ur&an Bui'dout .s at Hand. :or the first time in nearly 955 years% cities are gro!ing faster than the suburbs. Even if this reversal is only tem orary% the suburbs are not com lete an# lacking any nee# for a mall. The US economy built its mega*cities an# then create# suburbs% !hich create# the great migration. This great migration create# a huge buil#ing boom from the =57s to the en# of the century. )t+s nearly im ossible to believe that any substantial gro!th can be e$ ecte# in these areas. Rebuil#ing the inner cities !ill take u some of the slack% but no!here near !hat is being lost. 1*. .nterest Cannot 2o Down 0n$ ,ore.; This tren# may be the scariest of all% because the only !ay to increase s en#ing an# increase the rices of assets is to increase cre#it. 2o!ever% if !ages are not going u % the only !ay to increase cre#it is to make it less e$ ensive% to service the #ebt% an# that is #one by lo!ering interest rates. 'o!er interest rates make large urchases affor#able. The roblem that the :e# has create# is that !e are no! in a J)R/ 0<ero interest rates1 environment. Rates can7t go #o!n any more% so the only tren# from this oint on!ar# is flat to u !ar# movement. This is not goo# for real estate a reciation. This makes any increase in the !ealth effect minimal at best. )t also !ill act like a ta$ on big urchases like cars. The interest rates on cars are lo!% so the only !ay to increase the rice no! is to lengthen the loan time. )n 3arch 859H% a recor#*setting 85> of ne! cars !ere urchase# !ith si$*year loans. The same re ort sa! the average ne! car loan cost IHC9 a month. 11. #opu'ations 0re 0ging and Dec'ining. The Baby Boomer generation is not a uni?uely ;merican henomenon. )t7s global an# !ill be felt first in Ka an% as they are alrea#y on the #o!n!ar# tren# of national o ulation in real terms. Ta$ bur#ens for 3e#icare can only go u . @5 to 9=5 trillion #ollars**an# yes that is a DtE in trillion**of unfun#e# liabilities e$ist from rograms like 3e#icare. Even the Tea /arty says han#s off on this one. Where !ill the money come from to ay for this( 2igher rogram fees an# ta$es. The mi##le class !ill ay the highest ercentage of income% an# this is a guarantee# economic #rag. 2o e is a olicy that !ill #efinitely not solve this roblem. The el#erly are also consoli#ators% so this huge generation !ill be s en#ing less% an# this !ill be a certain #rain on the economy /ositive Tren#s Not all tren#s are negative for the mi##le class. -lobali<ation of manufacturing jobs is reversing course% as !ages increase aroun# the globe% an# higher e#ucation is nee#e# to o erate ne! robotics. There is ersonal ro#uctivity% an# the ability to #o more an# be more creative has never been better. There are alternative !ays to make a##itional income an# live a chea er an# more community*base# lifestyle. " ortunities to create niche businesses are limitless% an# a global market lace resents fantastic chances for making contacts. What might en# u saving our global economy is the ability to hasten this rocess. " ortunities to create innovative content only become brighter every #ay. /eo le !ho are creative !ill flourish% even if their incomes #on7t an# it+s this class that may give us a glim se of the future. The a#vent of barterLcurrency e$changes like bit coin coul# give mi##le class families free#om from tra#itional currencies to e$change services an# i#eas. This coul# en# u be very transformative an# robably #eflationary. ;nother ositive tren# for the US !orker is that globali<ation has increase# the !ages of others aroun# the !orl# to the oint !here it is no longer a no*brainer to move ro#uction overseas. )n fact% more an# more com anies are looking to

move o erations back to the US. This is ositive for the US !orker. 2o!ever% these ne! lants !ill be highly robotic. 3ost jobs !ill not return% an# a fairly a#vance# STE3 e#ucation !ill be nee#e# to o erate these ne! #evices. 2o!ever% for the ne$t five to ten years% all ) foresee is macro malaise as the o!ers*that*be s?uee<e the mi##le class. The only situation that ) coul# see changing this !oul# be if &hina fin#s a !ay to accelerate transition from mercantilism to a consumerLservices base# economy% an# some forms of technology accelerate job gro!th in some uninten#e# !ays. )t is ossible that !e coul# stimulate the gro!th of emerging markets an# fin# a !ay to get ;frica more involve#. Bio* technology an# @. rinting are game*changers but are a #eca#e a!ay from being big job creators. "il an# gas are ro ing us u no!% an# the long*term tren# is goo#% but it+s not the job creator that eo le think. ;griculture coul# be revolutioni<e# in some !ay. Things are not #oom*an#*gloom long*term% but all the tren#s are going against a resent*#ay gro!th economy mo#el. ;gain% &hina !ill not re lace the US as the !orl#+s to economy. We !ill stay number one for #eca#es to come% but !e !ill have at least another #eca#e of sluggish gro!th% unless !e enact a real gro!th lan that ) lay out in...... in !hat( These tren#s are creating a huge roa#block but are almost ignore# as the ress an# economists cannot un#erstan# !hy !e are not seeing economic gro!th. 2uge cor orate rofits are a countervailing argument to the tren#s rovi#e# here. /rofits !ill continue to increase for the ne$t fe! years% even if they are marginally #ecreasing. This !ill also be ignore# as !e can e$ ect more /E e$ ansion to s?uee<e this bull run. 2o!ever% the smart money is alrea#y ulling back. 3oore+s 'a! allo!e# cor orations to innovate an# e$ an# nationally an# globally. This renaissance rovi#e# gro!th to increase #eman#. 2o!ever% #eman# !as ?uickly met% so to increase #eman# in the mi#* to late*457s% banks e$ an#e# cre#it rograms to the mi##le class% because globali<ation !as alrea#y re#ucing !ages. )ncreasing #ebt through cre#it an# housing e?uity% along !ith sharing the im act of huge ro#uctivity gains% creates( huge job gro!th. 2o!ever% over the longer*term cor orations #eci#e# to return ca ital to the investors instea# of to labor. The only !ay to increase #eman# in the first #eca#e !as to create a housing bubble. This create# an illusion of gro!th that !as not there. By 855C% consumer !age gro!th !as still stagnant 0e$ce t for bankers+ !ages1% an# eo le !ere leverage# to the ma$ !ith cre#it car#s an# secon# mortgages. ;fter the crash% housing #ebt coul# not be taken off the books% an# consumers reali<e# they ha# to ay #o!n #ebt. ;n# banks !ere not issuing cre#it. The economy sto e#. So instea# of #ealing !ith the reality of overleverage# families an# #eclining !ages% the government came u !ith the i#ea of encouraging more #ebt by offering subsi#ies for housing% cars an# a liances. That7s right**if the banks !on+t increase #ebt% let+s get the government to issue more #ebt. ;n# this time% instea# of just inclu#ing the mi##le class% the government #eci#e# to tri le len#ing to our youth to go to over rice# colleges for #egrees that #i# not lea# to jobs. )n a##ition to all this% the central banks of the !orl# rinte# I9H trillion in #ebt. This is not an economic recovery. Ben Bernanke is no hero. )nstea# of facing the real issue% !e injecte# chea #ebt like a heroine a##ict injects himself to feel better. While feeling better in the short*term% !e all kno! !hat ha ens to the a##ict an# to the market , they both crash. Why are things not getting better% in a##ition to the above*mentione# reasons( Why are cor orations not investing in the future( To /aul Ryan% the roblem is too high ta$es an# too much regulation an# the ;&;. Nothing coul# be more !rong. Those issues are small !hen com are# to the fact that cor orations kno! that the bottom 45> is becoming oorer an# has fe!er cre#it o tions. With this in min#% they are not e$ an#ing% because there is no mi##le class e$ ansion. That is !hy cor orations are not investing. What are cor orations #oing( :irst% they are using chea cre#it to re urchase stocks to give an illusion of rofit gro!th. No rofit gro!th% no big !ages. Secon#% they are buying assets an# merging to kee costs #o!n !ithout having to innovate. :inally% they are fin#ing !ays to kee lenty of cash to survive the ne$t crash. What are the to 85> of the o ulation #oing( They are buying har# assets to rotect against losing value of the chea ening #ollar through ME rograms. Stocks are going u not because they are a goo# value you% but because investors #on7t !ant to bet on cash. No! the stock market has reache# such lofty levels that it+s become a game of musical chairs. When you rint so much money% nobo#y !ant to hol# it unless it+s given to you for free by the fe#s an# the ublic. 2o! #oes this en#( We can see the im act that ME is alrea#y having% in that the to 85> buys assets to rotect its !ealth. This creates inflation that e$cee#s !ages for the other 45>% an# s en#ing #ecreases. The o osite of !hat Bernanke an# Yellen suggest. We get clues from other large countries like &hina% )n#ia an# other ;sian economies% !here eo le buy gol# an# ro erty to rotect !ealth , they #o not increase urchasing #ue to inflation. The tren# is clear% but the timing coul# be five to 8= years. We !ill continue to go through erio#s of inflation an#

#eflation. .eflation !ill !in a large battle in the ne$t =*95 years or so% then the rinting resses !ill really begin. )t may seem like a long time% but it has been almost seven years since this crisis began. ;nother =*95 is nothing. "ur government% along !ith governments aroun# the !orl#% is #oing nothing about the tren#s ut for!ar# in this a er. No country is in more #enial than Ka an% as it refuses to #eal !ith massive #emogra hic issues. )ts current ;benomics has nearly #ouble# the stock market% but its 8H5> #ebt to -./ !ill force ;be to !ar. ; very scary thought% but it can+t #evalue the yen to infinity an# e$ ect -ermany an# the rest of e$ ort Euro e an# &hina to sit by an# say% DNo roblem. We !ill let you #evalue your currency against ours an# take all the jobs from us you !ant.E ;t the moment there are t!o economies. The to 85> are living !ell an# all looks !ell. The bottom 45> are in utter stagnation. This tren# is not changing for a long*time% unless lea#ershi sho!s u some!here. But !here !ill it come from( The o!erful elites fight not to hel us but to kee control of their iece of the ie. Some ieces of ie are bigger than others% but a mi##le class government ension !ith healthcare is much bigger than 45> of the country. )s it like the 9>( No% but still better than most. This is not the meaning of ublic service. There is goo# ne!s. The mi##le class can reinvent itself to romote community instea# of #ebt consumerism. The move back to the city !ill shorten #istances an# ut more em hasis on activities that are more interactive an# less e$ ensive an# consum tion*base#. /artici ating in community theater% versus aying to see rofessionals in big ro#uctions. Watching House of Cards at night instea# of everyone going to a I8= movie 0ticket% o corn an# o 1. .eflation in content #isbursement is moving beyon# ;ma<on% as eo le are e$changing free #igital content an# setting u book e$changes on every block. )nstea# of consuming entertainment% eo le are becoming the entertainment. 3aclemore7s hit DThriftsho E is just another social commentary on the rejection of the I955 t*shirt an# the #estruction of the negative stigma on recycling usable goo#s. The government infrastructure is not re are# for the revenue that !ill be nee#e# to fun# the military an# 3e#icai#. 'iberals !ill !ee as big government !ill be #ismantle# an# see ho! they create# a huge #e en#ency on government as certain grou s !ill not be re are# for the changes coming. &onservatives !ill have to face the fact that the military com le$ hel e# bankru t the nation an# #i# nothing more than take innocent bloo#. ;&; !ill en# being #eflationary% as eo le choose to o t out of !ork an# let the government ay for healthcare% as they !ork just enough to cover e$ enses in communities that are car free. 2o! much #o you nee# to make if you have no car or insurance ayments% you live in community% an# you can share everything inclu#ing the C.66 for Netfli$. /eo le+s #iets are changing so much that eating out ceases to be art of the bu#get. Wall Street7s move to eliminate jobs is soon to backfire on cor orate ;merica% as there is no one left to buy% e$ce t the to ?uintile. The bottom 45> !ill accommo#ate themselves to this ne! lifestyle% as instea# of buying a liances an# cars% the ; le i/hone 85 !ill be their biggest lifetime urchase. ;s this #eflationary shift occurs governments !ill anic as meeting the #eman# of the babyboomers !ill not be ossible. -overnments !ill be force# to rint like its like it never has before. This !ill only make things !orse. The #ay of reconing !ill arrive cause if every nation on the earth is rinitng money to buy resouces ho! !ill this be sustainable. )t !ill be a mess. &hanges by the millineals !ill ha en an# the boomers !ill get cut off in some ty e of cou . This story en#s !ell for the US% as it has a history of facing reality from the &ivil War to &ivil Rights. By this time% a ne! trans ortation system !ill be built nation!i#e. Ne! green technology !ill take over. Some ty e of fusion energy !ill revolutioni<e business. &lou# com uting !ill reali<e its romise% an# small com anies !ill have just as much o!er as big com anies. ; ne! free*market economy !ill emerge% !here small% local conce ts !ill trum large bran#s. Su ly chains !ill become ublic instea# of ro rietary% as they are no!. ;ma<on !ill rovi#e the consumer the ability to buy overseas an# locally at the same rice that Wal3art buys. Wal3art !ill come to e$ist not as a retailer but as a su ly chain com etitor to ;ma<on as eo le move back to cities as such outlets become obsolete. &ostco !ill be the only #estination large retailer% as it !ill be the lace to buy large items. )ts business mo#el% !hich uts em loyees first% !ill osition itself as the only one to survive in this #eflationary environment. Ne! ta$ olicy !ill encourage gro!th an# benefit har# !ork an# innovation% !here eo le get !hat they ut in. 2o!ever% there !ill be lenty of rich eo le% but in a more s oils to the victor system% but not a !inner take all% as it is to#ay.

Technically% interest rates coul# go nominally negative% as some% like 'arry 0D)*get*everything*!rongE1 Summers has suggeste# is an o tion. Such a #ecision !oul# be met !ith such turmoil that it !oul# not even be trie#. )t !oul#n7t !ork any!ay. 2o!ever this is not germane to the thesis. We are living in a !orl# of real negative rates no!. ) #on+t e$ ect rates to go u % either. They !ill stay range*boun# for at least the ne$t five to ten years. The :e#% at this oint% is #etermine# to

maintain the bubble an# neither o it nor gro! it unsustainably. Rates can7t go u too much% or the #ebt service on the national #ebt !oul# reach an unsustainable level. ) am rojecting lo! interest rates for much longer than most economists e$ ect.