Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Programa
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Introduccin
Principios del Valor Econmico
Modelado Geolgico
Optimizacin de Pit
Nested Pits Juego de Cascaras
Efectos de Variaciones en las Variables Econmicas
Anlisis de Limites Resistentes
Otras Razones que no son Lucro Total
Estudios de Casos
Conclusin
1. Introduccin
Precisin de Minera
Mida con calibrador
Marque con tiza
Corta con un hacha
1. Introduccin
Todo el planeamiento es basado en modelos
Modelos de cuerpo de minado
Modelos de recuperacin
Modelos de flujo de caja
1. Introduccin
Todos los modelos estn errados!
Para hacer un mejor modelo
Evitar parcialidades
Minimizar Errores
Utilizar Metodologa Apropiada
Investigar Alternativas Comparar Resultados
Aplicar comprobaciones simples
1. Introduccin
3. Modelado Geolgico
Geologa
Drill Hole Data.
Informacin
Geolgica.
1. Introduccin
Estimacin de Recurso/Reserva
Enfoque:
Definicin de Precios
Metales
Por peso
La Bolsa
Ultimos 3 aos promedio corriente
Carbn
Ubicacin, BTU, Impurezas
Hierro
BHP, Vale, Rio Tinto y productores chino de acero
Minerales Industriales
Precios locales y control de calidad
Ejemplos
Mina a Cielo Abierto con molino y autoclaves: CapEx = 96,500 C 0.778 (8)
Mina a Cielo Abierto con molino-CIL: CapEx = 50,000 C 0.745 (9)
Mina a Cielo Abierto con molino-CIP: CapEx = 372,000 C 0.540 (10)
Mina a Cielo Abierto con molino Merrill Crowe: CapEx = 414,000 C 0.584 (11)
Actividades de
Procesamiento
Perforacin
Voladura
Carguo
Acarreo
Comminution
Beneficiacion
P * R * G * Q = Q * (CM + CP)
P * R * G = CM + CP
G = (CM + CP )
P*R
G = ( CP )
P*R
Rev = P * R * G * Q
C = Q * (CM + CP)
C = Q * (CM)
Cm = Costo de Minado
CP = Costo de Proceso
Rev = Ingresos (Revenue)
$10
1.0
g/t
$2 $5
Precio $10/gm
Costo de Minado
$2/ton
Costo de Proc.
$5/ton
Ingresos
$10
Beneficio
$3
$5
0.5
g/t
$2 $5
Precio $10/gm
Costo de Minado
$2/ton
Costo de Proc.
$5/ton
Ingresos
$5
Renta
$?
Process >
Waste >
$-2
$-2
$7
0.7
g/t
$2 $5
Precio
$10/gm
Costo de Minado
$2/ton
Costo de Proc.
$5/ton
Ingresos
$7
Renta
$?
Process >
Waste >
$0
$-2
$6
0.6
g/t
$2 $5
Precio
$10/gm
Costo de Minado
$2/ton
Costo de Proc.
$5/ton
Ingresos
$7
Renta
$?
Process >
Waste >
$ -1
$ -2
Limitacin de Capacidad
La Mina
El Proceso
El Mercado
4. Optimizacin de Pit
Diseo Econmico de Pit
Uso de herramientas matemticas basadas para
ayudar en el diseo del Pit que se va maximizar
rentabilidad.
25
4. Optimizacin de Pit
Diseo Econmico del Pit - Software
Heurstica
Cono Flotante
Korobov 1973
Mtodos 2D
Lerchs-Grossmann
Mtodos Bounding
Placers Bound
26
4. Optimizacin de Pit
Diseo Econmico del Pit - Software
Optimizadores
27
4. Optimizacin de Pit
Diseo Econmico del Pit - Software
Bounding KEY POINT
During optimal pit limit analysis a more
constrained pit will always be completely
contained (or coincident) with a less constrained
pit
28
5. Nested Pits
Originalmente Incremento de Precios
Tedioso
Despacio
29
5. Nested Pits
Ultimate Pit Problem
Cmo elegir el mejor ultimate pit (tajo final) econmico
Ensayo y error, manualmente analizado
Hace 35 aos: algoritmos
Varios avances
No hay una solucin definitiva
Algoritmos Principales
Lerchs-Grossman
Floating Cone
Whittle
Algoritmo de Lerchs-Grossman
Historia
No se utilizaba en la Mineria
Modelo de Bloques Econmicos como Nodos
Nodos
Possible Pits
Algoritmo de Lerchs-Grossman
Ejemplo
Seccin Terica
Lnea de Topo
Blocos
Ejemplo
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
13
13
=0
-1
= -2
= -2
=0
35
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
13
13
=0
-1
=2
=0
36
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
13
-1
13
-2
= +1
1
=0
37
Lerchs-Grossman Algorithm
42
Principio de Satisficing
Origen del Trmino -- HERBERT A. SIMON, Psychology Review 1956
Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment
43
Ore.
Waste.
Metal/ Mineral Recuperado.
Tipos de Rocas.
Resultados Econmicos
Costo de Minado.
Costo de Procesamiento.
Ingresos.
VAN.
Clculos de Prueba
45
Oro: $6,100/ton
Costo de Minera: $0.60/ton
Costo de Procesamiento (todas las rocas): $2.25/ton
G&A: $1.00/ton
Mina A
500.000
450.000
400.000
NPV
350.000
300.000
250.000
200.000
150.000
100.000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
LG Pit
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
LG Pit vs
LG Pit vs NPV
500.000
450.000
400.000
NPV
350.000
300.000
250.000
200.000
150.000
100.000
0%
10%
20%
30%
LG Pit
40%
50%
LG Pit
49
50
Resultados LG
Analizar Resultados LG
Hojas de clculo y Macros que optimizan el anlisis
Seleccin de los mejores pits para un anlisis ms
profundo
Anlis ms profundo:
Mine Design
Rampas
Equipo
Costo
Production Scheduling
Stripping Ratio
7,00
6,00
5,00
Cum. Rev. SR
4,00
Cum. SR
SR
3,00
2,00
1,00
0,00
0
10
20
30
40
LG Pits
50
60
70
80
Mina A
$/t Ore x LG Pit
8,000
7,000
6,000
$/t
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
LG Pits
Incremental
Revenue
Cost
Cumulative
Profit
Revenue
Cost
Profit
50%
9. Estudios de Casos
LG Phases Report
Rock
tons
Profit/TotTons ORE
Cum Rock
Waste Tons
386,008
21,953
834,455
143,049
1,933,185
346,346
3,480,911
656,521
3,881,530
188,982
4,448,296
247,786
24,176,369
1,749,877
26,411,228
1,624,893
27,322,489
576,054
27,783,384
318,730
29,223,714
1,080,722
30,241,327
612,979
32,236,435
1,523,818
32,849,786
431,385
33,279,448
317,303
35,364,368
1,442,440
42,067,858
5,471,088
42,341,093
197,640
42,790,732
351,204
43,603,719
612,433
44,024,837
344,320
44,470,595
329,696
Pit 1 ( 1.00%)
Pit 2 ( 2.00%)
Pit 3 ( 3.00%)
Pit 4 ( 4.00%)
Pit 5 ( 5.00%)
Pit 6 ( 6.00%)
Pit 16 ( 16.00%)
Pit 17 ( 17.00%)
Pit 18 ( 18.00%)
Pit 19 ( 19.00%)
Pit 20 ( 20.00%)
Pit 21 ( 21.00%)
Pit 22 ( 22.00%)
Pit 23 ( 23.00%)
Pit 24 ( 24.00%)
Pit 25 ( 25.00%)
Pit 26 ( 26.00%)
Pit 27 ( 27.00%)
Pit 28 ( 28.00%)
Pit 29 ( 29.00%)
Pit 30 ( 30.00%)
Pit 31 ( 31.00%)
386,008
448,447
1,098,730
1,547,726
400,619
566,766
2,439,751
2,234,859
911,261
460,895
1,440,330
1,017,613
1,995,108
613,351
429,662
2,084,920
6,703,490
273,235
449,639
812,987
421,118
445,758
Pit 32 ( 32.00%)
Pit 33 ( 33.00%)
Pit 34 ( 34.00%)
Pit 35 ( 35.00%)
Pit 36 ( 36.00%)
Pit 37 ( 37.00%)
Pit 38 ( 38.00%)
Pit 39 ( 39.00%)
Pit 40 ( 40.00%)
Pit 41 ( 41.00%)
Pit 42 ( 42.00%)
Pit 43 ( 43.00%)
Pit 44 ( 44.00%)
Pit 45 ( 45.00%)
Pit 46 ( 46.00%)
Pit 47 ( 47.00%)
Pit 48 ( 48.00%)
409,204
453,638
1,082,316
711,887
544,019
509,701
137,436
1,769,364
814,367
270,718
377,370
521,229
140,409
85,566
675,986
207,924
258,314
44,879,799
45,333,437
46,415,753
47,127,640
47,671,659
48,181,360
48,318,796
50,088,160
50,902,527
51,173,245
51,550,615
52,071,844
52,212,253
52,297,819
52,973,805
53,181,729
53,440,043
Pit 49 ( 49.00%)
10,672,988
64,113,031
AUAVG
tons
6,017,908
13,293,880
25,578,594
30,466,675
6,788,752
7,552,126
17,381,442
14,706,847
4,937,647
2,481,349
8,116,236
4,277,979
10,119,246
2,699,863
1,831,474
7,925,416
28,850,468
984,809
1,688,983
2,775,354
1,494,078
1,366,113
15.59
29.64
23.28
19.68
16.95
13.32
7.12
6.58
5.42
5.38
5.63
4.20
5.07
4.40
4.26
3.80
4.30
3.60
3.76
3.41
3.55
3.06
364,055
305,398
752,384
891,205
211,637
318,980
689,874
609,966
335,207
142,165
359,608
404,634
471,290
181,966
112,359
642,480
1,232,402
75,595
98,435
200,554
76,798
116,062
335,013
328,535
800,876
517,802
448,860
393,803
107,625
1,280,991
694,465
179,306
256,298
397,651
101,578
64,338
483,060
155,849
215,477
1,293,315
1,238,655
2,867,527
1,757,824
1,480,047
1,235,807
326,887
3,717,179
1,920,793
476,426
643,824
973,094
240,193
145,361
1,037,984
317,717
425,478
3.16
2.73
2.65
2.47
2.72
2.42
2.38
2.10
2.36
1.76
1.71
1.87
1.71
1.70
1.54
1.53
1.65
74,191
125,103
281,440
194,085
95,159
115,898
29,811
488,373
119,902
91,412
121,072
123,578
38,831
21,228
192,926
52,075
42,837
9,417,044
18,312,803
1.72
1,255,944
Cum Ore
oz
364,055
669,453
1,421,837
2,313,042
2,524,679
2,843,659
9,368,719
9,978,685
10,313,892
10,456,057
10,815,665
11,220,299
11,691,589
11,873,555
11,985,914
12,628,394
13,860,796
13,936,391
14,034,826
14,235,380
14,312,178
14,428,240
AUAVG R
oz
Rev
14,150
21,835
45,342
54,428
12,470
15,564
37,465
32,512
13,496
6,337
18,775
14,138
24,225
7,601
4,994
24,775
69,306
3,036
4,630
8,432
3,969
4,545
12,028
18,560
38,541
46,264
10,600
13,229
31,845
27,635
11,472
5,387
15,959
12,017
20,591
6,461
4,245
21,058
58,910
2,580
3,935
7,167
3,373
3,863
Incr Strip
0.06
0.47
0.46
0.74
0.89
0.78
2.54
2.66
1.72
2.24
3.01
1.51
3.23
2.37
2.82
2.25
4.44
2.61
3.57
3.05
4.48
2.84
14,502,431
14,627,534
14,908,974
15,103,059
15,198,218
15,314,116
15,343,927
15,832,300
15,952,202
16,043,614
16,164,686
16,288,264
16,327,095
16,348,323
16,541,249
16,593,324
16,636,161
3,662
4,567
10,500
6,909
4,528
4,524
1,188
16,509
6,044
2,704
3,636
4,371
1,247
716.8251
5,966
1,709
1,783
3,113
3,882
8,925
5,873
3,849
3,845
1,010
14,032
5,137
2,298
3,091
3,716
1,060
609.3013
5,071
1,452
1,516
4.52
2.63
2.85
2.67
4.72
3.40
3.61
2.62
5.79
1.96
2.12
3.22
2.62
3.03
2.50
2.99
5.03
2.09
2.10
2.11
2.12
2.14
2.15
2.15
2.16
2.19
2.19
2.19
2.20
2.20
2.20
2.20
2.21
2.21
5.00
5.01
5.06
5.17
5.26
5.27
5.31
5.32
5.61
5.60
5.68
5.78
5.86
5.89
5.90
6.07
6.11
70.9%
71.5%
72.9%
73.9%
74.3%
74.9%
75.0%
77.4%
78.0%
78.5%
79.1%
79.7%
79.9%
80.0%
80.9%
81.2%
81.4%
55.7%
56.3%
57.6%
58.5%
59.2%
59.8%
60.0%
62.2%
63.2%
63.5%
64.0%
64.6%
64.8%
64.9%
65.7%
66.0%
66.3%
77.6%
78.0%
79.0%
79.7%
80.1%
80.5%
80.6%
82.2%
82.8%
83.0%
83.4%
83.8%
83.9%
84.0%
84.5%
84.7%
84.8%
96.2%
96.3%
96.6%
96.8%
96.9%
97.0%
97.0%
97.4%
97.5%
97.6%
97.6%
97.7%
97.7%
97.7%
97.8%
97.8%
97.9%
17,892,105
65,719
55,861
7.50
2.58
6.12
87.5%
79.6%
91.0%
99.1%
54
Pit 1 ( 1.00%)
Pit 2 ( 2.00%)
Pit 3 ( 3.00%)
Pit 4 ( 4.00%)
Pit 5 ( 5.00%)
Pit 6 ( 6.00%)
Pit 16 ( 16.00%)
Pit 17 ( 17.00%)
Pit 18 ( 18.00%)
Pit 19 ( 19.00%)
Pit 20 ( 20.00%)
Pit 21 ( 21.00%)
Pit 22 ( 22.00%)
Pit 23 ( 23.00%)
Pit 24 ( 24.00%)
Pit 25 ( 25.00%)
Pit 26 ( 26.00%)
Pit 27 ( 27.00%)
Pit 28 ( 28.00%)
Pit 29 ( 29.00%)
Pit 30 ( 30.00%)
Pit 31 ( 31.00%)
Pit 32 ( 32.00%)
Pit 33 ( 33.00%)
Pit 34 ( 34.00%)
Pit 35 ( 35.00%)
Pit 36 ( 36.00%)
Pit 37 ( 37.00%)
Pit 38 ( 38.00%)
Pit 39 ( 39.00%)
Pit 40 ( 40.00%)
Rock
ORE
tons
tons
386,008
448,447
1,098,730
1,547,726
400,619
566,766
2,439,751
2,234,859
911,261
460,895
1,440,330
1,017,613
1,995,108
613,351
429,662
2,084,920
6,703,490
273,235
449,639
812,987
421,118
445,758
409,204
453,638
1,082,316
711,887
544,019
509,701
137,436
1,769,364
814,367
AUAVG
Cum Ore
oz
364,055
364,055
305,398
669,453
752,384
1,421,837
891,205
2,313,042
211,637
2,524,679
318,980
2,843,659
689,874
9,368,719
609,966
9,978,685
335,207
10,313,892
142,165
10,456,057
359,608
10,815,665
404,634
11,220,299
471,290
11,691,589
181,966
11,873,555
112,359
11,985,914
642,480
12,628,394
1,232,402
13,860,796
75,595
13,936,391
98,435
14,034,826
200,554
14,235,380
76,798
14,312,178
116,062
14,428,240
74,191
14,502,431
125,103
14,627,534
281,440
14,908,974
194,085
15,103,059
95,159
15,198,218
115,898
15,314,116
29,811
15,343,927
488,373
15,832,300
119,902
15,952,202
AUAVG R
oz
14,150
21,835
45,342
54,428
12,470
15,564
37,465
32,512
13,496
6,337
18,775
14,138
24,225
7,601
4,994
24,775
69,306
3,036
4,630
8,432
3,969
4,545
3,662
4,567
10,500
6,909
4,528
4,524
1,188
16,509
6,044
12,028
18,560
38,541
46,264
10,600
13,229
31,845
27,635
11,472
5,387
15,959
12,017
20,591
6,461
4,245
21,058
58,910
2,580
3,935
7,167
3,373
3,863
3,113
3,882
8,925
5,873
3,849
3,845
1,010
14,032
5,137
Rev
Incr Strip
0.06
0.47
0.46
0.74
0.89
0.78
2.54
2.66
1.72
2.24
3.01
1.51
3.23
2.37
2.82
2.25
4.44
2.61
3.57
3.05
4.48
2.84
4.52
2.63
2.85
2.67
4.72
3.40
3.61
2.62
5.79
Tot ton/oz
Cum Strip Cum Strip Pct Ore
Pct Rock Pct Au
Pct NPV Au
0.06
2.94
1.8%
0.5%
1.3%
2.4% 27.28
0.25
2.99
3.3%
1.0%
3.4%
7.7% 23.19
0.36
3.03
7.0%
2.4%
7.6%
17.1% 23.77
0.50
3.13
11.3%
4.3%
12.7%
27.5% 25.64
0.54
3.25
12.3%
4.8%
13.9%
29.7% 26.19
0.56
3.28
13.9%
5.5%
15.4%
32.1% 27.16
1.58
4.00
45.8%
30.0%
54.7%
84.3% 41.54
1.65
4.09
48.8%
32.8%
57.7%
86.6% 42.98
1.65
4.17
50.4%
33.9%
59.0%
87.3% 43.50
1.66
4.26
51.1%
34.5%
59.6%
87.7% 43.80
1.70
4.28
52.9%
36.3%
61.3%
88.8% 44.74
1.70
4.33
54.9%
37.5%
62.7%
89.4% 45.32
1.76
4.46
57.2%
40.0%
64.9%
90.7% 46.62
1.77
4.52
58.1%
40.8%
65.7%
91.0% 46.99
1.78
4.57
58.6%
41.3%
66.1%
91.3% 47.26
1.80
4.59
61.8%
43.9%
68.5%
92.2% 48.52
2.04
4.78
67.8%
52.2%
75.0%
95.3% 52.70
2.04
4.85
68.2%
52.5%
75.2%
95.4% 52.84
2.05
4.87
68.6%
53.1%
75.7%
95.5% 53.10
2.06
4.89
69.6%
54.1%
76.5%
95.8% 53.55
2.08
4.95
70.0%
54.6%
76.8%
96.0% 53.80
2.08
4.96
70.6%
55.2%
77.3%
96.1% 54.05
2.09
5.00
70.9%
55.7%
77.6%
96.2% 54.30
2.10
5.01
71.5%
56.3%
78.0%
96.3% 54.55
2.11
5.06
72.9%
57.6%
79.0%
96.6% 55.16
2.12
5.17
73.9%
58.5%
79.7%
96.8% 55.55
2.14
5.26
74.3%
59.2%
80.1%
96.9% 55.89
2.15
5.27
74.9%
59.8%
80.5%
97.0% 56.19
2.15
5.31
75.0%
60.0%
80.6%
97.0% 56.27
2.16
5.32
77.4%
62.2%
82.2%
97.4% 57.23
2.19
5.61
78.0%
63.2%
82.8%
97.5% 57.76
55
9. Estudios de Casos
Mina B
Cobre: $1,100/ton
Costo de Minera: $1.15/ton
Costo de Proc.: $2.03/ton
500.000
Costo de G&A: $0.19/ton 450.000
LG Pit vs NPV
400.000
350.000
300.000
NPV
250.000
200.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
0
0%
10%
20%
30%
LG Pit
40%
50%
60%
LG Pit vs
Mina C
Oro: $6,100/ton
Costo de Minado: $1.15/ton
Costo de Proc.: $2.03/ton
Costo de G&A: $0.19/ton
LG Pit vs NPV
90.000
80.000
70.000
60.000
NPV
9. Estudios de Casos
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
LG Pit
50%
60%
70%
LG Pit vs NPV
Diseo Resistente
Modelos siempre estn errneos
Compensa para falta de conocimiento
Minimizar Riesgo y Mantenga Utilidades
Gracias
Q&A