Chap 16

UNIT 5
526
SOCIAL CHANGE
Enr i chment Readi ngs
Chapt er 16
Populat ion and
Urbanizat ion
Chapt er 17
Collect ive Behavior
and Social Change
Chapter 16 David Stipp
Life Expectancy: Surprising
Demographic Trends
page 564
Chapter 17 Report: Falling
Through the Net
page 600
527
Population and
Urbanization
Population and
Urbanization
CHAPTER 16
528
529
S e c t i o n s
Le a r n i n g Ob j e c t i v e s
1. The Dynamics of
Demography
2. World Population
3. The Urban Transition
4. Urban Ecology
After readi ng thi s chapter, you wi ll be able to
i denti fy the three populati on processes.
relate the i deas of Thomas Malthus to
populati on changes.
predi ct world populati on trends.
trace the development of prei ndustri al
and modern ci ti es.
compare and contrast four theori es of ci ty
growth.
Your
Sociological
Imagination
U
S
I
N
G
S
uppose you read the followi ng story i n
your local newspaper.
On October 12, 1999, the United Nations of-
ficially declared that the worlds population
had reached six billion. United Nations
Secretary-General Kofi Annan was visiting
Sarajevo, Bosnia, when the historic mile-
stone was reached. To symbolize the event,
he chose a baby boy born in a local clinic
at two minutes after midnight to be named
Baby Six Billion.
How bi g i s si x bi lli on? I f you counted a
hundred numbers every mi nute for ei ght
hours a day, fi ve days a week, i t would take
you fi ve hundred years to reach si x bi lli on!
According to Zero Population Growth
( ZPG) , the worldspopulation iscurrently
growing at a rate of 86 million people per
year. I f asked about the reason for thisrapid
world population growth, what would you say?
Like most people, you would probably refer to
the high birth rate in developing countries. You
could point out that every year, 94 million in-
fantsare born equal to the population of
Mexico or that every time you watch a half-
hour TV program, 4,860 infantsare born.
Thi s explanati on, however, i s only half
of the story. I t leaves out the other si de of
the equati on the death rate. The popula-
ti on i n these countri es i s growi ng rapi dly
because thei r bi rth rates remai n hi gh whi le
thei r death rates have dropped sharply,
thanks to modern medi ci ne, i mproved sani -
tati on, and better hygi ene. I n thi s chapter,
we look at demography and di scuss why
thi s i ssue i s i mportant to soci ologi sts.
Chapter Overview
Visit the Sociology and You Web site at
soc.glencoe.com and click on Chapter 16
Chapter Overviews to preview chapter
information.
530 Unit 5 Social Change
The
Changing
Population
S
oci ologi sts study
populati on be-
cause i t affects soci al
structure, especi ally i n
crowded areas. T hey
look for patterns that
wi ll help them under-
stand and predi ct how
groups of people wi ll
behave. For example, they mi ght exami ne the relati onshi p between popula-
ti on growth and poli ti cs. We know that hi stori cally the growth of mi nori ti es
i n the Uni ted States has benefi ted Democrats more than Republi cans
( Ti lgrove, 1999) . But the si tuati on today i s di fferent wi th respect to Lati nos.
Now the largest mi nori ty i n the Uni ted States, Lati nos are not fi rmly ali gned
wi th ei ther poli ti cal party. Regardless of poli ti cal affi li ati on, the growth of mi -
nori ty populati ons affects how congressi onal di stri cts are drawn and i s one
reason why census taki ng can be a controversi al topi c. O r soci ologi sts mi ght
study trends i n populati on shi fts, such as the agi ng baby boomers, to help
plan for hospi tals and long-term nursi ng faci li ti es.
How do sociologists define population? A population i s a group of
people li vi ng i n a parti cular place at a speci fi ed ti me. The sci enti fi c study of
population is called demography ( demo i s a Greek word that means
people) . To study populati on, demographerslook at many factors, i ncludi ng
the number of people ( si ze) ; how and where they are located ( di stri buti on) ;
what groupsmake up the populati on ( composi ti on) ; and the agesrepresented
i n the populati on ( age structure) . Demographers also analyze three processes:
bi rth (fertility), death (mortality), and movement from one place to another
(migration). Major changesi n populati onscome from one or all of these three
processes. I n the followi ng secti ons, we look at the factorsand processesthat
affect populati ons.
D
emography is the scien-
tific study of population.
The collection of population
data is very important today,
in part because of its use by
government and industry.
Demographers consider
three population processes
when looking at population
change: fertility, mortality,
and migration.
Section
Preview
Section
Preview
Sect ion
Sect ion
1
1
The Dynamics of Demography
K e y T e r m s
population fertility rate crude death rate
demography total fertility rate infant mortality rate
fertility mortality migration
fecundity life span gross migration rate
crude birth rate life expectancy net migration rate
Social structures reflect the ability of the land to support
people.
population
a group of pe ople living in
a particular place at a spe ci-
fie d time
demography
the scie ntific study of
population
Chapter 16 Population and Urbanization 531
Fertility
Fertility measures the actual number of chi ldren born to a woman or to
a populati on of women. Fecundity i s the potenti al number of chi ldren that
could be born i f every woman reproduced as often as bi ology allowed.
O bvi ously, ferti li ty rates are much lower than fecundi ty rates. The hi ghest re-
ali sti c fecundi ty rate you could expect from a soci ety would be about fi fteen
bi rths per woman. The record ferti li ty rate for a group probably i s held by
the Hutteri tes, who mi grated a century ago from Swi tzerland to North and
South Dakota and Canada. Hutteri te women i n the 1930s were gi vi ng bi rth
to an average of more than twelve chi ldren each ( Westoff and Westoff, 1971) .
The Hutteri tes gi ve us a good esti mate of fecundi ty, because they are the best
example of natural fertility the number of chi ldren born to women i n the
absence of consci ous bi rth control ( Weeks, 1999) .
How is fertility measured? The crude birth rate i s the annual num-
ber of li ve bi rths per one thousand members of a populati on. The crude bi rth
rate vari es consi derably from one country to another. The crude bi rth rate for
the Uni ted States i s fi fteen per one thousand. Ni ger, i n West Afri ca, experi -
ences a very hi gh crude bi rth rate of fi fty-three per one thousand; and
Germany, a very low rate of ni ne per one thousand.
To calculate the crude bi rth rate, di vi de the annual number of li ve bi rths
by the total populati on and multi ply that number by 1, 000.
TEXT ART ( to be i nserted later)
The term crude i n thi s case means rough, or approxi mate. The crude bi rth
rate i s approxi mate because i t i s based on the enti re populati on rather than
just women of chi ld-beari ng age. I t also i gnores the age structure of the pop-
ulati on. Both sex and age affect the number of li ve bi rths i n any gi ven year.
Consequently, i n addi ti on to the crude bi rth rate, demographers use the
fertility rate the annual number of li ve bi rths per one thousand women
fertility
a me asure of the numbe r of
childre n born to a woman or a
population of wome n
fecundity
the maximum rate at which
wome n can physically produce
childre n
Crude Birth Rate = x 1,000
Number of Live Births
Total Population
How might fertility drugs affect the
crude birth rate?
crude birth rate
the annual numbe r of live
births pe r one thousand
me mbe rs of a population
fertility rate
the annual numbe r of live
births pe r one thousand
wome n age d fifte e n to
forty-four
aged fi fteen to forty-four. The rate that i s easi est to use i s the total fertility
rate, or the average number of chi ldren born to a woman duri ng her li fe-
ti me. Currently, total ferti li ty rates i n the world range from 5.2 i n Afri ca to 1.4
i n Europe.
What other factors influence birth rate? The bi rth rate of a popula-
ti on i s i nfluenced by both health and soci al factors. For example, wi despread
di sease ( especi ally rubella, or German measles) causes the bi rth rate to de-
cli ne because many pregnanci es end i n mi scarri ages. Soci al factors affecti ng
the bi rth rate i nclude the average age at marri age, the level of economi c de-
velopment, the avai labi li ty and use of contracepti ves and aborti on, the num-
ber of women i n the labor force, the educati onal status of women, and soci al
atti tudes toward reproducti on.
The U.S. bi rth rate i n recent years has shown a steady decli ne. More cou-
ples today consi der two chi ldren or even one chi ld a desi rable number.
Work patterns have affected the bi rth rate as well. More Ameri can women
today are postponi ng havi ng chi ldren unti l thei r late twenti es and early thi r-
ti es. As a result, women are havi ng fewer chi ldren.
total fertility rate
ave rage numbe r of childre n
born to a woman during he r
life time
Interpreting theMap
1. Whi ch states have the smallest concentrati ons of young people?Can you explai n why?
2. From thi s map, can you make any generali zati on about the Ameri can populati on?What addi ti onal
i nformati on would help you to further descri be the age structure of the U.S. populati on?Get that
i nformati on for your state.
29% or more
28%28.9%
26%27.9%
24%25.9%
23%23.9%
< 23%
Percentage of Population Under 18
District of
Columbia
Percentage of
Population Under 18
Many hi gh school students feel that as
members of soci ety they are not gi ven
enough respect by soci ety. O ne rea-
son could be that there are too few
people i n thi s age bracket to i nflu-
ence poli cy makers. Thi s map shows
the percentage of each states popula-
ti on aged ei ghteen years of age.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2001.
Mortality
Mortality refers to death. To analyze patterns of mortali ty wi thi n a pop-
ulati on, soci ologi sts look at life span and life expectancy. Life span i s the
most advanced age to whi ch humans can survi ve. We know for sure of a
Japanese man who li ved nearly 121 years, but few people even approach thi s
age. Life expectancy i s the average number of years that persons i n a gi ven
populati on born at a parti cular ti me can expect to li ve. World li fe expectancy
i s si xty-seven years ( World Population Data Sheet, 2001) .
How is mortality measured? The crude death rate i sfi gured by di vi d-
i ng the annual number of deaths by the total populati on and multi plyi ng by
1,000. Li ke the crude bi rth rate, the crude death rate vari es wi dely throughout
the world. The worldwi de average crude death rate i s ni ne per one thousand
persons. Looki ng at speci fi c regi ons of the world, the death rate vari es from a
low of si x per thousand i n Lati n Ameri ca to a hi gh of fourteen per thousand
i n Afri ca and Hungary. The death rate i n the Uni ted States i s about ni ne per
thousand ( World Population Data Sheet, 2001) .
Demographersare also i nterested i n the vari ati onsi n death ratesfor speci fi c
groups. They have devi sed age-specific death rates to measure the number of
deaths per thousand persons i n a speci fi c age group, such as fi fteen- to ni ne-
teen-year-oldsor si xty- to si xty-four-year-olds. Thi sallowsthem to compare the
ri sk of death to membersof di fferent groups. Although death eventually comes
to everyone, the rate at whi ch i t occursdependson many factors, i ncludi ng age,
sex, race, occupati on, soci al class, standard of li vi ng, and health care.
The infant mortality rate the number of deaths among i nfants under
one year of age per one thousand li ve bi rths i s consi dered a good i ndi cator
of the health status of any group. Thi s i s because i nfants are the fi rst to suffer
mortality
de aths within a population
life span
the most advance d age to
which humans can survive
life expectancy
the ave rage numbe r of ye ars
that pe rsons in a give n
population born at a particular
time can e xpe ct to live
crude death rate
the annual numbe r of de aths
pe r thousand me mbe rs of a
population
infant mortality rate
the annual numbe r of de aths
among infants unde r one ye ar
of age pe r one thousand live
births
This Brazilian mother attends a local clinic to get health care for her infant.
from a lack of good medi cal care and sani tati on. I nfants i n developi ng coun-
tri esare almost ei ght ti mesmore li kely to di e before thei r fi rst bi rthday than i n-
fants i n the developed nati ons. Worki ng together, the bi rth rates, ferti li ty rates,
and mortali ty rates determi ne the world populati on growth. ( See Fi gure 16.1.)
Migration
Migration refers to the movement of people from one geographi c area
to another. Mi grati on can occur wi thi n a country or between countri es. An
example of mi grati on from country to country i s the resettlement of Asi an
refugees from Vi etnam and Cambodi a i n countri es around the world. Many
of the refugees who settle i n the Uni ted States i n one parti cular ci ty or regi on
later move to another regi on, thus becomi ng i nternal mi grants. Anyone who
moves from one part of the country to another say, from New York to
Ari zona i s engagi ng i n i nternal mi grati on.
How is migration measured? The gross migration rate i nto or out
of an area i s the number of persons per one thousand members of a popu-
lati on who enter or leave a geographi c area i n a gi ven year. Net migration i s
the di fference between the number of people enteri ng and leavi ng an area.
Thus, the net migration rate i s the annual i ncrease or decrease per one
thousand members of a populati on resulti ng from movement i nto and out of
the populati on. I n 1999, for example, the Uni ted States had a net mi grati on
rate of about 3.0 per one thousand populati on. That i s, 3.0 more persons per
one thousand populati on entered the country than left the country. I t i s also
possi ble of course, to have a negati ve net mi grati on rate showi ng more peo-
ple overall left an area than entered i t.
When the U.S. Census Bureau reports mi grati on rates, i t refers only to the
number of legal i mmi grants. Many people vi olate i mmi grati on laws to enter
the Uni ted States. I n the 1970s, the i ssue of i llegal i mmi grati on pri mari ly
from Lati n Ameri can and Cari bbean countri es became a major concern and
conti nues to be controversi al today. There are no preci se stati sti cs on ei ther
the i llegal i mmi grati on rate or the total number of i llegal ali ens li vi ng i n the
Uni ted States. Esti mates of the current number of i llegal ali ens range from
three mi lli on to si x mi lli on persons.
migration
the move me nt of pe ople from
one ge ographic are a to
anothe r
gross migration rate
the number of persons per year
per one thousand members of
a population who enter or leave
a geographic area
net migration rate
the annual incre ase or
de cre ase pe r one thousand
me mbe rs of a population
re sulting from migration into
and out of the population
P
o
p
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l
a
t
i
o
n

(
i
n

b
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
8000 B.C. A.D. 1 1650 1850 1950 2000 2025 2050 2100 2150
Figure 16.1 World Population
Growth. This figure shows
estimated world population growth
to 2150. What factors do you think
led to the sharp rise in population
around 1850?
Source: Washi ngton, DC: Populati on
Reference Bureau.
Another
Pl ace
Another
The Graying of Japan
Bi rth rates and death rates have i mportant s oci al
and cultural cons equences . In Japan, elders have
tradi ti onally been held i n hi gh es teem. Thi s tradi -
ti on i s threatened by a combi nati on of two factors :
People are generally livi ng longer, and there are
fewer young people to s upport the elders exi s -
tence. As they los e res pect, many older Japanes e
now pray i n thei r temples for a qui ck death.
T
he populati on of Japan i s agi ng faster than
any on earth, a result of decli ni ng bi rth and
death rates. The si tuati on of the elderly of Japan i s
li ke the proverbi al glass of water that i s ei ther half
full or half empty, dependi ng on whether the pos-
i ti ve or negati ve aspects of thei r li ves are empha-
si zed. I n some ways, elderly Japanese are better off
than the elderly of the other developed countri es.
They hold the posi ti on of honorable elders, a re-
flecti on of the Confuci an precept of duty owed to
parents. Japan even has a nati onal holi day,
Respect for the Aged Day, September 15th, when
most offi ces and factori es are closed. Furthermore,
a relati vely hi gh proporti on of elderly Japanese li ve
wi th thei r adult chi ldren, whi ch i s often ci ted as
evi dence of the reverence thi s country pays to
the aged.
However, i t can also be argued that elderly
Japanese are not really so well off and that the
ecstasy years of old age are losi ng thei r rosy
glow i f they truly ever had one. Among the more
sensati onal evi dence ci ted are the supposedly hi gh
rate of sui ci de among elderly Japanese and the ex-
i stence of temples where the elderly go to pray for
a qui ck death. Also, i n recent years, the number of
acti vi ti es for or honori ng the elderly on thei r spe-
ci al day have been few and far between. For most
Japanese, September 15th i s just another holi day.
The parti cularly rapi d pace of agi ng i n Japan
and the potenti al consequences have captured the
attenti on of poli cymakers and offi ci als. [A major
government report] li sted populati on agi ng along
wi th i nternati onali zati on and maturati on of the
economy as the three major challenges for twenty-
fi rst-century Japan. Japanese pri me mi ni sters have
regularly referred to agi ng as they have set the pol-
i cy agenda, recogni zi ng that populati on agi ng af-
fects many aspects of the soci ety and the economy.
Source: Li nda G. Marti n, The Grayi ng of Japan,
Population Bulletin ( Washi ngton, DC) .
Thinking It Over
Are the effects of the grayi ng of Japan best ex-
plai ned by functi onali sm, confli ct theory, or sym-
boli c i nteracti oni sm?Defend your choi ce.
Sect i o n 1 As s es s m en t
1. What three major processes affect the way populati ons change?
2. How mi ght data about age-speci fi c death rates or populati on shi fts be
of use?
3. Why i s the i nfant mortali ty rate a key stati sti c for health workers?
Cr i t i cal Thi nki ng
4. Drawing Conclusions Why i s demography i ncreasi ngly i mportant?
Thi nk of a way i n whi ch the federal government could use some
speci fi c pi ece of demographi c data. State how thi s i nformati on would
help the government make a poli cy deci si on.
You have to enj oy
getti ng older.
Clint East wood
act or and direct or

Sect ion
Sect ion
2
2
T
homas Malthus (1798)
predicted that population
size would ultimately outstrip
the food supply, resulting in
mass starvation and death.
The demographic transition
theory looks at economic
development to predict
population patterns. While
the rate of world population
growth is slowing, the worlds
population will continue to
increase for many years.
Population control has be-
come a concern of many
governments worried about
providing for their future
citizens.
Section
Preview
Section
Preview
World Population
K e y T e r m s
census population momentum
doubling time replacement level
exponential growth population control
demographic transition family planning
theory population pyramid
zero population growth dependency ratio
The Problem of Population Growth
N
o organi zati on has actually ever counted all the people i n the world.
World populati on fi gures are a composi te of best esti mates and na-
ti onal census fi gures where avai lable. Whi le many countri es count and cate-
gori ze people li vi ng i n those countri es, the quali ty of censusdata vari esa great
deal and can be very unreli able. Nevertheless, world populati on growth pat-
terns can be i denti fi ed.
If the counting of the population is a problem in developed
societies, imagine the difficulty with obtaining accurate counts in
developing societies.
census
re gularly occurring count of a
particular population
Rapi d world populati on growth i s a relati vely recent phenomenon. I n fact,
your grandparents have seen more populati on growth duri ng thei r li feti mes
than occurred duri ng the precedi ng four mi lli on years. An esti mated 250 mi l-
li on people were on the earth i n A.D. 1. ( Refer back to Fi gure 16.1 on page
534.) I t was not unti l 1650 that the worlds populati on doubled, to half a bi l-
li on. The second doubli ng occurred i n 1850, bri ngi ng the world populati on to
one bi lli on. By 1930, only ei ghty yearslater, another doubli ng had taken place.
O nly forty-fi ve years after that, i n 1976, a fourth doubli ng rai sed the worlds
populati on to four bi lli on. At the current growth rate, the worlds populati on
i sexpected to double agai n i n about fi fty yearsand wi ll approach ei ght bi lli on
persons by the year 2025. As you can see, the number of years between each
doubli ng of the populati on called, for obvi ousreasons, the doubling time
i sgetti ng shorter and shorter ( World Population Data Sheet, 1999) . Fi gure 16.2
breaks down world populati on projecti ons by regi on. Fi gure 16.3 on the next
page looks at key demographi c stati sti cs by world regi ons.
North America
Asia
Oceania
Latin America
Africa
Europe
Less Developed Areas
Developed Areas
World
316
3,720
31
525
818
727
4,944
1,193
6,137
450
5,262
46
815
1,800
662
7,794
1,242
9,036
North America
Asia
Oceania
Latin America
Africa
Europe
Developed Areas
World
North America
Asia
Oceania
Latin America
Africa
Europe
Developed Areas
World
North America
Asia
Oceania
Latin America
Africa
Europe
Developed Areas
World
0 2000 4000 6000 0 10,000 2000 6000
10 80 0 20 40 60 0 600 400 200
Population
2001
(in Millions)
Population Projection
for 2050
(in Millions)
Projected Population
Change Between
2001 and 2050
Doubling Time
(in Years)
43%
41%
49%
55%
120%
9%
58%
4%
47%
139
50
63
41
29
*
43
693
53
*
Doubling not projected to occur.
Figure 16.2 Population
Projections by Regions of the
World. This graph displays
population projections, by regions
of the world, from 2001 to 2050.
Note the dramatic difference in
population doubling time between
less developed areas and developed
areas.
Source: Adapted from World
Population Data Sheet, 2001.
doubling time
number of years needed to
double the base population size
Visit soc.glencoe.com
and click on Textbook
UpdatesChapter 16 for
an update of the data.
538
Unit 5 Social Change
Why is the worlds population growing so fast? The populati on hasi n-
creased so dramati cally i n part because of the way populati on i ncreases. We are
accustomed to thi nki ng i n terms of linear growth, whereby amounts i ncrease
ari thmeti cally ( asi n the progressi on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 . . .) . Populati on, however, does
not grow li nearly. I t follows the pri nci ple of exponential growth, and i n-
creases geometri cally ( as i n the progressi on 2, 4, 8, 16, 32) . Wi th exponenti al
growth, the amount of i ncrease i s greater each ti me peri od even though the
rate of i ncrease remai nsthe same. Thi si sbecause each i ncrease i sadded to the
base amount and becomes part of the calculati on for the next ri se.
A classi c example of exponenti al growth follows: The story tells of a clever
mi ni ster who presented a beauti ful chess set to hi s ki ng. I n return, he asked
only that the ki ng gi ve one grai n of ri ce for the fi rst square on the chessboard;
two grai ns, or double the amount, for the second square; four ( doubli ng
agai n) for the thi rd; and so forth. The ki ng, not bei ng mathemati cally mi nded,
agreed and ordered the ri ce brought forth. The ei ghth square requi red 128
grai ns, and the twelfth took more than a pound of ri ce. Long before reachi ng
exponential growth
growth in which the amount
of incre ase is adde d to the
base figure e ach time pe riod
Russia
Europe
North America
Canada
United States
China
Oceania
Asia
Latin America
Africa
Developed Areas
Developing Areas
(excluding China)
World
9
10
14
11
15
15
18
22
24
38
11
28
22
Russia
Europe
North America
Canada
United States
China
Oceania
Asia
Latin America
Africa
Developed Areas
Developing Areas
(excluding China)
World
Russia
Europe
North America
Canada
United States
China
Oceania
Asia
Latin America
Africa
Developed Areas
Developing Areas
(excluding China)
World
15
11
9
8
9
6
7
8
6
14
10
9
9
Russia
Europe
North America
Canada
United States
China
Oceania
Asia
Latin America
Africa
Developed Areas
Developing Areas
(excluding China)
World 56
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 6 5 4 3 2 1
0 15 12 9 6 3 0 100 80 60 40 20
Crude Birth Rates Total Fertility Rates
Crude Death Rates Infant Mortality Rates
1.2
1.4
2.0
1.4
2.1
1.8
2.5
2.7
2.8
5.2
1.6
3.6
2.8
16
9
7
6
7
31
28
55
31
88
8
67
Figure 16.3 World Birth
Rates, Death Rates, and
Infant Mortality Rates.
Would you always expect to see a
correlation between crude birth
rates and total fertility rates for a
country? Between crude death rates
and infant morality rates?
Source: Washi ngton, DC: Populati on
Reference Bureau, 2001.
Visit soc.glencoe.com
and click on Textbook
UpdatesChapter 16 for
an update of the data.
the si xty-fourth square, the ki ngs coffers were depleted. Even today, the
worlds ri chest ki ng could not produce enough ri ce to fi ll the fi nal square. I t
would requi re more than 200 bi lli on tons, or the equi valent of the worlds cur-
rent total producti on of ri ce for the next 653 years.
I f a populati on i s growi ng at 1 percent per year, i t takes seventy years to
double. For example, suppose the populati on of a ci ty was 50, 000 i n 1800.
At a growth rate of 1 percent, that populati on would grow to 100, 000 i n
1870. By 1940 i t would reach 200, 000; by 2010, 400, 000. Recalli ng the chess-
board example, you can see that even a 1 percent growth rate can have se-
ri ous consequences. T he number of people added each year becomes part
of the total populati on, whi ch then i ncreases by another 1 percent i n the fol-
lowi ng year.
Malthus and Population Growth
Concern about populati on i s not new. I n 1798, Thomas
Robert Malthus, an Engli sh mi ni ster and economi st, publi shed
An Essay on the Principle of Population. I n hi s essay, Malthus
descri bed relati onshi ps between populati on growth and
economi c development. Here are the key concepts i n hi s
theory.
Populati on, i f left unchecked, wi ll exceed the food
supply. Thi s i s because populati on i ncreases
exponenti ally, whi le the food supply does not.
Checks on populati on can be positiveor preventive.
Posi ti ve factors are events or condi ti ons that i ncrease
mortali ty. They i nclude fami ne, di sease, and war.
Preventi ve factors decrease ferti li ty and i nclude sexual
absti nence and marryi ng at a later age. ( Remember that
at the ti me Malthus wrote there was no reli able bi rth
control. For thi s conservati ve mi ni ster, sexual
absti nence was the only acceptable way to reduce
the number of bi rths.)
For the poor, any i mprovement i n i ncome i s eaten
up i n addi ti onal bi rths. Thi s leads to lower per-
person food consumpti on, lower standards of li vi ng, and eventually
death.
The wealthy and well educated already exerci se preventi ve checks.
How did Malthus apply his theory to population control? Malthus be-
li eved that posi ti ve checks on populati on growth could be avoi ded through
educati on of the poor. Wi th educati on, he wrote, the poor would rai se thei r
standard of li vi ng and choose to have smaller fami li es. That part of Malthuss
theory i s not generally known, however, because he i s most remembered for
hi s di re predi cti ons that overpopulati on would result i n fami ne and poverty.
The Demographic Transition
Although wrong i n some of hi s key assumpti ons, Malthus had a lasti ng
i mpact on populati on study. Hi s i s not the only theory, however. Developed
English minister and economist
Thomas Malthus wrote about the
ability of the food supply to keep up
with population growth.
nati ons have followed a pattern of populati on growth di fferent from that pre-
di cted by Malthuss theory. The demographic transition theory looks at
the stages of economi c development i n a country to make predi cti ons about
populati on growth. Thi s theory takes i nto consi derati on two thi ngs Malthus
di d not predi ct agri cultural producti vi ty and reli able methods of bi rth con-
trol. Demographi c transi ti on theory descri bes four stages of populati on
growth. ( See Fi gure 16.4 shown above.)
Stage 1. Both the bi rth rate and the death rate are hi gh. Populati on
growth i s slow. No countri es are at thi s stage today.
Stage 2. The bi rth rate remai ns hi gh, but the death rate drops sharply
because of moderni zi ng factors such as sani tati on, i ncreased food
producti on, and medi cal advances. The rate of populati on growth i s
very hi gh. Most sub-Saharan Afri can countri es are presently at thi s stage.
Stage 3. The bi rth rate decli nes sharply, but because the death rate
conti nues to go down, populati on growth i s sti ll rapi d. Many Lati n
Ameri can countri es are currently at thi s stage.
Stage 4. Both the bi rth rate and the death rate are low, and the
populati on grows slowly i f at all. Anglo Ameri ca, Europe, and Japan
are at thi s stage today.
Future World Population Growth
World populati on growth hasreached a turni ng poi nt. After more than two
hundred yearsof i ncrease, the annual populati on growth rate i sdecli ni ng. The
current growth rate i s 1.3 percent, compared wi th the peak of 2.04 percent i n
the late 1960s. Moreover, the rate i sprojected to drop to zero by the year 2100.
But as we have seen, despi te the reducti on i n the annual growth rate and
bi rth rate, the worlds populati on wi ll conti nue to i ncrease. Nearly seven bi l-
li on people are expected to i nhabi t the globe by 2010. Throughout the fi rst
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Beginning of
modernization
Birth rate high
Death rate high
Birth rate remains
high
Death rate declines
sharply
Death rate
continues to
decline sharply
Birth rate drops
sharply
Death rate low
Birth rate low
Birth rate
Death rate
Figure 16.4 Stages of the
Demographic Transition.
This figure illustrates the
demographic transition. Stage 1
begins with small population growth
due to a balance between birth rates
and death rates (both at high
levels). In Stage 2, population grows
dramatically because the death rate
decreases so much faster than the
birth rate. Population growth begins
to slow in Stage 3, when the birth
rate belatedly drops sharply. Stage 4
is again a condition of smaller
population growth because birth
rates and death rates come into
balance (both at low levels).
demographic transition theory
the ory that population growth
is a function of the le ve l of
e conomic de ve lopme nt in a
country
half of the twenty-fi rst century,
the annual growth rate i s ex-
pected to decli ne unti l world
populati on stabi li zes at about
eleven bi lli on people. ( See
Fi gure 16.5.) At thi s poi nt, the
world wi ll have reached zero
population growth when
deaths are balanced by bi rths so
that the populati on does not i n-
crease ( World Population Data
Sheet, 2001) .
Contrary to popular beli ef,
li mi ti ng the average fami ly si ze
to two chi ldren does not i mme-
di ately produce zero populati on
growth. There i s a ti me lag of
si xty to seventy years because
of the hi gh proporti on of young
women of chi ldbeari ng age i n
the worlds populati on. Even i f
each of these women had only
two chi ldren, the world popula-
ti on would grow.
The ti me lag i s what demog-
raphers call population momentum. The growth of the worlds populati on,
li ke a huge boulder rolli ng down a mountai n, cannot be stopped i mmedi -
ately. But the sooner the momentum of current populati on growth i s halted,
the better. The sooner the world ferti li ty rate reaches the replacement level
( the rate at whi ch people replace themselves wi thout addi ng to the popula-
ti on) the sooner zero populati on growth wi ll be reached. The ulti mate si ze
of the worlds populati on, when i t does stop growi ng, depends greatly on
the ti mi ng of reachi ng replacement level. To state i t another way, for each
decade i t takes to reach replacement level, the worlds populati on wi ll i n-
crease by 15 percent.
Population Control
As di scussed earli er, death rates i n both developi ng and developed na-
ti ons have already dropped dramati cally. Any si gni fi cant progress i n curbi ng
world populati on growth must concentrate on loweri ng bi rth rates.
Population control refers to the consci ous attempt to regulate populati on
si ze through nati onal bi rth control programs.
Is government-sponsored population control new? Hi stori cally,
most soci eti es were more concerned wi th i ncreasi ng the populati on than
wi th overpopulati on. Many bi rths were needed to offset the hi gh death rates
from di sease and poor hygi ene. Wi th surplus populati ons, aggressi ve nati ons
were able to mai ntai n larger armi es. Agri cultural soci eti es needed large num-
bers of people to work the land. Agi ng parents wanted to be more secure i n
old age. Hi gh bi rth rates were also encouraged i n countri es wi th reli gi ous
laws agai nst bi rth control.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
B
i
l
l
i
o
n
s

o
f

p
e
r
s
o
n
s
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Year
2070 2090 2110 2130 2150
Three Possible Futures
High Scenario
(2.6 children per woman)
Medium Scenario
Low Scenario
Figure 16.5 Long-Range Projections of World Population: 20002150.
The United Nations estimate of future growth is based on three different assumptions.
The high scenario would push world population growth to over 27 billion. The medium
scenario would result in a world population of about 11 billion. The low scenario would
leave the world population at about 4 billion.
Source: Populati on Reference Bureau, Washi ngton, DC, 2001.
zero population growth
situation in which de aths are
balance d by births so that the
population doe s not incre ase
population momentum
inability to stop population
growth imme diate ly be cause
of pre vious high rate of
growth
replacement level
birth rate at which a couple
re place s itse lf without adding
to the population
population control
atte mpts by gove rnme nt to
control birth rate s
Si nce the mi ddle of the twenti eth century, however, more ( but certai nly
not all) governments have come to vi ew hi gh bi rth rates as a threat to thei r
nati onal well bei ng. By 1990, most countri es had i n place formal programs
to reduce bi rth rates. Government poli ci es for populati on control range from
voluntary to compulsory.
What is voluntary population control? The voluntary use of popula-
ti on control methods i s generally known as family planning. Governments
that support fami ly planni ng provi de i nformati on and servi ces that help cou-
ples have only the number of chi ldren they want. Voluntary government poli -
ci es range from i ndi rect means such as fami ly planni ng educati on to di rect
means such as di stri buti ng bi rth control materi als at health cli ni cs.
Even when effecti ve, however, fami ly planni ng programs merely enable
fami li es to achi eve thei r desired fami ly si ze. Unfortunately for effecti ve pop-
ulati on control, the desi red fami ly si ze i n many nati ons i s qui te hi gh. T he
average preferred fami ly si ze ( number of chi ldren) i n Afri can nati ons i s 7.1;
i n M i ddle-Eastern nati ons, 5.1; i n Lati n Ameri can nati ons, 4.3; and i n Asi an
Paci fi c nati ons, 4.0. I n European countri es, the average preferred fami ly si ze
ranges from 2.1 to 2.8.
How successful is voluntary population control? Fami ly planni ng has
succeeded i n Tai wan, where the bi rth rate had fallen below replacement level
by 2000. Tai wansfami ly planni ng effortswere launched under very favorable
condi ti ons. When the Japanese wi thdrew from Tai wan after World War I I , they
left behi nd a labor force trai ned for i ndustri al work. Consequently, the
Tai wanese were able to use thi s advantage to bui ld an expandi ng economy.
Wi th economi c development came a decli ne i n both bi rth and death rates. I n
short, the Tai wanese went through the demographi c transi ti on fai rly rapi dly.
I ndi a was a di fferent story. Fami ly planni ng there got off to a very slow
start, and the country has been unable to reduce the rate of populati on
growth through voluntary means. Fami ly planni ng efforts fai led because gov-
ernment offi ci als and fami ly planners di d not take the broader soci al context
European countries, such as
Germany, have been very successful
in controlling population growth
through family planning.
family planning
the voluntary use of
population control me thods
i nto account. For one thi ng, I ndi a di d not have
Tai wans advantage of relati vely rapi d economi c de-
velopment. I n addi ti on, the I ndi an offi ci als and plan-
ners di d not make enough efforts to overcome cultural
and reli gi ous opposi ti on to bi rth control. Nor di d they
fi nd enough ways to effecti vely communi cate bi rth
control i nformati on and technology. Fi nally, the na-
ti onal bi rth control program was left i n the hands of
i ndi vi dual state governments to i mplement.
Efforts to control populati on began to succeed i n
I ndi a only after the government turned to a steri li za-
ti on program i n 1976. Although the government di d
not use the force of law, a system of disincentiveshad
the effect of compulsi on. Those who could not pro-
duce offi ci al proof of a steri li zati on were deni ed such
thi ngs as busi ness permi ts, gun li censes, and rati on
cards for the purchase of basi c goods ( Weeks, 1999) .
Have compulsory population control methods
ever been used successfully? Both Chi na and Si ngapore have forced
populati on control poli ci es that seem to achi eve thei r goals. Chi na has been
successful i n reduci ng i ts total ferti li ty rate from 7.5 i n 1963 to 1.8 i n 2001
through a system of rewards and puni shments that i ncludes a one-chi ld
poli cy. O ne-chi ld fami li es recei ve a larger reti rement pensi on and enjoy
preference i n housi ng, school
admi ssi on for thei r chi ldren, and
employment. Fami li es wi th more
than one chi ld are subject to an
escalati ng tax on each chi ld, and
they get no fi nanci al ai d from
the government for the medi cal
and educati onal costs of thei r
extra chi ldren.
T he i sland ci ty-state of
Si ngapore began formally di s-
couragi ng large fami li es i n 1969.
The government passed laws
that penali zed parents wi th large
fami li es ( Weeks, 1999) . These
measures i ncluded
deni al of a pai d ei ght-week
materni ty leave.
loss of an i ncome tax
allowance.
di mi ni shed access to publi c
housi ng.
i ncreased materni ty costs
for each addi ti onal chi ld.
a lower li keli hood of
chi ldrens enteri ng good
schools.
Indias population control programs
have been only moderately
successful at best.
Chinas population control efforts have been
very effective. This poster of a mother and
baby was designed to promote small families.
These poli ci es worked so well that the total ferti li ty rate i n Si ngapore
dropped from 4.5 chi ldren per woman to 1.4 between 1966 and 1985. I n fact,
the government became worri ed about the reducti on i n populati on si ze and,
i n 1987, reversed some of i ts earli er poli ci es. The government of Si ngapore
now supports three or more chi ldren for people able to afford them ( Yap,
1995) . Despi te thi s effort, Si ngapores total bi rth rate of 1.6 i s sti ll below re-
placement level.
Does one child make a difference? The i mportance of li mi ti ng fami ly
si ze, even by one chi ld, can be i llustrated by populati on projecti ons for the
Uni ted States. Even though the Uni ted States i s unli kely to i ncrease to a three-
chi ld average i n the future, the hypotheti cal Ameri can case can help us un-
derstand the i mportance of populati on control. Fi gure 16.6 contrasts the
projected populati on of the Uni ted States i n the year 2070 for an average fam-
i ly si ze of two chi ldren and an average fami ly si ze of three chi ldren. When
small decreases i n the death rate and net mi grati on at the present level are as-
sumed, an average two-chi ld fami ly si ze would result i n a populati on of 300
mi lli on i n 2015. Taki ng the hypotheti cal average fami ly si ze of three chi ldren,
the U.S. populati on would grow to 400 mi lli on by 2015. As ti me passed, the
di fference of only one extra chi ld per fami ly would assume added si gni fi -
cance. By 2070, the two-chi ld fami ly would produce a populati on of 350 mi l-
li on, but the three-chi ld fami ly would push the populati on close to one bi lli on!
To say i t another way, wi th an average fami ly of two chi ldren, the U.S. pop-
ulati on would not qui te double i tself between 1970 and 2070. But should the
three-chi ld fami ly have been the average, the populati on would have doubled
i tself twi ce duri ng thi s same peri od.
The consequences of li mi ti ng populati on i n developi ng regi ons becomes
clearer when the effect of even one chi ld added to the average number of
chi ldren i n a fami ly i s recogni zed. Moreover, the addi ti on of one chi ld per
fami ly has a greater effect as the populati on base gets larger; not only i s one
extra person added, but theoreti cally that one person wi ll be i nvolved wi th
the reproducti on of yet another three, and on i t goes. The largest populati ons
are found i n developi ng countri es, whi ch also have the largest average num-
ber of chi ldren per fami ly.
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1870 1900 1970 2000 2070
100 million
(1915)
200 million
(1968)
300 million
(1995)
300 million
(2015)
400 million
(2015)
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

(
i
n

m
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
)
Three-child average per family
Two-child average per family
Figure 16.6 Projected
Populations of the United
States. This graph illustrates the
importance of reaching the
population replacement level (two
children per family). Are you
surprised at the difference in U.S.
population growth caused by an
average of three children per family
versus two children?
Population
Pyramids
Population pyramids
allow you to see at a glance
the age and sex composi ti on
of a populati on. Age and sex
are key i ndexesto ferti li ty and
mortali ty rates, whi ch i n turn
are used to project school and
housi ng needs, health re-
sources, and other key soci al
servi ces. Populati on pyrami ds
i llustrate the dependency ratio
that resultsfrom di fferent rates
of populati on growth. The
dependency ratioi sthe rati o
of persons i n the dependent
ages ( under fi fteen and over
si xty-four) to those i n the
economi cally acti ve ages( fi f-
teen to si xty-four) . The two as-
pects of the dependency rati o
are youth dependency and
old-age dependency. Developi ng nati onshave much hi gher youth dependency
than developed nati ons. Developed nati ons have si gni fi cantly hi gher old-age
dependency. Fi gure 16.7 di splays typi cal age-sex pyrami ds for developed and
developi ng nati ons.
Why i s the dependency rati o i mportant? For developi ng countri es
such as M exi co, a hi gh youth dependency means that nati onal i ncome
must be di verted from economi c development to provi de food, housi ng,
and educati on for i ts large
young populati on. I n de-
veloped countri es such
as the Uni ted States,
ri si ng old-age depen-
dency creates a
di fferent set of
problems.
Wi th a larger
300 200 100 0
Population in millions
100 200 300
Males Females
85+
8084
7579
7074
6569
6064
5559
4549
4044
3539
3034
2529
2024
1519
1014
59
04
5054
300 200 100 0
Population in millions
100 200 300
Males Females
85+
8084
7579
7074
6569
6064
5559
4549
4044
3539
3034
2529
2024
1519
1014
59
04
5054
Developed Nations
A
g
e

i
n

y
e
a
r
s
Less Developed Nations
Figure 16.7 Age-Sex Pyramids in Developed and Less Developed Countries.
This figure shows general population patterns by age and sex in developed and developing
countries. Using the dependency ratio, explain why children in developed countries are
economically better off than those in the developing nations.
Source: Uni ted Nati ons Populati on Di vi si on.
Americas aging population is
raising the dependency ratio. Why
should that concern you?
population pyramid
a graphic re pre se ntative of the
age and se x composition of a
population
dependency ratio
the ratio of de pe nde nt
pe rsons to e conomically active
pe rsons
older populati on, there are fewer young people i n the labor force to sup-
port the growi ng number of older people. For example, i n the Uni ted
States i n 1995 there were just over four ti mes as many 25-year-olds as 64-
year-olds. By 2030, there wi ll be only 2.3 ti mes as many. ( See Fi gure 16.8.)
T hi s shi ft wi ll i ncrease the burden on the young to pay for Soci al Securi ty
and M edi care. O ther problems wi ll i nclude the need for i ncreasi ng health
care servi ces and i nsti tuti onal arrangements for the long-term care of el-
derly people.
1. Bri efly explai n the di fference between exponenti al and li near growth.
2. What are posi ti ve checks?
3. How does the demographi c transi ti on theory reflect the development of
Western nati ons?
4. Whi ch of the followi ng fi gures i s the worlds populati on most li kely to
reach before i t stops growi ng?
a. four bi lli on c. eleven bi lli on
b. ei ght bi lli on d. twenty-fi ve bi lli on
5. Evaluating Information Gi ven the exponenti al rate at whi ch
populati on grows, di scuss the effect of zero populati on growth on the
si ze of the worlds populati on i n 2020.
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2
1995
There were 4.1
times as many 25-
to 64-year-olds as
there were people
65 and older.
2030
There will be 2.3
times as many 25-
to 64-year-olds as
there will be people
65 and older.
R
a
t
i
o

o
f

w
o
r
k
i
n
g
-
a
g
e

p
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

t
o

t
h
e

e
l
d
e
r
l
y

Figure 16.8 Ratio of Working-Age Population to the Elderly in the U.S.
25-to-64-Year-Olds vs 65 and Older. This graph illustrates the rising old-age
dependency occurring in the U.S.
Source: Reference Bureau, Washi ngton, D.C.
M anki nd owes to the
chi ld the best i t has
to gi ve.
UN declarat ion

Demography for
Businesses
Sociology
Today
Busi nesses have di scovered that they can grow bi gger by targeti ng smaller groups of consumers.
These groups, called generati ons, or cohorts, are defi ned by i mportant li fe experi ences. Events occur-
ri ng when people fi rst become economi c adults ( usually between ages 17 and 21) affect thei r li fe-
long atti tudes and values. These atti tudes and values are unli kely to change as a person ages. So the
ki nd of musi c that i s popular duri ng these formati ve years often remai ns the preferred type of musi c
for li fe. Si mi larly, early li feti me experi ences i nfluence preferences i n many other product and servi ce
categori es.
Studi es of the U.S. populati on have i denti fi ed seven di sti nct groups descri bed i n the table below.
Whi ch cohort are you?Your parents?
Cohort Description Born Popular Music Styles
The Depressi on cohort The G.I . generati on 19121921 Bi g band
The World War I I cohort The Depressi on generati on 19221927 Swi ng
The Postwar cohort The si lent generati on 19281945 Frank Si natra/Rat Pack
The Boomers I cohort The Woodstock generati on 19461954 Rock and roll
The Boomers I I cohort The zoomer generati on 19551965 Rock and roll, di sco
The generati on X cohort The baby-buster generati on 19661976 Grunge, rap,
country western
The Boomlet cohort The echo-boom generati on 1977 Retro-swi ng, Lati n
Doing Sociology
Have short i ntervi ews wi th members
of at least two of the demographi c
busi ness cohorts profi led above.
I denti fy a number of di fferences i n
preferences for products between the
members of di fferent cohorts.
Source: Berkowi tz, K eri n, Hartley, and
Rudeli us, Marketing, 5th ed. Chi cago:
I rwi n, 1997.
The products in this mall store have been
selected by taking into account the buying
preferences of teenagers.
Sect ion
Sect ion
3
3
T
he first preindustrial cities
developed in fertile areas
where surplus food could be
grown. With the Industrial
Revolution came a major in-
crease in the rate of urbaniza-
tion. The development of
factories was an especially
important influence on the lo-
cation of cities. Urbanization
in developed and developing
nations has occurred at differ-
ent speeds. The United
States is now primarily a sub-
urban nation.
Section
Preview
Section
Preview
The Urban Transition
K e y T e r m s
city central-city dilemma
urbanization gentrification
overurbanization edge city
suburbanization
Defining a City
W
hen does a vi llage become
a ci ty? I n Denmark and
Sweden, an area wi th 200 i nhabi tants
offi ci ally quali fi es as a ci ty. Populous
Japan uses a much hi gher number
30, 000. The cutoff poi nt used by the
U.S. Census Bureau to defi ne a ci ty i s
a populati on of 2, 500. Thi s number
was set at a ti me when urbani zati on
had just begun and populati on con-
centrati ons were small. I t i s obvi -
ously low for modern ti mes.
A ci ty i s more than just a reason-
ably large number of people, how-
ever. Ci ti es are also long-lasti ng. The
peri odi c Woodstock rock festi vals
gather a large number of people i n
one place, but only for short peri ods
of ti me. Clearly, large gatheri ngsalone
do not make a ci ty. Ci ti es also have a
centrali zed economi c focus. That i s,
they provi de people wi th a chance to
work i n commerce, i ndustry, or ser-
vi ce. I n summary, a city i s a dense
and permanent concentrati on of peo-
ple li vi ng i n a li mi ted geographi c area
who earn thei r li vi ng pri mari ly
through nonagri cultural acti vi ti es.
Urbanization
The world has been greatly changed by urbanization the process by
whi ch an i ncreasi ngly larger porti on of the worlds populati on li ves i n or very
near to ci ti es. Urbani zati on hasbeen so common that i t i snow taken for granted
i n many parts of the world. Today, almost as many people li ve i n urban areas
as i n rural areas. Thi s i s a fai rly recent development i n human hi story.
Crowded inner cities and sprawling suburbs
appear in all American cities.
city
dense and permanent
concentration of people living
in a specific area and working
primarily in nonagricultural jobs
urbanization
proce ss by which an
incre asingly large r portion of
the worlds population live s in
citie s
What were early cities like? The fi rst ci ti es appeared about fi ve or si x
thousand years ago and were qui te small by modern standards. O ne of the
worlds fi rst major ci ti es was Ur, located at the poi nt where the Ti gri s and
Euphrates Ri vers meet ( i n modern-day I raq) . At i ts peak, Ur held only about
24, 000 people. Later, duri ng the ti me of the Roman Empi re, i t i s unli kely that
many ci ti es had populati ons larger than 33, 000. The populati on of Rome i t-
self was probably under 350, 000.
I n addi ti on to thei r small si ze, the ci ti es of anci ent and medi eval peri ods
contai ned only a small porti on of the worlds populati on. As recently as 1800,
less than 3 percent of the worlds populati on li ved i n ci ti es of 20, 000 or more.
By contrast, today, 46 percent of the worlds populati on li ve i n urban areas.
I n North Ameri ca, 75 percent of the populati on li ve i n ci ti es ( World
Population Data Sheet, 2001) . How di d ci ti es develop so qui ckly and why
have ci ti es replaced rural li vi ng for most people?
Preindustrial Cities
The fi rst urban settlements were located i n Mesopotami a and were estab-
li shed around 3500 B.C. Thi s was after people learned how to culti vate plants
and domesti cate ani mals, a peri od known as the agricultural revolution.
The Mesopotami an regi on i s among the worlds most ferti le areas and the
farmers i n the area were able to provi de enough extra, or surplus, food to
feed people i n the ci ti es. A surplus food supply i s necessary for urbani zati on
to occur.
Who lived in preindustrial cities? Besi des avai lable food, people
needed other reasons to gather i n ci ti es. Ci ti es tended to attract four basi c
types of people: eli tes, functi onari es, craftspeople, and the poor and desti -
tute. For eli tes, the ci ty provi ded a setti ng for consoli dati ng poli ti cal, mi li -
tary, or reli gi ous power. T he functi onari es were the poli ti cal or reli gi ous
offi ci als who carri ed out the plans of the eli tes. T hei r li ves were undoubt-
edly easi er than those of the peasant-farmers i n the countrysi de.
Craftspeople, sti ll lower i n the strati fi cati on structure, came to the ci ty to
work and sell thei r products to the eli tes and functi onari es. The poor
came hopi ng to fi nd work but were seldom able to i mprove thei r
condi ti on.
Do preindustrial cities still exist today? Afri ca, Asi a, and
Lati n Ameri ca are only partly i ndustri ali zed. For thi s reason, many
of thei r ci ti es sti ll have some prei ndustri al characteri sti cs. Thi s i s
parti cularly true i n capi tal ci ti es because they are a magnet to the
rural poor seeki ng a better li fe. Rural mi grants are attracted to
these ci ti es because there are li mi ted opportuni ti es for maki ng a
li vi ng i n the rural areas and the ci ty promi ses a better li fe.
Unfortunately, most of those who mi grate to the ci ti es are di s-
appoi nted, because the expected employment opportuni ti es do
not exi st. The mi grants end up li vi ng i n terri ble slums.
I n Calcutta, I ndi a, for example, 12 mi lli on people are
crowded i nto a ci ty whose last major sewer li ne was bui lt i n
1896. Epi demi cs are frequent, and di sease i s commonplace. Calcuttas hous-
i ng supply, waterworks, electri cal system, and other faci li ti es are not suffi ci ent
to cope wi th the ci tys rapi d growth.
Calcutta, India, remains essentially a
preindustrial city.
The Rise of the Modern City
Begi nni ng i n the 1700s, the I ndustri al Revoluti on created major changes
i n transportati on, agri culture, commerce, and i ndustry. Technologi cal devel-
opments led to better agri cultural producti vi ty and more effi ci ent transporta-
ti on systems. Farm workers were free to leave rural areas and move i nto
ci ti es. More i mportant, however, was the spread of factori es.
InterpretingtheMap
1. The map shows that countri es such as England, Germany, and Sweden have urban populati ons
that make up over 80 percent of thei r total populati ons. Thi s can be explai ned by the effects of
the I ndustri al Revoluti on, si nce these countri es economi es are hi ghly developed. However,
other countri es, such as Venezuela, Argenti na, and Li bya, whi ch are not hi ghly developed, also
have urban populati ons that compri se over 80 percent of thei r totals. Can you thi nk of reasons
why thi s i s so?Explai n.
2. What effects wi ll i ncreased urbani zati on have on countri es and the world?
World View
World View
> 79%
Urban Population as a Percentage
of Total Population
60%79%
40%59%
20%39%
< 20%
No data
North
Americ a
Europe
Asia
Australia
Afric a
South
Americ a
Urban Population as a
Proportion of Total
Population
As di scussed i n the text, the I ndustri al Revoluti on en-
couraged the rapi d growth of ci ti es. The map below
shows that many countri es now have urban popula-
ti ons that compri se 60 percent or more of thei r total
populati ons.
Adapted from The State of the World Atlas, 5th ed.
Factori es were not establi shed to encourage the growth of ci ti es, but they
had that effect. Factory owners tended to bui ld i n the same area to share raw
materi als and to take advantage of natural features such as water power and
ri ver transport. Machi nery and equi pment makers located thei r plants next to
the factori es they would be supplyi ng. All these busi nesses i n turn attracted
retai lers, i nnkeepers, entertai ners, and a wi de range of people offeri ng ser-
vi ces to ci ty dwellers. The more servi ces offered, the more people were at-
tracted, mai ntai ni ng the cycle of urban growth. The i ndustri al world was
becomi ng an urbani zed world.
World Urbanization
Urbani zati on i s a worldwi de movement. From 1800 to the mi d-1980s, the
number of urban dwellers i ncreased one hundred ti mes, whi le the popula-
ti on i ncreased only about fi vefold. O ver 2.8 bi lli on people nearly 46 per-
cent of the worlds populati on now li ve i n urban areas. I n developed
countri es, 75 percent of the populati on li ves i n urban areas compared to 40
percent i n developi ng countri es. ( See Fi gure 16.10 on page 553.)
What are the patterns for urbanization? Developed and developi ng
countri es have di sti nct patterns of urbani zati on. Most of the urban growth i n
developi ng countri es before the turn of the century occurred through colo-
ni al expansi on. Western countri es, whi ch had been i nvolved i n coloni al ex-
pansi on si nce the late fi fteenth century, held half the world under coloni al
rule by the latter part of the ni neteenth century. I t has been only si nce World
War I I that many of these coloni al countri es have become i ndependent na-
ti ons ( Bardo and Hartman, 1982) .
Theoretical
Perspective Concept Sample Research Topic
Figure 16.9 Focus on Theoretical Perspectives
Urban Society. Thi s table i llustrates how functi onali sm and confli ct theory mi ght approach the study of
urban soci ety. Symboli c i nteracti oni sm was not i ncluded. Why do you thi nk i t was excluded?Can you suggest
a research topi c i n ei ther populati on or urbani zati on for whi ch symboli c i nteracti oni sm would be appropri ate?
Study of the relati onshi p
between populati on
densi ty and the
sui ci de rate
Functi onali sm Urbani zati on
I nvesti gati on of the
relati onshi p between the
di stri buti on of scarce
resources and soci al
class
Confli ct Theory O verurbani zati on
Si nce gai ni ng i ndependence, these former coloni es have been experi enc-
i ng rapi d urbani zati on and i ndustri ali zati on. I n fact, urbani zati on i n these
areas i s now proceedi ng ni ne ti mes faster than i t di d i n the West duri ng i ts
urban expansi on peri od. The rate of urbani zati on for major i ndustri al nati ons
i n the West was 15 percent each decade throughout the ni neteenth century.
I n the 1960s, the rate of urbani zati on i n major developi ng countri es was 20
percent per decade ( Li ght, 1983) .
What are some other differences in the pattern of world urbaniza-
tion? I n the fi rst place, i ndustri ali zati on i n developi ng countri es, unli ke the
Western experi ence, has not kept pace wi th urbani zati on. Ci ti es of North
Ameri ca and Europe had jobs for all mi grants from rural areas. I n the ci ti es
of developi ng nati ons, the supply of labor from the countrysi de i s greater
than the demand for labor i n the ci ti es. A hi gh rate of urban unemployment
i s the obvi ous result. The term overurbanization has been created to de-
scri be a si tuati on i n whi ch a ci ty i s unable to supply adequate jobs and hous-
i ng for i ts i nhabi tants.
Another di fference between urbani zati on i n developed and developi ng
countri es i s the number and si ze of ci ti es. When grouped by si ze, ci ti es i n
developed countri es form a pyrami d: a few large ci ti es at the top, many
medi um-si zed ci ti es i n the mi ddle, and a large base of small ci ti es. I n the de-
velopi ng world, i n contrast, many countri es have one tremendously bi g ci ty
that dwarfs a large number of vi llages. Calcutta, I ndi a, and Mexi co Ci ty are
examples. O f the worlds ten largest ci ti es, only two Shanghai and
Calcutta were i n developi ng countri es i n 1950. By 2000, as you can see i n
Fi gure 16.10 on the opposi te page, seven of the top ten largest urban areas
were i n developi ng countri es. By the end of the twenty-fi rst century, i t i s pre-
di cted that there wi ll be twenty-one megaci ti es wi th populati ons of ten mi l-
li on or more. Ei ghteen of these wi ll be i n developi ng countri es, i ncludi ng the
most i mpoveri shed soci eti es i n the world.
What are push and pull factors? I n explai ni ng why people i n
developi ng countri es move to large ci ti es wi th i nadequate jobs and housi ng,
urban soci ologi sts poi nt to the operati on of push and pull factors. People
are pushed out of thei r vi llages because expandi ng rural populati ons cannot
be supported by the exi sti ng agri cultural economy. They are forced to mi -
grate elsewhere, and ci ti es are at least an alternati ve. Poor people are also
attracted to ci ti es i n the beli ef there are opportuni ti es for better educati on,
employment, soci al welfare support, and good medi cal care. Unfortunately,
they are li kely to be di sappoi nted.
Suburbanization in the United States
Unli ke ci ti es i n the developi ng world, ci ti es i n the Uni ted States have re-
cently been losi ng populati on, not gai ni ng. Si nce 1950, the proporti on of the
populati on li vi ng i n suburbs has more than doubled. Suburbanization oc-
curs when central ci ti es lose populati on to the surroundi ng areas. The Uni ted
States i s now predomi nantly suburban.
What makes suburbanization possible? Suburbani zati on has become
an i mportant trend partly because of technologi cal developments. I mprove-
ments i n communi cati on ( such as telephones, radi os, and televi si on and later
computers, fax machi nes, and the I nternet) have allowed people to li ve away
Los Angeles drivers spend about 82
hours a year, two full weeks of work,
waiting in traffic. Does this mean
that Los Angeles is overurbanized?
overurbanization
situation in which a city cannot
supply ade quate jobs and
housing for its inhabitants
suburbanization
loss of population of a city to
surrounding are as
Chapter 16 Population and Urbanization
553
from the central ci ty wi thout
losi ng touch wi th what i s
goi ng on there. Developments
i n transportati on ( especi ally
trai ns, hi ghways, automobi les,
and trucks) have made i t pos-
si ble both for people to com-
mute to work and for many
busi nesses to leave the central
ci ty for suburban locati ons.
Technology i s not the only
cause of suburbani zati on.
Both cultural and economi c
pressures have encouraged
the development of suburbs.
Partly because of Ameri cas
fronti er heri tage, Ameri can
culture has always had a bi as agai nst urban li vi ng. Some Ameri cans prefer
urban li fe, but most report that they would rather li ve i n a rural setti ng. Even
those who choose to li ve i n the ci ty beli eve they are gi vi ng up some advan-
tages. Suburbs, wi th thei r low-densi ty housi ng, have allowed many people to
escape the problems of urban li vi ng wi thout leavi ng the urban areas com-
pletely. Suburbs are attracti ve because of decreased crowdi ng and traffi c con-
gesti on, lower taxes, better schools, less cri me, and reduced polluti on.
The scarci ty and hi gh cost of land i n the central ci ty also encourages sub-
urbani zati on. Developers of new housi ng, retai l, and i ndustri al projects often
fi nd suburban locati ons far less expensi ve than those near the central ci ty.
Fi nally, government poli cy has often i ncreased the i mpact of economi c
forces. Federal Housi ng Admi ni strati on regulati ons, for example, have fa-
vored the fi nanci ng of new houses ( whi ch can be bui lt most cheaply i n sub-
urban locati ons) rather than the refurbi shi ng of older houses i n central ci ti es.
Among other thi ngs, thi s has led to the central-city dilemma.
What is the central-city dilemma? When suburbani zati on fi rst be-
came noti ceable i n the 1930s, only the upper and mi ddle classes could af-
ford to leave the central ci ty. Not unti l the 1950s di d the whi te worki ng class
follow them. Despi te federal legi slati on prohi bi ti ng housi ng di scri mi nati on,
the suburbs remai ned largely whi te unti l the 1970s. Si nce then, central-ci ty
mi nori ti es have moved to the suburbs i n greater numbers. Sti ll, the percent-
age of Afri can Ameri cans li vi ng i n central ci ti es has decli ned only sli ghtly
si nce 1970 ( Farley, 1997; Palen, 1997) .
The problem i s not merely that mi nori ti es remai n trapped i n i nner ci ti es.
Busi nesses have followed the more affluent people to the suburbs where they
can fi nd lower tax rates, less expensi ve land, less congesti on, and thei r cus-
tomers who have already left the ci ty. Accompanyi ng the exodus of the mi d-
dle class, manufacturers, and retai lers i s the shri nki ng of the central-ci ty tax
base. As a result, the central ci ty has become i ncreasi ngly populated by the
poor, the unski lled, and the uneducated. Thi s has created the central-city
dilemma the concentrati on of a large populati on i n need of publi c servi ces
( schools, transportati on, health care) wi thout the tax base to provi de them.
Can the central-city dilemma be solved? Some countertrends exi st.
There are ci ty governments now requi ri ng certai n publi c employees to li ve i n
0 30 5 10 15 20 25
2000
Tokyo
Sao Paulo
Bombay
Shanghai
New York
Mexico City
Beijing
Los Angeles
Seoul
Buenos Aires
28.0
22.6
18.1
17.4
16.6
16.2
14.4
13.2
13.0
12.8
0 30 5 10 15 20 25
1950
New York
London
Tokyo
Paris
Shanghai
Buenos Aires
Chicago
Moscow
Calcutta
Los Angeles
12.0
8.0
6.0
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.0
Population (in millions) Population (in millions)
Figure 16.10 Worlds Largest
Urban Areas: 1950, 2000.
This figure compares the worlds
largest urban areas in 1950 and
2000. What is the most surprising
aspect of these data to you?
Source: Populati on Di vi si on of the
UN Secretari at Esti mate.
central-city dilemma
conce ntration of pe ople in
ne e d of public se rvice s
without tax base ge ne rate d
mone y to provide for the m
Student Web Ac tivity
Visit the Sociology and
You Web site at
soc.glencoe.com and click on
Chapter 16Student Web
Activities for an activity on
suburbanization.
the ci ty. Some parts of i nner ci ti es are bei ng re-
stored through gentrification the development
of low-i ncome areas by mi ddle-class home buy-
ers, landlords, and professi onal developers.
Fi nally, there i s a fai rly si gni fi cant movement of
whi tes back to the central ci ty. Thi s movement i s
parti cularly evi dent among baby boomers who
are remai ni ng si ngle or establi shi ng chi ldless or
two-i ncome fami li es. Because these people are
not as heavi ly i nvolved i n chi ld reari ng, they pre-
fer central-ci ty li vi ng more than the previ ousgen-
erati on di d ( Palen, 1997) . The i mportance of these
countertrends for easi ng the central-ci ty di lemma
remai nsto be seen. They certai nly have not been
suffi ci ently i mportant to stop the emergence of
edge cities.
What are edge cities? As stated, i ncreas-
i ng numbers of busi nesses and jobs have fol-
lowed people to the suburbs. I n fact, suburban
downtowns are changi ng the face of urban Ameri ca. An edge city i s a
smaller, more focused, versi on of an urban downtown. I t i s a suburban uni t
that speci ali zes i n a parti cular economi c acti vi ty ( G arreau, 1991) .
Employment i n one edge ci ty may focus on computer technology; employ-
ment i n another, on fi nanci al servi ces or health care. A speci ali zed edge ci ty,
of course, wi ll have many other types of economi c acti vi ti es as well, such as
i ndustri al tracts, offi ce parks, di stri buti on and warehousi ng clusters, and
home offi ces of nati onal corporati ons. Edge ci ti es are actually li ttle ci ti es i n
themselves wi th a full range of servi ces, i ncludi ng schools, retai l sales, restau-
rants, malls, recreati onal complexes, medi cal faci li ti es, and hotels and motels.
Edge ci ti es do not have legal and physi cal boundari es separati ng them
from the larger urban area i n whi ch they are located. Thi s has not prevented
names from bei ng attached to several of them. T ysons Corner i s located i n
northern Vi rgi ni a near Washi ngton, D.C., Los Coli nas i s close to the Dallas-
Fort Worth ai rport, and K i ng of Prussi a i s northwest of Phi ladelphi a. Some
edge ci ti es bear the names of hi ghways, such as Route 128 outsi de of Boston.
1. Gi ve a bri ef defi ni ti on of urbanization.
2. What are two condi ti ons necessary for the development of modern ci ti es?
3. Where are prei ndustri al ci ti es located today?
4. What term do soci ologi sts use to descri be mass mi grati on to the
suburbs?
5. Analyzing Information Do you thi nk prei ndustri al ci ti es can
conti nue to exi st?Why or why not?
edge city
a suburban unit spe cializing in
a particular e conomic activity
gentrification
the de ve lopme nt of low-
income are as by middle -class
home buye rs, landlords, and
profe ssional de ve lope rs
This view of Dallas was taken from
the rooftop pool area of an old
garment factory converted into
luxury apartments.
O ur nati onal flower i s
the concrete cloverleaf.
Lewis Mumford
U.S. novelist

S
ome people find life in the big city so impersonal that they feel no
sense of belonging to a community. Recently organizers in several
locations have been trying to use the Internet to rebuild community
relationships through electronic networks. These dedicat edspecial-
izedvirtual communities use communications technology to link peo-
ple who live in the same area, city, or neighborhood.
Organizers of community networks share the goals of local partici-
pation, community building, and democracy. As with the New England
colonies town meetings, the ideal of the new community networks is
to include everyone. Supporters of the new technology claim that elec-
tronic communications will allow people to reestablish more personal
relationships.
As with all projects involving technology, though, the problem of
electronic stratification arises. Because of the costs
involved, access to technological advances is not
equally distributed throughout the community. Low-
income individuals and families cannot afford com-
puters or Internet access, and public agencies are
not ready to supply sufficient funding. Furthermore,
as computers become more sophisticated, people
who are not already computer literate (especially
lower-income people) will have an increasingly dif-
ficult time catching up. The technologically poor
will become technologically poorer.
The Boulder (Colorado) Community Network
(BCN), established in the mid-1990s, experienced
many of these problems. The founders of BCN
trained many different Boulder groups to use
community networks. They found that accep-
tance varied widely among the groups. For ex-
ample, residents at a local senior citizens home
became avid users of the community computers
placed in their facility. In contrast, a group of
low-income single parents virtually ignored the
existence of the computers and the Internet,
even after extensive training (Virnoche, 1998).
If community networks do become firmly
established, critics warn, the human factor
will still be lacking. When people meet through the Internet, they
have no social clues, such as body language and facial expressions, with
which to learn about their new acquaintances. No matter how much you
learn about another person on-line, critics say, you have not met some-
one for real until you meet in person (Herbert, 1999).
Analyzing the Trends
What do you think will be the most significant effects of virtual com-
munities on social roles?
Virtual
Communities
Virtual
Communities
iVillage.com is a Web site offering a
virtual community for women.
Sect ion
Sect ion
4
4
U
rban ecologists have de-
veloped four major theo-
ries of city growth: concentric
zone theory, sector theory,
multiple nuclei theory, and
peripheral theory. Combining
insights from all four theories
is useful to our understand-
ing of how humans relate to
city environments.
Section
Preview
Section
Preview
The Nature of Urban Ecology
A
lthough every ci ty i s uni que, patterns have been found i n the way
humans i nteract wi th the ci ti es they i nhabi t. Urban ecology i s the
study of the relati onshi ps between humans and thei r ci ty envi ronments.
I n the 1920s and 1930s, soci ologi sts at the Uni versi ty of Chi cago studi ed
the effects of the ci ty envi ronment on ci ty resi dents. They asked such ques-
ti ons as why there are di fferences between areas of a ci ty, how do di fferent
areas affect one another, and what processes change an area. To answer
these and other questi ons, the Uni versi ty of Chi cago soci ologi sts developed
theori es of urban ecology, i ncludi ng theori es of ci ty growth ( Flanagan, 1993;
K leni ewski , 1997; Mi ckli n and Poston, 1998) .
Theories of City Growth
Soci ologi sts focus on four major theori es of ci ty growth. Concentric zone
theory descri bes urban growth i n terms of ci rcular areas that grow from the
central ci ty outward. Sector theory emphasi zes the i mportance of transporta-
ti on routes i n the process of urban growth. Multiple nuclei theory focuses on
speci fi c geographi c or hi stori cal i nfluences. Peripheral theory emphasi zes the
growth of suburbs around the central ci ty. The four approaches lead to qui te
di fferent i mages of urban space. ( See Fi gure 16.11 on the faci ng page.) No
ci ty exactly fi ts any of these i mages, however. I ndeed, the theori es tell us
more when consi dered together than they tell us separately. To understand
why thi s i s so, we must fi rst exami ne each theory.
What is concentric zone theory? Ernest Burgess ( 1925) , li ke other
early soci ologi sts at the Uni versi ty of Chi cago, was i nterested i n the causes
and consequences of Chi cagos growth. Hi s work led to the concentric
zone theory, whi ch descri bes ci ty growth i n terms of di sti ncti ve zones
zones that develop from the central ci ty outward i n a ci rcular pattern. Many
northern ci ti es that experi enced a great deal of i mmi grati on and rapi d growth
developed thi s way.
As i llustrated i n Fi gure 16.11, the i nnermost ci rcle i s the central business
district, the heart of the ci ty. T hi s di stri ct contai ns major government and
pri vate offi ce bui ldi ngs, bank s, retai l and wholesale stores, and entertai n-
ment and cultural faci li ti es. Because land values i n the central ci ty are hi gh,
space i s at a premi um. T he central busi ness di stri ct contai ns a large pro-
porti on of a ci tys i mportant busi nesses partly because the less i mportant
urban ecology
the study of the re lationships
be twe e n humans and city
e nvironme nts
Urban Ecology
K e y T e r m s
urban ecology multiple nuclei theory
concentric zone theory peripheral theory
sector theory
concentric zone theory
the ory that de scribe s urban
growth in te rms of circular
are as that grow from the
ce ntral city outward
ones are unable to compete for the expensi ve space i n the central busi ness
di stri ct.
The central busi ness di stri ct strongly i nfluences other parts of a ci ty. I ts
i nfluence i s especi ally clear i n the zone i mmedi ately surroundi ng i t. Burgess
called thi s the zone in transition because i t i s i n the process of change. As
new busi nesses and acti vi ti es enter the central busi ness di stri ct, the di stri ct
expands by i nvadi ng the next zone. Thi s area may have been a resi denti al
area i nhabi ted by mi ddle- or upper-class fami li es, who left because of the i n-
vasi on of busi ness acti vi ti es. Most of the property i n thi s zone i s bought by
those wi th li ttle i nterest i n the area. Rather than i nvesti ng money i n bui ldi ng
mai ntenance, landowners si mply extract rent from the property or sell i t at a
profi t after the area has become more commerci ali zed. Unti l the zone i n tran-
si ti on i s completely absorbed i nto the central busi ness di stri ct ( whi ch may
never occur) , i t i s used for slum housi ng, warehouses, and margi nal busi -
nesses that are unable to compete economi cally for space i n the central busi -
ness di stri ct i tself. I n short, the i nvasi on of busi ness acti vi ti es creates
deteri orati on for the zone i n transi ti on.
Surroundi ng the zone i n transi ti on are three zones devoted pri mari ly to
housi ng. The zone of workingmens homes contai ns modest but stable nei gh-
borhoods populated largely by blue-collar workers. I n the northern Uni ted
States, the zone of worki ngmens homes i s often i nhabi ted by second-
generati on i mmi grants who have had enough fi nanci al success to leave the
deteri orati ng zone i n transi ti on. Next comes a residential zone contai ni ng
mostly mi ddle-class and upper-mi ddle-class nei ghborhoods. Si ngle-fami ly
dwelli ngs domi nate thi s zone, whi ch i s i nhabi ted by managers, professi onals,
whi te-collar workers, and some well-pai d factory workers. O n the outski rts of
7
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5
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4
2
2
1
1
2
3
4
5
5
3
3
3
3
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4
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8
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Concentric Zone Theory
1. Central business district
2. Zone in transition
3. Zone of workingmens
homes
4. Residential zone
5. Commuters zone
Sector Theory
2. Wholesale, light
manufacturing
3. Lower-class residential
4. Middle-class residential
5. Upper-class residential
Multiple Nuclei Theory
2. Wholesale, light
manufacturing
3. Lower-class residential
4. Middle-class residential
5. Upper-class residential
6. Heavy manufacturing
7. Outlying business district
8. Residential suburb
9. Industrial suburb
Peripheral Theory
1. Central city
2. Surburban residential area
3. Circumferential highway
4. Radial highway
5. Shopping mall
6. Industrial district
7. Office park
8. Service center
9. Airport complex
10. Combined employment
and shopping center
Figure 16.11 Theories of City
Growth. This figure diagrams
the four major theories of city
growth. Discuss one important
contribution each theory makes to
our understanding of urban
growth.
Source: Adapted from Chauncy D.
Harri s, Urban Geography, 1997.
The planners problem
is to find a way of
creating, within the urban
environment, the sense
of belonging.
Leo Marx
philosopher and cult urist

Secondary Analysis:
Gang Violence
Gangs have been a constant feature of the Ameri can urban landscape
duri ng most of the twenti eth century. James Hagedorns research ( 1998) ,
however, led hi m to propose that posti ndustri al soci ety has changed patterns
of gang vi olence. Hagedorns conclusi ons are based on a combi nati on of
three methods: a revi ew of the research of others, secondary analysi s of data
collected by other researchers, and ori gi nal data gathered hi mself.
Gangs ( mostly male) i n the i ndustri al peri od were ti ed to speci fi c nei gh-
borhoods and new i mmi grant groups. Gang vi olence pri mari ly centered on
turf battles among nei ghborhood peer groups. Pri de i n vi olence came from
defendi ng terri tory. Vi olence provi ded exci tement and a sense of place i n a
group. Nevertheless, these worki ng- and lower-class boys would eventually
move on to hold decent jobs, have fami li es, and li ve i n better nei ghborhoods.
Gangs today sti ll tend to form around raci al and ethni c groups and nei gh-
borhoods. Currently, gangs tend to be Afri can Ameri can, Lati no, or Asi an, just
as earli er gangs were formed mostly by European i mmi grants, such as those
from I reland, I taly, or Eastern Europe. Accordi ng to Hagedorn, however,
posti ndustri al gangs are di fferent i n i mportant ways. Fi rst, gang vi olence has
si gni fi cantly i ncreased. Second, gang-related homi ci des have ri sen dramati -
cally. Gang vi olence, he notes, skyrocketed at the same ti me Ameri can cor-
porati ons were movi ng well-payi ng jobs away from the central ci ty. As
legi ti mate work di sappeared i n i nner ci ti es, gangs turned from thei r earli er
terri tori al emphasi s to parti ci pati on i n the i llegi ti mate drug market. The com-
mon outlook of gang members today i s expressed by thi s gang member:
I got out of high school and I didnt have a diploma, wasnt no jobs,
wasnt no source of income, no nothing. Thats basically the easy way
for a . . . young man to beselling some dopeyou can get yourself
some money real quick, you really dont have nothing to worry about,
nothing but the feds. You know everybody in your neighborhood. Yeah,
thats pretty safe just as long as you dont start smoking it yourself
(Hagedorn, 1998:390).
Si gni fi cantly, thi s gang member was not a teenager. Whi le a mi nori ty of
gang members remai n commi tted to the drug economy, most seek legi t
jobs as they approach thei r thi rti es.
Working with the Research
1. Explain why urban gangs tend to form around minority groups.
2. Relate Hagedorns findings on urban gang violence, to
Mertons strain theory, discussed in Chapter 7.
the ci ty, often outsi de the offi ci al ci ty li mi ts, i s the commuters zone, whi ch
contai ns upper-class and upper-mi ddle-class suburbs.
What is sector theory? Not everyone agreed wi th Burgesss theory of
how ci ti es grow. The soci ologi st Homer Hoyt ( 1939) offered another
model sector theory. Hoyts work i ndi cated that growth patterns do not
necessari ly spread out i n ri ngs from the central busi ness di stri ct. I nstead,
growth i s more strongly affected by major transportati on routes.
As Fi gure 16.11 shows, sectors tend to be pi e-shaped, wi th wedges radi -
ati ng from the central busi ness di stri ct to the ci tys outski rts. Each sector i s
organi zed around a major transportati on route. O nce a gi ven type of acti vi ty
i s organi zed around a transportati on route, i ts nature tends to be set. Thus,
some sectors wi ll be predomi nantly i ndustri al, others wi ll contai n stores and
professi onal offi ces, others wi ll be neon stri ps wi th motels and fast-food
restaurants, and sti ll others wi ll be resi denti al sectors, each wi th i ts own so-
ci al class and ethni c composi ti on.
As i n concentri c zone theory, ci ti es are generally ci rcular i n shape. But be-
cause of the i mportance of transportati on routes extendi ng from the central
busi ness di stri ct, the boundari es of many ci ti es form a starli ke pattern, rather
than a uni formly ci rcular shape. The exact shape of a ci ty, however, i s not a
major i ssue i n sector theory. Emphasi s here i s on how patterns of growth are
organi zed around transportati on routes. Ci ti es that follow thi s pattern i nclude
Seattle, Ri chmond, and San Franci sco.
What is multiple nuclei theory? Many ci ti es have areas that cannot be
explai ned by ei ther concentri c zone or sector theory. Chauncy Harri s and
Edward Ullman ( 1945) suggested that ci ti es do not always follow a pattern
dependent on a central di stri ct. The multiple nuclei theorystates that a ci ty
may have several separate centers, some devoted to manufacturi ng, some to
retai l trade, some to resi denti al use, and so on. These speci ali zed centers can
develop because of the avai labi li ty of automobi les and hi ghways. They re-
flect such factors as geography, hi story, and tradi ti on. The ci ty of Boston fi ts
thi s model.
What is peripheral theory? The three theori es of urban growth just
di scussed were ori gi nally developed more than fi fty years ago. Despi te thei r
age, the i nsi ghts of each theory sti ll help us to understand how ci ti es have
expanded from the center outward. Thi s i s especi ally the case for older ci ti es
such as Chi cago and San Franci sco. Many ci ti es today, however, no longer
have a central ci ty core to whi ch other parts of the metropoli tan area are ori -
ented all of the ti me.
Dependence on shi ppi ng, rai lroads, and heavy manufacturi ng has been
replaced by more flexi ble means of transportati on, such as cars and trucks.
And large urban areas are now enci rcled by hi ghways. New technologi es ( fax
machi nes, cell phones, computers, the I nternet) are also looseni ng the ti es of
most parts of the ci ty to the central ci ty core. As a result, many
ci ti es are now ori ented away from the older urban core.
As noted earli er, many Ameri cans have moved from the ci ty
to the suburbs. They have done so i n part because many busi -
nesses offi ces, factori es, schools, retai l stores, restaurants,
health centers are also i n the suburbs. To descri be changes i n
urban areas today, urban geographer Chauncy Harri s ( 1997)
has formulated the peripheral theory. The domi nant feature
of thi s model i s the growth of suburbs ( and edge ci ti es) around
Explain which theory of urban
growth best accounts for this
suburban office building.
sector theory
the ory that e mphasize s the
importance of transportation
route s in the proce ss of urban
growth
multiple nuclei theory
the ory that focuse s on spe cific
ge ographic or historical
influe nce s on urban growth
peripheral theory
the ory that e mphasize s the
growth of suburbs around the
ce ntral city
and away from the central ci ti es. ( See Fi gure 16.11.) Peri pheral theory bri ngs
urban growth research up to date.
Which of these theories of city growth is correct? As suggested ear-
li er, no si ngle theory covers the dynami cs of ci ty growth for all ci ti es. But
each theory emphasi zes the i mportance of certai n factors that cannot be
overlooked by anyone i nterested i n ci ty growth.
Concentri c zone theory emphasi zes the fact that growth i n any one
area of a ci ty i s largely i nfluenced by poli ti cs and economi cs.
Accordi ng to thi s theory, the di stri buti on of space i s heavi ly i nfluenced
by those wi th the money to buy the land they want for the purposes
they have i n mi nd.
Sector theori sts have also contri buted to an understandi ng of urban
growth. As they have noted, transportati on routes have a strong
i nfluence on ci ti es. Deci si ons about the placement of rai lroad li nes had
i mportant effects on the growth of ci ti es i n the ni neteenth and early
twenti eth centuri es. Hi ghways and major streets have an even larger
i mpact now.
Although multi ple nuclei theory i s vague i n i ts predi cti ons, the types of
geographi c and hi stori cal factors i t emphasi zes are also i mportant for
understandi ng any speci fi c ci ty.
Peri pheral theory has brought urban growth research up to date by
emphasi zi ng the development of suburbs around the central ci ty.
1. Provi de a bri ef descri pti on of each of the followi ng zones.
a. central busi ness di stri ct d. zone i n transi ti on
b. commuters zone e. zone of worki ngmens homes
c. resi denti al zone
2. What i s the dri vi ng force behi nd the sector theory?
3. Why i s the multi ple nuclei theory consi dered more flexi ble than the
concentri c zone theory or the sector theory?
4. Summarizing Information Summari ze the evoluti on of ci ti es,
focusi ng on the di fferences between li fe i n prei ndustri al ci ti es and li fe
i n i ndustri al and suburban ci ti es.
5. Applying Concepts Di scuss the major contri buti ons the four theori es
of ci ty growth have made to our understandi ng of ci ty growth.
M en come together in
cities in order to live. They
remain together in order
to live the good life.
Arist ot le
Greek philospher
Revi ewi ng Vocabul ar y

Complete each sentence using each term once.
a. demography
b. ferti li ty
c. fecundi ty
d. crude bi rth rate
e. ferti li ty rate
f. mortali ty
g. crude death rate
h. i nfant mortali ty rate
i. mi grati on
j. doubli ng ti me
k. replacement level
l. urban ecology
1. i s the number of chi ldren
born to a woman or a populati on of women.
2. The annual number of li ve bi rths per one
thousand women aged fi fteen to forty-four i s
called .
3. refers to the deaths wi thi n a
populati on.
4. The annual number of deaths per one thou-
sand members of a populati on i s called
.
5. i s the annual number of
deaths among i nfants under the age of one
per one thousand li ve bi rths.
6. The number of years needed to double the
base populati on i s known as the
.
7. i s the bi rth rate at whi ch a
couple replaces i tself wi thout addi ng to the
populati on.
8. The sci enti fi c study of populati on i s called
.
9. The study of relati onshi ps between humans
and thei r ci ty envi ronments i s called
.
10. i s the movement of people
from one geographi c area to another.
11. The annual number of li ve bi rths per one
thousand members of a populati on i s called
.
12. i s the maxi mum rate at whi ch
women can physi cally produce chi ldren.
CHAPTER 16 ASSESSMENT
S u m m a r y
Sect i on 1: The Dynami cs of Demogr aphy
Main Idea: Demography i s the sci enti fi c study of
populati on. The collecti on of populati on data i s
very i mportant today, i n part because of i ts use by
government and i ndustry. Demographers consi der
three populati on processes when looki ng at pop-
ulati on change: ferti li ty, mortali ty, and mi grati on.
Sect i on 2: Wor l d Popul at i on
Main Idea: Thomas Malthus ( 1798) predi cted that
populati on si ze would ulti mately outstri p the food
supply, resulti ng i n mass starvati on and death.
The demographi c transi ti on theory looks at eco-
nomi c development to predi ct populati on pat-
terns. Whi le the rate of world populati on growth
i s slowi ng, the worlds populati on wi ll conti nue to
i ncrease for many years.
Sect i on 3: The Ur ban Tr ansi t i on
Main Idea: The fi rst prei ndustri al ci ti es devel-
oped i n ferti le areas where surplus food could be
growth. Wi th the I ndustri al Revoluti on came a
major i ncrease i n the rate of urbani zati on. The de-
velopment of factori es was an especi ally i mpor-
tant i nfluence on the locati on of ci ti es.
Urbani zati on i n developed and developi ng na-
ti ons has occurred at di fferent speeds. The Uni ted
States i s now pri mari ly a suburban nati on.
Sect i on 4: Ur ban Ecol ogy
Main Idea: Urban ecologi sts have developed four
major theori es of
ci ty growth: con-
centri c zone the-
ory, sector theory,
multi ple nuclei
theory, and pe-
ri pheral theory.
561
Self-Chec k Quiz
Visit the Sociology and You Web
site at soc.glencoe.com and
click on Chapter 16Self-
Check Quizzes to prepare for
the chapter test.
Revi ewi ng t he Fact s
1. I denti fy and descri be the three populati on
processes. Use a di agram si mi lar to the one
below to record your answers.
2. What i s suburbani zati on?
3. What was Thomas Malthus soluti on for over-
populati on?
4. I n your own words, explai n populati on
momentum.
5. What i s the di fference between replacement
level and zero populati on growth?
6. Li st and explai n the four major theori es of ci ty
growth.
Thi nki ng Cr i t i cal l y
1. Making Generalizations The Uni ted States i s
actually neari ng zero populati on growth
except for the i nflux of i mmi grants. Recall from
your hi story or government classes as many of
the benefi ts and di sadvantages of open i mmi -
grati on as you can and di scuss them i n class.
Do you thi nk i mmi grati on should be a factor i n
consi deri ng methods of controlli ng populati on?
Why or why not?
2. Drawing Conclusions Someti me i n O ctober
1999, the world populati on reached si x bi lli on.
As you read i n the chapter, the populati on i s
expected to reach seven bi lli on by 2010. How
are technologi cal i mprovements contri buti ng to
thi s rapi d growth?
3. Analyzing Information Technology has been
credi ted wi th i ncreasi ng populati on growth. I n
what ways mi ght i t be employed to slow down
the rate of populati on growth?
4. Making Inferences O ne of the great debates
concerni ng populati on growth i s whether there
i s enough food to supply the world. Some
argue that, each year, tons of food suppli es si t
i n bi ns wai ti ng to be used but are wasted be-
cause there i s no way to get the suppli es where
they are needed. O thers argue that we can rai se
agri cultural producti vi ty no hi gher and wi ll
soon be unable to feed the world. What factors
affect the avai labi li ty of food i n developi ng na-
ti ons?I n i ndustri al and posti ndustri al soci eti es?
5. Drawing Conclusions Uni versal educati on,
accordi ng to Thomas Malthus, could be the
great equali zer i n rai si ng the quali ty of li fe for
all human bei ngs. As a buddi ng soci ologi st,
would you agree wi th Malthus that educati on i s
the only real soluti on to current world prob-
lems?Would uni versal educati on really level the
playi ng fi eld for all?Explai n your vi ews.
6. Making Inferences Emi le Durkhei m was con-
cerned about the changes brought on by the
I ndustri al Revoluti on. He studi ed sui ci de rates
and found them to be hi gher i n urban areas.
What factors mi ght contri bute to hi gher sui ci de
rates i n urban areas that would not be factors i n
rural areas?Do you thi nk Durkhei ms fi ndi ngs
hold today, or i s the li keli hood of sui ci de just
as great i n rural and suburban areas?
7. Applying Concepts By U.S. Census Bureau
defi ni ti on, a populati on of 2, 500 quali fi es a
communi ty to be called a ci ty. What are some
factors that clearly di sti ngui sh communi ti es of
2, 500 from places such as Los Angeles and New
York?Do you consi der your communi ty to be a
ci ty i n the modern sense?Why or why not?
Soci ol ogy Pr oj ect s
1. Doubling Time Choose a country and fi nd i ts
doubli ng ti me. Then, usi ng the li brary or multi -
medi a sources, i denti fy reasons for that coun-
trys doubli ng ti me. Consi der some of the
vari ables menti oned i n the text, such as i nfant
mortali ty rate, wars, and epi demi cs. Be pre-
pared to gi ve a bri ef oral report to the class on
your fi ndi ngs.
562
CHAPTER 16 ASSESSMENT
Process Description
1.
2.
3.
2. The Effects of Doubling Time Revi ew the
analogy of the chessboard gi ven on page 538 of
the text. Now, get a calculator and draw a
chessboard wi th si xty-four squares. Starti ng wi th
one person on the fi rst square, start doubli ng
the number of people for each square. At what
poi nt do the numbers become unmanageable?
How does thi s li ttle demonstrati on i llustrate the
effects of doubli ng ti me?
3. Demographic Transition Pi ck another country.
O f the four stages of demographi c transi ti on de-
scri bed on pages 539540, whi ch one best re-
flects the country you chose?What are the factors
that caused you to place the country at thi s stage?
4. Theories of Urban Growth O btai n a map of a
large ci ty i n your area. ( I f you li ve i n a fai rly
large ci ty, use a map of i t.) By looki ng at the
map, can you determi ne i f patterns of growth i n
thi s ci ty proceeded accordi ng to one of the the-
ori es of urban growth descri bed i n the chapter?
I f so, take a marker and i llustrate the patterns
on the map. You mi ght also talk wi th people i n
the ci ty who have some knowledge of how the
ci ty changed over ti me, such as the local hi stor-
i cal soci ety, ci ty clerks, or a local soci ologi st.
Try to fi nd out what growth pattern the ci ty
followed.
5. Social Institutions By defi ni ti on, all communi -
ti es have the followi ng soci al i nsti tuti ons: fam-
i ly, educati on, sci ence/technology, poli ti cs,
reli gi on, sports, and economy. Locate a map of
your communi ty ( ci ty hall i s a good source for
these maps) . Wi th two or three classmates, pi ck
a part of town for the focus of your project. I n
the part of town you chose, take a photograph
of at least one example of each type of i nsti tu-
ti on. For the fami ly, for i nstance, you mi ght
take a pi cture of a house. Look to see how
many of the i nsti tuti ons are i n your chosen
nei ghborhood, and then bri ng back some i tem
or souveni r from each of the i nsti tuti ons, i f pos-
si ble. For example, i f you select a restaurant
( economi c i nsti tuti on) you mi ght bri ng back a
menu. Be sure to ask permission for everything
you take. Present your photos and souveni rs to
the class on a poster board.
6. World Population Growth Talk wi th some
older people i n your fami ly or nei ghborhood
about how the growi ng world populati on has
affected them. Ask them to i denti fy some
changes that have taken place si nce 1960
( when the world populati on was only three bi l-
li on) . Wri te down thei r comments i n the form
of a scri pt, as i f you were i ntervi ewi ng them for
a magazi ne arti cle.
7. Urban Planning Choose three classmates to
joi n you as members of the Urban Planni ng
Board of Bettervi lle, USA. As members of the
Urban Planni ng Board, i t i s your task to joi ntly
desi gn the ci ty for redevelopment. Exami ne the
four major theori es of ci ty growth. Determi ne
whi ch theory or combi nati on of theori es you
would use to desi gn Bettervi lle. Create a vi sual
representati on of your ci ty desi gn ( e.g., blue-
pri nt, chart, arti st renderi ng, etc.) . Wri te a one-
page essay explai ni ng the theory or
combi nati on of theori es that you chose and the
rati onale for your choi ce.
Technol ogy Act i vi t y
1. Wi lli am Juli us Wi lson, a soci ologi st at Harvard
Uni versi ty, has done extensi ve research on what
the text calls the central-ci ty di lemma. The
Publi c Broadcasti ng System ( PBS) sponsored an
on-li ne forum wi th Dr. Wi lson, called A Look
at the Truly Di sadvantaged. Go to thi s web si te
at http://www.pbs.org/newshour/forum/
november96/wi lson_11-29.html and select Why
i s i nner ci ty educati on so poor?
a. What i s to blame for the poor results often
obtai ned i n i nner ci ty schools, accordi ng to
Dr. Wi lson?
b. Now select How can i nner ci ti es be
reconnected to the rest of Ameri can
soci ety? What are Dr. Wi lsons
recommendati ons for solvi ng the central-
ci ty di lemma?
c. Read some of the Vi ewer comments. Do
you agree or di sagree wi th any of the
comments shown there?What do you thi nk
could be done to solve the problems i n
i nner ci ti es?
563
Enri chment Readi ng Enri chment Readi ng
Life Expectancy: Surpris ing
Demographic Trends
by David Stipp
B
aby boomers have ushered i n most
every major trend over the past 50
years. But i t was thei r grandparents
who i ni ti ated the most radi cal demographi c
change of the past half-century a dramati c de-
cli ne i n death rates at older ages. I n fact, about
the ti me boomers were rambuncti ously burni ng
draft cards, thei r elders qui etly began nullifying
actuarial tables. By 1990 there were more than
1.5 mi lli on Ameri cans age 85 and over who
wouldnt have been ali ve i f death rates had
stayed at the 1960 level.
Extrapolating thi s trend, demographer
James Vaupel has made a bold predi cti on: Half of
the gi rls and a thi rd of the boys recently born i n
the developed world wi ll li ve to be 100. Vaupel
si mi larly expects mi lli ons of former flower chi l-
dren to defy federal populati on forecasts and
make good on thei r old chant, Hell no, we
wont go! he has projected there could be
nearly 37 mi lli on boomers age 85 and over by
2050, more than twi ce the governments best
guess. That would mean a much hi gher propor-
ti on of seni or ci ti zens nati onwi de than Flori da
has today. . . .
Vaupel [i s] no shallow vi si onary. A few years
ago many of hi s colleagues scoffed when he
challenged a gri m canon about agi ng. I t holds
that death rates ri se exponenti ally wi th age i n
adult ani mals, i ncludi ng humans the older you
are, the theory goes, the more li kely you are to
di e. Ai ded by other researchers, he marshaled
data on everythi ng from Swedi sh women to
Medfli es to show i t ai nt so; for good measure, he
threw i n supporti ng data on the death rates of
old cars. The team demonstrated that mortali ty
can plateau and, strangely, even drop among the
very old as i f the Fates were noddi ng off after
a long wai t.
Vaupel sees thi s mortali ty decelerati on as a
subplot of a grand mystery that has preoccupi ed
demographers for over a decade: Why have the
elderly been li vi ng longer than thei r forebears
si nce about 1970? Some of the causes are obvi -
ous, such as the averting of mi lli ons of fatal
heart attacks by blood-pressure drugs wi dely
used si nce the 1960s. But many experts on agi ng
feel that such well-known factors cant explai n
the trends surpri si ng speed and breadth. . . .
Casti ng about for explanati ons, some demog-
raphers theori ze that deep, li ttle-understood
changes are afoot that wi ll help sustai n the trend
for decades. Vaupel has stuck hi s neck out far-
ther than most by proposi ng that the agi ng
process may actually slow down i n very old peo-
ple, an i dea based on hi s mortali ty-decelerati on
work. That parti cular i dea remai ns hi ghly contro-
versi al. But Vaupels bullish vi ew that longevi ty
gai ns wi ll conti nue apace i s wi dely shared.
I ndeed, many demographers are now more bull-
i sh than the Soci al Securi ty Admi ni strati on, whi ch
projects that the decli ne i n old-age death rates
wi ll slow to a crawl early i n the next century.
The bulls predi cti ons rai se a burni ng i ssue: I f
we recei ve a gi ft of extra years, wi ll i t turn out to
be a Pandoras box fi lled wi th hobbli ng di s-
eases? For most of thi s century death rates and
the prevalence of chroni c di seases among the el-
Chapter 16
derly have dropped i n tandem. But were bal-
anced on a razors edge, says Eri c Stallard, a de-
mography professor at Duk e Uni versi ty. I f
medi cal advances make mortali ty fall faster than
di sease, well wi nd up spendi ng costly extra
years i n nursi ng homes. O r worse: We may face
the gruesome prospect of poor, di sabled, home-
less older Ameri cans li vi ng out the end of thei r
li ves on ci ty streets and i n parks, warns Edward
L. Schnei der, dean of gerontology at the
Uni versi ty of South Caroli na.
Source: Adapted from Davi d Sti pp, Hell No, We Wont
Go, Fortune, July 19, 1999: 102, 104.
Read and React
1. What i s the surpri si ng demographi c trend
referred to i n the ti tle of thi s arti cle?
2. What has happened to the death rates i n
the Uni ted States si nce 1960?
3. What i s meant by the term mortality
deceleration?
4. What are some posi ti ve and negati ve
effects an agi ng populati on would have on
the soci al structure of thi s country?
averting
turning aside ; avoiding
bullish
optimistic; e ncouraging
canon
an acce pte d principle
or rule
extrapolating
proje cting known data
into an are a not known or
e xpe rie nce d
nullifying actuarial tables
re ve rsing curre nt
population tre nds
Pandoras box
source of many trouble s
(base d on a Gre e k myth
about a box of e vils
re le ase d by a curious
woman who had be e n
instructe d not to ope n
the box)
What Does i t Mean
This active older couple is enjoying
the increasing longevity in modern
society. What are some of the most
important consequences of this trend?

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UNIT 5

536 Unit 5 Social Change

Chapter 16 Population and Urbanization 547

Chapter 16 Population and Urbanization 555

558 Unit 5 Social Change

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