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Generacin de enfermedades
Malestar de la poblacin
Transporte de agua para el consumo humano desde partes lejanas
PROBLEMA:
Los habitantes de la parroquia .. no disponen de un sistema de agua potable
CAUSAS:
Desatencin por parte de las autoridades locales
Escasos recursos econmicos disponibles
Falta de estudios
La comunidad no est organizada
DEMANDA ACTUAL
POBLACIN DE REFERENCIA
POBLACIN DE LA ZONA RURAL DEL CANTN SIGCHOS
CENSO 2001
Tasa crecim
ANIO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
20,722
habitantes
1.10%
No. HABITANTES
20,722
20,950
21,180
21,413
21,649
21,887
22,128
22,371
22,617
22,866
Pn = Po*(1+i)^n
Pn =
X
Po =
20,722
i=
1.10%
19,450
1.10%
ANIOS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
No. HABITANTES
19,450
19,664
19,880
20,099
20,320
20,544
20,770
20,998
21,229
21,462
2,054
1.10%
ANIOS
0
1
2001
2002
No. HABITANTES
2,054
2,077
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2,099
2,123
2,146
2,169
2,193
2,217
2,242
2,267
213
OFERTA ACTUAL
al no existir un sistema de agua potables en la parroquia:
LA OFERTA ACTUAL ES CERO
OFERTA FUTURA
esta oferta tambin es cero
DEMANDA FUTURA
POBLACIN DE REFERENCIA FUTURA
POBLACIN DEL CANTN SIGCHOS
ANIOS
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
No. HABITANTES
23,118
23,372
23,629
23,889
24,152
24,417
24,686
24,958
25,232
25,510
25,790
26,074
26,361
26,651
26,944
27,240
27,540
27,843
28,149
28,459
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
No. HABITANTES
21,699
21,937
22,179
22,423
22,669
22,919
10.4%
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
23,171
23,426
23,683
23,944
24,207
24,473
24,743
25,015
25,290
25,568
25,849
26,134
26,421
26,712
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
No. HABITANTES
2,291
2,317
2,342
2,368
2,394
2,420
2,447
2,474
2,501
2,529
2,556
2,584
2,613
2,642
2,671
2,700
2,730
2,760
2,790
2,821
O. FUTURA
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D. FUTURA
2,291
2,317
2,342
2,368
2,394
2,420
2,447
2,474
2,501
2,529
2,556
D.I. FUTURA
2,291
2,317
2,342
2,368
2,394
2,420
2,447
2,474
2,501
2,529
2,556
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,584
2,613
2,642
2,671
2,700
2,730
2,760
2,790
2,821
2,584
2,613
2,642
2,671
2,700
2,730
2,760
2,790
2,821
No. BENEFICIARIOS
2,291
2,317
2,342
2,368
2,394
2,420
2,447
2,474
2,501
2,529
2,556
2,584
2,613
2,642
2,671
2,700
2,730
2,760
2,790
2,821
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
26.00
25.00
26.00
26.00
26.00
27.00
27.00
27.00
28.00
27.00
28.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
31.00
M3 DE AGUA POTAB
167,243.00
169,141.00
170,966.00
172,864.00
174,762.00
176,660.00
178,631.00
180,602.00
182,573.00
184,617.00
186,588.00
188,632.00
190,749.00
192,866.00
194,983.00
197,100.00
199,290.00
201,480.00
203,670.00
205,933.00
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1,898.00
38,690
RESUMEN NARRATIVO
INDICADORES
MEDIOS DE VERIFICACIN
FIN:
Dismunuir los gastos en salud
que tienen los habitantes de la
parroquia Las Pampas del
cantn Sigchos, por falta de
agua potable
En el 2013, los
habitantes de Las
Pampas ahorran .
Por consumir de agua
potable
PROPSITO:
Dotar a los habitantes de la
parroquia Las Pampas del
cantn Sigchos, de un sistema
de agua potable
COMPONENTES:
1. Empresa para la ejecucin
del proyecto, contratada
4. Planta de tratamiento
condtruida
5. Red de distribucin
terminada
6. Habitantes de la parroquia
Las Pampas organizados
Hasta principios de
septiembre del 2010,
estn instaladas 1.200
tuberas de conduccin
de agua
PRESUPUESTO ($)
ACTIVIDADES:
1.1. Licitacin
1.2. Calificacin de ofertas
13. Adjudicacin
1.4. Contratacin
2.1. xxx
2.2. xxxx
2.3. xxx
3.1. xxx
3.2. xxx
3.3. xxx
4.1. xx
4.2. xxx
4.3. xxx
5.1. xxx
5.2. xxx
5.3. xx
6.1. Covocatoria
6.2. Reuniones y resoluciones
6.3. Conformacin de JUnta de
Usuarios
TOTAL
XX
XXX
XX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXX
800000
SUPUESTOS}
Los equipos er
instalaciones del
Sistema de agua
potable funcionan
adecuadamente
Se entregan de manera
oprotuna los recursos
econmicos asignados
para concluir con
ejecucin del proyecto
Las condiciones
climticas favorecen la
terminacin de la
ejecucin del proyecto
Se entregan de manera
oprotuna los recursos
econmicos asignados
al proyecto
Los habitantes de la
parroquia Las Pampas
apoyan la ejecucin del
proyecto
Las condiciones
climticas favorecen la
ejecucin del proyecto
0.32 dlares
0%
0.32 dlares
M3 AGUA POT INGRESOS ($)
167,243
53,517.76
169,141
54,125.12
170,966
54,709.12
172,864
55,316.48
174,762
55,923.84
176,660
56,531.20
178,631
57,161.92
180,602
57,792.64
182,573
58,423.36
184,617
59,077.44
186,588
59,708.16
188,632
60,362.24
190,749
61,039.68
192,866
61,717.12
194,983
62,394.56
197,100
63,072.00
199,290
63,772.80
201,480
64,473.60
203,670
65,174.40
205,933
65,898.56
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
pob objetivo
2291
2317
2342
2368
2394
2420
2447
2474
2501
2529
2556
2584
2613
2642
2671
2700
2730
2760
2790
2821
ANIO
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
CON. MED
44,903.60
45,413.20
45,903.20
46,412.80
46,922.40
47,432.00
47,961.20
48,490.40
49,019.60
49,568.40
50,097.60
50,646.40
51,214.80
51,783.20
52,351.60
52,920.00
53,508.00
54,096.00
54,684.00
55,291.60
70%
70%
4
10 dlares
5 dlares
50%
2
3 dlares
AHORROS ($)
REC. MED. EXAM. LAB
22,451.80
3,367.77
22,706.60
3,405.99
22,951.60
3,442.74
23,206.40
3,480.96
23,461.20
3,519.18
23,716.00
3,557.40
23,980.60
3,597.09
24,245.20
3,636.78
24,509.80
3,676.47
24,784.20
3,717.63
25,048.80
3,757.32
25,323.20
3,798.48
25,607.40
3,841.11
25,891.60
3,883.74
26,175.80
3,926.37
26,460.00
3,969.00
26,754.00
4,013.10
27,048.00
4,057.20
27,342.00
4,101.30
27,645.80
4,146.87
TOTAL ($)
70,723.17
71,525.79
72,297.54
73,100.16
73,902.78
74,705.40
75,538.89
76,372.38
77,205.87
78,070.23
78,903.72
79,768.08
80,663.31
81,558.54
82,453.77
83,349.00
84,275.10
85,201.20
86,127.30
87,084.27
enfermos
1604
van mdico
1123
10
44920
COMPONENTES
Obras de captacin de agua
Red de conduccin de agua
Planta de tratamiento
Red de distribucin
INVERSIN TOTAL
VALOR ($)
150,000.00
220,000.00
180,000.00
250,000.00
800,000.00
DESCRIPCION
UNIDAD
CANTIDAD
PRECIO
UNIT ($)
CANTIDAD
1
1
1
2
5
R. MENSUAL ($)
300.00
250.00
250.00
240.00
T. ANUAL ($)
3,600.00
3,000.00
3,000.00
5,760.00
15,360.00
HERRAMIENTAS
RUBROS
Carretilla
Palas
Escobas
Pico
..
TOTAL
CANTIDAD
1
2
3
2
P. UNITARIO ($)
V. TIL (anios)
35
2
15
1
5
0.5
15
2
MATERIALES
RUBROS
Cloro
tubera
cemento
..
TOTAL
unidad
kilos
m
sacos 50 kilos
CANTIDAD
P. UNITARIO ($)
334.486
4.48
20
6
30
11
DOTACIN DE EQUIPOS
RUBROS
Uniformes
Guantes
Casco
botas
.
TOTAL
unidad
unidad
par
unidad
par
CANTIDAD
4
4
2
2
P. UNITARIO ($)
50
10
15
40
DEPRECIACIN ANUAL
ACTIVO FIJO
Obras de captacin de agua
Red de conduccin de agua
Planta de tratamiento
Red de distribucin
TOTAL
INVERSIN ($)
150,000.00
220,000.00
180,000.00
250,000.00
800,000.00
D. ANUAL ($)
7,500.00
11,000.00
9,000.00
12,500.00
40,000.00
VALOR ($)
15,360.00
92.50
1,948.50
350.00
40,000.00
57,751.00
57,751.00
16,252.50
ANIO
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
depreciacin
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
2027
2028
2029
2030
19,361.49
19,574.46
19,789.78
20,007.47
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
40,000.00
con depr
COSTO TOTAL($)M3 AGUA POTABL $ / M3
57,751.00
167,243.00
57,953.55
169,141.00
58,150.72
170,966.00
58,350.53
172,864.00
58,552.35
174,762.00
58,756.21
176,660.00
58,962.78
178,631.00
59,171.42
180,602.00
59,382.17
182,573.00
59,595.69
184,617.00
59,810.71
186,588.00
60,028.55
188,632.00
60,249.24
190,749.00
60,472.15
192,866.00
60,697.31
194,983.00
60,924.73
197,100.00
61,155.10
199,290.00
61,387.78
201,480.00
61,622.81
203,670.00
61,860.86
205,933.00
promedio
0.345
0.343
0.340
0.338
0.335
0.333
0.330
0.328
0.325
0.323
0.321
0.318
0.316
0.314
0.311
0.309
0.307
0.305
0.303
0.300
0.320
PRECIO
TOTAL ($)
P. TOTAL ($)
17.5
30
30
15
92.5
ANIOS
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
P. TOTAL ($)
200
40
30
80
350
17,751.00
costo cloro
1,498.50
1,522.27
1,538.69
1,555.78
1,572.86
1,589.94
1,607.68
1,625.42
1,643.16
1,661.55
1,679.29
1,697.69
1,716.74
1,735.79
1,754.85
1,773.90
total
57,751.00
57,953.55
58,150.72
58,350.53
58,552.35
58,756.21
58,962.78
59,171.42
59,382.17
59,595.69
59,810.71
60,028.55
60,249.24
60,472.15
60,697.31
60,924.73
para el flujo
costo anual
sin depreciacin
17,751.00
17,953.55
18,150.72
18,350.53
18,552.35
18,756.21
18,962.78
19,171.42
19,382.17
19,595.69
19,810.71
20,028.55
20,249.24
20,472.15
20,697.31
20,924.73
1,793.61
1,813.32
1,833.03
1,853.40
sin dep
$ / M3
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.110
61,155.10
61,387.78
61,622.81
61,860.86
21,155.10
21,387.78
21,622.81
21,860.86
178631
180602
182573
184617
186588
188632
190749
192866
194983
197100
199290
201480
203670
205933
1,607.68
1,625.42
1,643.16
1,661.55
1,679.29
1,697.69
1,716.74
1,735.79
1,754.85
1,773.90
1,793.61
1,813.32
1,833.03
1,853.40
INGRESOS
por venta del servicio
valor residual
TOTAL INGRESOS
0
0
-
EGRESOS o COSTOS
Inversin
Costos de O/M
240,000.00
TOTAL EGRESOS
240,000.00
F.N.C (I - C)
tasa de descuento
VA = VF/(1+i)^n
VF/(1+i)^n
VAN =
VANf =
53,517.76
-240,000.00
54,709.12
0
54,125.12
0
54,125.12
0
53,517.76
55,316.48
0
54,709.12
0
0
55,316.48
17,751.00
17,953.55
18,150.72
18,350.53
17,751.00
17,953.55
18,150.72
18,350.53
35,766.76
36,171.57
36,558.40
36,965.95
12.00%
- 240,000.00
45,831.25
45,831.25
TIRf =
14.84%
B/Cf =
1.12
VAN ingresos
VAN costos
31,934.61
dlares
427,722.64 dlares
381,891.39 dlares
28,835.76
26,021.55
23,492.53
ANIOS
5
55,923.84
56,531.20
0
55,923.84
57,161.92
0
56,531.20
0
8
57,792.64
0
57,161.92
0
9
58,423.36
0
57,792.64
0
10
59,077.44
0
58,423.36
0
11
59,708.16
0
59,077.44
0
0
59,708.16
18,552.35
18,756.21
18,962.78
19,171.42
19,382.17
19,595.69
19,810.71
18,552.35
18,756.21
18,962.78
19,171.42
19,382.17
19,595.69
19,810.71
37,371.49
21,205.58
37,774.99
19,137.99
38,199.14
17,279.35
38,621.22
15,598.46
39,041.19
14,078.64
39,481.75
12,712.07
39,897.45
11,469.56
12
13
60,362.24
14
61,039.68
0
60,362.24
61,717.12
0
61,039.68
0
15
62,394.56
0
61,717.12
0
16
63,072.00
0
62,394.56
0
17
63,772.80
0
63,072.00
0
18
64,473.60
0
63,772.80
0
0
64,473.60
20,028.55
20,249.24
20,472.15
20,697.31
20,924.73
21,155.10
21,387.78
20,028.55
20,249.24
20,472.15
20,697.31
20,924.73
21,155.10
21,387.78
40,333.69
10,352.65
40,790.44
9,348.12
41,244.97
8,439.54
41,697.25
7,617.93
42,147.27
6,875.13
42,617.70
6,207.03
43,085.82
5,602.86
19
20
65,174.40
21
65,898.56
0
65,174.40
0
65,898.56
0
-
21,622.81
21,860.86
21,622.81
21,860.86
43,551.59
5,056.63
44,037.70
4,565.25
0.00
BENEFICIOS
Ingresos x venta
Beneficios Valor
Valor Residual
TOTAL BENEF
0
0
53,517.76
70,723.17
54,125.12
71,525.79
54,709.12
72,297.54
55,316.48
73,100.16
124,240.93
125,650.91
127,006.66
128,416.64
17,751.00
17,751.00
17,953.55
17,953.55
18,150.72
18,150.72
18,350.53
18,350.53
EGRESOS O COSTOS
Inversin
800,000.00
Costos de O&M
TOTAL COST
800,000.00
FNC (B-C)
- 800,000.00
106,489.93
107,697.36
108,855.94
110,066.11
VA = VF/(1+i)^n
- 800,000.00
95,080.30
85,855.68
77,481.51
69,949.00
VAN =
VANe =
51,062.32
51,062.32
TIRe =
12.97%
B/Ce =
1.05
VAN beneficios
VAN costos
$ 992,953.70
$ 941,891.39
dlares
dlares
ANIOS
5
10
55,923.84
73,902.78
56,531.20
74,705.40
57,161.92
75,538.89
57,792.64
76,372.38
58,423.36
77,205.87
59,077.44
78,070.23
129,826.62
131,236.60
132,700.81
134,165.02
135,629.23
137,147.67
18,552.35
18,552.35
18,756.21
18,756.21
18,962.78
18,962.78
19,171.42
19,171.42
19,382.17
19,382.17
19,595.69
19,595.69
111,274.27
112,480.39
113,738.03
114,993.60
116,247.06
117,551.98
63,140.01
56,986.07
51,449.31
46,443.98
41,919.86
37,848.59
ANIOS
11
12
13
14
15
16
59,708.16
78,903.72
60,362.24
79,768.08
61,039.68
80,663.31
61,717.12
81,558.54
62,394.56
82,453.77
63,072.00
83,349.00
138,611.88
140,130.32
141,702.99
143,275.66
144,848.33
146,421.00
19,810.71
19,810.71
20,028.55
20,028.55
20,249.24
20,249.24
20,472.15
20,472.15
20,697.31
20,697.31
20,924.73
20,924.73
118,801.17
120,101.77
121,453.75
122,803.51
124,151.02
125,496.27
34,152.50
30,827.13
27,834.06
25,128.03
22,681.93
20,471.16
17
18
19
20
21
63,772.80
84,275.10
64,473.60
85,201.20
65,174.40
86,127.30
65,898.56
87,084.27
148,047.90
149,674.80
151,301.70
152,982.83
21,155.10
21,155.10
21,387.78
21,387.78
21,622.81
21,622.81
21,860.86
21,860.86
126,892.80
128,287.02
129,678.89
131,121.97
18,481.22
16,682.39
15,056.60
13,592.99
INGRESOS
por venta del servicio
valor residual
0
0
TOTAL INGRESOS
53,517.76
54,125.12
0
53,517.76
54,709.12
0
54,125.12
0
54,709.12
EGRESOS o COSTOS
Inversin
240,000.00
Costos de O/M
0
17,751.00
17,953.55
18,150.72
TOTAL EGRESOS
17,751.00
17,953.55
18,150.72
240,000.00
F.N.C (I - C)
-240,000.00
VANf =
45,831.25
TIRf =
14.84%
B/Cf =
1.12
VAN ingresos
VAN costos
35,766.76
36,171.57
36,558.40
427,722.64 dlares
381,891.39 dlares
INGRESOS
por venta del servicio
valor residual
0
0
TOTAL INGRESOS
variacin
11.0%
47,630.81
48,171.36
0
47,630.81
48,691.12
0
48,171.36
0
48,691.12
EGRESOS o COSTOS
Inversin
240,000.00
Costos de O/M
0
17,751.00
17,953.55
18,150.72
TOTAL EGRESOS
17,751.00
17,953.55
18,150.72
240,000.00
F.N.C (I - C)
VANf =
TIRf =
B/Cf =
VAN ingresos
VAN costos
-240,000.00
-
29,879.81
1,218.24
11.92%
1.00
380,673.15 dlares
381,891.39 dlares
30,217.81
30,540.40
AUMENTO
15%
20%
25%
30%
32%
33%
DISMINUCIN
VAN ($)
5.0% 24,445.11
10.0%
3,058.98
10.50%
920.37
11.0% - 1,218.24
24,547.54
17,452.97
10,358.40
3,263.83
426.00
992.91
TIR
13.53%
12.19%
12.06%
11.92%
13.54%
13.10%
12.66%
12.21%
12.03%
11.94%
ANIOS
4
55,316.48
55,923.84
0
55,316.48
56,531.20
0
55,923.84
0
7
57,161.92
0
56,531.20
0
8
57,792.64
0
57,161.92
0
9
58,423.36
0
57,792.64
0
10
59,077.44
0
58,423.36
0
0
59,077.44
18,350.53
18,552.35
18,756.21
18,962.78
19,171.42
19,382.17
19,595.69
18,350.53
18,552.35
18,756.21
18,962.78
19,171.42
19,382.17
19,595.69
36,965.95
37,371.49
37,774.99
38,199.14
38,621.22
39,041.19
39,481.75
ANIOS
4
49,231.67
49,772.22
0
49,231.67
50,312.77
0
49,772.22
0
7
50,874.11
0
50,312.77
0
8
51,435.45
0
50,874.11
0
9
51,996.79
0
51,435.45
0
10
52,578.92
0
51,996.79
0
0
52,578.92
18,350.53
18,552.35
18,756.21
18,962.78
19,171.42
19,382.17
19,595.69
18,350.53
18,552.35
18,756.21
18,962.78
19,171.42
19,382.17
19,595.69
30,881.14
31,219.86
31,556.56
31,911.33
32,264.03
32,614.62
32,983.23
B/C
1.064
1.008
1.002
0.997
1.061
1.043
1.025
1.008
1.001
0.998
ANIOS
11
12
59,708.16
13
60,362.24
0
59,708.16
61,039.68
0
60,362.24
0
14
61,717.12
0
61,039.68
0
15
62,394.56
0
61,717.12
0
16
63,072.00
0
62,394.56
0
17
63,772.80
0
63,072.00
0
0
63,772.80
19,810.71
20,028.55
20,249.24
20,472.15
20,697.31
20,924.73
21,155.10
19,810.71
20,028.55
20,249.24
20,472.15
20,697.31
20,924.73
21,155.10
39,897.45
40,333.69
40,790.44
41,244.97
41,697.25
42,147.27
42,617.70
ANIOS
11
12
53,140.26
13
53,722.39
0
53,140.26
54,325.32
0
53,722.39
0
14
54,928.24
0
54,325.32
0
15
55,531.16
0
54,928.24
0
16
56,134.08
0
55,531.16
0
17
56,757.79
0
56,134.08
0
0
56,757.79
19,810.71
20,028.55
20,249.24
20,472.15
20,697.31
20,924.73
21,155.10
19,810.71
20,028.55
20,249.24
20,472.15
20,697.31
20,924.73
21,155.10
33,329.55
33,693.84
34,076.07
34,456.08
34,833.85
35,209.35
35,602.70
18
19
64,473.60
20
65,174.40
0
64,473.60
65,898.56
0
65,174.40
0
21
0
65,898.56
0
-
21,387.78
21,622.81
21,860.86
21,387.78
21,622.81
21,860.86
43,085.82
18
43,551.59
19
57,381.50
20
58,005.22
0
57,381.50
44,037.70
58,005.22
0
21
58,649.72
0
0.00
58,649.72
0
0
-
21,387.78
21,622.81
21,860.86
21,387.78
21,622.81
21,860.86
35,993.72
36,382.41
36,788.85
0.00
BENEFICIOS
Ingresos x venta
Beneficios Valor
Valor Residual
TOTAL BENEF
0
0
53,517.76
70,723.17
54,125.12
71,525.79
54,709.12
72,297.54
124,240.93
125,650.91
127,006.66
17,751.00
17,751.00
17,953.55
17,953.55
18,150.72
18,150.72
106,489.93
107,697.36
108,855.94
EGRESOS O COSTOS
Inversin
800,000.00
Costos de O&M
TOTAL COST
800,000.00
FNC (B-C)
VANe =
TIRe =
- 800,000.00
51,062.32
12.97%
B/Ce =
VAN beneficios
VAN costos
dlares
1.05
$ 992,953.70
$ 941,891.39
BENEFICIOS
Ingresos x venta
Beneficios Valor
Valor Residual
TOTAL BENEF
0
0
53,517.76
67,187.01
54,125.12
67,949.50
54,709.12
68,682.66
120,704.77
122,074.62
123,391.78
17,751.00
17,751.00
17,953.55
17,953.55
18,150.72
18,150.72
102,953.77
104,121.07
105,241.07
EGRESOS O COSTOS
Inversin
800,000.00
Costos de O&M
TOTAL COST
800,000.00
FNC (B-C)
VANe =
TIRe =
B/Ce =
VAN beneficios
0.0%
- 800,000.00
22,800.76
dlares
12.43%
1.0242
$ 964,692.15
VAN costos
$ 941,891.39
AUMENTO
30.00%
35.00%
35.50%
36.00%
DISMINUCIN
10.00%
11.00%
11.50%
12.00% 5.00%
8.00%
9.00%
9.50% -
VAN ($)
8,290.05
4,012.83
1,874.21
264.40
22,800.76
5,843.83
191.52
2,634.64
8,494.90
1,400.33
690.87
18.58
TIR
12.16%
12.08%
12.04%
11.99%
12.43%
12.11%
12.00%
11.95%
12.16%
12.03%
12.01%
11.9996%
ANIOS
4
55,316.48
73,100.16
55,923.84
73,902.78
56,531.20
74,705.40
57,161.92
75,538.89
57,792.64
76,372.38
58,423.36
77,205.87
128,416.64
129,826.62
131,236.60
132,700.81
134,165.02
135,629.23
18,350.53
18,350.53
18,552.35
18,552.35
18,756.21
18,756.21
18,962.78
18,962.78
19,171.42
19,171.42
19,382.17
19,382.17
110,066.11
111,274.27
112,480.39
113,738.03
114,993.60
116,247.06
55,316.48
69,445.15
55,923.84
70,207.64
56,531.20
70,970.13
57,161.92
71,761.95
57,792.64
72,553.76
58,423.36
73,345.58
124,761.63
126,131.48
127,501.33
128,923.87
130,346.40
131,768.94
18,350.53
18,350.53
18,552.35
18,552.35
18,756.21
18,756.21
18,962.78
18,962.78
19,171.42
19,171.42
19,382.17
19,382.17
106,411.10
107,579.13
108,745.12
109,961.09
111,174.98
112,386.77
ANIOS
B/C
1.0088
1.0043
1.0020
0.9997
1.0242
1.0062
1.0002
0.9972
1.0086
1.0014
1.0007
0.99998
ANIOS
10
11
12
13
14
15
59,077.44
78,070.23
59,708.16
78,903.72
60,362.24
79,768.08
61,039.68
80,663.31
61,717.12
81,558.54
62,394.56
82,453.77
137,147.67
138,611.88
140,130.32
141,702.99
143,275.66
144,848.33
19,595.69
19,595.69
19,810.71
19,810.71
20,028.55
20,028.55
20,249.24
20,249.24
20,472.15
20,472.15
20,697.31
20,697.31
117,551.98
118,801.17
120,101.77
121,453.75
122,803.51
124,151.02
ANIOS
10
11
12
13
14
15
59,077.44
74,166.72
59,708.16
74,958.53
60,362.24
75,779.68
61,039.68
76,630.14
61,717.12
77,480.61
62,394.56
78,331.08
133,244.16
134,666.69
136,141.92
137,669.82
139,197.73
140,725.64
19,595.69
19,595.69
19,810.71
19,810.71
20,028.55
20,028.55
20,249.24
20,249.24
20,472.15
20,472.15
20,697.31
20,697.31
113,648.46
114,855.99
116,113.37
117,420.58
118,725.58
120,028.34
16
17
18
19
20
21
63,072.00
83,349.00
63,772.80
84,275.10
64,473.60
85,201.20
65,174.40
86,127.30
65,898.56
87,084.27
146,421.00
148,047.90
149,674.80
151,301.70
152,982.83
20,924.73
20,924.73
21,155.10
21,155.10
21,387.78
21,387.78
21,622.81
21,622.81
21,860.86
21,860.86
125,496.27
126,892.80
128,287.02
129,678.89
131,121.97
16
17
18
19
20
63,072.00
79,181.55
63,772.80
80,061.35
64,473.60
80,941.14
65,174.40
81,820.94
65,898.56
82,730.06
142,253.55
143,834.15
145,414.74
146,995.34
148,628.62
20,924.73
20,924.73
21,155.10
21,155.10
21,387.78
21,387.78
21,622.81
21,622.81
21,860.86
21,860.86
121,328.82
122,679.05
124,026.96
125,372.52
126,767.75
21
DOLARES
DOLARES
DOLARES
5 EN LOS AOS 1997-1998 LAS PERDIDAS EN LOS ECTORES PRODUCTIVO E INDUSTRIAL FUE DE
6 EN LOS ULTIMOS AOS
DOLARES
DOLARES
DOLARES
EN LOS AOS 1997-1998 LAS PERDIDAS EN LOS ECTORES PRODUCTIVO E INDUSTRIAL FUE DE
EL
12156608
2.10%
cuadro No..
poblacion demandante efectiva anual
numero de habitantes de Ecuador
periodo 2001-2010
n
AO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
N HABITANTES
12156608
12411897
12672547
12938670
13210382
13487800
13771044
14060236
14355501
14656966
12156608
2.10%
cuadro No..
poblacion demandante efectiva futura
numero de habitantes de Ecuador
periodo 2011-2020
n
AO
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
N HABITANTES
14964763
15279023
15599882
15927480
16261957
16603458
16952130
17308125
17671596
18042699
OFERTA ACTUAL
Explicar por que es cero ( la poblacin no recibe un servicio de calidad)
OFERTA FUTURA
Explicar que de no ejecutarse el proyecto, las condiciones actuales se van a mantener
lo que implica que la oferta futura tambin ser cero.
DEMANDA INSATISFECHA FUTURA
AOS
O. FUTURA
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D. FUTURA
14964762
15279022
15599882
15927479
16261956
16603457
16952130
17308125
17671595
18042699
N DE HABITANTES
14964762
15279022
15599882
15927479
16261956
16603457
16952130
17308125
17671595
18042699
MARCO LOGICO
ACTIVIDADES
1,1 NOMBRE DE ACTIVIDAD
1.2
1.3
2.1
2.2
3.1
3.2
4.1
4.2
4.3
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
6.1
6.2
7.1
7.2
7.3
8.1
8.2
INVERSION TOTAL
DESARROOL,LADO EN WORD
DOLARES
DOLARES
DOLARES
DOLARES
DARES METEOROLOGICOS
DOLARES
DOLARES
DOLARES
DOLARES
DARES METEOROLOGICOS
Pn=Po*(1+i)^ n
Pn=Po*(1+i)^ n
D. I. FUTURA
-14964762
-15279022
-15599882
-15927479
-16261956
-16603457
-16952130
-17308125
-17671595
-18042699
servadores mejoradas
RESUMEN NARRATIVO
FIN
disminuir en la poblacion
ecuatoriana los efectos
adversos generados por los
fenomenos
hidrometeorologicos.
PROPOSITO
7.1
7.2
7.3
8.1
8.2
INVERSION TOTAL
EN
DOLARES
USTRIAL FUE DE
DOLARES
TECNOLOGIA OBSOLETA
EN
30 DOLARES
60 DOLARES
46 DOLARES
DOLARES
USTRIAL FUE DE
DOLARES
TECNOLOGIA OBSOLETA
30 DOLARES
60 DOLARES
46 DOLARES
CION DE LA MISMA.
INDICADORES
rdel ao 2014 disminuir en x% las perdidas de vidas humanas con respecto a lo ocurrido en el ao 1997-1998
a partir del 2014 las perdidas en el sector agropecuario disminuiran en un Y% respecto a las obtenidas en los aos 1997-198
generar como porposito no alcanzado.
hasta fiones del 2013 el pais cuenta con un sistema de alerta hidrometeorologica.
hasta fines del 2012 esta deconcentrado los porcesos y funciones del inamhi.
hasta fines del ao 2012 el pais cuenta con un sistema de alerta hidrometeorologica
hasta fines del 2011 estan capacitados 60 observadores
hasta mediados del 2011, las remuneraciones de los observadores se han incrementado en un 300%
hasta mfines de 2013 , se dispone de una base de datos moderna.
hasta mfines de 2013 , se dispone de una base de datos moderna.
hasta fines 2012 se han instalado 3 radares meteorologicos
hasta finales del 2011 se han desarrollado xxxxx eventos para consienciar a las autoridadescompetentes.
hasta finales del 2011 se han difundidio ejecutado un plan de difucion para la ciudadadnia
xxx dolares
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
XXX
ON CALCULADA EN WORD.
A DE LA INSTRUMENTACION
ON CALCULADA EN WORD.
MEDIOS DE VERIFICACION
contabilidad de la institucion
SUPUESTOS.
contabilidad de la institucion
Externas
Componentes/Rublos
Crdito
1. Construir canchas
deportivas.
1.1 Replanteo y nivelacin
1.2 Empedrado de las canchas
1.3 Hormigonado
canchas
de
las
2. Instalar modulos
juegos infantiles
de
1.4 Cerramiento
Cooperacin
Crdito
6.3
FUENTES DE FINANCIAMIENTO (dlares)
Internas
Fiscales
R . Propios
Apoyo
Comu-nidad.
TOTAL
Componentes/Rublos
1. Construir canchas deportivas.
2000.00
2000.00
8000.00
8000.00
2000.00
2000.00
76160.00
76160.00
1.4 Cerramiento
2. Instalar modulos de juegos infantiles
11520.00
11520.00
7680.00
7680.00
360.00
360.00
900.00
900.00
15000.00
15000.00
123620.00
123620.00
Mes 1
TOTAL
Mes 2
2000.00
2000.00
8000.00
4000.00
4000.00
2000.00
1000.00
1000.00
76160.00
25386.67
25386.67
11520.00
11520.00
3840.00
7680.00
360.00
450.00
900.00
ES PARCIALES
ES ACUMULADOS
ENTAJES PARCIALES (%)
ENTAJES ACUMULADOS (%)
15000.00
5000.00
5000.00
48906.67
48906.67
39.56
39.56
39676.67
88583.33
32.10
71.66
123620.00
Mes 3
25386.67
3840.00
360.00
450.00
5000.00
35036.67
123620.00
28.34
100.00
DATOS
Consulta
mdica=
Receta
mdica=
Transporte=
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Poblacin
Objetivo
18378.0
18745.6
19120.5
19502.9
19892.9
20290.8
20696.6
21110.5
21532.8
21963.4
AO
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
15
20
10
Consultas
Mdicas
275,670.00
281,183.40
286,807.07
292,543.21
298,394.07
304,361.96
310,449.19
316,658.18
322,991.34
329,451.17
AHORROS ($)
Recetas
mdicas
367,560.00
374,911.20
382,409.42
390,057.61
397,858.76
405,815.94
413,932.26
422,210.90
430,655.12
439,268.22
Transporte a
otros lugares
183,780.00
187,455.60
191,204.71
195,028.81
198,929.38
202,907.97
206,966.13
211,105.45
215,327.56
219,634.11
TOTAL ($)
827,010.00
843,550.20
860,421.20
877,629.63
895,182.22
913,085.87
931,347.58
949,974.53
968,974.02
988,353.51
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Poblacin
Objetivo
18378.0
18745.6
19120.5
19502.9
19892.9
20290.8
20696.6
21110.5
21532.8
21963.4
AO
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Costo O & M
4,365.00
4,452.30
4,541.35
4,632.17
4,724.82
4,819.31
4,915.70
5,014.01
5,114.29
5,216.58
NTENIMIENTO
Total
300.00
320.00
145.00
3600.00
4365.00
Datos
Pa=
n=
i=
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ao
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
18378.00 hab
10
2%
Poblacin
18378.0
18745.6
19120.5
19502.9
19892.9
20290.8
20696.6
21110.5
21532.8
21963.4
22402.7
Costos Inversin
Descripcin
Losa deportiva
Cerramiento
Unidad
u
m2
Sembrado de rboles
m2
u
u
u
TOTAL
Total
300.00
320.00
145.00
3600.00
4365.00
Cantidad
4.00
2560.00
50.00
20.00
12.00
20.00
2.00
Costo unitario
3000.00
29.75
10.00
20.00
1600.00
750.00
180.00
Costro Total
12000.00
76160.00
500.00
400.00
19200.00
15000.00
360.00
123620.00
Tasa descuento=
12%
BENEFICIOS
Beneficios
Valorados
Valor Residual
TOTAL BENEF
827,010.00
843,550.20
860,421.20
877,629.63
827,010.00
843,550.20
860,421.20
877,629.63
4,365.00
4,365.00
4,452.30
4,452.30
4,541.35
4,541.35
4,632.17
4,632.17
EGRESOS O COSTOS
Inversin
123,620.00
Costos de O&M
TOTAL COST
123,620.00
FNC (B-C)
123,620.00
822,645.00
839,097.90
855,879.86
872,997.46
VA = VF/(1+i)^n
123,620.00
734,504.46
668,923.71
609,198.38
554,805.67
VAN =
VANe =
4,874,083.46
4,874,083.46
TIRe =
667.46%
B/Ce =
33.46
VAN beneficios
VAN costos
$ 5,024,221.56
$ 150,138.09
dlares
dlares
ANIOS
5
10
895,182.22
913,085.87
931,347.58
949,974.53
968,974.02
988,353.51
895,182.22
913,085.87
931,347.58
949,974.53
968,974.02
988,353.51
4,724.82
4,724.82
4,819.31
4,819.31
4,915.70
4,915.70
5,014.01
5,014.01
5,114.29
5,114.29
5,216.58
5,216.58
890,457.40
908,266.55
926,431.88
944,960.52
963,859.73
983,136.93
505,269.45
460,156.10
419,070.74
381,653.71
347,577.48
316,543.78
ANIOS
BENEFICIOS
Ingresos x venta
Beneficios Valor
Valor Residual
TOTAL BENEF
0
0
827,010.00
843,550.20
860,421.20
827,010.00
843,550.20
860,421.20
4,365.00
4,365.00
4,452.30
4,452.30
4,541.35
4,541.35
822,645.00
839,097.90
855,879.86
EGRESOS O COSTOS
Inversin
123,620.00
Costos de O&M
TOTAL COST
123,620.00
FNC (B-C)
VANe =
123,620.00
4,874,083.46
TIRe =
dlares
667.46%
B/Ce =
33.46
VAN beneficios
VAN costos
$ 5,024,221.56
$ 150,138.09
BENEFICIOS
Ingresos x venta
Beneficios Valor
Valor Residual
TOTAL BENEF
0
0
785,659.50
801,372.69
817,400.14
785,659.50
801,372.69
817,400.14
4,365.00
4,365.00
4,452.30
4,452.30
4,541.35
4,541.35
781,294.50
796,920.39
812,858.80
EGRESOS O COSTOS
Inversin
123,620.00
Costos de O&M
TOTAL COST
123,620.00
FNC (B-C)
0.0%
123,620.00
VANe =
TIRe =
B/Ce =
4,622,872.39
dlares
634.01%
31.79
VAN beneficios
$ 4,773,010.48
VAN costos
$ 150,138.09
AUMENTO
DISMINUCIN
5.00%
20.00%
9.00%
9.50%
50.00%
100.00%
500.00%
1000.00%
VAN ($)
4,773,010.48
TIR
634.01%
ANIOS
4
877,629.63
895,182.22
913,085.87
931,347.58
949,974.53
968,974.02
877,629.63
895,182.22
913,085.87
931,347.58
949,974.53
968,974.02
4,632.17
4,632.17
4,724.82
4,724.82
4,819.31
4,819.31
4,915.70
4,915.70
5,014.01
5,014.01
5,114.29
5,114.29
872,997.46
890,457.40
908,266.55
926,431.88
944,960.52
963,859.73
variacion benef
COSTOS
ANIOS
4
833,748.15
850,423.11
867,431.57
884,780.20
902,475.81
920,525.32
833,748.15
850,423.11
867,431.57
884,780.20
902,475.81
920,525.32
4,632.17
4,632.17
4,724.82
4,724.82
4,819.31
4,819.31
4,915.70
4,915.70
5,014.01
5,014.01
5,114.29
5,114.29
829,115.97
845,698.29
862,612.26
879,864.50
897,461.79
915,411.03
B/C
En nuestro
proyeco no
teniamos
ingresos
31.7908
ANIOS
10
988,353.51
988,353.51
5,216.58
5,216.58
983,136.93
ANIOS
10
938,935.83
938,935.83
5,216.58
5,216.58
933,719.25