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PROGRAMME
INTERIM REPORT ON
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGY
By
Bipul Kumar
(MBF0818)
Submitted to:
AIT-SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, GREATER NOIDA
The first part of paper gives the brief idea about “Infosys
Technology Limited”.
The second part of the paper deals with the tools of technical
analysis which has been applied to analysis the relation between
share price and volume.
At the end of this paper by applying the tools it aims to predict the
future price movement of Infosys technology Ltd. As well as it also
explain the News and their impact on Stock price.
List of Tables
Sl. No. Particular Page No.
Table 1 Management Infosys 17
Table 2 Listing Detail 18
Table 3 Capital Structure 19
Table 4 Share Holding Pattern 20
Table 5 AGM/EGM Detail 21
Table 5 Dividend Details 23
Table 6 Bonus History 24
Table 7 Split History 24
Table 8 Competition 25
Table 9 Historical Price 26
Table 10 News Analysis 51
Table 11 Block Deals 64
Table 11 Option Price 64
Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it employs, technical analysis
really just studies supply and demand in a market in an attempt to
determine what direction, or trend, will continue in the future. In
other words, technical analysis attempts to understand the emotions
in the market by studying the market itself, as opposed to its
components.
History
its headquarters.
Rs. 95 per share. The share price surged to Rs. 8,100 by 1999
making it the costliest share on the market at the time. At that time,
and Lycos.
Infosys.
Enterprises) award, for the years 2003, 2004 and 2005, being the
only Indian company to win this award and is inducted into the
Infosys was rated best employer to work for in 2000, 2001, and
Innovative Companies.
From December 2008 till April 2009, Infosys has fired over 2500
hit hard by lower revenue from a crisis hit European and North
AIT-School Of Management, Greater Noida - 17 -
American market. On Aril 15, 2009 Infosys reported its first ever
quarter.
• Consulting (CS)
• Enterprise Solutions (ES): ERP, CRM, HCM, SCM, BI/DW,
BPM-EAI
• Infrastructure Management Services (IMS)
• Product Engineering and Validation Services (PEVS)
• Systems Integration (SI)
• Finacle : Core Banking Product
K Dinesh Director
Name Designation
Listing On
Listed On The Stock Exchange, Mumbai, National
Stock Exchange of India Ltd., NASDAQ
Stock Exchange
AIT-School Of Management, Greater Noida - 20 -
Source : Religare Technova
Table 1
Infosys Technologies
Capital Structure
Period Instrument --- CAPITAL (Rs. cr) --- - PAI D U P-
From To Authorised Issued Shares (nos) Face Value Capital
2008 2009 Equity Share 214.75 214.75 572830043 5 214.75
Table 2
Dividends Declared
AIT-School Of Management, Greater Noida - 25 -
Announcement Effective Dividend Dividend Remarks
Date Date Type (%)
15-04-09 04-06-09 Final 270.00 -
25-09-08 16-10-08 Interim 200.00 -
15-04-08 29-05-08 Final 545.00 (Final Dividend 145% +
Special Dividend 400%)
26-09-07 18-10-07 Interim 120.00 -
13-04-07 06-06-07 Final 130.00 AGM
28-09-06 19-10-06 Interim 100.00 -
14-04-06 25-05-06 Final 770.00 Silver Jubilee special
dividend of Rs. 30 per
share (600% on par
value of Rs. 5 per
share) & final dividend
of Rs. 8.50/- per share
(170% on an equity
share par value Rs.
5/-).
23-09-05 17-10-05 Interim 130.00 -
14-04-05 01-06-05 Final 130.00 Final dividend of Rs.
6.50 per share (130%
on an equity share par
value Rs. 5/-).
01-10-04 18-10-04 Interim 100.00 (100% on a par value of
Rs.5/- per share)
13-04-04 26-05-04 Final 2,300.00 Final dividend of Rs.
15/- per share (300%
on an equity share par
value Rs. 5/-) & Special
one-time dividend of
Rs. 100/- per share
(2000% on an equity
share par value of Rs.
5/-). (Revised)
Table 5
Source : Rel iga re T echno va
Bonus History
Announcement Bonus Record Ex-Bonus Date
Date Ratio Date
30-11-1999 10 5 24-01-2000
Source : Religare Technova
Table 7
Historical Price
Date Open high low Close Volume
28-Aug-09 2,185.00 2,199.00 2,142.50 2,187.65 135,164
27-Aug-09 2,180.00 2,202.70 2,121.20 2,189.75 196,202
26-Aug-09 2,105.00 2,188.00 2,098.00 2,181.35 254,324
25-Aug-09 2,068.00 2,104.00 2,041.00 2,096.10 151,542
24-Aug-09 2,041.00 2,082.40 2,041.00 2,076.15 115,593
21-Aug-09 1,993.05 2,036.15 1,972.00 2,028.50 232,789
20-Aug-09 1,970.40 1,995.00 1,955.05 1,992.80 219,033
19-Aug-09 1,985.00 1,988.00 1,936.00 1,950.70 150,657
18-Aug-09 1,974.95 1,999.00 1,957.00 1,971.40 145,082
17-Aug-09 2,015.00 2,018.70 1,971.25 1,983.05 105,485
14-Aug-09 2,060.00 2,064.00 2,026.05 2,039.85 63,697
12-Aug-09 2,080.00 2,080.00 2,000.00 2,042.75 70,493
Resistance
Support
Figure 2
1st June – 30th June +174.9 (10.92%)
Resistance
Support
Figure 3
1st July – 31st July, 2009 +287 (16.15%)
Support
Figure 4
Resistance
Support
Figure 5
Original
%chang in
sl no. Date Open Close Chang in
price
price
28
-
Figure 6
5/ Au
4/
2
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
25 g-0
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
00 -A 9
9 u
5/ 20 g-0
1 1/ -A 9
20 u
09 17 g-0
5/ -A 9
18 ug
/ 11 -
20 -A 09
09 ug
5/ 6- -09
25 Au
/ 20 g
09 31 -09
-J
ul
6/
1 /2
28 -09
-J
00 u
9 23 l-09
-J
6/
8/ u
2 20 l-09
00 -J
9 u
6/ 15 l-09
15 -J
/ 20 u
09 10 l-09
-J
6/ ul
2 2/ -
20 7- 09
Ju
09 l-0
6/ 1- 9
2 9/
Ju
20 26 l-0
-J 9
09 u
23 n-0
7/ -J 9
6 u
Date
/2
Volume
Date
00 18 n-0
9 -J 9
7/ u
13 15 n-0
/ 20 -J 9
u
Opening and Closing
09 10 n-0
7/ -J 9
20 un
/ 20 5- -09
09 Ju
7/ n
2 7/
2- -09
Ju
20
0 9
28 n-0
-M 9
8/ 25 ay-
3/ -M 09
2 00
9 20 ay-
8/ -M 09
10 a
/ 20 15 y-0
09 -M 9
- 37 -
Open
Volume
Close
Interpretation
On an average the difference between opening and closing price is Rs.5. However it moves
between 25-50. The highest difference has been +114 on 4 may 2009, -246 on 19 may
2009, -102 on 11th June 2009. Looking at volume and price charts it is clear that on 19th of
may volume was high but change in price was negative it reveals that there was selling
Open Vs High
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00
High
Price
Open
1,000.00
500.00
0.00
9
09
9
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
00
00
00
00
00
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2
2
4/
8/
5/
1/
8/
5/
2/
6/
3/
0/
3/
0/
/
4/
11
29
27
17
8/
5/
6/
6/
7/
1
2
5/
5/
5/
6/
6/
6/
7/
7/
7/
8/
8/
8/
Date
Volume
1,200,000
1,000,000
Price
800,000
600,000 Volume
400,000
200,000
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
2
2
0
2
2
2
2
/
/
/
/
/
/
1
4
/
/
4
3
1
6
1
1
1
2
1
2
/
/
/
/
/
/
5
8
5
Date
Figure 7
On an average difference between opening and high is Rs. 35 and the major change was
120,on 4th may, 105 12th may, 132 10th July, and 120 on 20th July. If we closely look at the
chart or difference between high and low than it is clear from data or chart that it moves
5/
5
Figure 8
/4
4/
/2
2
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
00
0
0 9
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
9 5/
5 11
/1
1 / 20
/2
0
0
09
9
Interpretation
5/
5 1
/1
8
8/
/2
20
0
Opening V/S Low
09
0
9
5
5/
/2
2
5
5/
/2
20
0
0
09
9
6
6/
/1
1/
/2
2
0
00
0 9
9
6
6/
/8
8/
/2
2
0
00
0 9
9
6
6/
/1 1
5
5/
/2 20
0
0
09
9
6
6/
/2 2
2
2/
/2 20
0
0
09
9
6
6/
/2 29
9 /
/2 20
0
0
09
9
7
7/
/6 6/
/2 2
Date
Volume
0
Date
00
0 9
9
7
7/
/1 1
3
Opening Vs low
3/
/2 20
0
0
09
9
7
7/
/2 2
0
0/
/2 20
0
0
09
9
7
7/
/2 27
7 /
/2 20
0
0
09
9
8
8/
/3 3/
/2 2
0
00
0 9
9
8
8/
/1 1
0
0/
/2 20
0
0
09
9
- 40 -
low
Volume
Open
On an average the Infosys technology goes low Rs.35, however the highest difference
(opening-Closing) was Rs 255 on 19 may 2009, 126 on 11th June, 99.95 on 21 July. but it
Sensex
Infosys
we look at the Sensex chart, it must notice that around July Sensex made lowest point
while Infosys did not breach even its June low which itself is higher than its May 2009
low. That shows that Infosys was doing relatively batter than the general market.
Figure 10
Interpretation
Looking at the chart closely reveals that the stock more often than not rose on brisk
trade. On down days, stock eased on low volume. That's a good sign that indicates
that big institutional investors were not dumping the stock during the downturn. The
support from big investors and institutions is a must if stock is to make big moves
upward.
Bollinger Bands
Overview
Bollinger Bands are similar to moving average envelopes. The difference between Bollinger Bands and
envelopes is envelopes are plotted at a fixed percentage above and below a moving average, whereas
Bollinger Bands are plotted at standard deviation levels above and below a moving average. Since standard
deviation is a measure of volatility, the bands are self-adjusting: widening during volatile markets and
contracting during calmer periods.
Figure 11
Figure 13
Interpretation
When the bands lie close together a period of low volatility in stock price is indicated.
When they are far apart a period of high volatility in price is indicated. When the bands
have only a slight slope and lie approximately parallel for an extended time the price of a
stock will be found to oscillate up and down between the bands as though in a channel.
• Sharp price changes tend to occur after the bands tighten, as volatility lessens.
A move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to the other band. This observation is
useful when projecting price targets.
Looking closely at chart reveals that July – August has been high volatility period and
2009 the band tighten in the last hour it reveals that sharp change will be in next day.
Moving Average
Overview
A Moving Average is an indicator that shows the average value of a security's price over a period of
time. When calculating a moving average, a mathematical analysis of the security's average value
over a predetermined time period is made. As the security's price changes, its average price
moves up or down.
Figure 15
Interpretation
The most popular method of interpreting a moving average is to compare the relationship between
a moving average of the security's price with the security's price itself. A buy signal is generated
In this case looking at charts it can be say that one can buy the stock because price rise
MACD
Overview
The MACD ("Moving Average Convergence/Divergence") is a trend following momentum indicator
that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD was developed by
Gerald Appel, publisher of Systems and Forecasts.
The MACD is the difference between a 26-day and 12-day exponential moving average. A 9-day
exponential moving average, called the "signal" (or "trigger") line is plotted on top of the MACD to
show buy/sell opportunities. (Appel specifies exponential moving averages as percentages as
explained on page 170. Thus, he refers to these three moving averages as 7.5%, 15%, and 20%
respectively.)
Interpretation
The MACD proves most effective in wide-swinging trading markets. There are three
occurs. Means still one can buy this share. However it is likely that the
security price is overextending and will soon return to more realistic levels.
Looking closely at 1st chart in MACD is making new low in July while prices
fails to reach new low, means a bearish divergence occurs which can be seen
Momentum
AIT-School Of Management, Greater Noida - 50 -
Overview
The Momentum indicator measures the amount that a security's price has changed over a
Figure 17
Interpretation
Looking at chart closely reveals that in may 2009 momentum indicator reach
extremely high value and then turns down, the same condition is there during
June , July and in August it reach extremely low values , it depict that that a
Figure 18
(Parameter 20, 50)
Figure 19
compare the relationship between moving averages of the security's price with
In this case in the month of July shorter moving average cross above the
looking at the chart it can be say that buying decision in July was not
wrong and again it is likely to cross. Means one can buy this share
28-
Au 1
g- 4.0
09 2,185.00 2,199.00 2,142.50 2,187.65 135,164 -2.65 0 42.50
27-
Au 2
g- 2.7
09 2,180.00 2,202.70 2,121.20 2,189.75 196,202 -9.75 0 58.80
26-
Au 8
g- 3.0
09 2,105.00 2,188.00 2,098.00 2,181.35 254,324 -76.35 0 7.00
Block Deals
Table 12
Option Price
Table 13
Finding:
REASONS:
I. Looking closely at Monthly chart it is clear that last month Resistance become
Support for next month and the same can be predicted for September.
II. 2nd quarter result may be favorable.
Recommendation*:
1. One can buy it
2. Since the maximum price has been ------------ , so in the near future it
may likely to go down, because it has been overpriced.
3. One can hold it for a shorter period.