ThetheoryofprobabilitiesisagreatchapterofStatisticalScience,asthosereaderswhoarestudyingor havegraduatedeconomicsknow.Howeverthepurposeofthiswebsiteisnottowriteanarticleaddressed totheuniversitycommunity,buttoexaminesomebasicprinciplesofthelawsofprobabilitiesthatcertainly dominateanyroulettebettingstrategy.Besides,wemustnotforgetthatphysicalorwebrouletteisa gamebasedonveryspecificmathematicalprobabilities. Firstitwouldbenicetoseewhatthesemathematicalprobabilitiesareandwhatistheprofitexpectedin caseofanypotentialprobabilitybeingtrue. Rouletteisawheelconsistingof37numbers:137of18red18black,18odd18even,18small18 large,3dozens(112,1324,2536)andagreen,zero(0). Whenbettingonanyofthe37numberstheprobabilityis1/37or2.7%,andifwewin,accordingtothe rulesofroulette,wegetbackourmoneyfor36times. WhenbettingonredblackorOddEven,orlargesmall,theprobabilityis18/37or48.65%,andif wewinwegetbackourmoneyduplicated. Whenbettingondozentheprobabilityis12/37or32.43%,andifwewinwegetbackourmoney tripled.

Inbrief,theplayercanplaceroulettebetson2,3,4,6numbersoranyroulettebettingsystem combinationthatcanbechosen,andaccordingtoroulettepayout,hisgainwillbethemoneywageredby thenumberofchancesthathadcoveredandallthismultipliedto36.E.g.ifonehasbet40chipsto4 numbers,andoneofthemwon,thereturnwillbe10x36=360andobviouslytheperformancewillbe 360/40(whiletheprobabilityforprofitwas4/37). Itisthereforeobviousthat,regardlessoftheroulettebettingstrategyfollowed,thecasinohasalwaysa mathematicaladvantageovertheplayerat1/37or2.7%,knownashouseedge. Isthisedgefatalanddestructivetoanyplayer?Itdependsonthekindoftheplayer.Thetruthisthatthis edgeisabeneficialadvantageontheroulettebecausethecasinohasnooppositeonlyoneplayer,but manyhundredsofthousandsandthismathematicaladvantageiswhatmakeitaprofitablebusiness.This doesnotmeanthatthethousandsofplayersthatplaceroulettebetseveryday,endupwiththeircapital reduced,butthatinthelongrunthemoneythelosingplayershavelost,areslightlymorethanthemoney thewinningplayershaveearned. Beforeansweringthequestionofwhetherthismathematicaldisadvantageaffectsplayers,letusrecallsome basicprinciplesofthelawsofprobabilitiesconcerninganyroulettebettingsystem: Thegreaterthesample,themoretruetheprobabilitiesbecome.E.g.10coinflipstheoreticallyshouldgo fivehead5tails,butthesampleistoosmallandit`snotimpossibleeven10timestocomethesameside. Butifweflipthecoin100to1,000or10,000timesitisabsolutelycertainthatasthesamplegrows,the ratiotosswillbeverycloseto5050withverysmalldeviations. Thelawofprobabilities(androuletteaswell)hasnomemoryexceptthatifthepreviousresultsare removedfrompossiblefutureresults.E.g.inabarrelcontaining50blackand50redbeadsifsomeone pulls3ofthem,andall3areblackandhavenotbeenrepositioned,then,obviously,theprobabilitieshave memoryandithasbeenchanged,sinceinthebarrelarenow50redand47blackbeads.Inroulettebets, howeverthisdoesnotapplyandsoeverysubsequentspinoftheballhasexactlythesamemathematical probabilitiesforeachnumber,color,dozen,etc.,regardlessofwhathashappenedinpreviousspins. Theobservantreadersprobablynoticedacontradictionbetweenthesecondandthefirstrule,and wonderhowthelawofprobabilitiescanbefulfilledasthesamplegrows,eventhoughtheroulettewheel andwebroulettehavenomemory.Theansweristhateachspinisnotaffectedbywhathappenedinthe previousspins.Theprobabilitiesarealwaysthesame.Justasthesamplegrowswitheveryspin, mathematicalprobabilitiestendtobeverified.E.g.Ifyouflipacoin100timesandget65head35tails,it iscertainthatthe101stflipchancesareabsolutely50%oneachsideofthecoin.Butitisequallycertain

thatifweflipthecoinanother900timesinordertoreachoursampleto1000cointosses,the65%35% ratethatoccurredinthefirsthundredwillchangeandreachapproximately50%50%. Deviationsintheappearanceofanypotential.Whileitisclearthatinalargesamplee.g.intheexampleof thecointoss,amovingaverageofeachsideoccurrencewillhavepricescloseto+50%(andthegreater thesamplethecloserto50%),insomeportionsofthetotalsample,therearelargedeviations.Justaswe allhaveinourmindsthechartofastockmarketindex.Thismeansthatin1000roulettebetswillcome approximately486black,486redand27zeros.Butatintermediateportionsofthetotalsampleofspins, largedeviationsfromtheaveragecanhappen.Thismeansthesamecolorcanwin15consecutivetimes,in 30spinsofroulettethe25canberedetc. FinallywecomebacktotheinitialquestionofwhetherthemathematicalHouseEdgeisdamningforthe player.Theanswerisyesifaplayerisanaddictedgambler,whoisalwayseagertobet,lackingofany roulettebettingstrategy.Thelawofprobabilitieswillworkagainsthimduetothelargesampleofspinshe placesbetswithoutanyroulettebettingsystem.Conversely,ifsomeoneisanoccasionalplayer,theywill probablynotbeaffectedatallbytherake,becauseofthesmallsampleofspins.Itispurelyamatterof luckwhetherhefallsintoadeviationfromthestandardmathematicalprobabilityinfavororagainsthim. Acarefulobserverofthestatisticsofroulette,cantakeadvantageofthesedeviations,waitingpatientlythe statisticaledgebeinginhisfavor. Thisisexactlythepurposeofroulettecalculator,theprogramforrecordingandprocessingoftheresults ofroulettebetsthatyoucanhaveforFREEbyenteringyournameandemailaddressintherightcolumnof ourwebsite. ButmostoftheroulettecalculatorcanbereadHERE.