Forecasting Technology

Virginia Dorn Justine Olson

Analytics: The Basis of Forecasting

Analytics: the

systematic computational analysis of data or statistics

Previously, predicting what fashion consumers demand was determined by selftitled experts, models based on small data, and focus groups. As the world became digitized, with internet and new technology, compiling data and statistics became easier and more organized. With the new world of big data and analytics, we can collect and analyze far more data about the interactions consumers are having which will show us the individual preferences in great detail. This information can show what will sell in which locations what products have the best performance, what products complement each other how to optimize the customers

Analytics: The Basis of Forecasting

From Google search

queries and GPS signals to transaction records and social media updates, todays information society emits an estimated 2.5 quintillion bytes of data every day. (Kansara) Analytics takes this realworld data and uses it to create predictive models which find correlations, patters, and infer probabilities. Instead of forecasting through hypotheses, we can

Pros and Cons of Analytics

Pros
Numbers show retailers

which directions to push toward, where to push harder, what products will excel. Enables brands to pick promising talent earlier than previously possible Using analytics is fairly new, so companies using them have a leg up on the competition

Pros and Cons of Analytics

Cons
Fashion and style are

about individuality, something that cant be grouped into data. Data cannot replace human intuition.
While data will show

consumer preferences, intuition is needed to tell the full story and to give that surprise factor or serendipity that human nature brings.

Manthan Systems
Serves as the Chief Analytics Officer for

global consumer industries

Helps its customers derive competitive

advantage through data-driven decisions

Headquartered in Bangalore with offices

in US, UK, Philippines, Singapore and Brazil

Manthans client footprint spans 18

countries
Has been part of the Deloitte Technology

Fast 50 list for 5 years running

Finalist at Red Herring awards in 2007,

2008 and 2011

Described as the most innovative

company at the Stevie International Business Awards 2011

Most recently ranked #1 for technology

innovation and for product reliability in the

Future of Analytics
Widespread business culture

reliance on big data Shift from reporting or descriptive data to predictive practices Analytic teams will grow in size and importance across all business departments Currently a lack of structure and consistency with data, we will begin to focus on honing in on variety. Companies of all backgrounds will begin seeking out ways to

WGSN
Launched in 1998

Worlds leading trend forecaster

Provides assistance to designers, buyers,

retailers

WGSN: Global Inspiration

street style

art and cultural trends

celebrities vintage photography portfolios catwalks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4VtQY 7CG_g

WGSN: How do they forecast?

Three stages
Input Identify and document trends Analysis Analyzes and identifies themes called Macro Trends

Output Themes are applied to design and collections

WGSN: Pros/Cons
Pros
Reliable source
Global Perspective Includes Services Core and Specialized

Cons
Anyone can get the

same information More room to grow in specialized services

Apps:

Created by the European brand Pimkie Real time footage of street style in Paris, France, Milan, Italy and Antwerp, Belgium App calculates trending colors

Who uses the technology?

Pimkie
Uses their own research to guide their retail business Pairs up their merchandise with the trending color

Consumers/Trendsetters and followers

Pimkies customers You and me!

Color Forecast: Pros/Cons

Pros
Pimkies business

Cons
Only European trends Not everyone filmed

strategy Instantaneous info on color trends Lots of room for development (trend basis)

in this app is a trendsetter or follower, trends may not be accurate Only computes color trends No Android app

References

Elliot, T. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://timoelliott.com/blog/2012/04/fashionanalytics-social- theperfect-ensemble.html Ferguson, R. (2013, September 24). How analytics is giving fashion a makeover. Retrieved from http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-analytics-is-givingfashion-a-makeover/ (2013). The arc fashion suite: Next season analytics. Retrieved from http://www.manthansystems.com/fashion/ Kansara, V. (2013, May 3). The long view: Big data will change all aspects of the fashion industry. Retrieved from http://www.businessoffashion.com/2013/05/thelong-view-big-datawill-change-all-aspects-of-the-fashion-industry.html Phillips, J. (2013). How will business analytics change in the near future? Retrieved from http://www.information-management.com/resourcecenter/?id=10024267 WGSN. Retrieved from http://www.wgsn.com/en-us WGSNOfficial. (2013, March 13). WGSN Experts - Maria Janssen, Creative Director. Retrieved 2013, October 23. from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4VtQY7CG_g Pan, Joann. (2012, April 18). Color Forecast App Scours Streets For Trends, Shows You What to Wear. Retrieved 2013, October 23 from http://mashable.com/2012/04/18/colorforecast-app/