A Sustainable Blandings Turtle Population in Weaver Dunes Allan Kroyer kral1003@stcloudstate.edu Environmental Studies Major St.

Cloud State University St. Cloud, MN 56301 Abstract: The Blandings Turtle is a long-lived species that has seen a significant decline in past years and now only remains abundant in the northern states. Minnesota has one of the largest populations of these turtles in Weaver Dunes. Research of this population is popular, and it has been predicted that the population can continue to thrive so long as the survival rate of immature Blandings turtles remains high. Introduction The Blandings Turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) has been classified as a threatened species in Minnesota since 1984. Once found abundantly in central and eastern United States, this species is now confined to remote areas in the upper-Midwest. This species is not able to adapt well and keeping a stable population is incredibly difficult, especially with constant degradation of their habitat. Blandings turtles most distinct features would be the bright yellow coloring on its chin and throat as well as its dome-looking shell. They are quite small, averaging only 5.5-10 inches. They find home in almost all types of Minnesotas wetlands, but typically calm, shallow streams or rivers and marshes. Nesting typically takes place more upland commonly in agricultural fields, which obviously poses some problems. Blandings turtles have long life spans, with males commonly living past the age of 70. However, it is their low reproduction rate and low embryo survival rate that makes it difficult for their population to recover. A single female will lay a maximum of only one clutch of eggs per year, typically averaging about 10 eggs per clutch, and only 80%

of all females lay eggs each year. The low amount of eggs produced combined with an average embryo survival rate of only 21% is what put this species on the threatened species list. Protection of this species requires that human impact on them be lessened. Young turtles have a fairly high mortality rate due to road mortality, loss of habitat, and predation. Increasing predation has occurred due to residential areas attracting a host of predators such as raccoons. The percentage of eggs lost to predation has been recorded anywhere from 40% to 100%. Currently, one of the largest concentrations of Blandings turtles can be found in Weaver Dunes located near Kellogg, Minnesota. There has been an estimated population of 5,000 turtles in Weaver Dunes and it has been an optimal place for gaining information on the declining turtle species. Located along the Mississippi River in Southeastern Minnesota, the dunes offer great habitat for the rare Blandings turtle species calm, shallow water allows the turtles to thrive and the dunes themselves are sufficient for nesting. However, human influence is even seen here in the roadway that separates the shallow waters and the nesting dunes. My model shows the intricacy of this population and how unstable it has become due to infringing human influence on their natural habitat. If this turtle population does not have a preproductive, the age from birth to sexual maturity, survival rate of at least 60% their population will see a decline. My model shows the current survival rate of 78% and how the population is not only stable, but thriving. As long as human influence does not impede on their natural habitat we can expect to see preproductive survival rates above 60%, leading to a thriving turtle population.

Methods Using the STELLA software along with much conservation data from the MN DNR and the USDA Forest Service I have represented the population of Blandings Turtles in Weaver Dunes, Minnesota, as seen in Figure 1. Data on the actual population of Blandings turtles in Weaver Dunes is incredibly difficult to come by. However, most researchers estimate there to be about 5,000 of these turtles in the area. This is the initial stock I used, dispersing it amongst three different age groups hatchlings, preproductives (2-20 years), and reproductive (21-100 years) with most of the population being in the reproductive age due to their extensive life span. My model shows the population behavior of these 5,000 Blandings turtles in Weaver Dunes for 200 years. The inflow of births is a complicated flow to measure, as the Blandings turtle species has a very low rate of reproduction. The ratio of males to females is about 1:2.2, so that amount (about 68.75%) was used to determine the reproduction rate. Also to be taken into account is the fecundity rate, or the percentage of female turtles that actually mate in a given year, which is approximately 80%. Therefore, multiplying the number of females by the fecundity rate will give the average number of impregnated females and when multiplied by an average clutch size of 9.8 eggs we have the amount off eggs laid in a given year. Only an average 21% of these eggs will hatch, known as the embryo survival rate. Next, until the age of 14-20 the young female turtles will not yet be mature enough to reproduce. To represent this in my model I have a stock for each year of life until their reproductive age. The survival rate for each preproductive year is 78% and each reproductive year is high at 96% survival. This was done in the model by having an equal amount of preproductives from each age, 14-20, advance each year to becoming a

reproductive turtle. Approximately 14% of turtles from each age between 14 and 20 mature and the other 86% move on to the next preproductive year or they die off (4%). As the turtles advance to their reproductive years they will enter the cycle seen at the bottom of the model the stocks labeled Survive to Reproductive, Reproductives, and Pool of Reproductives. This small cycle had to be mad so the appropriate numbers of reproductives die off each year (4%). As they flow into the Reproductives stock they are held there anywhere from 21-100 years. However, the model does not release the appropriate amount of reproductives each year, so to account for that 4% of the amount released each year flow out and the others cycle through again. Otherwise, large amounts of reproductives would flow out each year. Lastly, to make my model more accurately represent the ebb and flow of a natural turtle population I added randomness to the model. For example, the embryo survival rate of an actual Blandings turtle population can expect a rate anywhere from 0 to 21% because some years predation kills off the entire hatchling population. Clutch size and fecundity were also randomized and this was done because the number of births directly affects the entire population size, which is easily seen in figures 3 and 4.

Figure 1. The figure below shows the population model for the Blandings Turtles of

Surv iv al rate 1st y r Hatchling Deaths Hatchling Population Death at 2 Preproductiv e Age 2 Preproductiv e Age 3 Preproductiv e Age 4 Death at 3 Death at 4 Death at 5 Preproductiv e Age 5 Death at 6 Preproductiv e Age 6

Death at 7

Preproductiv e Age 7

Surv iv e 1st y r

Surv iv e 2nd y r

Surv iv e 3rd y r

Surv iv e 4th y r

Surv iv e 5th y r

Surv iv e 6th y r

Births Embry o Surv iv al Rate

Death at 13 Death at 12 Preproductiv e Age 12 Preproductiv e Age 13

Death at 11 Preproductiv e Age 11

Death at 10 Preproductiv e Age 10

Death at 9 Preproductiv e Age 9 Surv iv e 10th y r

Death at 8

Preproductiv e age 8

Surv iv e 12th y r

Surv iv e 11th y r

Surv iv e 9th y r

Surv iv e 8th y r

Surv iv e 7th y r

Death at 14 Eggs Produced Reproductiv e Age 14

Death at 15

Death at 16

Death at 17

Death at 18

Death at 19 Reproductiv e Age 15

Death at 20 Reproductiv e Age 16 Surv iv e to 15th y r Reproductiv e Age 17 Surv iv e to 16th y r Reproductiv e Age 18 Surv iv e to 17th y r

Reproductiv e Age 19

Reproductiv e Age 20

Surv iv e to 14th y r Fecundity

Surv iv e to 18th y r

Surv iv e to 19th y r

Surv iv e to 20th y r

Clutch Size

Reproduce @ 15 Number of Females Surv iv e to Reproductiv e age

Weaver Dunes.

Reproduce @ 14

Reproduce @ 16

Reproduce @ 17 Reproduce @ 18 Reproduce @ 19 Reproduce @ 20 Continue reproductiv e cy cle

Conv ey or

Total Pop Reproductiv es Pool of reproductiv es

Results The results of my data shows the Blandings Turtle population steadily increasing over the 200 year span when the preproductive survival rate is above 60%. This can be seen in Figure 2, where the steadily increasing and long-lived reproductive population leads to an overall increase in population. However, Figure 3 shows what happens when the average preproductive survival rate is 60%, and we can see an overall decline in the turtle population. Also shown, in Figure 4, is that the turtle population reaches equilibrium at 68.75% preproductive survival. The initial population started at 5,000 turtles but actually dropped to about 1,900 turtles as they went through the model. The final population recorded after 200 years with 78% preproductive survival rate was 8,778 turtles.
1: Total Pop 1: 10500

1:

5500 1

1 1

1: Page 1

500 0.00 50.00 100.00 Time Untitled 150.00 200.00 1:03 PM Thu, Apr 26, 2012

Figure 2. The graph above shows the total population of Blandings Turtles in Weaver Dunes, MN for 200 years when the preproductive survival rate is at the normal average of 78%.

1: Reproductiv es 1: 2: 3000 4000

2: Births

1 1 1 1 1: 2: 1500 2000 2 2 2

1: 2: Page 1

0 0 0.00

2 50.00 100.00 Time Untitled 150.00 200.00 1:40 PM Thu, Apr 26, 2012

Figure 3. The graph above compares the adult (reproductive) turtle population to the number of births each year for 200 years with a preproductive survival rate of 60%.
1: Reproductiv es 1: 2: 3000 4000 1 1 1 1 2 1: 2: 1500 2000 2 2 2: Births

1: 2: Page 1

0 0 0.00

2 50.00 100.00 Time Untitled 150.00 200.00 12:44 PM Tue, May 01, 2012

Figure 4. The graph above shows the results of the turtle population when the average survival rate of a preproductive is 68.75%

1: Reproductiv es 1: 2: 6000

2: Births

2 1 1 1: 2: 3000 1 2 2

1: 2: Page 1

0 0.00

2 50.00 100.00 Time Untitled 150.00 200.00 1:03 PM Thu, Apr 26, 2012

Figure 5. The graph above shows the results of the turtle population when the average survival rate of a preproductive is 78%, the average survival rate in Weaver Dunes, MN.

Discussion The results of my model were not very surprising, mostly because the long-lived nature of Blandings Turtles and the high survival rate, 96% per year, of the reproductive population makes it easy for the reproductive population to climb. It was interesting to see the drastic rise and fall of the overall population, and I found that was mostly due to the Embryo Survival rate. This rate was anywhere between 0 and 21%, some years predation caused no eggs to survive, and yet the population had seen a steady increase. However, my model did show that preproductive survival rate played a large role in the overall stability of the population over a long period. It was predicted by the USDA Forest Service that a preproductive, age 2-14, survival rate of 60% would lead to a decline in population. My model accurately displayed this trend and that with the current preproductive survival rate of 78% we can expect the population to increase continually even when the hatchling population is extremely variable. Yet my model also showed that the turtle population was at just about complete equilibrium when the preproductive survival rate was at 68.75%. This is actually somewhat higher than what the USDA Forest Service predicted, but not far enough to make any significant difference. Perhaps the most interesting thing about this 68.75% equilibrium is that is the same percentage of female turtles there are in the entire turtle population. Perhaps a survival rate of 68.75% ensures that there is a sufficient male to female ratio to continue reproduction. Either way, it has been shown that the Blandings Turtle population can thrive so long as we do not encroach on their natural habitat.

References

Congdon, J. D., and Keinath, D. A.. 2006. Blandings Turtle (Emydoidea balndingii): A Technical Conservation Assessment. Retrieved March 13, 2102, from http://www.fs.fed.us/r2/projects/scp/assessments/blandingsturtle.pdf Pappas, M. J., B. J. Brecke, and J. D. Congdon. 2000. The Blanding's Turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) of Weaver Dunes, Minnesota. Chelonian Conservation and Biology 3(4):557-568. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. (No Date). Emydoidea blandingii. Retrieved March 13, 2012, from http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/rsg/profile.html?action=elementDetail&selectedElement= ARAAD04010 Hamernick, M. 2000. Home ranges and habitat selection of Blanding's Turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) at the Weaver Dunes, Minnesota. MS Thesis, St. Mary's University of Minnesota, Winona, Minnesota. 18 pp. Niziolek, M. 2002. Meadowvale turtle project. Elk River Area High School, Elk River, Minnesota. Retrieved March 13, 2012, from http://blandingsturtles.tripod.com/main/content.html