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I started with all the exhibits BELOW and all of the break even calculations to the SIDE
Net Revenues Cost of Goods Sold Gross Margin Sales, General & Administrative Other Operating Expenses Operating Margin Other Income Net Income Before Taxes Provision for Income Taxes Net Income After Taxes
$50,440,000 $34,803,600 $15,636,400 $9,583,600 $1,412,320 $4,640,480 $151,320 $4,791,800 $1,677,130 $3,114,670
100.00% 69.00% 31.00% 19.00% 2.80% 9.20% 0.30% 9.50% 3.30% 6.20%
Anheuser-Busch Miller Coors Other 2nd tier Premium & Popular Brewers Craft / Specialty Brewers Imports Total
Exhibit 4 Beer Consumption by State (2000 to 2005 Shipments in Barrels) STATE ILLINOIS INDIANA KENTUCKY MICHIGAN OHIO WEST VIRGINIA WISCONSIN EAST CENTRAL REGION TOTAL U.S. Source: Beer Institute
2000 9,038,323 3,954,209 2,517,894 6,761,561 8,493,144 1,274,626 4,741,019 36,780,776 197,609,645
2001
2002
2003 9,108,157 3,905,265 2,490,928 6,774,702 8,760,272 1,348,527 4,855,313 37,243,163 202,586,016
9,165,381 9,268,188 3,947,446 4,021,685 2,486,731 2,564,013 6,695,665 6,854,064 8,601,604 8,682,331 1,311,838 1,360,589 4,784,791 4,890,122 36,993,456 37,640,992 200,146,800 202,605,792
Exhibit 5 Consumption by Type of Beer (2005) Light Beer Premium Beer EAST CENTRAL REGION 18,744,303 7,326,642 % Total 6-year CAGR 50.40% 4% 19.70% -4%
Popular Imported Premium Superpremium (craft and high-end domestics) Total Barrels Source: Extrapolated from Beverage Marketing Corp. Data
-5% 6% 9%
Consumption by Origin / Packaging (2005) Imported Domestic - Packaged Domestic - Draught Total Barrels Source: Freedonia Analyst Report EAST CENTRAL REGION 4,462,929 29,618,974 3,109,174 37,191,077 % Total 12.00% 79.60% 8.40% 100.00%
Exhibit 5: Light Beer Market Shares and Dominant Brands Light Beer Competitive Market Shares East Central Region
Leading Domestic Light Beer Brands Brand Bud Light Miller Lite Coors Light
Natural Light Busch Light Michelob Ultra Milwaukees Best Light Other domestic brands Total
Leading Imported Light Beer Brands Brand Corona Light Amstel Light Labatt Blue Light Other imported brands Total
Case Facts Used in this Scenario Revenues from MM Beer in 2005 Contribution Margin Annual Change in MM Beer Revenues East Central Light Beer Market in 2005 Annual Change East Central Light Beer Market
# Barrels of MM Beer Variable Cost per Barrel MM Beer Increase in Cost of MM Light Beer (If launched)
Is MM Light Actually Launched? Loss of Contribution (only applies if MM Light Launched) Advertising Cost of MM Light (only applies if MM Light is Launched) Incremental Sales General & Administration Costs Initial Market Share for MM Light in East Central Light Beer Market Growth in Market Share for MM Light in East Central Light Beer Market Discount Rate Perpetuity Growth Rate for 'Net Change in Contribution'
2004 9,032,851 3,993,643 2,591,949 6,746,578 8,702,382 1,373,205 4,877,662 37,318,269 204,318,220
2005 9,063,267 3,998,855 2,555,739 6,700,174 8,584,283 1,359,231 4,929,529 37,191,077 203,515,149
Which Represents
% Share of E.C. Beer Consumption from Premium & Popular Brewers % Share of E.C. Beer Consumption % Share of E.C. Light Beer Consumption % Share of 'Other Brand' E.C. Light Beer Consumption
Contribution per Barrel of MM Light # Barrels of MM Light Needed to Break-Even in Two Years
Which Represents
Average % Share of E.C. Beer Consumption from Premium & Popular Brewers Average % Share of E.C. Beer Consumption Average % Share of E.C. Light Beer Consumption Average % Share of 'Other Brand' E.C. Light Beer Consumption
Taking Assumption of Market Change from Assumption Section at top of Spreadsheet Year 2006 Revenues from MMBeer $49,431,200 Contribution from MMBeer $15,323,672 Loss of Contribution (depends on cannibalization assumption) ($766,183.60) Launch Advertising Cost of MM Light Incremental SG&A Total Incremental Costs associated with MM Light East Central Light Market: Assumed Market for Light Beer Market Share for MM Light Barrels Sold MM Light Contribution of MM Light (barrels sold * contribution per barrel) Net Change in Contribution (costs - contribution)
($750,000)
2007
$48,442,576 $15,017,199
($750,859.93)
$0
$1,236,899 ($1,179,285)
$2,572,750 $921,890
1.12 ($1,052,933)
($318,007) $7,074,633
1.25 $734,925
These values indicate that the Mountain Man Light brand of beer will not only be successful launch, but actually excell. The light beer market is growing, and it is in a position to boost the company's sales. The projections for the year two NPV and year 5 NPV show just how Mountain Man beer will be effected by the adding the new brand. Per these calculations, MMBC show launch Mountain Man Light.
Source $50,440,000 31.0% -2.0% 18,744,303 4.0% Exhibit 1 Exhibit 1 Case Fact Page 6 Exhibit 5 Exhibit 5
YES This value depends on amount of cannibalization 5.00% projected $750,000 Case Fact From Page 6 $900,000 Case Fact From Page 6 0.25% Case Fact From Page 6 0.25% Case Fact From Page 6 12.00% These 2 values depend on your assumptions; you do NOT need them for BreakEven 3.00%
$50,440,000
520,000 This was not provided, but calculated by dividing revenue by
$97.00 # barrels
$66.93
$30.07
$4.69
$25.38
5.00%
$766,184 30,188 $750,000 $900,000 65,012 95,200
in MM Beer Sales Next Year Change this cell to 0 to assume no change in market size
NOTE: You may change this to any cannibalization prediction NOTE: your value may be off if you didn't lower projected revs
Using Data from Exhibit 3 Using Data from Exhibit 5 Using Data from Exhibit 5 Using Data from Exhibit 5
-2.0%
$25.38 160,246
or
Using Data from Exhibit 3 Using Data from Exhibit 5 Using Data from Exhibit 5 Using Data from Exhibit 5
2008
2009
2010
$47,473,724 $14,716,855
$46,524,250 $14,422,517
$45,593,765 $14,134,067
($735,842.73)
$0
($721,125.87)
$0
($706,703.36)
$0
$4,013,490 $2,377,647
$5,565,373 $3,944,247
$7,234,985 $5,628,281
1.40 $1,692,362
1.57 $2,506,640
1.76 $3,193,638