Bao Yee a aon ee Stepney resteestoe “MARCHETTI-076 10": A CHECK ON THE EARTH-CARRYING CAPACITY FOR MAN CC. Manciernt International Institue for Applied Systems Arlyi,Lanenburg. Austria (Received 28 October 1978) [Abaract—Moc hasbeen said about the catyng capacity of he earth ad with most contractor ress, 2 the arguments have too ofes been used in the service of prejudices. In ts paper we have: made a ros section ofa world very heavily populate by present standards; examined with a system view the lve of basic necessities pus lsares or his population: and indicated the techology to satisty them. Where problems ofa global level appeared. a gecenginering solution has been sketched, The result of the analy is hat, rom a technologie point of view, x wilion people can live beautifully onthe each, for an united time and without exhausting any primary cesouce end witht overloading the environment. The gle! vew ofthe problems and of ther solutions makes the Aiference and shows that mast of the perceived phyia! mis to growth stem from an inappropriate fre of reference. ‘Alhouph our rest should by no means be interpreted a an invitation to uly, it does cat some doubt onthe relay of resource investigations witin too garrow assumptions about the adaptability of ‘man to changing conditions and transfers the problem ofthe limits to growth wher i belongs to the areas of sciloy. polis and ethics. NUMBER OF PERSONS The figure 10" is based on a somewhat arbitrary maximum density, that of a “garden city” at the level of the globe (see Fig. 1). In practice, the natural trends of a megapolis will push toward zones of much greater densities, leaving the possibility of creating very low density patches of “sanctuaries” where everybody might go when he wished. High densities such as those found in towns are under heavy criticism nowadays as being vastly inferior to the great open spaces of the country (which in the citizen's ideology should be salvaged but should be maintained with @ good infrastructure). This point appears to have escaped the country inhabitants who, since the invention ofthe city, managed to swarm into it 7 a a a a ra fill : | BL nwesmy ' Mal i et é } : Ya Tare os) 90 9H) TaD a0 ‘URBANIZATION TRENDS Fig 1. Urbanization tends n developed counties. nor08 . Mascwere Urbon tiving (7) (900 ee“ Fig.2 Urbanization rendsinU.S.A agisticanalyis In 1915 tbe fraction ol popllivingin cites, Fisequalto m. whenever possible (see Fig. 2). Is that due only to plain ignorance on their part, or is man naturally a city dweller? ‘The great drawback of modern cities is that they are never built to the measure of man; they tend to be a patchwork of “machines to live in where only a limited number of functions is considered essential. Medieval cities may hold the secret of the “human city” where a man will wish to spend all his life; intricate personal links and beauty may be the most important ‘components. Soleri's' and Craven's? teams have produced very interesting projects, respectively, for land-and sea-based (see Figs. 3-5) cities conceived as tridemsional single units. These Fig. 3. A scheme ofan urban srvctre by Soler10% A check onthe earth carrying capacity fr man 18 Fig. 5. Scheme of module ors foting city by Caves. structures may have positive feedback to the global system; the control of temperature and ventilation via proper control of the radiation coupling with the environment may also serve to contro! the albedo, which finally imits the amount of usable energy. DISLOCATION From the point of view of coverage of the earth surface, the Craven project of cities on Aoating platforms makes the ocean equivalent to the land. The Craven city should not be more expensive than its equivalent on land, the platform and the supporting “bottles” being gigantic bat essentially simple structures with multiple functions.