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In this example, a design engineer is given the task of choosing the best material to use for a helical spring. The best material is the one that will give the spring the highest likelihood of withstanding its peak requirements. The likelihood of success, known as the springs reliability factor, can be expressed as the probability that the springs strength (S) will exceed the stress (s) subjected to it: Reliability = p(S > s) In formula cells D17 - D19 above, a reliability factor is computed for three different materials under consideration. These formulas are simply the ratio of material strengths to the peak shearing stress of the spring. Values greater than one indicate reliability; values less than one indicate unreliability. Newer practices in design have led to the use of stochastic methods for computing reliability factors. That is, the variables that affect a components characteristics (e.g. strength and stress in this case) are assigned probability distributions. The use of probability distributions allows the engineer to more accurately reflect the properties of the materials. Since mathematical operations with these distributions are usually difficult, Monte Carlo simulation is frequently used to compute the range of possible values for the reliability factor.
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