To: From: Date: Subject: Action Required:

Ms. *******, Executive Director of Research and Development Phillip Thane, *****, *****, **** March 8, 2013 MythBusters Recommendation Report: The Snowball Effect Approval by March 15th

The following is a recommendation for a new MythBusters episode, in response to your request. As the Mythbusters team strives to investigate myths to entertain such a broad viewer demographic, it is important to focus on examining widely accepted ideas that serve a deeper meaning to the viewers. We have determined that the Snowball Effect fits this description. It is widely accepted that a snowball rolling down a hill will continue to accumulate layers of snow along its path, obtaining a destructive size. The purpose of the episode will be to answer the question: Is it possible to grow a snowball large enough to crush a car, by rolling a much smaller hand-made snowball down a hill? We propose testing methods based on a car commercial by the auto-manufacturer Infiniti. In this commercial, a man rolls a small snowball and allows it roll down a mountain. The snowball grows and upon reaching its destination it is so large that it rolls over a parked car and crushes it. We have devised a set procedure to test this hypothesis scientifically to bust or confirm the myth associated with the snowball effect.

The basic procedure is to make snowballs of varying diameters (0.5m, 1m, and 1.5m) and roll them at three slope angles (slight elevation, moderate slope, and very steep). After rolling the snowball down the hill, the snowball growth is filmed, timed, and monitored throughout the run. From this one can easily determine whether the snowball is increasing in size. To enhance entertainment factor, we recommend placing a car on the path of the snowball to observing whether the snowball could gain the size and momentum necessary to crush the car. There are four main testing methods that can be used. After taking into consideration the main factors of safety, budget, accessibility, and entertainment (viewers ratings), we recommend using outdoor, Ski Lodge, location and corresponding method. This method will provide the best opportunity to obtain results while entertaining the viewers. The viability of several testing options has been summarized in the table below. Each

experimental method option is ranked from 1(worst) to 4(best) for the above mentioned categories.

Executive Summary Table:

BEHIND THE SNOWBALL EFFECT

In physical sense, the snowball effect is the phenomenon observed when a snow ball of a small size builds upon itself and becomes larger. This term has social implications as well that can be perceived from the definitions provided by Wikipedia and the freedictionary.com. According to Wikipedia, snowball effect is a figurative term for a process that starts from an initial state of small significance and builds upon itself, becoming larger (graver, more serious). Thefreedictionary.com defines it as a situation in which something increases in size or importance at a faster and faster rate. . The value of this myth to our society carries greater implications if the myth is to be busted. It would be interesting to see if the figurative use of this term is to survive if the literal meaning is no longer consistent.

Relevance:

After a few days of thick snowfall, the very first thing most people do when they go outside is to make a snowball. The next use of snow is almost always to build a snowman. This requires at least three large snowballs of different sizes. How do you make large snowballs? One option would be to utilize the mythical snowball effect. The idea of the snowball 2

effect is quite simple. After making a small, perfected snowball, it is then rolled down a snow covered hill. As the snowball rolls over the snow, the weight of snowball compresses the snow below it and packs it onto the surface. Packing snow onto the snowball then increases its size as it rolls down the hill. Since the snowball is a sphere, it will change course while rolling to ensure that the surface remains smooth and evenly packed. According to the myth, a relatively small snowball can grow to damaging proportions if rolled down a hill .

ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE METHODS

The following four experimental methods were considered and evaluated using the Experimental Methods Evaluation Flowchart (Figure 1): 1. Indoor Slope: Full scale (Option 1 of Budget Table) 2. Indoor Slope: Down scale (Laboratory) 3. Outdoor Slope: Natural mountain/hill 4. Outdoor Slope: Ski lodge slope (Options 2-6 of Budget Table)

Following the criteria of Figure 1, Option 1 was eliminated because it does not fit the budget. Next, Option 2 was eliminated because it will not be entertaining, while Option 3 is both a safety risk and is likely be inaccessible. Since Option 4 fit the criteria, this experimental location and corresponding method was chosen to be the most viable.

Figure 1: Experimental Methods Evaluation Flowchart

Basic Procedure:

Permission must be obtained from the ski lodge and any additional safety requirements and permits must be accommodated. To prepare for the series of experiments, the car to be damaged must be set about 100m in front of the snowball. A slight path must be created to ensure that the snowball will hit the car. Safety precautions must be followed at all times, including the clearance of the entire slope area below the snowball and removal of the car windows. For each of the following experimental trials, the snowball must be formed (according to the trial diameter specification) by having the MythBusters team pile and clump the snow. 1. Three slope angles: slight elevation, moderate slope and very steep. This will help determine if the slope has to do anything with the snowball effect if it exists. 2. Starting diameters: 0.5m, 1m and 1.5m. The goal here is to create a snowball big enough to damage a car that is 2m across. The different diameters of the snowball are crucial in deciding the consequence of size on the existence of the snowball effect. The snowball growth must be filmed, timed and monitored throughout the run. In the event that the snowball has enough momentum to crush more than just the car, the explosive device must be utilized to terminate the snowball. In addition to the safety precaution, the explosive device can also be used to enhance entertainment. The MythBusters team will still be able to satisfy the viewers who merely want to see explosions.

Details of Location Options

The criteria for choosing locations are accessibility, weather conditions, infrastructure, and available equipment and personnel. The locations that best fit these criteria are Vail, Keystone, and Breckenridge Colorado. Vail is by far the best choice, although all three areas fit the criteria well. Interstate 70 passes through Vail, while Keystone and Breckenridge are within a few miles of the interstate. As a result these three areas are highly accessible by car, and because I-70 passes through Denver air travel followed by a quick car ride is also an option. All three areas are very built up, meaning there are many places to eat 5

and ample lodging. Once there, the chair lifts provide an easy, cost efficient method of transportation around the slopes.

The weather in Colorado is cold enough to maintain snow at least 6 months out of the year with more snow being present at these locations due to high elevations. Vail specifically is on the western side of the valley and snowfall occurs every year. Also, the large ski resorts in Colorado own and operate fleets of heavy machinery that is used to groom and shape ski slopes. These unique vehicles and the personnel to operate them can be rented if required. The large number and variety of broad ski slopes should provide many opportunistic locations in which to test the snowball effect. Should a certain slope not prove to be ideal, there will be other available slopes that can suffice.

Another important aspect of these locations is the pre-existent safety features. Ski slopes are shaped to keep skiers, or in our case snowballs, proceeding down the middle of the slope. Oftentimes the edges of the slopes are also fenced. Most importantly, the ski slopes can easily be cleared of any people and the thick forests surrounding the area will stop any errant snowball from wreaking destruction on the town below.

Safety Concerns

Our research team has given a special attention to safety while conducting this test. The main safety concerns are: A runaway snowball, dangerous car debris and personal injury.

The runaway snowball scenario will be controlled by ensuring a straight path for the snowball with forest, fences, or snow berms on either side of the slope. The end of the slope will have to be into forest where the giant snowball can simply hit trees and crumble away. If this is not an option the myth should not be tested as we do not know how big the snowball could get and as a result how much it will take to stop it.

If the snowball crushes a car it will scatter debris across the mountainside. For this reason the car used will need to have all windows removed to avoid glass shards. Also all the snow 6

around the car will need to be carefully groomed with machinery or with rakes to look for any non-obvious debris.

All personnel present will have radios to allow them to hear the call for the beginning of the stunt so that can get out of the snowballs predetermined path. Also, all personnel will be required to have multiple layers of clothing to protect against the cold and snow boots to prevent slipping.

Required Materials The most important material to obtain is a reserved ski slope that, Includes three possible sections of differing elevation Leads into a lake or a forest Has a reasonable path length to allow accumulation of snowball to destructive size. Once location is secured, the team will have to acquire a destructible car. If this car does not run, a tow must be included in the budget. Additionally, the team will require the following materials: 3. Camera Gear 4. Radios 5. Cold weather gear 6.A light explosive device to embed into the snowball

Required Budget The proposed budget is 7,500 30,000 thousand dollars. The low estimate is based on 10 people staying three nights at Vail Ski Resort (2 people per room), eating three meals a day, driving to location, lift passes for all personnel, and equipment costs. The high estimate is based on 25 people following the same procedure and including heavy equipment costs.

Costs can be reduced by staying four people per room, only buying lift passes for camera crew and cast, and not renting any heavy equipment from the ski resort. This can allow 7

reductions up to 5000 dollars off the high estimate, or 1500 from the low estimate. The budget is dependent on the extreme the producers would like to take the myth to. Smashing a car adds considerably to the budget as does looking for perfect conditions rather than settling for the most available area.

Results and Conclusion

We believe that the snowball myth hypothesis, Is it possible to make a large snowball of car-crushing proportions by rolling a small hand-made snowball down a hill? fits the criteria of safety, budget, and entertainment. To investigate this myth, we evaluated four main testing methods. The indoor full scale method requires a high budget and it will not be fun to watch. The indoor small scale method is budget friendly but the entertainment quotient will be very low. The outdoor (wilderness) method will be budget friendly and fun to watch but it has several accessibility and safety issues. The outdoor (Ski Lodge) method will be budget friendly and will garner high viewers rating. Also, it has no accessibility issues and the safety concerns are very few.

Recommendations

The snowball effect myth can be easily tested in an exciting and effective manner. This unique myth has not yet been busted and could have implications on the weight and perception of the idea of the snowball effect. If a snowball cannot grow to epic proportions, perhaps the metaphor will no longer be used.

Among several options to test this myth, we recommend using the outdoor (Ski Lodge) method since it falls within the budget and will provide an entertaining, viewer-friendly platform. Since minor safety and accessibility concerns are associated with this method, we recommend obtaining all the required permits and following proper safety procedures.